NQM2024 - Short beautiful prediction of High of the day using ICT and the tools! target was 1/3 ADR, on highs we also have a beautiful SMT with closely correlated assets!
NQ
Nasdaq, DJ and SP500 selling has startedIn my opinion today the market shifted from buying to selling. The shift was mostly obvious in DJ30 but I think all will fall heavily this week.
Disclaimer: Not a financial advice. Do your own analysis before investing or trading
SPY May Rally Above $540 Before You Know It...My research continues to support more Bullish trending for the SPY and other US major indexes.
I keep seeing others propose a market crash scenario - week after week... after week.
I certainly hope you were not following their suggestions too closely - because the SPY has rallied more than 7% from the recent lows. That's a lot of losses piling up for anyone caught on the short side of the markets right now.
Watch my video. Learn how I read the markets in a different format. And learn how to use my research to help you become a better trader.
I've posted many training videos on TradingView - please spend some time checking them out.
Get ready for a potentially explosive move in the SPY - targeting $545+... possibly rallying above $560 before the end of June 2024.
NASDAQ. Weekly trading levels 13 - 17.05.2024During the week you can trade from these price levels. Finding the entry point into a trade is up to you, depending on your trading style and the development of the situation. Zones show preferred price ranges WHERE to look for an entry point into a trade.
If you expect any medium-term price movements, then most likely they will start from one of the zones.
Levels are valid for a week, the date is in the title. Next week I will adjust the levels based on new data and publish a new post.
The history of level development can be seen in my previous posts. They cannot be edited or deleted. Everything is fair. :)
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I don’t play guess the direction (that’s why there are no arrows with direction), so zones (levels) are used for trading. We wait for the zone to approach, watch the reaction, and enter the trade.
Levels are drawn based on volumes and data from the CME. They are used as areas of interest for trading. Traded as classic support/resistance levels. We see the reaction to the rebound, we trade the rebound. We see a breakout and continue to trade on a rollback to the level. The worst option is if we revolve around the zone in a flat.
Do not reverse the market at every level; if there is a trend movement, consider it as an opportunity to continue the movement. Until the price has drawn a reversal pattern.
Don't forget to like Rocket and Subscribe!!! Comments are welcome. Feedback is very important to me!
US Markets May Rally 60% to 100% On Strong Technical DataI posted a similar video yesterday, but it was taken down because I screwed up the content. So, I'll try to post this video without messing up the content.
The US markets (particularly the NAS100 - as shown in this video) will likely continue to move in a strong bullish price trend - even against the multiple divergences and other technical peak/exhaustion patterns over the next 3 to 4+ years.
Far too many people simply don't understand the dynamics at play right now, with the superheated US economy and the predatory Fed processes creating this parabolic Bullish price move.
Be prepared. Many people will be picking tops for the next 3~4+ years, and you are going to hear a lot of FEAR in their voices. You must attempt to understand the true market dynamics at play and stay away from group-think.
Hope you enjoy this video.
Pre-Market Analysis: May 9th, 2024 $ES & $SPYMarket Observations:
The S&P 500 futures NYSE:ES and S&P 500 ETF AMEX:SPY have consolidated with low volume over the past two days.
Trading Strategy:
Given the current range-bound price action, I am not actively seeking trades around the 5200-5210 level.
Instead, I am looking for a breakout from this range accompanied by increased volume to establish a directional trend.
Bullish Scenario:
A sustained breakout above 5210 suggests a potential rally towards 5240.
Entry: Long after a pullback that finds support above 5210.
Note: Short positions may be considered if weakness emerges around 5210.
Bearish Scenario:
A sustained break below 5200 could lead to a decline towards 5180 and potentially 5150.
Given the recent buying pressure, this decline would likely be swift.
Entry: Short positions may be considered, but with limited size due to the potential for quick reversals.
Overall:
This analysis provides a framework for potential trading opportunities based on the current market conditions.
Like and Retweet if you found this helpful!
Disclaimer: This information is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Please consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Potential Ascending Triangle (NQ Futures)NQ Futures could be trying to setup an ascending triangle to catch bears short at the bottom with major upside potential with a breakout and confirm.
Will almost certainly coincide with data/news that will either play out a bear trap or a bull trap on the same timeframe for the next let the market takes.
Often these patterns forming at the bottom of a range end up being bull traps but anything can happen and it's best to be prepared for whatever happens.
4H Inverted Cup & Handle NAS100Analyzing NAS100: Identifying Long-Term Trends and Potential Selling Positions
Introduction:
In this video, we'll dive into a long-term analysis of NAS100, uncovering key patterns and trends that could inform our trading decisions. By examining the inverted cup and handle pattern and the emerging downtrend on the 4-hour timeframe, we aim to provide clarity on potential selling positions and assess the overall sentiment in the market.
Identifying the Inverted Cup and Handle Pattern:
The inverted cup and handle pattern is a classic technical formation characterized by a downward price movement followed by a consolidation period resembling a cup, followed by another downward movement forming a handle. This pattern often signals a bearish reversal, indicating a shift in sentiment from bullish to bearish.
Spotting the Forming Downtrend on the 4H Timeframe:
On the 4-hour timeframe, we observe the formation of a downtrend, marked by consecutive lower highs and lower lows. This trend suggests sustained selling pressure and reinforces the bearish outlook for NAS100 in the near term.
Target Levels for Selling Positions:
Based on our analysis, we have identified multiple levels that could serve as potential targets for selling positions. These levels are strategically chosen based on key support and resistance zones, Fibonacci retracement levels, and other technical indicators. Traders may consider these levels as entry points for short-selling NAS100, aiming to capitalize on the anticipated downward movement.
Clarity of Stance on NAS100:
Our analysis leaves no room for ambiguity regarding our stance on NAS100. The convergence of the inverted cup and handle pattern with the forming downtrend on the 4-hour timeframe strengthens our conviction in the bearish outlook for NAS100. This clarity enables traders to make informed decisions aligned with the prevailing market dynamics.
Signs of Bullish Euphoria Waning:
Finally, it's essential to acknowledge the signs indicating that the bullish euphoria in the market may be losing steam. Market sentiment plays a significant role in driving price movements, and recognizing shifts in sentiment can be invaluable for traders. As we assess the technical landscape of NAS100, we remain vigilant for further indications of a weakening bullish bias.
In conclusion, our analysis of NAS100 underscores the importance of understanding long-term trends and patterns in shaping trading strategies. By leveraging technical analysis tools and staying attuned to market dynamics, traders can navigate the markets with confidence and precision. Thank you for watching.
Don't Panic! Nasdaq Bear Breakout May Signal Trading RangeNasdaq Market Analysis Report
Overview
The Nasdaq Composite Index has displayed a bearish breakout from a prominent top pattern on the daily chart. This pattern followed a strong bullish trend, indicating a potential shift into a trading range rather than a fully-fledged bear trend. I'll analyze where the market could find a bottom, explore potential trading strategies, and offer a market outlook.
Bear Breakout and Trading Range Potential
While the April breakout was strong, a transition period into a trading range remains likely due to the preceding bull market. Identifying the range's bottom is crucial for pinpointing trading opportunities.
Support Levels and Market Direction
Key support areas to watch include:
- Previous All-Time High: A natural support level.
- 200-Day Moving Average: Historically significant indicator.
- 50% Pullback: Common retracement level in major trends.
- Weekly Bull Channel Trendline: Provides underlying support.
- Round Number Levels: $16000 and $15000 offer psychological support.
Market sentiment will be influenced by whether bears continue to hold the current scenario, preventing any substantial breakouts above previous highs.
Trading Strategies
- Bullish Approach: Consider selling volatility (e.g., put spreads with 45 DTE) near the identified support levels.
- Bearish Approach: Selling around current prices with a stop at the recent all-time high could work. Look for double/triple tops or trade resistance from the 50-day MA.
Conclusion
The Nasdaq likely faces extended correction towards either the 200-day MA or the weekly bull channel's lower trendline. Price action around these areas will provide clues to the market's true direction, allowing for suitable adjustments to your trading strategies.
All you should Know about Nasdaq (ICT)In fundamental analysis, we observe a market surge following a liquidity uptake beyond the all-time high, marking a new peak in NQ. However, inflation rates indicate that the Federal Reserve is hesitant to reduce interest rates. Even with a 5% interest rate, inflation is on the rise again. This suggests that the Fed may abandon the idea of lowering interest rates and maintain them at 5% until the year's end.
Nevertheless, last week witnessed positive outcomes from companies such as Tesla, Microsoft, and Google, which revitalized market sentiment and led to a resurgence. However, concerns linger regarding the possibility of the Fed raising interest rates by half point, which could pose challenges for the market.
In technical analysis, we observe the price targeting the sell side for Tuesday, February 30th, 2024, retracing to the gap on Monday, April 15th, 2024, above the equilibrium and within the premium, allowing new sellers to enter. The next target is the order block from Tuesday, January 16th, 2024.
More possible downside for NQPrice has moved for ERL(ATH) to IRL(Weekly Bullish OB) which created a MSS on the weekly time frame.
Price has retraced nicely off of the Weekly OB and is now entering premium of the current dealing range on the daily
- This week we will not trade on Monday as there is no news and will be expecting accumulation.
- If market sentiment has truly shifted I am expecting to see Monday accumulation, Tuesday to create the high of the week into that daily FVG, and then expansion lower to reach for previous weeks low.
- If that Daily FVG is violated I’ll be expecting ATH again.
NQ Aiming for All Time HighsNQ & ES Are looking Strong, And Respecting Bullish PD Arrays, And April usually having a Rally going into May, Am expecting NQ to hit All time Highs.
Nasdaq: Support? Check! ✅The support at 17,372 points seems to be holding: Yesterday, the Nasdaq touched down on the red line once again, but immediately used it as a springboard for a further upward swing. This is good news for our primary scenario, as there is still a long way to go until the top of the magenta wave (i) is reached. If the Nasdaq continues to defend the 17,372-points mark so bravely, it will keep its distance from our (45% likely) alternative scenario of a new wave-alt.(ii) low in the blue Target Zone (coordinates: 16,424 – 15,118 points).
MNQ Mid-Week Outlook 4/24Gone private but still here grinding everyday.
Im expecting a weak NQ NAS NASDAQ NAS100 whatever you want to call it.
Short story is buyside purged and HTF bearish delivery. Long story is yet to be told via lower time frame price discovery expression. My bias is to the downside.
Target is a standard deviation of the opening price projected below the open price. That's a low hanging objective if price follows this narrative, however a run lower would not surprise me.
NQ Scalping Zones 4/25Zones have kept me safe no matter what news is coming out. All I focus on is my levels and trading within the ranges. Come join the team and bank!!
Nasdaq Analysis: Fibonacci Retracement and RSI DivergenceThe Nasdaq has reached an intriguing point around the 17200 area, where it sits at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level from the previous swing low. Price action appears to be responding to this level on lower timeframes, and we've also observed a divergence on the RSI indicator on the H4 timeframe, coinciding with the price attempting to move out of oversold conditions. We are considering a scalp position with a potential take profit at the 38.2% Fibonacci level, and possibly at the Point of Control (POC) Volume for an extended take profit.
$SPX over perform NQ | Shift towards valueBeen tracking this one for weeks now as we've formed a bottom and reclaimed support.
We think across markets, we're seeing a macro shift away from speculative tech and towards value. TVC:SXXP (European SPX) could be forming a bottom vs SPX as well.
What this over performance could look like remains to be seen. Could be more defensive in a downward move or if we catch support, it could be over performance to the upside.
Regardless, the real message here is the shift away from US tech for the foreseeable future.
Finally breaking through to bull side RSI on the weekly and AO flipping bullish.
not touching NQ for a good while.
Something to note is the original support bottom on this chart was the Nov '21 top across markets and Jan '23 was market bottom.
SELL NASDAQAs you can see on the chart,
The market has depleted all the buyers power in the last up move (as shown on the chart) and got overtaken by the sellers.
Now we'll wait for the market to go up to our Selling zone at 17369.62, SL and TP as sat on the chart.
For further questions doon't hesitate to ask!
NQ-M2024: Q2 positional short trade setuphello TradingView members,
after all kinds of analysis done, when possible future events taken into account, now it is time to translate into risk management analysis and bias. this is related only to the current leg, we may go lower than the target as long the stop-loss is not triggered.
the idea is about sharing this setup is to allow also others to consider a possibility, to think about a scenario that may mature into the right trade setup.
do not treat the whole as holy bible but as risk management practice for a bias. it is just an idea. personally, I do trade this setup also in narrower time frames and I would scalp in addition during the process, but each person has own strategy and own approach to the market and trading the market.
feel free to comment, try to do that in a productive manner, so the oversight over this idea would allow fine tuning and improvements. let us see how the market to show this setup in a hindsight. again, feel free to comment and to contact me directly.
sincerely, all the best,
Fluke
Will NVDA Gap Hold for ES?E-mini S&P (June) / E-mini NQ (June)
S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 5062.25, down 30.25
NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 17,658.50, down 222.25
E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ futures finished lower for the fourth session in a row. Most crucially, the S&P tested our rare major four-star support at 5044-5055, this pocket aligns multiple indicators as well as the gap close on February 21st, ahead of NVDA’s earnings release. Given the relentless move down, failed bounce attempts and this critical area of support, it is imperative the bulls show up today.
Bias: Neutral/Bullish
Resistance: 5078-5082**, 5094-5097***, 5110*, 5119-5123.25***, 5127-5131.75***, 5147.25-5153.75***, 5162.75-5167.25***, 5182-5185.50**, 5207.75-5213***
Pivot: 5069.50-5075
Support: 5062.25***, 5044-5055****, 5026-5027.25**, 5018**, 4983.50-4994.25****
NQ (June)
Resistance: 17,767-17,796***, 17,850-17,874**, 17,959-17,988***, 18,051-18,072****, 18,131-18,167***, 18,226-18,254***, 18,326-18,343***
Pivot: 17,719
Support: 17,604-17,638***, 17,463-17,493***, 17323-17,372***, 17,106***
Micro Bitcoin (April)
Yesterday’s close: Settled at 61,130, down 1,790
Bias: Neutral/Bullish
Resistance: 63,350-63,700**, 64,660-64,937****, 66,555-67,595***, 68,172-68,590*, 70,410-70,800**, 71,795-71,815**, 72,110-72,530**, 73,410-73,600***
Pivot: 62,535
Support: 61,632-61,680***, 59,700-60,830***, 57,410-58.250***
Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com
Disclaimers:
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Stocks Slammed, Is a Reprieve In Order?E-mini S&P (June) / E-mini NQ (June)
S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 5104.00, down 63.50
NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 17,876.25, down 303.00
E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ futures finished sharply lower for the second day in a row as both geopolitics and rising rates act as major headwinds to investors’ risk appetite. We are viewing this pullback as healthy and timely with price action in both testing into the aftermath of NVDA’s February 21st earnings report, which was a pivotal catalyst in the market’s next leg higher. While we do not view the driving narratives (geopolitics and rates) to be stale, we do believe a reprieve in prices is in order? Major three-star resistance in the E-mini S&P comes in at 5127-5131.75, and this is a modest first target upon an attempted rebound, with 5147.25-5153.75 marking a 50% back into the week’s range. To the downside, a failure to hold first key support at 5094 would erode this thesis and encourage another wave of selling. As for the E-mini NQ, the February 21st settlement comes in at 17,767 and stands as a line in the sand that has so far withstood an overnight test, but a break below here would also encourage added selling.
Bias: Neutral/Bullish
Resistance: 5120-5123**, 5127-5131.75***, 5147.25-5153.75***, 5162.75-5167.25***, 5182-5185.50**, 5207.75-5213***
Pivot: 5104-5112.25
Support: 5094**, 5081.25**, 5069.50-5075***, 5044-5055****, 5026-5027.25**, 5018**, 4983.50-4994.25****
NQ (June)
Resistance: 17,938**, 18,005-18,072****, 18,131-18,167***, 18,226-18,254***, 18,326-18,343***
Pivot: 17,881
Support: 17,841-17,867**, 17,767-17,792****
Micro Bitcoin (April)
Yesterday’s close: Settled at 63,560, down 3,610
Bias: Neutral/Bullish
Resistance: 64,660-64,890***, 67,170-67,595***, 68,590*, 70,410-70,800**, 71,795-71,815**, 72,110-72,530**, 73,410-73,600***
Pivot: 63,700
Support: 62,535**, 61,632-61,680***, 60,830**, 57,410-58.250***
Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com
Disclaimers:
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
$ES and $NQ Long term outlook.Indices haven't had a good retracement for a while now, so I'm looking to see if we can reach low for some liquidity.
With the current climate of the world and the FED not cutting rates, it also adds to the idea.
I'm looking to target the Weekly OB on SEED_ALEXDRAYM_SHORTINTEREST2:NQ
And the Swing Low inside the Weekly FVG on ES
The Local Line in the Sand for ESE-mini S&P (June) / E-mini NQ (June)
S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 5207.75, down 52.50
NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 18,196.75, down 163.00
E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ futures finished lower after a barrage of negative news. CPI for March was a touch warmer than expected, coming in roughly one-tenth higher across the board before a poor 10-year Note auction lifted yields further. The U.S. 10-year Note yield rose by 20bps from 4.36 to 4.56, and according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, the odds for a rate cut in June fell to 16.9%, while July shows a 43.7% probability. Now, we brace for an ECB policy decision, PPI data at 7:30 am CT, producer prices are a leading indicator of consumer prices and a 30-year Bond auction at noon CT.
This has certainly put stock index futures on their back foot. Still, on a positive note, the low in each of the E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ that traded in the immediate aftermath of the CPI release was never taken out during the intraday session. For the E-mini S&P this low aligns to create a critical line in the sand with the 50% retracement back to the February 13th low at 5163.75-5176.50. We will look for construction above here to help shift tides more positively as the rest of the week unfolds.
Bias: Neutral
Resistance: 5203.75-5208.25***, 5214.75-5217**, 5223-5226.50***, 5030.75**, 5241-5244.25***, 5260.25***, 5272-5274.25***, 5280.75-5285**, 5295.25-5300.75***, 5207-5208.50***
Pivot: 5191.50-5196.75
Support: 5185-5188.25**, 5163.75-5176.50***, 5145-5147.25***, 5123.75-5124.25***, 5112.25***
NQ (June)
Resistance: 18,215-18,224***, 18,264**, 18,313-18,350**, 18,405-18,414***, 18,474-18,498**, 18,568-18,607***, 18,691-18,709***
Pivot: 18,185
Support: 18,102-18,118*** 18,051-18,070***, 18,006-18,029***, 17,767-17,881****
Crude Oil (May)
Yesterday’s close: Settled at 86.21, up 0.98
Crude Oil futures slipped early yesterday due to the broader risk-off sentiment, and saw further selling on larger builds within the weekly EIA inventory data. However, price action held major three-star support (newly adjusted to 84.55-84.69 and 84.90-85.10) before geopolitical premium brought a fresh bid as news flow called an Iranian strike on Israel imminent.
Price action is again slipping into the onset of U.S. hours and with support well-defined, we will look to a pivot and point of balance at 86.02.
Bias: Bullish/Neutral
Resistance: 85.29**, 86.58-86.71**, 86.91-87.10***, 87.07-87.22**, 88.37-88.64***
Pivot: 86.02
Support: 84.90-85.10***, 84.55-84.69***, 84.04-84.09**, 83.71***, 83.12-83.25***
Micro Bitcoin (April)
Yesterday’s close: Settled at 70,410, up 1,055
Bias: Neutral/Bullish
Resistance: 71,355**, 72,110-72,530**, 73,410-73,600***, 74,800-75,300***, 80,503***, 82,110***
Pivot: 70,355-70,410
Support: 69,990-70,005**, 68,540-68,785**, 67,75-68,034***, 66,330-66,500***, 64,715-65,260***, 62,955-63,435**, 60,830-61,680***
Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com
Disclaimers:
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
