NVDA
Starting Coverage on Nivida (NVDA)Starting with the big picture containing all the price action within Trading View charts.
Based on fib extension levels my long-term green labeled count is my primary. Purple is an alternative, but again, based on fib extensions levels it seems unlikely that purple is the optimal long-term count. Nonetheless, in either scenario, we should be entering a period of sustained downside that even in my alternative count will last years.
I will drill down into the daily and the micro patterns to get at a top for v of V of 5 of (1)
$NVDA S/R flipPrevious ATH on the daily is $480.88, on the 1H chart NVDA has tested this level as support twice in with price action that looks like a spring —> backtest of spring. Still exceeding expectations with earnings even if guidance wasn’t as bullish as people had hoped. Has obviously run up a lot but very strong uptrend and worth a go to get onboard the trend imo.
NVDA in correction sideways.NASDAQ:NVDA has gone through a great rise and we are currently entering a flat correction that should break further downwards given its increase since mid-October so we could see prices from $395 to $300 to see its correction completed.
I am more inclined to see NVDA between $300-$350 in the coming weeks since the moving averages have not yet given a clear sign of a deep correction, but of a lateralization for its distribution process providing the opportunity for trades within the ranges previously established and for the moment we would be entering in shorts for day traders.
NVDA Pullback - Ichimoku Time Analysis
Long time viewer of ideas, first time posting. I am in no way an experienced expert in any sort of Technical Analysis, let alone Advanced Ichimoku theory, but have spent the last two years learning Advanced Ichimoku where I can. Have been practicing general TA for the past 5 years otherwise. Posting this idea is intended to be part of my educational journey, and I would love to hear any pointers/feedback/corrections/questions the community might have for me.
Brief Explanation before technical analysis:
This chart pairs Heiken-Ashi candles with Ichimoku Kinko Hyo Time Analysis. The timeframe is 1y/1d. I marked 8/24/23's high of $502.66 as the beginning of our analysis. You can see it is marked with a red "+" symbol above it.
I created an Ichimoku Analysis indicator in pinescript that:
a) plots additional "+" symbols to mark basic & complex numerical values cited by Kinko Hyo time analysis. These values are essentially predicted "turning" dates where volatility may cause a reversal or reinforce a trend.
b) calculates 4 targets based on prices of wave peaks + valleys.
Now on to why I think we're looking at a pullback.
Techical Analysis:
Price Action:
- Increased strength in downward movements since NVDA's big pop on 5/24/23, which was due to strong earnings. We are forming somewhat of a megaphone pattern. I have lightly highlighted these movements.
Trend Analysis:
Heiken-Ashi candles are great when it comes to visualizing trends. Pairing completed formation of one or more trend breaking candles with other supporting factors (MACD, volume, etc) greatly increases chance of timing reversals, or hopping in/out of existing trends. We have completed two trend breaking candles, and are looking at the potential development of a bearish MACD cross.
Ichimoku Analysis:
- Price breaking and closing below tenkansen + means we may retreat to the kijunsen line at the $448 mark. For confirmation I would like to see a candle both open and close below the kijunsen.
- The orange line below point C is the NT-Target calculated from Points A-C. Seeing that we never reached the NT-Target during this last move, I wouldn't be surprised if we saw NVDA reaching the $375 area in this next move. Friday the 24th was also a date where we can experience a reversal, as indicated by the blue "+" under Point D. Our next "turning" date is 12/20/23.
Speculation & Sentiment:
This is more of how I feel personally, and incredibly simplified. I think that NVDA continuing to report fantastic earnings is nothing surprising to the big money out there. I think big money has been sitting on some amazing gains over the last few months, and they are itching to lock those in. I think the fall on earnings was confirmation to big money that NVDA will continue to be a great investment for them to dump money into, and now that they have this confirmation it's time to find a better entry. By dropping the price, big money can dump more money in later to increase their holdings and, well, make even more money. Isn't that always the goal?
There's honestly so much more to address here, including positioning of the components of the ichimoku cloud, but I've already listed the parts of my technical analysis I feel is most important. I've been trading as a hobby for the past five years and have found that these aspects have worked best for me personally.
TL;DR: (my predictions)
1. "Tis but a flesh wound." We could fall down to and bounce off of the tenkansen (currently ~$448) and continue upwards to the E & V-Targets located at $540 - $560. This should be in motion if not complete by 12/20/23.
2. "Robert it go down." I think this is the most likely scenario. We fall to our NT-Target of ~$375 by 12/20/23. I think after this it is very likely big money starts adding some buy pressure, and we will revisit $500 soon(ish) after.
Has Nvidia finally topped?NVDA just put in a weekly bearish engulfing candle!
This is the first sing of a leading Mega Cap potentially seeing some distribution.
If this bell weather names keeps falling its going to turn the sentiment in the semiconductors slightly more bearish and will weigh in on the QQQ.
NVDA Shares Decline after Strong ReportThe previous historical record and maximum for 2023 (USD 502.66 per share) was set on August 24 against the backdrop of the publication of the 2nd quarter report.
This week, NVidia published its report for the Q3, and again the price set a record high, as the report turned out to be better than expected:
→ earnings per share: actual = USD 4.02, forecast = USD 3.37;
→ gross revenue: actual = USD 18.12 billion, forecast = USD 16.18 billion.
However, after the publication of the report, the NVDA share price shows bearish dynamics — perhaps the information from the company disappointed overly optimistic investors. Or perhaps some market participants used the excitement associated with the publication of the report in order to lock in profits from the 2023 rally.
However, NVDA shares fell 2.6% yesterday after CFO Colette Kress said sales to China, impacted by recent US government export controls, would decline significantly in the fourth quarter.
Thus, the chart of NVDA shares develops a picture that may worry the bulls:
→ The price fell below USD 480 per share yesterday, despite the recently published good report.
→ The price is near the median line of the ascending channel, which describes the market dynamics starting from the gap on May 25 (excluding the second half of October). Moreover, the events of this week show that the median line acts as resistance.
If the price is able to hold above the USD 480 level, this could mean that the CFO's statement caused only a short-term correction, then a gradual increase along the median line would be a sign of a strong market. Otherwise, the price may continue to decline to the lower border of the channel, acting bearishly after the publication of a strong report — just like 3 months earlier.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
NVIDIA is at balance. Here are my long/short scenariosWhen you trade the Model of the Medianlines/Pitchforks, you know now that price of NVDA is at balance.
Why?
It's at the Center-Line.
From here Chances for up or down are equal weighted
Details?
Well, price closed above the CL. This is bullish.
Price usually pull back to it.
Then it should continue to the other extreme, which is the Upper-Medianline-Parallel.
If it fails it's target and instead open and close below the CL, we have a short at hand.
OK, so how could we play either side?
LONG:
After the pullback to the CL, I watch for a upside continuation. I want price closing above a previous candle. Stop/Loss goes below the CL.
Profit target is the U-MLH.
SHORT:
After a open/close below the CL, I'm short immediately and my stop is above the highest Bar above the CL.
Profit target is the L-MLH.
Save trading4all
High-Stakes Trading Alert: Gold, AMD, and NVDA! Risky Trades 🚨 Brace yourself for an adrenaline-pumping trading session! In this video, we're diving into the risky world of trading with three bold ideas: Gold, AMD, and NVDA. 📉📈 Our analysis unveils the potential risks and rewards associated with these trades, providing you with valuable insights to navigate the market. Whether you're a seasoned trader or a risk-taking enthusiast, join us on this thrilling journey as we dissect the charts and strategies for these high-profile assets. Remember, with great risk comes the potential for great reward – let's embark on this trading adventure together! 💼💡 #TradingAlert #RiskyTrades #Gold #AMD #NVDA #StockMarket"
A Deep Dive into NVIDIA's Financial SuccessNVIDIA , a leading player in the world of accelerated computing and artificial intelligence, has once again demonstrated its financial robustness and strategic foresight in the technology sector. The company's recent financial report for the third quarter ended October 29, 2023, reveals a remarkable growth trajectory, emphasizing NVIDIA's significant role in the evolving landscape of computing and AI.
Record-Breaking Financial Performance
NVIDIA's revenue for Q3 reached a staggering $18.12 billion, marking an impressive 206% increase from the same period last year and a 34% rise from the previous quarter. This growth trajectory is not just a testament to the company's innovative products and services but also reflects the increasing demand for advanced computing solutions across various industries.
The GAAP earnings per diluted share stood at $3.71, a more than twelve-fold increase from last year and a 50% increase from Q2. The Non-GAAP earnings per diluted share were even more striking at $4.02, showcasing nearly six times growth from the previous year and a 49% increase from the preceding quarter.
Data Center Dominance
A significant contributor to NVIDIA's success is its Data Center segment, which reported a record $14.51 billion in revenue. This figure represents a 41% increase from Q2 and an astounding 279% increase from the same period last year. The introduction of innovative products like NVIDIA HGX™ H200 with HBM3e memory and the integration of NVIDIA Spectrum-X™ Ethernet networking platform in servers from major tech companies like Dell Technologies and Hewlett Packard Enterprise have been pivotal in this growth.
The Generative AI Revolution
NVIDIA's CEO, Jensen Huang, attributes the company's robust growth to the broad industry transition from general-purpose to accelerated computing and generative AI. The company has positioned itself at the forefront of this revolution, offering comprehensive solutions like AI foundry services and NVIDIA AI Enterprise software. These offerings are rapidly being adopted by various sectors, including large language model startups, consumer internet companies, and global cloud service providers.
Future Outlook and Strategic Moves
Looking ahead, NVIDIA expects its Q4 revenue to be around $20.00 billion. The company continues to innovate and expand its product line, evident in its recent launches in the gaming sector and professional visualization. For instance, the introduction of DLSS 3.5 Ray Reconstruction for enhanced gaming experiences and the release of TensorRT-LLM™ for Windows reflect NVIDIA's commitment to staying ahead of technological advancements.
Diverse Growth Areas
Beyond data centers and gaming, NVIDIA has made significant strides in professional visualization and automotive sectors. The company's collaboration with Mercedes-Benz to use NVIDIA Omniverse for creating digital twins of manufacturing and assembly facilities exemplifies its influence in professional visualization. In the automotive sector, NVIDIA's partnership with Foxconn to develop next-generation electric vehicles underscores its strategic vision.
Conclusion:
NVIDIA's latest financial report is not just a display of numbers but a narrative of a company that is effectively navigating the rapid advancements in technology. With its continued focus on innovation and strategic partnerships, NVIDIA is not just achieving financial success but is also shaping the future of computing and AI. As the era of generative AI takes off, NVIDIA stands as a pivotal player, driving growth and innovation in a world increasingly reliant on advanced computing solutions.
NVIDIA Incredible strength long-term. Is $1100 realistic?NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) gave us a great bottom buy entry last time (October 22) we made a call on it and invalidated the Head and Shoulders pattern (see chart below):
This time we look at it on the 1W time-frame where it is on the 4th straight green weekly candle, approaching the Higher Highs trend-line. The 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level and the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) provide Support, while the 1W RSI is on a Bearish Divergence (Channel Down) but the 1W MACD is about to form a Bullish Cross.
The last we had the above combination of indicators, was February 16 2021. At the time, the 1W MACD failed to make the Bullish Cross and the stock pulled back to the 1W MA50 but when it formed the Cross on April 12 2021, it broke above the Higher Highs. What followed was a 7-month rally to the -0.618 Fibonacci extension.
As you can see, the symmetry between the two fractals is striking. When the MACD Bullish Cross takes place, we would assume a similar rise and the -0.618 Fib target will be at $1100. Is that in your opinion realistic for Q3 2024?
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. **
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
💸💸💸💸💸💸
👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
S&P Pull BackNew update.
It seems like markets have found themselves face to face with reality. The bear market rally seems to have run out of steam due to the amounting economic and inflationary data. Simply put, I do not think markets can rally from here, based on:
RSI overbought on 1W
MACD Crossed on 1W
Food prices are at 18 moth highs according to UN.
Fuel prices are back near record highs
Rent prices are back at record highs according to Redfin and Zillow
Home Prices are heading higher according to Case Shiller Index
Vehicle prices remain high, making a slight gain last month according to FRED and MUI
Housing affordability is at a multi-decade low (1980s)
With this data in mind, I can't imagine how the Fed will be able to hide this new inflation in future CPI/PPI reports. It's impossible. Just because their official report says inflation is falling, it doesn't make it a reality. The debt to savings ratio in America is about the worst on record, which means people are paying more for the same items they used to buy because prices are rising and there is nothing they can do to stop it. Some people believe unicorns are real, but that doesn't mean they're real.
Markets have risen for the last 4 consecutive months without pause, and continually since Oct 2022 lows based on the idea that inflation is "easing" and that the Fed will reverse course. Higher interest rates are good, because it promotes savings with higher yields. It also promotes paying off debt and less leveraging by Americans. The problem with 0% interest is that it creates artificial spending growth, which in fact is nothing more than a bubble. We saw the mad rush to buy cars and homes in 2021 with people overpaying on over priced homes and cars. Now? They're starting to sweat, especially those who bought vehicles, because 2 years later, they still owe more than MSRP and dealers won't buy them for near MSRP. Home buying sentiment is the worst in 23 years according to CNBC (keep in mind, that's worse than 2008-09).
Keep watching.. let's see how this farce of a market plays out. Who knows, they may continue to fudge numbers and markets may reverse and rally again, but everyone knows that prices everywhere are higher, so it matters not if the "official" numbers are low. You feel it at the pump, grocery store, and everywhere else. There was no easing.
#SPX CBOE:SPX
TSLA NVDA MSFT AMZN AAPL GOOGL META Forecast00:00 QQQ Forecast
09:15 Sp500 ETF analysis
10:50 Nvidia Stock NVDA Forecast Technical Analysis
12:44 Tesla Stock TSLA Forecast Technical Analysis
14:10 Apple Stock AAPL Forecast Technical Analysis
15:49 Amazon Stock AMZN Forecast Technical Analysis
17:00 Google Stock GOOGL Forecast Technical Analysis
17:44 Microsoft Stock MSFT Forecast Technical Analysis
19:02 Meta Forecast Technical Analysis
Semis for the comebackThe semiconductors ETF NASDAQ:SMH is already making new highs, NASDAQ:NVDA is looking great again and NASDAQ:AMD is near a pivot buy
But I'm looking at these two stocks, NYSE:ONTO and NASDAQ:MTSI , both are making a double bottom pattern and haven't breakout yet
The thing is that NYSE:ONTO has been outperforming NASDAQ:MTSI since 2021, so depending on what happens this week I'd be more or less aggressive with $ONTO.
Nvidia Maintains Lead in AI MarketNvidia's strategy of expanding into cloud services aims to reinforce its market position. The company's financial health is robust, with profit margins nearing 25%, significantly outpacing AMD's 4%. This stark contrast in profitability underlines why Nvidia may continue to be a more attractive investment option compared to AMD. Despite projections hinting at AMD's faster growth in 2024, Nvidia is expected to hold onto its leadership position.
Tech giants and investors are closely watching these developments. who holds positions in both AMD and Nvidia as well as other tech firms like Microsoft, Amazon, and Intel (NASDAQ:INTC), considers his investment in AMD as a strategic hedge against his larger stake in Nvidia. Meanwhile, Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:META) has opted not to challenge Nvidia's GPU capabilities for AI tasks, further cementing Nvidia's dominance in the market.
As the AI revolution demands more processing power, both companies are likely to remain critical players. However, for now, Nvidia's combined hardware-software offerings give it an edge reminiscent of Intel’s past market dominance but with the added leverage of being a crucial software provider akin to Microsoft.
NVIDIA's Peak Signals A Tactical Analysis for Long-Short Investors Eyeing Reversal Signals in NVIDIA's Market Dominance
The dance of market dominance is nearing a pivotal climax, with NVIDIA's relative outperformance approaching historical support levels. This juncture could mark a strategic inflection for hedge fund investors specializing in long-short strategies, poised to capture value in Tesla, Ethereum, and Bitcoin, while prudently shorting NVIDIA. The critical question, laced with complexity, is timing—when to initiate the hedge as market ratios flirt with reversal amid surging volatility.
NASDAQ:NVDA NASDAQ:TSLA
The NVIDIA Indicator: A Prelude to Reversal
NVIDIA's chart articulates a tale of triumph, but the crescendo of its performance hints at an impending decrescendo. The ratios—TSLA/NVIDIA, ETHUSD/NVIDIA, and BTCUSD/NVIDIA—now graze historical support levels, suggesting NVIDIA's relative surge may be peaking. This potential pivot in performance ratios could herald a strategic window for investors believing in the resilience and upside of TSLA, ETH, and BTC to consider hedging positions by shorting NVIDIA.
The Hedging Dilemma: Timing the Market's Ebb
The conundrum of the hedge lies in its timing. Historical patterns have shown that prior to a trend reversal, an exuberant decorrelation often manifests—an exodus from the norm that momentarily disfavors the hedger.
The Cost of Caution: Weighing the Hedging Expense
Beyond the question of 'when' lies the consideration of 'how much.' The cost of hedging with NVIDIA is far from trivial, burdened by the implied volatility premiums, interest rates, and the potentially protracted duration before the trade matures. For the long-short strategist, this isn't merely a trade but a high-stakes game of patience and precision, where the cost of entry must be painstakingly balanced against the expected time for the strategy to bear fruit.
Strategic Insights: Crafting the Long-Short Position
In this delicate pre-reversal phase, the adept investor would be wise to monitor closely for signs of NVIDIA’s momentum waning. Identifying the optimal entry point for the hedge involves a blend of quantitative analysis and qualitative insights, with a vigilant eye on market sentiment, technological shifts, and broader economic indicators that may precipitate the ratio's about-turn.
For hedge fund investors, the apparent zenith in NVIDIA's performance ratios with Tesla, Ethereum, and Bitcoin could signal the opportune moment to recalibrate long-short positions. However, the art of this trade lies not in the action, but in the timing of it. As the market teeters on the brink of a trend reversal, the cost of hedging underscores the need for a meticulous and disciplined approach. The impending period may indeed spell the end of NVIDIA's outperformance, but only the most astute and patient will be poised to capitalize on the shift.
This article is presented for informational purposes and should not be construed as investment advice. The analysis contained herein is based on historical market performance and does not guarantee future results. Investors should conduct thorough research and consider all risks before making investment decisions.