Niftylevels
IF PRICE ACTION IS WRONG THEN I AM HAPPY TO LOOSE MONEY.Go short, I cannot shout more. A little change of direction does not hurt a trend, a trend takes huge momentum which is missing till now, DJI for instance has just retraced back from risk aversion levels of crisis haphazard, nonetheless they have shifted to uptrend no doubt but India lacks that fundamental support from Foreign Investments and also our Domestic Institutions have filled their belly of buying equities as much as possible. The index has a bit more room in downtrend, smaller up ticks would occur for sure but at the end April is going to be a BEARISH month.
Sandwiched between Support and Resistance with positive biasNifty is perfectly sandwiched between strong support and strong resistance but the bias which was negative for most of March is fading. It is a very very critical day tomorrow. Nifty has already closed on Wednesday above a critical resistance of 17060 giving it a positive bias. Now the most critical resistances that remain to be conquered are 17137 and 17261. Above 17261 Nifty can race to 17408 levels where there is another critical resistance and that a big one of 200 Weeks EMA. Nifty closing the month above 17137 will be great for momentum to be carried forward to April 2023. If Nifty can close above 17261 it can be a momentum shift and Bulls can think of making a come back in April in that case. Strong Support on the lower side remain at 16825 levels.
Tomorrow might be a dropping expiry.Fibonacci Retrace tool is like a wonder in Century, I began to notice nowadays. So the Quadrants explained in the picture tells that the little but some bullish energies that have been lying near nifty option chain and FUTs, its because FIIs have lost most of their holdings in their sell outs and DIIs have to balance of their Balance Sheet before THE REAL EXPIRY OF FINANCIAL ACCOUNTS. But none the less GLOBAL powers are going in a SEESAW, Indices open higher due each other's end resulting cycle chain and mostly due to Dow Futures, then the Indices are hedged in shorting them because a lot of volume can be seen in Equity Shares. The weightage stocks take the Index Higher at that moment Hedge Funds short it and thats whats happening. So 31st March will be the day when this volume in equity will ran off and Indexes wouldn't fluctuate momentum like they have been. Lets hope today Dow returns negative because I have 10 lots of 17000 PE 6 April Expiry. :0
Until there is clarity there is chance of trend reversals.U.S. markets had started to recapitalise with strong volumes and Federal Reserve had yet again thrown the markets into dungeons, sentiments for far ended future is dark but calmness in Traders mind is soothing who do not indulge into straightforward long calls, and have fun with PUTS. Theme of Global Securities and ETFs is increasing at higher ends but Equities have shown bad faith to the Investors at large. Soon there will come another retracing peak and everybody will start to think the Downtrend ends here and Uptrend begins, it could be because it is much required and estimated now, not even now then when? But technical analysis is giving vibes of Shorting the NSE indices each and everyday, but fundamentally speaking going long is always the choice we all like and end up thinking more about it and then ultimately doing the human error. Bots are vitalised well enough to trade in any environment but are they configured to see an end of a trend and signal it to us? No only TA can do that.
Nifty - Bearish Trend1.As per the trend line we see a rejection at 17200.
2.The last two times at the top of the trend line we saw a fake breakout and the prices came within the trend line and markets turned bearish . This time it has reached the top of the trend line and has got a major rejection. Expecting further down move from here.
3.Supports are at 17020:16960;16930;16840.
4.Resistance are at 17120;17160;17200
5.Conclusion - Trend seems to have turned bearish and more likely a sell on rise markets.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by me and is solely for the purpose of knowledge.
NIFTY Monthly Divergence Indicates Bearishness for Months !!This is not to scare anyone ! But I have rarely seen any divergence on Monthly NIFTY50 chart. A monthly divergence indicates bearishness that might last for several months. Good thing is that, divergence has about 30% failures, and bad thing there is about 70% chances of happening this. My initial target would be about 15500 and further direction may be decided based on price action there.
Whats Happening on the weeklies:
Good thing is that, the early weekly candle appears it is getting rejected from previous weekly low of July 21. However, almost four trading sessions to go!!! Breaking these level would be more downwards. However, some pull back from this level is possible. The hourly chart below is also showing some bullish divergence, indicating some reversal from here. But God Knows how long that will hold.
Nifty Poised Nicely in the critical Week.Very Important week for Nifty and other global indices as Us Federal Reserve meets tomorrow. Global Market are looking for some respite, pause in rate hike or loosing of the hawkish stance and Global Baking systems are feeling the heat of unprecedented 500bps hike by US Fed in las one year. Positive news on this aspect will be greeted by global markets and we could see an all-round relief rally after the banking catastrophe that we saw around Silicon Valley Bank and Credit Suisse issue. Indian banks and Growth process undoubtable is on a robust path but we can’t alienate ourselves from what is happening around the world. Some analysts believe that in the long run India stands to achieve more from multiple emerging scenarios in the long run. Short term support and resistances for Nifty are at:
Nifty Resistances: 17144, 17225 and 17546.
Nifty Supports: 17061, 16828 and 16723.
nifty50 spot view in dcbNSE:NIFTY presently trading at around major support zone and as well as 50% fibonacci retracement zone, hence we may see a reversal move from hereon.
Disclaimer - This chart analysis is only for educational purpose. Do proper research before trade/investment or consult with your financial advisor. This expressed opinion/view/analysis isn't a trade/investment advice/recommendation. SEBI unregistered independent trader/analyst.
NIFTY : Levels for 16th Mar
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Morning Mantra - 15th March 2023Dear All,
We are just seeing the effect of the breakdown level of 17300. Wherein, it seems that Nifty is on its journey towards 16800.
On Monday, we had seen Nifty taking a support at 17180 . However, unfortunately the stated level of support was violated in yesterday’s market.
So, as of now, we will have to wait and watch for Nifty to either make a breakout of 17180 level , or to take a major support at around 16800 .
Till then be stock specific and be cautious.
Regards,
Alok Daiya
SEBI Registered Research Analyst