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Niftyoutlook

Emphatic jump by Nifty on the back of IT and few other sectors.24K is done and dusted now what can we expect? As indicated earlier IT was the index to watch out for this week. There was a cup and handle formation and cup and handle breakout in the sector after lot of consolidation. Few other sectors that were red hot were Energy, Infra and consumption. We had also indicated that Mid and small cap shares will face the brunt of profit booking as there is a sectoral shift towards large caps. Nifty has given a closing above important Fibonacci level of 23931 and it has opened the door for Nifty to grow towards the targets of 24246 and 24707 if we get a closing above today's high of 24087. 24K closing is done and dusted. Weekly closing tomorrow and more importantly monthly closing above 24K will has potential to give further boost to the market in the medium and long run. Important support levels to watch out for Nifty will be at 23931, 23750 followed by 23338. Most important Mother line support of 50 days EMA is at 22912 now. Nifty will come back once may be tomorrow / next week or next month. to test one of these support. A word of caution: Many sectors like Sugar, Electronic manufacturing, Textile, Defense, PSUs,Energy, Infra, Fertilizers (Agro) and Speciality Chemicals, health care and insurance, consumption are expecting good budget which will favour them. Incase the budget is disappointing they will be the first to bear the brunt of the market. So be cautious with your stop losses while you enjoy the upward ride.
NSE:NIFTY
by Happy_Candles_Investment
NIFTY - High probability Correction ahead..!!!The move testing the highs of 21st JUN is about to conclude, following which the correction begins in one larger degree. the trendlines & supports can be seen in the charts Important points of support will be, SI - 22,665 SII - 22,535 to hold temporarily SIII - 22,130 ~ 21,830 SL - Any higher moves beyond 23,750 PS: The correction has equally arguable alternate probabilities, to be exact 2. 1. The correction from 20MAR'23 (16,828 levels) - A LP Outcome 2. The Possibility of an extending triangle - meager probable outcome. *The discussed outcome is highly probable among all these. However, the data from the market's forthcoming sessions are mandatory for confirming the same - to eradicate the alternatives!!! Short positions can be taken from 23,690 ~ 23,700 levels Trade Accordingly.
NSE:NIFTYShort
by WDG_Dinesh_Gengarajan
NIFTY - A clear Swing correctionAs mentioned before the logic remains valid for today. the market is expected to inch higher to the levels mentioned below & after which the correction progresses. The levels RI - 23,526 (1.382 FE) R II - 23,580 ~ 23,598 (TL (mid) Intersection - very strong); a SHORT trade here is rewarding!!! RIII - 23,636 (1.414 FE); highly unlikely to be tested in this move SL: Any surge above 23,640 will make the trade void (however, the confidence is so strong that this will not be the case). TP: will be updated in succeeding posts(the presence of ambiguity due to 2 possibilities, progression in correction will help to sort it out!). Trade accordingly
NSE:NIFTYShort
by WDG_Dinesh_Gengarajan
Nifty has taken a good support.Nifty has taken a good support at 23340 and given a closing above 50 hours EMA at 23537. Shadow of the candle for now has turned positive. There is a strong resistance in place near 23548. 23455 (50 Hours EMA) and 23340 are good supports for now. Above 23548 the next resistances can be 23568 and 23667. Let us see if Nifty rally has gained some steam after little bit of consolidation to go above the next 3 strong resistance. There can be some Profit bookings and pressure to sell once these 3 levels come near.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by Happy_Candles_Investment
NIFTY - On the verge of a correction There is a possibility that the market is being interrupted by the intersection of two strong resistances (mid-trend line intersection) which calls for a correction in the monthly time frame. However, the penultimate move is yet to be completed. The market is about to test the previous day's low @23,442.60 & after that, there will be a struggling upward move testing again at 23,664. The correction progresses from there to the 21,280 ~ 21,200 levels Today support for the upcoming penultimate move will be, SI - 23,442.60 SII - 23,435 ~ 417 SIII - 23,382 NO recommended SL for this trade setup (Any substantial increase above 22,664, calls off the trade). The resistance to the final move is 23,664 & is expected to surpass the said levels by a minimum margin. Trade accordingly.
NSE:NIFTYShort
by WDG_Dinesh_Gengarajan
Nifty Facing Strong resistance from a probable temporary top.Nifty Facing is seemingly facing Strong resistance from a probable temporary top. The high of today 23664 will not be easy to cross for now as the shift in the mood seems to be of profit booking. However if you look at FII and DII numbers very both positive and Nifty ended in negative. This can also be an indication of sectoral shift from the big players towards some large caps and other underperforming sectors from some sectors which were popular since last 2 to 3 months. Chemicals, Selective IT and Banking seem to be picking up steam. Resistance at the upper side are at 23579, 23664 and 23751. Supports on the lower side seem to be at 23491, 23364 (Important support) Mother line 50 hours EMA, 23336, 23201, 23050 and finally 22908. Below 22908 bears will take control of the market.
NSE:NIFTY
by Happy_Candles_Investment
Fibonacci and Trendline resistance stopping Nifty.Last 4 days the fibonacci resistance and the trend line resistance are stopping Nifty from going ahead and growing ahead. This resistance is at 23338. If we get a closing above this level doors for the next Fibonacci resistance and target will open. In that case Nifty can reach 23450, 23542 or even 23897. In case the resistance acts and blocks Nifty from going further the support levels will be at 23205, 23060, 22772 and 22555 (50 Days EMA, Mother Line). Below this zone Bears will get some power and can drag Nifty to 22146, 21825, 21355 (200 Days EMA, Father Line) or even 21282. Let us see how US FED Pause is taken by the market tomorrow. There is also a talk by FED 1 rate cut during 2024. Nasdaq as of Now is positive indicating rally in IT continuing a little bit but let us see how it goes.
NSE:NIFTY
by Happy_Candles_Investment
Low of today is very critical support for Nifty.Low of today 23206 is very critical support for Nifty. If that is broken tomorrow or later during this week. It will be a typical sign of a top or double top formation. Indicating weakness which can find Nifty searching for supports. Supports for Nifty from current level are at 23206, 23074, 22995 (Mother Line Very Important support 50 hours EMA), Most critical support zone for Nifty In case of double top formation will be between 22712 and 22616(Father Line support 200 hours EMA). Below this zone will be Bear territory which can drag Nifty to 22408, 22094 or even 21268. On the positive side if the levels of 23206 is not broken. The resistances on the upper side or targets for Nifty can be 23339, 23412, 23542 or even 23700+(23500+ looks little optimistic rather than realistic looking at current formation of the chart.) There are some important events like US Fed rate hike decision. If there is no rate cut announced or if the commentary of US FED chairperson there is a possibility of profit booking by all counters. In case of a rate hike (unlikely) the Bull run can end for now. Watch out the Macro and Micro events like US FED Meeting and any development on allies of the ruling coalition in India behaving mischievously with caution. keep proper stop losses in place.
NSE:NIFTY
by Happy_Candles_Investment
Could not sustain ATH as Fibo level pulls Nifty back. Nifty after making a new all time high 23411 could not sustain the levels, as the Fibonacci resistance at previous high of 23338 pulled it back. Important resistance levels for Nifty now is the zone between 23338 and 23411. If the Nifty is able to give a closing above 23411 the next resistance will be channel and trend top near 23518. 23518 will be another tough resistnace to conquer. If this resistance is taken down the door towards the Nifty fibonacci level target of 23897 will open. On the lower side the support levels for Nifty are near 23229, 23159 and 23081. Below 23081 Nifty will become weak. Final supports for Nifty will be at 22895 and 22629. Below 22629 there is pure bear territory. Closing below 22629 (Unlikely for now) will end the current Bull run.
NSE:NIFTY
by Happy_Candles_Investment
Nifty Short, Medium, Long Term 10-Jun-24 to 14-Jun-24Nifty Short, Medium, Long Term 10-Jun-24 to 14-Jun-24 Nifty closed at 23280 (22530 ) and touched low & high of 23382 & 21287 Different result than exit poll caused panic and market saw biggest drop after Covid in 2020. Nifty hold inside the Trendline Support and Resistance as shown in the graph. As predicted market was highly volatile. But recovered after the fall and now near all time high It may move past 24000 or can go even upto 21000. depends on budget, 100 days plan govt going to propose. RSI and stochastics levels was up from last week (59 % & 95% Respectively). Stochastic in overbought levels. Market need to cross 24000 as two trend line resistance ( Shown in the Chart between 23900 and 24100), if not can book partial profit and can wait for market to correct as there is a strong resistance in that zone. Nifty 23290- Short term (Up ) Nifty might move up and It may touch 24000. nifty still have resistance / support around 22819 (Fibonacci extended resistance target) again and crossed resistance decisively. Nifty at PE 22.2 near to historical average, hence to be cautious. Short term support 22590( MA 21 days and trendline), 22200 ( Trend Line) and 21700 Trend line Support as shown in the chart. Medium term resistance 24000 medium term Support - 21300 Long Term Market expected range bound between 24000 ( Trend Line Resistance till Jun 2024) & Support at 20800 ( Fib Support) 20225 / 20000 ( Fib Resistance),19500 expected in 2024. Q3 results are average except bank & Nbfc stocks, further up move will have target of 23150 ( Trend Line), 23500 ( Fib Resistance). Nifty also have resistance at 25000 ( Trend Line). If market close above 24000 decisively. All Companies so far posted results are average other than Bank & Finance stocks which posted Good results, IT posted muted growth, Maruti posted good results, Reliance, Ultratech posted good growth. Other manufacturing, capital goods companies results are awaited in coming weeks. Nifty bank 49803 (48666)- As proposed from 47250 level nifty bank jumped more than 7%. Investment decision in Nifty bank, bank stocks helped in portfolio. Still can continue to invest whenever dip in bank and other nbfc stocks. As insisted for last 3 months Banks & Finanace Stocks are really good and will give good results, as expected Q4 results are good especially for Axis Bank , Indusind bank ,ICICI Bank definitely can be added as portfolio stock. Kotak Bank ( after the fall due to RBI regulation can be added slowly whenever there is a dip), Bank of Maharasthra ( Buy on Dips) ,Canara bank( Buy on Dips) can be accumulated slowly as well. Following Finance Stocks can be added as it posted good results are Bajaj Finance, Bajaj Fin Serv, Manappuram Finance, suryoday small fin,Motilal Fin, Chola Finance, ICICI Securities. Other stocks like Dr Reddys, Natco Pharma, Cipla, JK Cements, Apollo tyres, Biocon, Coforge & persistent Sys can add these stocks to portfolio. Please buy in parcels and every dip of Index and every dip of individual stocks (2-5% of portfolio on each purchase for long term) Comments : Post Elections, only way Market will start grow higher by reduction of interest rate by RBI on a staggered manner till it reaches 5%. US fed rate reduction also expected from Jun/ Sep 2024. Market may correct if any global news till 19500 as there is strong multiple fib support in this range. Nifty IT 35218(32420) broke the Major support at 33350 and went down upto 32420. Tech stocks revived in last two trading session. Nifty IT Stocks like TCS, Infosys, Wipro gave muted results in Q4 2024. Can be added for short rally as it fell sharply, however strictly for long term and also in portions slowly on each fall ( say 5-10% of total investment in IT stocks). Whenever there is such dips and new lows ( in the last 1 year) We can add slowly considering 2-3 years. It need to break above 35786 ( Fib) to reach 38000 needed to further move up. Future of technology stocks are in high pressure due to AI as it is reflecting in US and Indian technology stocks. every dip of individual stocks (2-5% of portfolio on each purchase for long term)As mentioned in the past 1.5 month, nifty reached the near term target 22819 (Fibonacci extended resistance target) again and crossed the resistance decisively and touched 23000. Nifty PE 22.2 below the 3 year Historical Average of 22.5.
NSE:NIFTY
by karthikss
Nifty nearing Channel top again, Can it break the glass ceiling?Nifty is nearing the Channel top again, Can it break the glass ceiling is the question the current top of the channel remains somewhere between 23303 to 23422. If we get a closing above 23422 the floodgates / glass ceiling towards new Nifty highs will be broken. The door towards new record highs of 23772 or even 24369 will be open. In case Nifty is not able to cross 23303 or 23422 the support levels for Nifty will be at 23091, 22793, strong support of 22762 (50 hours EMA) and 22580 even stronger support of (200 hours EMA). Nifty rally turns negative and bears come out of comma if we get a closing below 22500 (Very unlikely). In that case bears can drag the Nifty towards 21984 or 21577 region.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by Happy_Candles_Investment
Doji candle formed in Nifty today. Does it indicate upside?Today we saw a formation of Doji candle in Nifty. Doji candles indicates uncertainty. Colour of the Doji candle shows the bias which is green as of now. So the bias still remains positive with formation of stable government on cards. However on any new or noise from coalition allies the Bears can make a strong comeback. Doji today indicates that Bears are also equally active and are waiting for their chance of action. So be aware / be conservative in your choice of stocks. In terms of Cricket if we consider this a T-20 match this pitch is not a 200+ pitch. It is rather a green top where if a team scores 150-170 runs they can be difficult to chase. So what should investors do? They should keep stop losses. Stop losses are the best friends. Keep stop losses and trailing stop losses. Stop losses protect your capital. Trailing stop losses protect your profits. Nifty Resistance Levels: 22910, 23053, 23192, 23338. Nifty Support Levels: 22630, 22456, 22139, 21781 and 21277. Below 21277 is a bear territory and absolute hunting ground of bears.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by Happy_Candles_Investment
Very Powerful Comeback Candle sort of Bullish Harami.Nifty made a massive comeback today after the dust of election result settled. Whether NDA's comeback to power and can the Bull Run sustain is the key question. Both are interlinked as of now it seems. However on the technical grounds the formation on chart between yesterday and today's candle is a sort of Bullish Harami (Positive Candle formation). A positive candle formation in the next trading session will confirm the formation. Now the supports for Nifty are at 21261 (Father Line) and 200 EMA, 22139 (Mid channel support), 22413 (Mother Line) and 50 EMA and 22456. Resistances on the upper side for Nifty will be 22695, 22855, 23053, 23192 and finally 23338 (ATH Resistance).
NSE:NIFTYLong
by Happy_Candles_Investment
Nifty closing this week looks like Calm before the storm.FII, DII and Retail investors are all awaiting Exit Polls and Actual results of election to follow thereafter. We have already discussed the best and the worst case scenarios. The candle formed today is Doji exhibiting indecisiveness. The support at which Nifty is standing is Mid channel. The other support which has been taken is 50 days EMA. Right now everything looks in balance. Lot of overpriced stocks corrected. Lot of underpriced stocks which gave good results exceled. Many more underpriced Banking and IT stocks are looking like value buys. Many overvalued Psu stocks look like them might again run further in case of expected results. Everything looks like it is on a tipping point. + or - 5 to 10% move depending on results is a definite possibility. DIIs have been buying all the way. FIIs have been selling all the way. Perfect recipe for a thriller to unfold next week. Everything is on a standstill. This weekend might be a calm before the storm. Nifty Supports: 22392, 22057, 21827, 21712 and 21221. (Worst case scenario 17597 in case the expected results are not seen in election). Nifty Resistances: 22672, 22829, 23140, 23226 and 23398. (Best case scenario between 23500-23600).
NSE:NIFTYLong
by Happy_Candles_Investment
Nifty Enters crucial Support Zone. Nifty has entered Important support zone. This zone extends from 22495 to 22386. Today's low of 22417 is also a very important level below which we will have only the support level of 22386 which is the 50 days EMA. Below 22386 bears will try their best to drag the Index to the levels of 21712 or even 21208. (This looks improbable as of now but you never know). DII was buying even today in this drastic fall while FII are selling relentlessly. With only 1 day left before we will have exit polls and then the actual election results on 4th June. Investors should brace for a few more days of volatility. If the result go against popular opinion then we can see further lower levels which are mentioned above. RSI has taken a turn and Mid channel has provided a support as of today. Resistance on the upper side are 22508 and 22829.
NSE:NIFTY
by Happy_Candles_Investment
Further correction likelyNifty traded in the daily fair value gap and taking resistance at the mid of the long term upward channel yesterday. There are 2 scenarios that could play out. The unlikely of the 2 is it breaks the resistance trend line and move up towards the top of the channel. The second more likely scenario is that it could test the bottom of the fair value gap OR even come lower to test the order block below that. 22600 or 22500 could be likely in this case. Safe traders might withdraw their money form the market and wait for election results. This could trigger a deeper retracement.
NSE:NIFTY1!Short
by OldMonk13