NQ Hourly Trend LinePrice action rules suggest that once a trend line is broke, we tend to make a new extreme before the reversal. As we can see here, price has broke, made a new high, and is not stagnant.
Just as horizontal break and retests are a thing for support/resistance, angular break and retests occur on trend lines as well. It'll be interesting to see.
NQ
Short the STONKSBig Bubble Big Bubble Big Bubble Big Bubble Big Bubble Big Bubble Big Bubble Big Bubble Big Bubble Big Bubble Big Bubble Big Bubble Big Bubble Big Bubble Big Bubble Big Bubble Big Bubble Big Bubble Big Bubble Big Bubble Big Bubble Big Bubble Big Bubble Big Bubble Big Bubble Big Bubble Big Bubble Big Bubble Big Bubble Big Bubble Big Bubble Big Bubble Big Bubble Big Bubble Big Bubble Big Bubble Big Bubble Big Bubble Big Bubble Big Bubble Big Bubble Big Bubble
Nasdaq Breaking highs! Entryy??It looks like NQ should break the weekly highs here and it should be looking backwards be a strong push ahead but because of the current market conditions this could simply be a liquidity grab before going back downwards especially if interest rates are raised next quarter.
Would I swing here for the long run? Absolutely not! Wait for some kind of a confirmation for long term entries. Super risky to hold if you're up. At least take partials if you are.
Day traders and short term swing traders should in my opinion, have a bullish bias to start this week and look for bullish entries if given any retracement + entry signals according to your strategies.
That's what I see, what do you guys think?
(Reason for current bullish move: Ease on interest rates, declining USD and golden zone fib retracement, "historically" showing upwards momentum after so there should be many buyers in the market.)
NQ expectations based on macro-economic analysis and structuralThere are 2 scenarios that I expect to occur, both with the final outcome, the circumstantial achievement of historical highs, because: we had a response to the restrictive monetary policies of the FED before 3/11/2023 with a lower than expected NFP and a rate of rising unemployment; then with decreasing inflation. I expect scenario 1 (white) to occur if in these days the markets close with a bearish acceptance below the last Value Area; scenario 2 (green) only if we have a bullish acceptance of the last established maximum. Seasonality should also not be overlooked as we are in Q4 and the very close Christmas rally, a Risk-ON period.
12-12-2023 Tuesday Profile $NQTuesday’s profile yesterday was tricky on both sides, eventually, strong bullish fundamentals give us a bullish continuation.
After CPI heavy impact news, price dropped heavily into a discount to M30 FVG, supported with Weekly VWAP, creating a nice M3 +Breaker, and the rest is bullish following patterns targeting the previous Swing high before the red news and its Rejection block.
London Session: from 9:00-10:00 AM CET it offers price in premium array with some LTF bearishness to the downside, it was a nice move to catch some solid RR before the price moved into the consolidation stage ahead of CPI.
Even after CPI, read the news, we could have a solid 2RR Short, to keep the short-term bearish momentum down to the 16 200 level, however, once, the order flow started to change we needed to act properly and change bias back to HTF bullish.
New York Session: Since 4 PM CET, there is a clear +LTF Breaker formed, followed by +OB, it just gave us a bullish HTF continuation, while NYSE:ES is filling its Daily Gap which had been created a few months ago.
For full details, see also this chart below, where is M30 w M3 Chart for better lower-time frame description
Mind the Gap. And an interesting way to share my personal chartHello
I have inserted my personal work chart for this am so I can share exactly what I'm looking at.
I just discovered this today.
There is a gap below current price that should be watched.
I don't suspect many are trading today but if you are, good luck.
Also be mindful trading view is rolling over contracts automatically on charts EARLY and this will give discrepancies between Dec and forward month. I didn't appreciate that this morning.
NQ OverviewThe NQ 1-hour chart depicts a clear trading range between the key resistance at 16,085 and the current key support at 15,940, with a prevailing bullish sentiment within this range. Below the key support, a previously tested demand zone ranging from 15,930 to 15,890 exists. Shorting into this demand zone carries high risk, requiring a loss of the key support level at 15,830 to trigger a substantial pullback.
My trading plan involves exploring short scalping opportunities at the upper range boundary, with conservative targets of 5-10 points, given the elevated risk associated with shorting. Additionally, I plan to consider long positions at key support and demand levels, contingent on the continuation of demand and support signals.
It's noteworthy that NQ is potentially forming a bullish flag pattern with support at 15,940, characterized by lower highs forming into support, suggesting a possible breakout. The question of how long NQ can sustain its ascent before a pullback is a valid one. However, it's essential not to let speculative scenarios influence your bias and instead focus on trading based on observed price action and chart analysis, which currently supports a bullish sentiment.
NQ 4-Hour Bull FlagA potential bull flag is emerging on the NQ 4-hour chart, with the 15945 level acting as critical support. As the market experiences a period of consolidation, we observe a gradual descent towards this support zone. This consolidation phase, following a prolonged bull run, raises questions about the market's next move: will the bull flag lead to another upward leg, or are we poised for a necessary pullback? Both NQ and ES are currently in a cooling-off phase, forming additional breakout patterns. On a higher time frame, the key support to monitor remains at the 15945 zone.
A clear deviation between NQ and ES CME_MINI:NQ1! CME_MINI:ES1! We can see that the ES chart is weaker and more "bearish" than the NQ. That means in the next week open if ES breaks the checkpoint "1" we can easily see an ATH for NQ , because we have already broken the checkpoint "1" on NQ . So I think the direction and the sentiment of NQ are highly based on whether ES breaks above or bellow the checkpoint "1" . We should also wait to see where the weekly gap will open. Up or down the current weekly close.
Ebay: Brief touch 👉The price of eBay stock recently ventured into the green target zone (coordinates: $37.48 - $29.58) with a candlestick. However, the dip into the zone did not last long, as the stock immediately rebounded by 11%. Our primary scenario is for the price to drop back into the zone and anchor the low of the green wave (B) a little lower. However, it should be noted that the minimum requirement for a correction has already been met with the 90% retracement at $37.48, and a direct start would thus theoretically be possible. An imminent attack on the resistance at $45.54 would lead us to believe that we are already in the green wave alt.(2), which we consider to have a 40% probability.
Nasdaq - A Black Friday Blowout Sale?Using the SPX as a reference for ease of use, at the beginning of the November rally I asked whether or not manipulation would come after we saw a 5% rally in 3 days just because the U.S. Treasury decided to spam bonds at a lower, but still already highly inflated, rate in Q4 than they did in Q3.
SPY - Did We Bottom, Or Is Manipulation Coming?
The week before last, I cautioned bulls who believe in the "Santa Rally" thesis that we may just see sideways and manipulation back down with the end of year target being merely 4,600 and not 4,900.
SPX - Santa Ralliers: You Better Keep Your Eyes On The Clock
And for the record, I haven't cared about this rally because I haven't had a position, since there was never a retrace I never went long and shorting has looked bad, and turned out to continue to be bad.
But Friday the 17th marked the monthly Options Expiry (OpEx), and we predictably spent the day sideways. The next week ahead is U.S. Thanksgiving on Thursday, where the markets will be closed for the last time before Christmas, and then Black Friday the day after.
Although there is little news drivers this week, except for Employment on Wednesday and PMI on Friday, I posit that since the Nasdaq set a double top with its July high, we may very well see a 1,000 point "Black Friday blow out sale" this week that sets up a December rally that takes out the All Time High.
Keep in mind after this week, starting with "Cyber Monday," we still have four trading days to complete the November candle, and so we most certainly can dump an awful lot and rally an awful lot to finish the month some 2 or 3% away from where we closed on Friday.
The dangers in the markets are exceptional at the moment, however. Xi Jinping visited San Francisco for the climate theatre conference, where he met with the Biden Administration.
What this event indicates to us is that the International Rules Based Order is extending Xi, who is a Chinese nationalist, an olive branch to cede his control of China and form a critical hub in the coming One World Government.
But the IRBO has never been so intelligent as to understand that it cannot out maneuverer the Red Dragon of the Chinese Communist Party, for the Devil Red is a scourge who has come to ensure that humanity and all of its related souls are totally annihilated.
At the root of the conflict is the 24-year persecution of Falun Dafa, originally started by former Chairman Jiang Zemin on July 20, 1999. The campaign has targeted 100 million spiritual believers, even going so far as to commit the unprecedented sin of live organ harvesting.
Although Xi has been killing the Jianglings for more than a decade in his Anti-corruption Campaign, Xi is still the head of the CCP, the Red Dragon and Destroyer of Worlds, and this is a problem for him that he will either solve by overthrowing the CCP in a coup Gorbachev-style, or Heaven will solve it for him by sacking the Emperor's Bedroom in Zhongnanhai and Beidaihe.
For the IRBO, the problem the whole world faces is that the supposed "International Police" (and its Wall Street financial vanguard) have been staining their hands sanguine crimson with the Jianglings in Shanghai-Babylon all these years.
The sins are so extremely massive that they can never be fully paid for, and they still aren't doing their part to wash their hands and social distance from the Devil Red.
Instead, they're doing everything they can to expand the CCP's Zero-COVID Social Credit system worldwide.
And this is going to cause a Dark Winter for humanity. When that day comes, your indexes and your memestocks, your "Magnificent 7," even, will all trade like crypto dumpstercoins because no market making algorithm will be available to pump and dump, and at the same time everyone will be desperate to sell, with no buyers available.
But the good news is that when that day comes, you won't be paying attention to money anymore. Instead, what is unfolding in this world will be the only thing notable, and you won't have any interest, or any need of, following CNN and NYT and Xeeeeeeeeeeter for updates.
The information will come from a combination of your own eyes and another platform, one pure and clean.
Lord Jesus once told his followers: "Whoever has eyes, let them see. Whoever has ears, let them hear."
The blind and the deaf will be culled, and such is the nature of the trial all souls face.
NQ Uptrend Still BullishWhen evaluating whether to take a short or long position, it's crucial to observe current trends. For example, the NQ 4-hour chart maintains its uptrend as it hasn't broken any higher lows. This was evident during a live chat I observed today, where some traders were initiating short positions anticipating a "flush." However, their rationale wasn't clear. Understanding the shift in trends, characterized by breaking higher lows followed by forming lower highs and lower lows, is a key aspect in determining your trading bias across all time frames. Although the 4-hour trend is still strongly bullish, the 1 to 5-minute timeframe may exhibit a "pullback," offering short-term intraday shorting opportunities. However, it's important to be aware that this strategy goes against the dominant bullish trend in a higher time frame and is very high risk.
Market Update - BTC, ETH, NQ, SPX, DXYMonday Market Update:
Bitcoin continues in its high range as ETH starts to regain some important levels after doing a deep drive down and retest. TradFi indices are still holding levels as the DXY retests its yearly open, completing a 3 drive to the downside.
The expectation is that markets will continue unless local structure is broken on the TradFi Indices in which case a strong dump to fill volume gaps is likely.
Bitcoin is continuing to squeeze to the upside and until major levels are broken such as $35k there is no expectation of market retracement. This upside bias will change immediately if $35k is lost and bearishly retested.
NQ 6H OverviewOverview
NQ seems to be operating within a descending triangle pattern at the moment. This formation doesn't necessarily indicate a bullish or bearish trend, but a breakout in either direction could provide significant insights. In addition to the descending triangle, it's evident that we're currently ranging between two crucial levels: 16000, which acts as a major supply zone, and 15800, serving as a significant break and retest zone. If the 15800 level holds strong, we might see a move towards 16000 or higher. Conversely, if 15800 is breached, there's a possibility of a decline to the 15600 level, the next demand zone, or even to 15450, another notable break and retest zone.
Key Levels
Supply: 16000
Demand: 15600
Break and Retest Zones: 15800 & 15450
SPX - Santa Ralliers: You Better Keep Your Eyes On The ClockIn previous threads looking at SPY:
SPY - Did We Bottom, Or Is Manipulation Coming?
Nasdaq
Nasdaq Futes - You Wanted a Dip For That 'Santa Rally,' Aye?
And ES
SPX ES - Welcome To The Fourth Quarter Rodeo
We've noted that both the extreme bear and extreme bull cases are dubious.
After the five day 8% rally to start the month, we warned that manipulation may be coming. Instead, we got a flat week where the October high was taken on a Friday afternoon.
The important thing for Santa rally believers, who are expecting the all time highs to be taken out, is that we're on what amounts to a pretty tight deadline, with the final day of the December candle being the deadline.
The reason for this is because the indexes went up in a straight line starting the first day of 2023, and this is not likely to repeat itself.
And so, what I believe we're in store for, is not a real Santa rally, but a fairly big 150-200 point retrace starting next week, that culminates in a rally that takes out 4,650 by year end, but goes no further.
That will mean that 2024 is a very unpleasant year for everyone, U.S. election or not.
Perhaps what will stop the Santa Rally from taking the all time highs on the indexes is the looming problems posed to the world by mankind's continued cooperation with and support of the Chinese Communist Party.
The Chinese Communist Party, under former Chairman Jiang Zemin in 1999, launched a full scale organ harvesting genocide and persecution against the 100 million practitioners of Falun Dafa meditation.
Those sins are more eternal and boundless than what Nero and the Romans did to Jesus and his Disciples 2,500 years ago by an infinite degree, for the scale is so much larger, the importance of this moment in history is so much more significant, and Falun Gong's students being true spiritual practitioners.
Xi Jinping, because he has made himself the head of the Party and has continued to hold onto Marxism and Leninism with a deathgrip, has painted himself into a corner that he only has one way out of.
That way is to coup d'etat the CCP and get rid of it like Gorbachev and friends got rid of the USSR. But the clock is ticking. He has to do it before the Wuhan Lung Flame breaches the Emperor's bedroom.
And former Premier Li Keqiang was killed by a heart attack just a few weeks ago, and only in his 60s.
Either way, the CCP is dust in the wind, and so are all the clowns on Wall Street, governments, big corporations, and Antifa/BLM-style scum of society revolutionary groups who have been either providing blood to or taking blood from the Evil Party all these years.
And this means that markets will go up in preparation for the falling guillotine. Because it's ultimately just humans gambling against Gods.
So here's the trade.
I expect next week, and perhaps also the week after, will bring a ~4-5% retrace that sets up a month end rally into a December rally that takes out 4,600.
We won't go sideways, I suspect, but it'll chop up and down and back and forth before finally getting to the point, and so it will probably suck to trade levered ETFs and options.
Still, there's a chance to go long coming up ahead with a target above the July highs to end the year, and that is about as good as she gets, I gander.
Good luck. I hope you heed the caution about "China" and do your part to social distance and wash your hands from communism and all its related scams.
Scenario for the week aheadAs we had a massive push up by buyers last week, now we are in zone that we need to have more cautious. buyers were trapped there before, and we expect a little rotation to lower levels and then a decision to where we are going.
Attention for ES and RTY wich are relentless to the resistance zone now.
VIX very low, and expectation is to increase a volatility.
Moodys downgrade could face a GAP down.
The path has me short on ES, SPY, NQ, etc.....Ok, this may be a bit much, but I'm bored and there are too many kids upstairs...... Well, I love me some Fibs, so take a look at some of these. The two Cypher patterns, the 2nd smaller one is set to the exact same parameters (measurements) as the first one. The yellow line is the path that the market had been on, except COVID hit and the market got back on path in May of 2020 after the CARES Act passed in March of 2020.
SPY - Did We Bottom, Or Is Manipulation Coming?In my preceeding posts, I'm actually "bullish" on equities in the fourth quarter.
SPX ES - Welcome To The Fourth Quarter Rodeo
Nasdaq Futes - You Wanted a Dip For That 'Santa Rally,' Aye?
And while I think this price action, coming on the back of news that the US Treasury will "only" issue $10 billion more worth of bonds this quarter (compared to like $160 billion last quarter), indicates that not only are we bullish, but going to take out the all time highs before year end...
I have reservations on this SPECIFIC price action being "The Bottom".
Before we go further, I will use the early space for those with low attention spans to warn you about the situation in Mainland China.
The Chinese Communist Party is the scourge of humanity that seeks to use all beings to destroy all beings. Xi Jinping is its head, and the Party will fall. When you kill a dragon, you kill it by chopping of its head.
But before you chop off its head, you often cripple it by chopping its tail. Former Xi Premier and right hand man Li Keqiang was killed by "a heart attack" recently, which is almost certainly code for the "Wuhan Pneumonia Pandemic."
The Party's 24-year persecution, and organ harvesting genocide, against Falun Dafa's 100 million practitioners is a sin that 100.00% guarantees the Party's destruction.
And that means it guarantees Xi's destruction, so long as he doesn't drop the CCP Gorbachev-style in time.
It does not look like Xi is that intelligent of a man to do that.
And so whatever bullish nonsense is arranged by Wall Street, who frequently sleeps with and transfuses blood to the Jiang Faction of the CCP, who are the architects of Falun Gong's persecution and the real evil force behind the Party and "China," to make sure that Communism globally can stay alive until the ruthless end, is subject to abject, merciless, brutal, and sudden truncation.
Meaning any rally can be annihilated by international events that are beyond the control of the so-called "controllers" at any time, for we fundamentally exist in a Cosmos that is inherently Divine.
There's some flaws on the SPY ETF, which is meaningful, because as I say many times, life revolves around banks and funds selling options and making sure they expire worthless.
When we look at the monthly:
October took out the June low, as I predicted earlier, but came up like a dollar shy of entering into the April wick.
Moreover, when we look at the weekly:
Which shows us more clearly the April-May double bottom is just 1%~ lower than the October low, and the $400 psych level is just 2% lower.
With this kind of a squeeze happening only 3 trading days into November's candle, and failing to take the high, we're primed to set up for an "outside bar" November that takes out BOTH the low AND the high of October.
But what this would mean is we're about to dump below the October low, where the real buying opportunity is.
But two problems with the theory are:
1) There's no news drivers next week except for Jerome Powell talking on Thursday.
2) The bull thesis has to complete by December 31 and we're running out of time
But that being said, when we had the October bottom last year, we had a 3-day 6% rally to open October before it turned around and took out the low and then rallied.
And when we had the COVID bottom because the Fed slashed rates to zero and started buying equities, the market had a 10% rally over the course of a few weeks and gave almost all of it back before setting the biggest highs of all time.
So this kind of manipulative behaviour is consistent with the market makers.
How to trade it? Well, if it doesn't go down next week then just blindly long anywhere and so long as you aren't buying calls with 0 or 3 days to expiry, you should be okay.
If it does go down, buy near the October low and under the October low.
The problem is no short setup has manifested as of Friday close, and so we can only sit on the sidelines and look for longs. Whoever was bigly long from Monday or last week should really have taken significant money off the table, cashing in and realizing those gains, this afternoon.
Don't forget the Dollar Index stopped just short of $108 and that's a big sign of coming manipulation and that we're too early.
This is how algorithms are programmed.
Good luck.
NASDAQ - NQ Black-Swan ScenarioThe Red Pitchfork is a Pendulum-Fork.
It grabs the biggest Swings and projects the most probable path of price, like in this chart.
The Count starts at P0 and relies on the REAL Swings that I teach you guys & gals. Therefore the Bump from the green Support-Line is NOT a Up-Swing. It's just the center part of a Sine-Wave.
Then P3 is created, breaking the Support from the Low of P1, and continues up to the Center-Line of the Orange Pitchfork at P4.
Since we know that
a) price has a high chance to turn in the opposite direction after reaching the Center-Line
AND
b) The Pivot Count ends and restarts at P5
AND
c) Price is still trading within the Red Pendulum-Fork
...we have a 80% Chance to reach the Center-Line of the Pendulum Fork around 1100 or even lower.
By when?
No clue yet, but have to drink another Coffee to read in the Ground again later §8-)
OK, I admit, that's a kind of a Black-Swan event.
But, I just follow my rules, my Framework and that is what I currently see.
The opposite side of this is, that the 0-3/5 Count is just a simple "Flag", and price Skyrockets to the green Center-Line of the Green Fork, around 16050 - 16250,
Taking the overall World situation, the incredible debt of countries like the USA, EU and others into the Blue-Print, I vote for the first scenario.
My Helmet sits tight.
Peace4TheWorld!
Nasdaq Futes - You Wanted a Dip For That 'Santa Rally,' Aye?The equities markets have spent the last three months liquidating bulls, and then liquidating bears, and then liquidating bulls, because the markets are primarily a scam for big money to sell options and have them expire worthless.
No matter what system you use or whose ideas you follow, you're always just guessing, because the computers can take price and do whatever they want at any time, because there's more stocks than there are money and more money than there are stocks, all concentrated in the hands of a few select banks and funds that are really just running crowdsourced cloud algos that communicate with time stamps and decimal fractions.
It's just another scam to bankrupt people and then blame you for being bankrupt.
There's nobody this society hates more than poor people and depressed people, and no Communist Party-funded causes are paid to campaign on behalf of the poor and sad, unless it's to lead them to "Medical Assistance In Dying" (MAID; see Canada).
2023 started off uppy in a straight line, and there's no reason to believe that's going to correct until the timestamp on the market making algorithms has a year date of 2024.
Which means that this bearish impulse is just that, a bearish impulse, that may be seeing its likely finale as early as this coming week to end the October monthly bar, as the next FOMC rate decision is October 31 and November 1.
I'll provide my warning to bears and bulls alike at the early stage of the post, because I know social media and drugs have given people the attention span of children addicted to sugar and cartoons.
Did you know that Li Keqiang, former Premier of China and second in command of the Chinese Communist Party behind Xi Jinping died on October 27, "of a heart attack"?
I have been warning for years of two things:
1. The CCP is actually about to fall, and is almost entirely certain to take Xi, an idiot, to its grave with it.
2. The death toll from the Wuhan Pneumonia pandemic (not to be confused with SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19) is insanely scary and completely covered up by the regime.
And now we're seeing public evidence that even the Xi Faction's main network are being dropped. Keqiang was only 68 years old, which is not very old for a CCP member.
Former Chairman Jiang Zemin, the architect of the persecution and organ harvesting genocide against Falun Dafa's 100 million students, allegedly lived to 96, by comparison, before turning to a pile of crematorium ashes and being thrown out of the very Cosmos by the Wind itself.
All of the above is to say that the year end rally is likely arranged by "the controllers," and yet they're just mice and men, and what can actually unfold before we see 2024 is entirely in the hands of Heaven Himself.
Let's look at monthly bars:
Three mediocre red months after a series of bigly big green months isn't bearish. To the contrary, it's bullish, but it's a question of how you can finance your timing to stay solvent while the market is irrational.
Weekly bars give us more clarity:
What we're really dealing with is a meagre 12% dump over 15 weeks.
And you're going to say to yourself that 12% is actually a lot on the indexes, and I will agree with you. However, it's really not when you take a look at a pair of twin 6-7% bounces that occurred over the span of 6 and 10 trading days in the mix.
And when you pair this with the reality that the market turning around and taking out the July high is just a paltry 17% rally from the 13,750 potential reverse point, over the course of two months, bears are set up to get absolutely annihilated before the real show starts in 2024.
Nothing about the way the markets have traded indicated we have bottomed *yet*. So what we do is, instead of GoInG LoNg oN ThE DiP and getting into the same trap as Disney, Paypal, and AT&T longtards, we simply look for reversals at 13,750, because it's the August of 2022 high, and 13,480-13,550, because 13,500 is a psychological number, and go long on a reversal pattern.
If this theory pans out, not only will the indexes take out the July high, but, the Nasdaq especially, may very well take out the All Time High.
If you were to have bought a QQQ $380 call on Friday expiring January, it would have cost you ~$3.25 ($325) with a 19% delta.
If we get another 4% dump on the indexes, you can pick one up for a little more than $2 and be looking at $9-12~ after theta decay for it to be merely at the money by the end of November.
That's equivalent to going long on some penny garbage like MULN or Gamestop and lotterying into a 4 bagger on the MoThER oF aLl ShOrTSqUeEzEs.
The above is to tell you to stop following Wall Street Bets, Wall Street Silver, Stocktwits, and other public relations firm/marketing department-managed dumpster fires, stop gambling on 0DTEs, make less trades, go outside more, and enjoy your life while this planet still lasts.
Once everything is gone, it's gone forever.
Just like Atlantis, the Mayans, and the Dinosaurs.