Next week - Several potential buying zones on NQ/US100 CAPITALCOM:US100 , CME_MINI:NQ1!
As the Nasdaq market is bullish at present, I expect the market to continue rising. In this analysis, based on the market's structure, you can find multiple possible buying zones with a high probability of buying scenario.
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NASDAQ 100 E-MINI FUTURES
NQ1! NAS100USD NASDAQ 2023 JUNE 05Continuation long from previous analysis was in order last week.
Minor weakness has appeared.
Possible Scenarios:
1) Continuation Long: Long on retracement. Down bars has to
be on lower volume.
2) Previous supply zone 15269
Exercise caution if you see climatic bars into this level. Market
may rotate to work out demand and supply.
Price Reaction Levels
Short on Test and reject | Long on Test and Accept
16646 15269 14575
*Longer term: 13350 needs to be supported for long trend
to be intact.
Price Volume Analysis:
Weekly: Ave vol narrower up bar close off high = NTC weakness
Daily: 19 May UT bar, ave vol= = potential weakness
*NTC = Non-Trend Changing
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Have a profitable trading week.
*For education purpose only.
NASDAQ One last bullish leg possible before exhaustion.Nasdaq (NDX) easily hit the 14350 Target that we called on our last analysis (see chart below) 10 days ago:
The price even broke above the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level from the All Time Highs and hit the top of the March 13 Channel Up. However there is still some room left before hitting the top of the long-term Channel Up that started after the January 06 market bottom.
A pattern that supports this argument is the 1D RSI that is trading on Higher Highs similar to January 26 2023 and August 03 2022. Those was the last phase before the final Higher High that exhausted the trend and started a correction. As a result we will pursue one final upside target at 15000 and then most likely we will see a pull-back towards the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line).
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NQ1! Chart for 6/2 S/D LevelsLast day to end the first week of June.
Us debt ceiling passed. 530am PST release of nonfarm and unemployment #s.
Struggling through the supply zone at time of posting, would be interesting to see us break through to break 5/30 highs of the downtrend.
Otherwise I am targeting pivot P below for bears if we can break through the demand zones.
Keeping the description brief, trying to cut down on the length of the message.
Link to chart: www.tradingview.com
NASDAQ May be entering a short term correction waveNasdaq / NDX / US100 is near the top of the 6 month Channel Up.
Since the middle of that pattern, it started to form a narrower Channel Up.
So far we have had 3 correction waves inside the larger Channel Up, each less aggressive than the previous.
The 1day RSI is forming a Rising Resistance pattern same with the previous in February 2nd that priced the peak of the Channel Up.
Sell if the RSI crosses under its MA line.
Buy a little over the 1day MA50. Target 15280 (Resistance A, High of March 29th 2022).
Previous chart:
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NQ1! Chart for 5/31-6/1 S/D LevelsNew downtrend created on the 1HR timeframe. At time of posting, it looks like an attempt to break out. If we hit longs, I see a pull to Pivot new 14333, otherwise I want a bear retracement to S1 at 14224. My previous trade idea did pan out which was nice to watch and during my call with the team. It seemed crazy at first but seems that the US debt ceiling meeting made things worse even though they agreed on raising it. IF this downtrend continues I want a break through the demand zone and a continuation to the downside to retrace the move as today was the last day of May. Here comes June!
NQ1! 5/30-5/31 S/D LEVELSUS Debt ceiling votes are in tomorrow, Wednesday 5/31.
Although the agreement is not what both parties want to the T, I have a feeling they will agree on the vote because it is for the greater good. If they do not agree, we are headed into default which will hurt the economy tremendously. We cannot afford to have that happen right now because of bank system failures, inflation, and other news events that are impactful. Needless to say, I think we see a spike in longs to end the month green.
BULLS: 14661-667 to 14612
BEARS: 14299 to 14089
I am following per pivot points and my S/D areas. We have reasons to be on both sides as I see we are partially balanced even tho we had heavy bull power lately. Bulls can continue up due to good news and no true resistance to the upside. Bears can take over for a retracement and liquidity zones.
Link to chart: www.tradingview.com
NASDAQ There is still room to riseNasdaq has been on an incredible rise since March 24th after hitting the MA50 (4h).
The MACD pattern is trading on the same sequence as the March 7th-17th and January 12th-27th patterns that led to new Highs on the 1.618 Fibonacci.
The long term pattern remains a Channel Up.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the current market price.
Targets:
1. 15100 (marginally under the 1.618 Fibonacci extension and the 15285 High of March 29th 2022).
Tips:
1. There is a secondary Channel Up (dots) since March 13th. This may lead Nasdaq to a smoother (and lengthier) rise to 15100.
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Notes:
Past trading plan:
💡 SPX Seasonality: Sell in May and Go Away. Here's Memorial DayMemorial Day (originally known as Decoration Day) is a federal holiday in the United States for honoring and mourning the U.S. military personnel who have died while serving in the United States Armed Forces.
For nowadays, it is observed on the last Monday of May, and this year it is observed on May 29, 2023.
Memorial Day is considered a U.S. stock market holiday, which means the Nasdaq and New York Stock Exchange will be closed Monday, May 29.
What is Sell in May and Go Away?
Sell in May and Go Away refers to a well-known adage in the business and financial world. The phrase refers to an investment strategy for stocks based on the theory that the stock market underperforms in the four-month period between May and October (since June until September). In contrast, the 3-months period since November and until January sees much stronger stock market growth.
For many past years I used many other websites to analyze seasonality of major stocks, indices, Fx pairs and commodities.
Thanks to TradingView community and its awesome @tradeforopp wizard, the script Seasonality has changed the rules .
As it described on Indicator webpage , This Seasonality indicator is meant to provide insight into an asset's average performance over specified periods of time (Daily, Monthly, and Quarterly).
How the Sell in May and Go Away Strategy Works
If investors follow the Sell in May and Go Away strategy, they sell stocks at the End of May (or during the late spring) and have the proceeds held in cash. Then, the investors would invest again in early October (or in the late autumn). That means, the investors would avoid holding stock during the summer months.
History of Sell in May and Go Away
👉 “Sell in May and Go Away” has its origins in England or, more specifically, in London’s financial district. The original phrase was “Sell in May and go away, come back on St. Leger’s Day,” with the latter event referring to a horse race.
👉 Established in 1776, the St. Leger Stakes is one of the most well-known horse races in England, being the last leg of the British Triple Crown and is run at the Doncaster Racecourse in South Yorkshire in September of every year. In its original context, the adage recommended that British investors, aristocrats, and bankers should sell their shares in May, relax and enjoy the summer months while escaping the London heat, and return to the stock market in the autumn after the St. Leger Stakes.
👉 In the U.S., some investors have adopted a similar strategy by refraining from investing during the period between Memorial Day in May and Labor Day in September.
Relevant Statistics and Considerations
👉 Historical data have generally supported the “Sell in May and Go Away” adage over the many years. The S&P 500 Index has recorded a cumulative three-month average annualized return of more than 10% in the period between November to January, based on the statistics data collected over the past 151 years.
👉 At the other side, S&P500 an average annualized gain is about Zero between May and October (June till September), based on the same statistics data collected over the past 151 years.
👉 Seasonal factors play an important role here, as end-of-year bonuses and the Santa Claus Rally, which refers to the stock market’s tendency to rally over the last few weeks of December into the first few months of the new year. Some theories behind it include increased holiday shopping, optimism and morale fueled by the Thanksgiving Day, winter holidays, or investors settling their books before going on holiday.
February and March are relatively mild in terms of growth. The stock market could lifts in April and May due to the anticipated release of the first-quarter reports (for example, like after recently announced Q1'23 NASDAQ:NVDA report).
👉 In contrast, the summer time tends to be less optimistic, with first-quarter results over and many people spending less time paying attention to stocks as they go on summer vacation. In addition, specifically in election years, there tends to be a weakness of the stock market in September due to the uncertainty of the election results.
The conclusion
👉 It should be noted that returns have often varied in different time periods, and there have been many exceptions.
👉 However the upper chart (SPX Seasonality) clearly illustrates that based on the statistics data collected over the past 151 years, the timeframe since June until September, averagely is the worst time to invest into SP500 Index, while June and September are the worst performer months over the all history of S&P500 since 1870s.
👉 Memorial Day could be considered as a starting point for the strategy, where the negative return of the following business day (or business week in a case of no significant change) after Memorial Day usually predicts the further stock market trends and directions until October (begin of fourth quarter).
NASDAQ: Overbought and in need of a technical pull-back.Nasdaq hit the 1.236 Fibonacci extension which was our target on the last call we gave and has turned overbought on the 1D time frame (RSI = 71.555, MACD = 292.250, ADX = 40.204). We are expecting a pull back to at least the 1D MA50 and the HL trend line. The most optimal buy signal will be when the 1D RSI touches its HL trend line. Next long term target is R1 and the 1.5 Fibonacci extension (TP = 15,300).
Prior idea:
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NQ UpdateMFI rapidly falling and it'll probably go oversold before the market opens tomorrow..... which means another pump?
Hard to believe with 3 hr RSI still close to overbought, and both daily and weekly indicators are also overbought. Not chasing it that's for sure.
Shorting BUD via weekly options. I teach skiing, and one of the funniest things a kid said was "the cheese is falling off my pizza." Looks to me like BUD lost the cheese and the pepperoni, lol.
Probably safe to hold puts overnight, but looks at indicators before market open tomorrow. I'll probably throw a post up since I have an open position. A whipsaw at the top is pretty common, the market rarely throws a clean reversal.