Perfect Candle Stopped by Perfect Resistance. As you can see in the chart. It was a perfect candle taking a perfect support near 17795 zone (Today's low 17800). From where it kept on going North until it was stopped by a perfect resistance of 50 days EMA which was at 17960 (High of the day was 17954.55). Those who doubt Technical analysis and say that these are just post mortem lines without any meaning should have a look at the chart and see the importance of Technical analysis.
Also look at the trend line or Asymmetrical line resistance generating from recent high of Nifty at 18887.6 which stopped Nifty twice before once near 18703 on 14th December and once 18201 on 24th January. That line acted as a resistance today again and As Nifty was surging ahead and went upto 17954.55 brought it back to 17929.
Also you can see the 50 days resistance at 17960 which pushed the Nifty down before it could can touch it as the Nifty ended the day near 17929.
How to overcome these two important resistance?
Ans: They can be overcome by a gap up opening.
How can we get a gap up opening?
There is US Inflation Data tonight . If the data is good we might get a gap up opening tomorrow and once Nifty sustains above 50 EMA and trend line resistance...We can see it go further and far....
Critical day tomorrow.
Niftyanalysis
Morning Mantra - 14th February 2023Dear All,
Once again in the yesterday's trading session, we had got to witness how crucial the level of 17800 has become for Nifty.
Wherein a strong Resistance is being faced at this level. As even yesterday, Nifty gave us a closing of 17770.90. So somehow Nifty seems to be struggling at around this level of 17800.
Therefore, it has now become very important for the index to crossover and to sustain above this level of 17800 for at least week. As it is only then, that the probability of witnessing the levels of 18170 and 18400, will increase.
Until then we can see that it’s a crucial fight between the Resistance and Support where
Resistance = Support = Resistance
So, in this volatility we must witness a positive and a stable closing of above 17800, which will be on our radar.
In the meanwhile, stay stock specific and follow the Cherry Picking Strategy.
Regards,
Alok Daiya
niftyDISCLIMER
All the information shared in this chart is provided for strictly educational purposes only. This chart is sharing information are based on the theory of technical analysis. This is not an offer to buy or sell stocks, futures, options, commodity, forex, interests or any other trading security. Back test yourself before jump into live market consult your financial adviser and use proper risk management.
Morning Mantra - 13th February 2023Dear All,
As we told you on last Monday, about witnessing the formation of a Piercing Pattern on the weekly chart of Nifty, which was somehow indicating a bounce back in the Market. Fortunately, thereafter, we did witness a beautiful weekly closing of above 17800 in Nifty.
So for now, with the support of 17320, the level of 18170 will be our Resistance level once again.
Furthermore, the impact of the budget and the quarterly results are somehow indicating that there’s a huge probability of witnessing a beautiful rebound in the Market once again, from this level of 17800 towards 18170 and 18400.
So in the meanwhile, along with being stock specific, following the Cherry Picking strategy will be a good idea here.
Regards,
Alok Daiya
Nifty Consolidating Between Strong Support and Strong ResistanceNifty on a weekly chart is consolidating between strong support and strong resistance with a positive bias starting to appear for medium to long term. Strongest support for Nifty is between the zone of 17352 and 17430 (50 Weeks EMA). Strong resistance zone for Spot Nifty is 17916 and 18027. However crossing 18027 is not enough for bulls to take charge of the market. Bulls will regain the control only after we get a closing above 18266. Bears can overpower the market if the level of 17352 is broken. Things are interestingly poised with Adani saga turning new leaves every day once the fizz of the matter settles completely we may see a proper trend emerge.
Morning Mantra - 10th February 2023Dear All,
Fortunately, we got to witness a closing of above 17800 for two consecutive days. This altogether, strengthens our expectations towards the level of 18170 for the near term.
However, it will be suggested to keep patience for now, since today is the last trading day of this week. As, the weekly closing will somehow help us to understand the Market's momentum for the upcoming days.
Furthermore, if the Index manages to give us a weekly closing of above 17800 today, then our support level will once again shift from 17320 to 17800, as we usually say that,
support = resistance = support.
So for now, continue being stock specific and wait and watch for today's closing.
Regards,
Alok Daiya
Morning Mantra - 9th February, 2023Dear All,
What a beautiful day it was yesterday, which seemed like a perfect “8 ke thaat”. Wherein Nifty had given a beautiful closing of above 17800.
Just as we had stated in our weekly analysis on Monday itself, similarly, perfect Piercing Pattern on the weekly chart can push the index towards the level of 17800 and then further to 18170.
Moreover, a contribution from all the sectors is somehow indicating a positive post budget impact on the Market, which may take the index towards the 18400 level in coming days.
Also, in the meanwhile, following the Cherry picking strategy will be a good idea.
Regards,
Alok Daiya
NIFTY Top Down AnalysisThe idea here is about Nifty 50 Index :
My view is Short term Neutral to Bearish (upcoming week) & then bullish for the below observed technical factors.
Points as per TA observed on a Weekly, daily & Hourly Chart:
Hourly Chart:
1. Bearish Crab Harmonic Pattern observed on a 1H & 4H chart. Target price & Stop Loss provided on chart as per below:
2. Ichimoku is Neutral to bearish since Chikou Span is below the price range & last trading hour was closed below the Senkou Span B:
3. Heikin Ashi, 1H before last closing session was indecisive, however the last hour closed on positive note, Pivots & 20 EMA are bearish since the last trading day was below the previous day closing as per below :
Daily Chart:
4. Bearish NenStar Pattern observed on 1D chart. Target price & Stop Loss provided on chart as per below:
5. MACD is below signal line, with RSI @ 55.51 on daily chart with multiple divergences (MACD, MACD Histogram, RSI, VWMACD) as per below:
6. Raising wedge formation with over bought zone confirmation alongside RSI as per below:
7. Ichimoku in Strong buy since Chikou Span is above the price range & trading above Senkou Span A as per below :
Weekly Chart:
8. Last week Candle almost ended as a tweezer top as per below:
9. A huge cup formation completed on weekly chart with Handle formation pending with Retracement support around 0.382 FIB with the least possibility according to the current trend as per below :
10. A 3 Drive harmonic pattern in formation observed, note since the market is on a strong trend have considered the retracement levels from 0.382(38.2%) to 0.5(50%) FIB with retracement targets & drive 3 targets on weekly chart as per below:
11. Ichimoku is currently under consolidation, however, the Chikou span is above the price range &trading above Senkou span A which is a strong bullish in long term as per below :
12. Wyckoff theory has a BOS (Break of Structure) since previous high on Oct 2021 & CHoCH(Change of Character) since Sept 2022, the CHoCH support is exactly @ 0.382 FIB on 3 Drive pattern & also a support on raising wedge bottom, with multiple divergence observed (MACD Histogram, RSI, MOM: Momentum, MFI: Money Flow Index). Therefore, 18096 target gets a multiple validations as per below:
13. Additional information: OI (Open Interest) max build for options expiring 15th Dec is around 18,600 for both CE & PE and Max PE is around 18000.
NOTE: 14th Dec FOMC meeting outcome will also be a factor to be considered.
Targets & Stop Loss provided in chart and screens for different time frames.
Disclaimer: “The above is an Educational idea only and not any kind of financial or investment advice (Non SEBI registered). So, please do your own DD (Due Diligence) before any kind of investment”.
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Morning Mantra - 8th February, 2023Dear All,
Just as we had stated yesterday, similarly we did witness some selling pressure in the Market yesterday itself.
Wherein, once again even after making a high of 17811.15 in the initial Market hours yesterday, Nifty failed to sustain above its stated Resistance level of 17800 and ultimately gave a closing of 17721.50
Therefore, we can observe the importance of the 17800 level. Just as strong as it was as a level of support earlier, similarly it is now proving to be a strong level of Resistance for the Market.
Besides, with the support level of 17320 we are still hopeful.
Moreover, this may be due to the Results season and post budget effect that Nifty seems to be confused once again. So, having a little patience will be beneficial for now. Until the time Nifty decides its direction towards either a breakdown of 17320 level or a cross over of above 17800.
So, in the meantime, continue being stock specific.
Regards,
Alok Daiya
Nifty 06 Feb 23 to 10 FEB 23 Short ,Medium and Long TermNifty 06 Feb 23 to 10 FEB 23 Short ,Medium and Long Term
Nifty closed at 17854 ( Prev close 17604)
Short Call was given temporarily ast week.
Nifty touched a low of 17355 broken the 17435 support and sustained above MA 200- 17290 Level.
Accumulate on dips was provided with Support mentioned above and it worked as well.
It was a buying opportunity at that level.
Market was highly volatile last week due to budget announcement and Adani stocks crash.
As expected and mentioned in previous week, the Capital Expenditure was focussed in the budget with consecutive 3rd year with 30% increase in Capital expenditure.
By announcing new Tax Regime, more freehand was provided to tax payers in chossing their investment.
Overall its a growth oriented budget before the next year election.
Insurance Sector investment to face severe pressure in the coming days and will consolidate as Section 80C importance is slowly getting vanished. Rather common man likely to invest more in equities ( through SIPs).
Short Term Strategy is Neutral
Nifty short term
Index crossed crucial 17800 level and trading at 17854.
Investore can accumulate the good stocks and buy nifty / next 50 /Nifty Bank Index / Stocks slowly on dips with support provided below.
Nifty support at 17819(0.5 fib old) /17785(feb22 high) /17716/17566/17435(dark red color horizontal line) /17355(new low) /17300 MA200.
Nifty Resistance will be at 17900/18000(Aug high) /18109(sep high) / 18122(0.5 fib new) /18268 (Dec22 end Jan23 high) /18355(Jan22 High)
Nifty will be range bound from 17300 to 18265. Like last week, this support levels are shown in Green & Red thick Horizontal lines.
Nifty need to break decisively above 18268 to reach 18800-18900 in short term.
Medium term target
Medium term target is 18900
In case if it falls below 17300, then next support is at 16800, which will act as major support.
Long term
Target 19500/20500 still in intact.
Medium to Long term Target for Nifty around 19,000. Strong closing on Friday and a good budget have increased the hopes of a post budget rally in Nifty investors are hoping that the worst of Hindenburg-Adani Saga is behind us and the momentum gained on Friday can continue further.
In any case in the medium to Long term target of Nifty is Point B shown in the chart which is around 18800 and 19,000. How Nifty reaches there is the point. Either we will see Nifty take the route of point A to point B directly or we may see further consolidation and Nifty might go from A to C first and then it may go from point C to point B.
The routes are purely based on assumption and mathematical models which might not be very accurate. The purpose of chart is to provide education. The time when Nifty will reach point B can’t be estimated accurately as there are many unknown factors and surprise elements at play.
One important deduction, 17386 is a major support for Nifty which should not be taken down on weekly closing. If 17386 is broken the trend will become negative.
Nifty swing trading strategyHow to trade from now?
Nifty Buying only = above 18106.
Nifty Selling only = below 18063.
It's the analysis with paid atm machine indicator on hourly chart.
🌈 Advice: 1.) Take reversal trade near these levels, or
2.) Wait for Breakout and Sustainability.
📢 Disclaimer: We are NISM Certified so we don't hold any position in Nifty Future or Options as per SEBI guidelines. Take trades as per your own technical analysis, we are just educating you. We are not using any other indicators for finding out of levels ATM Machine Indicator Levels are plotted automatically.
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Most choppy Day of The Year and where it can lead usWe saw one of the most choppy day of the year 2023 and it has brought us to a junction from where NIFTY can go either side the resistances on the upper side will be 17733, 17780, 17933 and finally 17982. Supports for Nifty will be near 17550, 17505, 17407 and final support of 17353. Nifty strongly rejected the level of 17353 and shot upwards although closed in Red (Negative) but this gives hope to investors that 'Hammer candle' formed during the penultimate hour of trade yesterday can turn things around. with US Fed Rate hike in expected lines IT will try to push the Nifty up. We all know what is pushing the Nifty downwards.
trading plan for 2nd Fevruary 2023Nifty future and banknifty future analysis and intraday plan in kannada.
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please consult your financial advisor before taking any action.
----Vinaykumar hiremath, CMT