Get started

NQ

NQ - Daily / EPS Squeeze on Low Volumes / Trap Door Opens AgainWall Street and its beloved twists and turns are ever-present during the Summer Months. Apres June 21st, an environment of predatory and opportunistic Counter-Trends always seem to manifest into Labor Day, or so it went. I believe you may or can toss that out the window in the near future - prior to the FOMC spike hike July 27th. The Fed is poised to deliver another bigger-than-usual rate hike at its next meeting on July 27th. It desires to "tame inflation" now running at more than three times its 2% goal, with fears growing that the economy will tip into recession as a result. The Upper Decker kicker -Daly suggests - "The labor market is strong enough to take more rate increases." ______________________________________________________________________________ Is it? No, hell no. Let's prod into this steaming Pile of fecality. P.1 - "Recession" Every School of Economic Thought, every single one defines a Depression as 3 consecutive quarters of declining GDP. These axioms for every school of thought were defined when the United States was a Production-based Economy. Let's simply review the St Louis Fed by the Numbers: fred.stlouisfed.org GDP Peaked due to Stimulus - both Fiscal and Monetary In Q1 2021, it took 2 quarters for the Hangover to arrive. 4 Consecutive Quarters of declining GDP. Textbook Depression - Factually by the FED's own numbers. The Bump in Q1? The one the FInancial Media touted so highly... Complete and total Fraud - a cruel joke the Investing Public swallowed after having been told very early on - "It's all priced into the Markets." Real GDP decreased at an annual rate of 1.6% in the first quarter of 2022. 5 Quarters on Declining GDP with Number 6 On deck. ______________________________________________________________________________ P.2 The Strong Labor Market There has been an extreme number of Layoffs recently, largely ignored by the Investing Public. 3.6% Unemployment at a Labor Force Participation Rate of 61%. 372,000 "Jobs" Added. According to the Ministry of Labor and Statistics. Once again, numbers do not lie, liars do. 388,000 People left the Labor Force - Jobs Fell. Add in a seasonal Adjustment of .1% and we simply add 411,000. 799,000 People abandoned the Labor Force. Not a strong Jobs Number when the headlines are ignored and the Facts are accounted for in sum total. People DO NOT have an incentive to Participate. Ask yourself WHY. There will be another BLS adjustment in hindsight @ .2% or another 800,000 Jobs. There are 1.6 Million Jobs left for dead. Gone, Poof... Adios Jobs. Believe the Bullsh_t or do the Work required to determine the Facts. Conde Nast - No. of Employees Laid off: 90% - adios publishing, Vogue, Vanity Fair, et al. For All Tech - the Numbers are rather large, San Franciso is about to see the Unicorn haven status revoked entirely. Every Firm Mega, Large, Mid, Small is letting go of its Peeps. Adios, enjoy Van life in Slab City. ______________________________________________________________________________ What's the TRADE PLAN? Simple, fade this Junk Co Junk out through October, then again post Selections into February. We will peak this month on this fraudulent Counter-Trend off the SloMo into a very Mild FOMO. Participants will need to be dragged kicking and screaming back into this decidedly messed Trap n' Snap. The Economy is deteriorating at an outsized pace, it is a terminal decline. We'll see where this week's TOSS takes us, we're positioning into PUTS across the Curve and Loading Up on the VIX Contango to the Inversion. Counter-Trends in Depressions can have an all-or-nothing approach to them, why not, what's left to lose... Q2 will be extreme in the sheer show and tell of destruction. Prepare yourselves for the next very large move down. Good Luck and Be patient with entries.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by HK_L61
2
Tech Reversal In Play: Allow Price Action To PlayoutThe market complexion has changed greatly from "there is no chance of a recession" to "well, maybe there could be a recession" as the economic data continues to deteriorate. Continuing Jobless Claims in the United States increased to 1.375M in the week ending June 25 of 2022 from 1.324M in the previous week. The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits rose by 4K to 235K in the week that ended July 2nd, compared to market expectations of 230K, suggesting labor market conditions could be moderating. But, I think it is just getting started as many companies are laying off and cancelling employment offers. These activities take time to get into the system and "The Counting Rule" is... they must be actively looking in-order to be counted. So, don't hold your breadth. And keep in mind the Fed will remain hiking rates, while the ECB will eventually need to jump on this wagon. Speaking of the ECB. The United States is acting as-if The Federal Reserve Raising Interest Rates solves everything. Government Debt in the United States increased to 30,499,619 Trillion in May from 30,374,155 Trillion in April of 2022. The US Debt to GDP increased to 137% from 128%. They act as-if there is nothing for the public to worry about; however, many issues have not begun to trickle into the US, as far as we're concerned. 🥶Winter is going to be a huge test for the US and so will the household debt crisis -- not yet discussed in media as companies are trying to figure out how to keep consumers spending (e.g. buy now; pay later). But, raising rates does not stop the government from spending, nor does it stop the government from issuing more debt. We also have other factors in play such as the Federal Reserve Balance Sheet, M2 Money Supply, and WH Executive Orders at play here. HOWEVER.... The point of this post is the "very tight" interconnection between the US and UK. Remember it is a global market and just like the global market crash of 1929 we are more connected today than ever before. 👉 The US and UK are at EXTREME levels of government debt and both facing economic collapse scenarios. 😳 If the UK goes down - don't think for a minute that the US cannot go along with it. You have seen my recent post about the US Liquidity Swaps, right? If not, scroll down the news feed and you'll see it. Nevertheless, through my external analysis of the markets (with annotated charts) there remains a very-strong conviction that the recent lows of the financial markets will be tested and broken. This also takes into account the Federal Reserve Balance Sheet and the fact the Government Debt continues to expand against the GDP. Downside targets for the SPX and NDX NDX = T1 9,538; T2 8,200 (current price is at 12,109.05) SPX T1 3,040; T2 = 2,750 (current price is at 3,902) I GET IT... Many will not be supportive of the above, nor have many been on my Public Posts within TradingView; however, the same people bashing never seem to return when the outcomes play out. I am not here to say, "see, I told you so" or anything of that nature - as I'm providing my thesis into all the posts I provide with thorough assessments into the global markets and not based on raw emotions. I really hope this post (and others) have been informative, helpful, or at least worthy enough for your review. I "value your time" and am humbled that you took the time to read, comment, etc. on any of my posts. Thank you again. Bill Davis - Technical Trader
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by bsdvs23
2
NQ - 15 Minute ALGO Drop / Globex Thru Tuesday - DisInflation QMaterials Flow must-see Prices fall in order to clear. There's just one larger issue. Weakening Manufacturing and weakening Demand. Consumer Demand was artificially propped due to the a number of misinformation(s). Allocations, Panic demand, Mis-Allocations - a complete and total Sh_t Mix. Ramping up production as Savings, Investment, and Incomes are within a steep decline, Risky Business. Slowing congestion in spot rates is endemic to misallocations. Surplus Stocks and Low Demand... will resolve in time. @ present, holding flows for higher prices isn't going to work. Prices clear on levels, regardless of the interventions. Why? Costs. Ultimately, manufacturers will reign in production, leading to greater shortages later this year and next. This basic concept applies to all goods and services. Short-term - misinformation. Long Term, Supply constraints due to reductions in Manu and CapEx. ____________________________________________________________ How the Media and Wall Street manage the narrative... simple, the peak inflation communique will limp along for a short period of time. The larger disruptions and declines in everything are ahead. For now, be on guard for one of two events short term in the July 6/8 timeframe. A near Waterfall decline OR a larger Retracemnet into an even greater decline. This week will be very important. Trade safe and prosperity in your trading.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by HK_L61
Nasdaq 100 - Headed to new lowsJust 24 hours ago, we turned again bearish on the Nasdaq 100 index, which was quickly followed by a selloff of more than 3%. We also set price targets for NQ1! at 11 500 USD and 11 000 USD. We maintain those price targets as we remain bearish on the U.S. economy. That is because we think more rate hikes and economic tightening will drag the stock market to new lows. Additionally, the next wave of selling will likely experience even faster acceleration than the previous one; therefore, we voice caution for investors. We will monitor the volatility for more clues; ideally, we would like to see a bounce up above 30 USD. Illustration 1.01 Yesterday, we pointed to the retracement (toward the 20-day SMA) shown above. We noted that this retracement acted as a natural correction of a downtrend and the selling pressure was likely to resume soon. Moving averages continue to indicate the downtrend. Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI is neutral/slightly bearish. Stochastic turned bearish again. MACD is turning bearish too. DM+ and DM- performed bearish crossover. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish. Illustration 1.02 The picture above shows simple support and resistance levels for NQ1!. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame stays bearish. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by Tradersweekly
10