NVIDIA Incredible strength long-term. Is $1100 realistic?NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) gave us a great bottom buy entry last time (October 22) we made a call on it and invalidated the Head and Shoulders pattern (see chart below):
This time we look at it on the 1W time-frame where it is on the 4th straight green weekly candle, approaching the Higher Highs trend-line. The 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level and the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) provide Support, while the 1W RSI is on a Bearish Divergence (Channel Down) but the 1W MACD is about to form a Bullish Cross.
The last we had the above combination of indicators, was February 16 2021. At the time, the 1W MACD failed to make the Bullish Cross and the stock pulled back to the 1W MA50 but when it formed the Cross on April 12 2021, it broke above the Higher Highs. What followed was a 7-month rally to the -0.618 Fibonacci extension.
As you can see, the symmetry between the two fractals is striking. When the MACD Bullish Cross takes place, we would assume a similar rise and the -0.618 Fib target will be at $1100. Is that in your opinion realistic for Q3 2024?
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Nvdasignals
NVDIA Is this CRUNCH TIME for the Head and Shoulders??NVDIA Corporation (NVDA) has technically completed a Head and Shoulders (H&S) pattern, which is a standard market top formation. The price almost touched Support 1 (410.00) on Friday and the Neckline (Higher Lows) of the pattern. As long as those hold, we can be bullish as the risk is low at the bottom while the upside much higher proportionally on Resistance 1 (476.50).
If however the price closes a 1D candle below Fib 1.0 (or even better Support 2), we will reverse to selling as the H&S suggests. Out target will be short-term on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), potentially hitting its extension at 370.00. Technically the H&S target extends as low as the 2.0 Fibonacci level, which interestingly enough, it is just below the 306.15 candle closing of the last day before the huge +25% price gap on the opening of May 25 2023.
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NVDA Great opportunity on the next pull-back of the Channel Up.NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) has been trading within a Channel Up pattern for the past 4 months with the price currently on its middle, consolidating around the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). This price struggle to pick up a rebound, resembles the previous bearish leg of the Channel Up, which after a series of Lower Highs, got rejected to form a new bottom (Higher Lows. The 1D MA50 sideways action as halfway through.
We can see a similar consolidation between the 1D RSI structures of the two fractals. The 1D MACD will give a bullish confirmation when it forms a Bullish Cross, but it may a little after the bottom is in, which means you may catch the uptrend on a slightly later stage. In any case it will give a lower risk factor (technically confirmed signal).
We will wait for the price to approach the bottom of the Channel Up, assuming of course it doesn't break below the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and target $515.00.
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NVIDIA - 200 DSMA and OBV Analysis An analysis of how the 200 DSMA and On Balance Volume can help us frame potential set ups for a Nvidia and what it might do next.
Bullish Case and Invalidation Level
Price is above the 200 DSMA at present and because we are breaking above a recent high on the OBV, this could signal higher highs for price similar to June 2020.
Invalidation Level: This bullish scenario can be invalidated if the OBV breaks below the lower resistance line, in which case we can then expect a revisit of 200 SMA.
Bearish Case subject to change of current trend
If we fall below the 200 DSMA or/and get rejected from the overhead OBV resistance line this would indicate a trend change to the downside and this would look similar to the Oct 2018 signal.
We could arguably be at a similar level to February 2020 (pre crash territory) which resulted in the orange handle price action in the prior cup and handle. A similar move would see use correct down to the 200 DSMA.
In terms of trading, the OBV would be your lead indicator here, if it breaks its trend to the down side breaching the lower resistance line I would exit the trade. Similarly if it holds and reaches higher towards the upper OBV resistance line I would sit on the trade until we reach the line, at which point you could reduce your position and take some profit, or wait for a confirmation of rejection from the overhead line, then de-risk. The point is, these OBV levels should be able to help you make your decision on the trade, it is ultimately your decision.
The chart is fascinating as current price action draws similarities to the Oct 2018 period, the Feb 2020 period and the June 2020 period, all of which were critical market moments. NVIDIA may be turning into a macro asset that can help us determine the overall market trend and direction.
Hope this helps
PUKA
Nvidia's stock has been suppressed by the 4.618 on gold splitNvidia's stock has been suppressed by the 4.618 on gold split
This chart shows the weekly candle chart of Nvidia's stock in the past year. The graph overlays the bottom to top golden section of October 2022. As shown in the figure, the recent high point of Nvidia's stock has been suppressed by the 4.618 position on the gold split at the bottom of the figure! Due to NVIDIA's recent release of its second quarter financial report, its actual revenue was $13.51 billion, a year-on-year increase of 101%; Under non US GAAP, the net profit was $6.74 billion, a year-on-year increase of 422%, directly leading its stock to soar! However, it is not ruled out that there is a possibility of a bullish turn into a bearish turn. In the future, the 4.618 position on the bottom of the graph above the golden section can be used as the dividing line between bullish and bearish positions for Nvidia stocks!
NVDIA Short-term buy signal within the 8-month Channel Up.NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) not only found Support yesterday at the bottom of the 8 month Channel Up but the strong daily rise managed to close the 1D candle above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). Last time it did so was on January 09 2023, on a similar bullish reversal fractal after a Channel Up bottom.
With the 1D RSI also rebounding exactly on the Support level from the bottom of that fractal, we turn bullish again on the stock, targeting the 1.618 Fibonacci extension at $540.00.
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NVDIA Is it late to buy if you missed the +25% jump??NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) closed almost at +25% yesterday and naturally investors who missed the opportunity to buy low might be wondering if it is too late to buy. Technically, the stock is within a 8 year Channel Up on the log scale and following the October 10 2022 Low exactly on its bottom, it has started the new bullish leg towards its top.
The 1W MACD just avoided a Bearish Cross with yesterday's price jump, something that also happened on the week of January 03 2023, which resulted in a relentless rally extension up to today. Our long-term target is $550, which is where the previous two mid-term rally peaks took a pause sideways (35.60% from the Channel's top).
We may potentially see a pull-back (hence an even better buy opportunity) if the 1W MACD eventually makes a Bearish Cross. On March 02 2022, that resulted in a -40% correction to the 1W MA100 (green trend-line), so you may reserve an amount in case this opportunity comes again. Typically during such Channel Up rallies, the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) holds the uptrend. When it broke in the past, the corrections of late 2018 and 2022 started.
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NVDIA consolidating above its 4H MA200. Long-term target $445.NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) broke and closed above its 4H MA200 (green trend-line) last Thursday and in a surprising display of bullish strength, it has managed to hold it as a Support and consolidate. That was the first series of 1D candle closings above the 4H MA200 since January 14.
If this fails and the stock closes 2 or more 1D candles below the 4H MA200, we expect a pull-back to the big support cluster provided by the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and the 1W MA50 (red trend-line). This has been the ultimate long-term Support Zone and buy level since September 2019. At the same time, the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), has turned sideways, and is the medium-term Support level.
The first target is the $346 All Time High and the long-term one is the 1.5 Fibonacci extension at $445.
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