NG! time to sellafter we have had a rejection at the level of the supply zone we can take the sell position
Natural Gas
EUR/USD analysis: US-EU natural gas gap narrowsRecent moves in the EUR/USD exchange rate have been driven primarily by the price differential between natural gas in the United States and Europe, rather than by the ECB's historic rate hike last week.
Over the last 90 days, the correlation coefficient between EUR/USD and US-EU gas price differentials is 0.88, indicating a very strong relationship between the two variables.
The price of gas in Europe has decreased drastically over the course of the past week, with the Dutch TTF benchmark falling by nearly 40% from its highs of €330/Mwh to its current level of €190/Mwh. This was aided by higher-than-expected EU gas storage levels at this time of year, as well as speculation in Europe about a natural gas price cap.
When measured in dollars per million British thermal units ($/MMbtu), the European Dutch TTF is around $61/MMbtu right now, or about $53 more expensive than the US Henry Hub gas price, but significantly lower than the previous price-gap peak of $92/MMbtu.
The narrowing Henry Hub-TTF price spread from $92/MMbtu to $53/MMbtu has helped the EUR/USD rally from 0.987 to 1.011.
What next can we expect?
This week, European nations are expected to announce long-awaited energy emergency measures aimed at lowering skyrocketing gas prices and alleviating the pressures associated with a complete Russian gas shutdown.
If the market sees the announcements about energy policy as bad news for European gas prices (Dutch TTF), the spread between European and US gas prices may continue to narrow, which would sustain the euro in the short term.
However, despite the fact that the price difference between European Dutch TTF and US Henry Hub gas has narrowed, European gas is still nearly eight times more expensive than US gas. This continues to be a significant drag on the European growth outlook, thus capping the euro's upside potential in the medium term.
Idea written by Piero Cingari, forex and commodity analyst at Capital.com
✅NATGAS LONG FROM SUPPORT🚀
✅NATGAS will soon retest a key support level
So I think that the pair will make a rebound
And go up to retest the supply level above
LONG🚀
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Natural Gas | European Natural Gas Pipeline Closed IndefinitelyGazprom, the russian state-owned energy giant, cut indefinitely the flow of natural gas through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline into Germany citing an oil spill in a turbine.
This looks like the weaponization of energy flows by the russian authorities.
Russia will not restart gas supplies to Europe until western sanctions are lifted, official said.
My chart scenario is a triple top formation with short term price target for Natural Gas of $9.5.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
NATURAL GAS FUTURESThe gas currently faces a very strong resistance zone and has formed us DOUBLE TOP and start to come down very, very strong
Jamie Gun2Head Trade - Buying Natural GasTrade Idea: Buying Natural Gas
Reasoning: Buying natural gas at a support level, currently in a strong uptrend
Entry Level: 8.909
Take Profit Level: 9.980
Stop Loss: 8.620
Risk/Reward: 3.71:1
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NG1!9. 1. 22 Natural Gas I went through a lot of structural things and reversal patterns, and some less obvious observations. You need to look at Natural Gas trading higher, and this is something you see on the higher time frames. It may go lower. You want to think like a buyer and the seller... and then you're less likely to be blindsided. I discuss some of this strategy as well.
NATURAL GAS - 240 MINS CHARTThe Structure looks good to us, waiting for this instrument to correct and then give us these opportunities as shown on this instrument (Price Chart).
Note: its my view only and its for educational purpose only. only who has got knowledge in this strategy will understand what to be done on this setup. its purely based on my technical analysis only (strategies). we don't focus on the short term moves, we look for only for Bullish or Bearish Impulsive moves on the setups after a good price action is formed as per the strategy. we never get into corrective moves. because it will test our patience and also it will be a bullish or a bearish trap. and try trade the big moves.
we do not get into bullish or bearish traps. we anticipate and get into only big bullish or bearish moves (Impulsive moves).
Just ride the bullish or bearish impulsive move. Learn & Know the Complete Market Cycle.
buy low and sell high concept. buy at cheaper price and sell at expensive price.
Keep it simple, keep it Unique.
please keep your comments useful & respectful.
Thanks for your support....
Natural gas and oil could signal capitulation.I’ve been searching for interesting patterns with critical commodities in bear markets. I noticed something interesting. Oil and gas seem to pump before and during the early stages of bear markets. When the largest and most demoralizing drop happens, Oil and gas seem to lead the way. Their previous pump is erased and the market goes with it. Good luck all!
NG shows weakness and lost momentum !!NG was very bullish at the start of 2022. This massive Uptrend stopped in June and led to a correction at the 0.618 Fib line.
After that, NG returns to the same old high, respecting the trend line and forming a significant Resistance.
the RSI is showing a considerable divergence as the second high lost momentum to continue pushing higher.
A break of the trend line in the next weeks will signal a huge short opportunity as the price may reach the 0.236 Fib line and if it breaks through the 0.382-Fib line as the second potential target.
Natural Gas (NATGASUSD): Waiting For Breakout 💨
A lot of questions about Natural Gas:
The price is currently coiling around 8.8 - 9.65 resistance.
I am patiently waiting for its bullish breakout.
I believe that a weekly candle close above that structure will trigger a strong trend following move.
Only after the confirmed breakout, I will consider buying.
For now, be patient.
The market may be stuck around the underlined levels for a long time.
❤️If you have any questions, please, ask me in the comment section.
Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
natural gas bear tradebear flag and its target for downside.before that as per wave it should go slight up hen fall like a knife...
✅NATGAS SWING LONG🚀
✅NATGAS is going up currently
And the pair broke the key structure level
Which is now a support, and after the pullback
And the retest, I think the price will go up
LONG🚀
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Natural Gas Short Term Move DownWith profit taking this morning, looking for a good reentry point at $8.91 - $9.13 on Natural Gas.
If the bears get greedy and push the price below $8.91, stay on the sidelines until $8.91 is reclaimed.
EUR/USD analysis: Euro to fall below parity on EU gas crisis?Europe's wholesale natural gas price (Dutch Title Transfer Facility TTF ) rose to levels not seen since the aftermath of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, bolstered by a mixture of continuing supply disruptions from Russia and soaring demand for power generation in the midst of persistent heatwaves across Europe.
Gazprom ( GAZP ) announced that European gas prices could increase by 60% this winter, as the company's exports and production continue to fall as a result of Western sanctions.
From a macro standpoint, the European gas crisis is wreaking havoc on the economy of the Eurozone and this effect has already been quite visible on the EUR/USD trend in 2022. European and American natural gas price differentials have been widening to their all-time highs, and the EUR/USD currency pair is just 1.7% far from hitting parity again.
EUR/USD fundamental analysis: EU/US gas price spread plays a key role
According to the most recent NYMEX/CME Group data, US Henry Hub spot prices are currently trading at a $57/MMbtu discount ( THD ) relative to Europe's Dutch TTF benchmark as of mid-August 2022.
The link between EUR/USD and Henry Hub-TTF spread has increased significantly over the course of the summer, with the rolling 90-day correlation coefficient rising to 0.82. This is basically telling us that the lower US natural gas prices trade compared to the European Dutch TFF prices, the stronger the downward pressure on the EUR/USD pair.
Along with the economic growth and interest rate disparities between the two regions, the more severe natural gas crisis that Europe is experiencing compared to the United States is now a key macro factor affecting the EUR/USD exchange rate.
EUR/USD forecasts: The pair could fall below parity if EU/US gas spread widens further
If the European gas crisis worsens in the coming months, the price differential between EU Dutch TTF and US Henry Hub natural gas could widen further, which would likely cause the EUR/USD pair to break decisively below the parity threshold.
A de-escalation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, coupled with a decline in the price of Dutch TTF gas, will be a key factor in preventing a further depreciation of the single currency. However, this second scenario appears much less likely.
Idea written by Piero Cingari, forex and commodity analyst at Capital.com
One final drop for natural gas and then a massive bull runWe're looking for one final drop in natural gas prices to complete a wave C for wave 2 before we will start accumulating positions to go long for the next bull run in natural gas. There's an energy crisis that isn't going to disappear anytime soon, there's plenty of fundamental reasons for this huge move we're expecting in wave 3. But in the mean time we're short on natural gas until this wave C is complete.
NATURAL GAS testing the 1D MA50 support.It has been almost 1.5 month since we last updated our Natural Gas (NG) thesis:
As you see the symmetry within this long-term Bullish Megaphone worked perfectly and our sell hit the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) - 1D MA300 (green trend-line) Support Zone and rebounded. If you took that last buy and you haven't booked profits already, it may be a good time to do so if the current Support on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) breaks. The reason is the Double Top formation created on the July 26 rejection. If the 1D MA50 breaks, target again the 1D MA200 at least. This long-term pattern has been very consistent and there seems to be no reason to change that until it breaks either direction.
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Natural Gas: Long at 7.80 NG should find support at 7.80 - 7.85.. It is a good entry point for a counter trend rally to 9
Suncor - Pain to Pleasure and Pleasure to PainThe truth is that the energy sector has been doing really well. WTI Crude appeared to can't stop won't stop, and then Natural Gas appeared to can't stop won't stop.
Now, both NG1 and WTI are going to dump as the Federal Reserve points a nuclear bomb at the so-called "inflation," which in reality are high commodities and high stock prices.
Shortly it will appear that the Party is over for commodities and stocks, and this will provide a great deal of pain for people who have bought this pullback from $53, not realizing that the knife has yet to cut sufficiently deep.
However, natural gas and oil are something that the world cannot do without, for mankind is paralyzed without electricity, and no matter how much of a leftist you want to be and how much of the ESG Kool Aid you've drank, the cold truth is that without coal and natural gas you won't have electricity for your computers, and without oil, you won't have a shipping and transportation network.
A fundamental lack of either electricity or transport would threaten the ruling North American Communist Party's stability, and so they will be maintained, but the prices will drive ordinary people out of the market, and you will see social credit and digital identification-based fuel rationing during this time period, if all goes well for the Communist Party.
(It won't.)
In the process, WTI will set a new high, probably painfully higher than people expect, and in a faster time frame that people expect, but also coming up short of moonboy expectations. I would say that this $350/b as some have predicted is nonsense. I think the number is $180, and then demand destruction will be savagely en route.
For Natural Gas, I believe that Henry Hub futures are going to heatseek $18 after a solid clean out, and then the game will quickly wrap itself up. Look on the upside: at least you haven't been paying $40 like Europe and Australia already has for months.
All of this means that when everything is scary and prices have been driven deep enough to give you the chance to sell low after buying high, energy stocks will begin a real pump. This pump will serve as a bear trap and will be pretty amusing.
Your best bet on Suncor is in the $27 mark with a target above the double top around $62. Frankly, I would say you could see a new all time high over $80, but drawing this on this chart is too hard.
Either way with a $27 entry and a $62 target with a stop below $21, you're getting an RR of almost 5. An entry of $34.60 is more "realistic" for many people, so go for that, and just make sure you don't panic sell if terminal velocity continues on.
Make sure you sell it _all_ at the peaks and buy your family something nice. Remember: stocks won't buy you rice or gasoline. Cash. Is. King.
EUROPE is going to enter into recession soonThe closer the winter, the stronger Russia leverages against Europe become.
Main one being natural gas.
Europe imports 90% of it's gas and Russia was importing 40% of it. Prices were much cheaper than LNG since it was transferred through pipes.
Now, the biggest gas pipeline in Europe - Nord Stream is getting used by Russia as a weapon against European countries. By cutting supply to 20% of pipeline's power, Russia expects Europe to stop supporting Ukraine in it's attempt to defend the country. Surely, Russia plans to cut it completely in the near future when it will damage European economies the most.
Compare this year prices with 2021 and you will be terrified because it grew more than 10 times. And remember that during summer natural gas prices are the cheapest. As winter approaches and when Nord Stream will shut down completely we can easily double in price.
More than 25% of German businesses say they are considering temporary or complete shutdown. Already more than 8% of heavy industry in Germany were put on hold since factories stop being profitable because of increased manufacturing costs.
Bottom line: Fundamentally natural gas prices will grow and European economies will suffer.
By following fundamental analysis lets look at technical:
We updated historical highs, but that was false breakout. It's wise to look for continuation of bullish trend, that's why I draw 2 scenarios.
1. From current price we approach top of the false breakout and after some range push higher.
2. We will be in range for a couple days, using bottom trendline as support. Closer to the end of formation we will squeeze to the previous level and break through it.
What do you think of this idea? What is your opinion? Share it in the comments📄🖌
If you like the idea, please give it a like. This is the best "Thank you!" for the author 😊
P.S. Always do your own analysis before a trade. Put a stop loss. Fix profit in parts. Withdraw profits in fiat and reward yourself and your loved ones
Natural gas: Will Russia's supply cuts lead to new price highs?The price of natural gas has been going up and down like a roller coaster over the past month.
After suffering a severe 45% drop between June 8 and early July, US Henry Hub prices have risen nearly 80% since July 7, recouping all the losses.
What's going on in the natural gas market?
Russia is squeezing gas supplies to Europe via the NordStream (NS1) pipeline, pushing EU Dutch TTF prices above €190/MWh, approaching the record high reached in March.
Gazprom , the Russian energy giant, has announced that it will reduce NS1 daily flow to 33 million cubic metres, or about 20% of its capacity, citing problems with the pipeline's turbines. This puts at risk the region's goal of filling 80% of its storage capacity before winter.
According to recent Bruegel calculations, Europe may run out of gas in storage this winter if demand is not reduced. Such supply concerns prompted EU members to sign an agreement to cut their gas consumption by 15% over the next six months.
The worsening of the European gas crisis prompted a rush for supplies from other major producers, such as gas LNG from the United States and JKM from Asia. These markets are near full capacity for gas exports to Europe, so prices are rising and we may not have seen the peak yet.
From a technical standpoint, price momentum is pushing upward. Nine of the most recent ten sessions ended in the green, a streak that hadn't been seen since late March/early April 2022.
The RSI is now approaching overbought territory (70), but it may still have room to decisively break through this level.
The June bearish divergence thesis, based on rising prices/falling RSI, is now invalidated, showing that fundamental factors dominate technical considerations in the current natural gas market.
NATURAL GAS FUTURESNatural gas has reached a very strong peak. If you trade above it, you will continue to climb strongly if God willing, which is also a showcase area from which we must be wary and thanks.
