ROMANCE OF THE THREE KINGDOMS - Nokia $NOK - The IndestructibleI entered a long position on Feb. 6, 2021, based on momentum, their promising NASA 5G contract and US government 5G cybersecurity contract, but I have been more focused on PLTR and BB. At the urging of a dastardly intelligent fellow who pointed out similarities between my BB analysis and NOK, I dug a bit deeper into Nokia, and it turned out to be one of the most interesting stocks on the market. There is a lot to parse...
"Nokia Bell Labs is an American industrial research and scientific development company owned by Finnish company Nokia. With headquarters located in Murray Hill, New Jersey, the company operates several laboratories in the United States and around the world."
- 9 Nobel Prizes have been awarded for work completed at Bell Laboratories, as well as 4 Turing Awards.
- The C Programming Language, as well as Unix was developed here.
With the 5G/6G arms race heating up, it is time for the 100 year old think-tank to be leveraged once more.
(Hard) SPECULATION:
- "Big tech trades human futures" - Zuboff, The Age of Surveillance Capitalism
- IMO, modern institutions are very cunning... Everything they do has purpose.
- From certain notorious figures in the cryptocurrency community in the previous bull market, I have learned this, and scaled it into larger markets... The behaviors are the same, but even more predictable due to the dominance of algorithmic trading. Just trade "whale" for "institution".
- Nokia is seen in a negative light by retail, and the whole WSB farce has further smeared their image to traditional retail investors. Many investors instantly reject the notion of learning about this company.
- We have seen the clients of Big Tech influencing geopolitics to an astounding degree in the past few years through social media and surveillance capitalism... I believe that financial institutions have now caught on and now are cashing out on social media to move the markets...
- Forgive me if you have disdain for WSB and the "Robinhood" investors, but I believe that there is big money behind them... BlackRock, JPM, etc... They are a vehicle for change, and a perfect fall guy for market manipulation.
- Some of the DD are likely released by BlackRock themselves... I've seen some of the account's post histories. "Robinhooders" are looked down upon, yet under the guise of anonymity, they can release DD that far exceeds any big name analyst report? It smells fishy!
2 Possible threads of speculation:
- Accumulation - Inst. ownership as of Q4 2020 is only 5.30%, shares float is 5 Bn... child's play to manipulate with high float. Other high growth companies that institutes are betting on, such as PSTG or AMBA have 90%+ inst. ownership.
- Impulse Wave 1 was a test pump... To gauge the retail demand levels. Institutions love to do this, and only create a melt up when an ideal motive wave can be created with public participation.
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FA:
"Have you ever wondered how you can enter the world of IoT or meet the increased requirements of the emerging 5G use cases? Are you in need of tools to seize the opportunities of 5G? Would you prefer to win new revenue with low risk and minimal investment, instead of spending CAPEX and time building an IoT network and developing new services?
Welcome to Nokia WING, a managed service that offers operators the ability to support their enterprise customers with global IoT connectivity across borders and technologies. It is live today with a truly global footprint but also prepared for the challenges of tomorrow – no matter what directions it is taking.
There is nothing else like WING on the market." - Nokia website
- Like Blackberry, a comparison can be made to the mining sector. At the start of new bubbles, CapEx for juniors get filled very quickly. If we make a comparison to precious metals miners... this company is a first wave major, not a second wave junior.
- Nokia, Elisa and Qualcomm together have achieved the fastest 5G speeds recorded in the world.
5G Market:
Market size value in 2020: USD 41.48 Billion
Revenue forecast in 2027: USD 664 Billion
"The global 5G Applications and Services Market is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 25.8% from 2019 to 2027"
(According to 180+ page research report by Fidelity National Financial)
25.8% CAGR sounds good to me...
Verticals:
- Manufacturing
- Energy & Utility
- Media & Entertainment
- IT & Telecom
- Transportation & Logistics
- Healthcare
- Retail
- Agriculture
- O&G and Mining
- BFSI
- Construction
- Real Estate
Sounds like a service that has unlimited applications... My favorite type of technology!
- The global market for Internet of things (IoT) end-user solutions is expected to grow to 212 billion U.S. dollars in size by the end of 2019. The technology reached 100 billion dollars in market revenue for the first time in 2017, and forecasts suggest that this figure will grow to around 1.6 trillion by 2025.
- 5G/6G is the LIFEBLOOD of IoT.
- "5G is much more than just fast downloads; its unique combination of high-speed connectivity, very low latency, and ubiquitous coverage will support smart vehicles and transport infrastructure such as connected cars, trucks, and buses, where a split second delay could mean the difference between a smooth flow of traffic and a 4-way crash at an intersection."
- What is the number 1 problem that EV wishes to solve right now? Completely independent self-driving. 5G/6G is part of the solution! Why is Elon Musk focusing on Starlink now? It is the solution for Tesla's biggest roadblock.
- 5G infrastructures are the neurons for IoT!
- 5G is huge. It is of UTMOST importance. Why would the US go to such lengths to cripple China's Huawei for YEARS? Huawei seems to be their number 1 target!
Key contracts and partnerships:
- The FIRST company contracted to set up internet on the moon. Partnering with SpaceX.
“Why would astronauts on Earth have access to 5G at home, but not have the same access to the same technologies when they are on the Moon?”
Thierry Klein, head of Enterprise and Industrial Automation Research Lab at Nokia Bell Labs, is addressing the gap between communication technology on the Moon and technology astronauts have access to on Earth. In October, Nokia was named a NASA partner for its Tipping Point technologies for the Moon program, receiving a $14 million contract to deploy the first LTE/4G communications system on the Moon.
- 5G/6G will be essential for space travel... Sounds like ARKX will need to look into this one!
- Dec. 1, 2020 - Nokia and AT&T extend Worldwide IoT Network Grid (WING) collaboration to deliver seamless IoT connectivity to enterprises around the world, and support upgrades to 5G
"As IoT networks transition to 5G and with Nokia WING also supporting 5G network slicing, AT&T will be able to partition its 5G network into multiple networks that can deliver specific capabilties to its IoT customers and support various use cases."
- Jan.14, 2021 - Nokia selected for U.S. Federal 5G Cybersecurity Project
- Main collaborator for the Hexa-X 6G European Union Project... "Being a 2.5-year project within EU’s Horizon 2020 ICT-52 program, Hexa-X is a consortium of 25 key players from adjacent industries and academia. Nokia has the overall lead and Ericsson the technical manager role in the project. Hexa-X is a broad collaborative initiative to frame the 6G research agenda and lay the groundwork for a long-term European investment in future wireless network technology." - Ericsson's website.
- "Google Cloud and Finland’s Nokia are teaming up to develop cloud-native 5G solutions for communications service providers and enterprise customers, the companies announced in a Thursday (Jan. 14) press release.
The companies plan to develop solutions that combine Nokia’s 5G operations and networking capabilities with Google Cloud’s AI, ML and analytics technologies. The solutions will run on Google’s Anthos platform."
Yes.. a Google partnership.
Take the below figures with a grain of salt... Sources are varying and biased, and there needs to be more rigorous audits in this sector. However, you will get the idea:
5G Hardware Market Share 2020:
#1. Huawei - 28%
#2. Nokia - 16%
#3. Ericsson - 14%
(These figures vary depending on the source, but it is clear that these 3 are the leaders by far)
Investors accumulate shares, Research companies accumulate patents. Those who own the patents are the power brokers in the industry.
Total 5G patents owned 2019:
#1. Huawei - 13,474
#2. Qualcomm - 12,719
#3. Samsung - 9,299
#4. Ericsson - 8,116
#5. LG - 7,694
#6. Nokia - 5,554
There is an argument for Standard-Essential Patents (SEP) ownership... supposedly, which patents actually matter, and Nokia owns about 3,000.
I am no expert on IP law or 5G technology, but these figures gives me a rough estimate, and are an indicator to the larger picture.
Robert L. Stoll from Faegre Drinker's report has some good secondary sources if you want to dig into this.
A quick calculation of Value metrics:
- Current Mcap of 23.35 Bn.
- 16% market share of projected 664 Bn... Market size refers to the maximum total number of sales or customers your business can see, often measured over the course of a year.
- 664 Bn x 0.16 = 106 Bn Revenue, assuming Revenue = Sales for now, 106 Bn / 5 Bn shares = 21 SPS. Assuming P/S Ratio of 1, Market Value per Share = $21.00 USD by 2027.
- Current price = $4, 21/4 = 5, so a 400% gain in 6 years based on a P/S Ratio of 1.
- Tesla's current P/S ratio is 23.78, and Zoom had a high of 108.95 with the lowest being 25.83.
Does it sound right to you?
TA:
- MACD has crossed over on lower time frames to bullish, and is converging on the 1D.
- Current Price action shows fake consolidation... Motive Sequence has already begun.
- The first run up to 10 must be wave 1 of the motive sequence, as this corrective wave has gone below the previous high.
- Fib levels for wave 3 and 5 are around 14 and 21.
QA:
First, the problem with options...
- 142,040 Open Interest for options expiring 2/26/2021
- 158,201 Open Interest for options expiring 3/05/2021
- 434,917 Open Interest for options expiring 3/19/2021
It is possible that these need to expire before we move up again. However, all is not lost:
- Heavy speculative call interest, with large short interest (in this case short volume) that are pushing up against major resistance levels can quickly pop higher. This indicates that they have consolidated and are getting ready for the next large move.
- NOK had 370.0 ATM IV on Jan. 27, 2021, where the MM was forced to gamma hedge and we got the big but short-lived pop. Currently 50.2. This can be interpreted two ways. Low IV is good if organic growth and MM pinning pressure to ease, but abnormally low IV compared to the historic IV, where there is large negative gamma exposure means a big directional move is imminent.
- Once again, call skew is turning bullish. Option interest always leads the price!
Institutional Behavior:
- 442 institutional investors, and rising... More than Palantir Technologies...
- Average 13F ranking rising (calculated from Total # of 13F shares and # of Funds holding) - institutional interest is GREATLY decoupled from stock price! Extremely bullish indicator. Price is what you pay, Value is what you get.
Q4 2020 All 13F Filers Prior Change Hedge Funds 1 Prior Change
In top 10: 2 4 -50.0% 0 (0.0%) 1 (0.06%) -100.0%
Funds Holding: 442 435 1.61% 78 (4.7%) 72 (4.48%) 8.33%
13F shares: 264.118 Million 255.145 Million 3.52% 99.008 Million 100.991 Million -1.96%
% Ownership 4.7021 4.5423 3.52% 1.7626 1.7979 -1.96%
New Positions: 76 83 -8.43% 15 11 36.36%
Increased Positions 126 121 4.13% 20 26 -23.08%
Closed Positions 55 52 5.77% 10 19 -47.37%
Reduced Positions 130 106 22.64% 29 24 20.83%
Total Calls 16.306 Million 18.936 Million -13.89% 4.064 Million 7.473 Million -45.62%
Total Puts 15.368 Million 15.437 Million -0.45% 3.146 Million 3.439 Million -8.5%
PUT/CALL Ratio 0.94 0.82 14.63% 0.77 0.46 67.39%
I always look for the big players, and what they are doing with their money. Words are cheap. Follow the money.
- **Blackrock increased their position 333,000,000 shares during 2020, an increase of 21 million shares held from the year before (7% increase) and representing a 5.90% ownership of the company.**
- State Street increased their position by 2,039,035 in Q4 2020, bringing their total to 2,372,220.
- Susquehanna increased their position by 5,030,133 shares as the 6th largest holder in Q4 2020, with 10,849,501 total and significantly decreased their options positions, both puts and calls.
- Renaissance Technologies increased their position by 4,149,027, with 7,688,612 total as the 10th largest holder in Q4 2020.
- **Citigroup increased their CALL position by 85,900, decreased their Put position by 52,600, and sold 1,347,617 shares.**
- **Citadel increased their call position by 1,266,800 to a total of 1,680,100 and decreased their Put position by 283,700... They still have 2,567,900 Puts as of Q4 2020.**
- Nokia has a Short Volume Ratio generally ranging between 10-15... GME currently has 15-25 to give you an idea, and this puts it in the range of the top 10 companies with the highest short volume on the market.
- NOK has a 5.3 Bn shares float, making the stock unbelievably easy to manipulate via short selling. The short interest is useless here, short volume is what to look at.
Speculation:
- I have noticed that BlackRock and JPM have been massively accumulating shares in companies that I believe have the deepest of value, and are future tech monopolies (PLTR).
- Such movement has been preceded by RenTech, Citigroup, and Citadel, RenTech and Citadel being top Quantitative Hedge Funds.
- Speculative interest appears in the Robinhood community.
- Extreme media FUD campaigns and short-selling follows to depress the price, while BlackRock and JPM accumulate enormous amounts of shares.
- The Quants are playing MM for BlackRock and JPM. They are RUTHLESS! I have suffered for 2 months at their hands at Palantir!
- The news will be out soon... This won't stay down here much longer. Information moves quick nowadays. Maybe Cathie will buy in.
To be an investor in such conditions, one must have the strongest of conviction. One must do their own DD... Conviction cannot be outsourced.
Strategy:
- TP1: 14.00
- PT: 21.00
- SL: 1.90
- RRR: 7.68
- Timeframe: 1 year
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“Appear weak when you are strong, and strong when you are weak.”
― Sun Tzu, The Art of War
Credits:
- Special thanks to ScamV, who is unfortunately suspended from this platform and whose Twitter I cannot promote due to House Rules.
