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Bitcoin: BTCUST Good retest of old support - Next trade set-up Bitcoin: BTCUSD See how the successful retest of the bigger controlling (until midnight est) parallel took 2 hours to occur at the 6150 level? This retest of the old dynamic support we were looking for around 6515-6500 range has taken an hour to play out as price danced either side of the line but with a low at 6503. It's always a tense period watching, waiting, trying not to get faked into the wrong trade by getting too twitchy. The worst part of any trade, but needs must. It means any stops for longs can be placed at about6490 and just under for small loss if it fails from here. But it shouldn't do now. Stay long until the 6930 is tested and close out. Then look to short from 6940 with stop 50 points above. Be Lucky and if you can't, use stops.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by sumastardon
Bitcoin: BTCUSD Approaching key resistance - next trade set-up Bitcoin is now approoaching important resistance again at the break level/original shorting point from yesterday, at 6445- 6510, with the additional problem of the old dynamic support line that propped up the rallies from the summer lows hanging above it 6515. So it's a near term short for day traders from 6510 with a stop 50 points above but only back to 6300, maybe 6165. We need to look for next long potential for all traders if 6550 is breached on the upside, looking to get long on the first retest of the old dynamic (which we can see waiting just above current price on the chart) so looking to get long if Bitcoin penetrates the dynamic and then comes back down to test it from above and holds, looking for an upside target at 6940 before closing out and going short again. Yesterday into this Morning UK time Bitcoin hit the downside target centred around 5645 for a closed out 800 point gain (yesterday' 3 early trades yielded 200 points on the sell from 6300 to 6050, another 200 to 450 points on the buy from 6050 and then 800 points on the short from 6445 down to the first target cetred at 5645 - so a total return of 1200 to 1450 points yesterday) - before it all went wrong. We were looking to short Bitcoin again as it came up to test the upper parallel (with a stop 50 points above the parallel when touched) which was triggered. But Bitcoin never stopped at the parallel, it's power to contain the wave now spent, and telling us that downward pressure is waning, at least in the near term. So 50 points was lost here. We needed that plan B: watch for breaking of the parallel, then on next pull-back, the parallel must turn from resistance into support, holding up the first decline after breaking above it, showing the trend-change is occurring with this confirming signal, and giving day traders only a chance to go long on the retest (with stops 50 points under the parallel on first touch/first retest from above), looking for a rally back up to 6445 where any longs need closing out.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by sumastardon
Bitcoin: BTCUSD Update on Shorts, next trade set-upsBITCOIN: BTCUSD Update on Positions Not a bad day, so far but need to keep an eye on this short still...day-traders have made 250 points from the short from 6300 early in UK morning, then another 200 to 450 points from the long at 6050 just an hour later, depending on where you took profits and now we're short once more from the highs of the day at 6450 with a tight stop above 6515 which was never hit - and is now about 300 points in profit, so 750 - 1000 points profit today in a market that is down 200. This is what a chart that is so technically perfect can produce in the way of fast profits. If you can stay alert and act quickly this space is made for traders - there has never been anything better so far, in the history of speculation. It may not last forever (not Bitcoin, which is just beginning) but the perfection of the chart - but whilst it does we have to trade it. Also longer- term readers will know that catching this monster has been the long term aim of this quest since the chase began - we really want it tagged, bagged and thrown in the freezer, the ultimate trophy catch for any serious speculator (or investor if you fell better with that). So maybe we'll get a chance for that later...maybe. But like Ahab on the quest to catch Moby Dick, you gotta stay in the boat to have that chance. Time will tell, as always. Right now we're still short...think we can move the stop down to protect some profits...the central parallel is still bossing this impulse wave as we can clearly see from the chart - whilst it stays in control of the move down we can stay short, hoping for another massive bear raid to come out of China which ideally will drive price down hard to at least make a double bottom at 5637 and potentially to then fall further still to 5113-4973 range where it will become a buy again if we see it hit. LONG Story Short Yeah, right. Difficult to try cover all scenarios: Stay short, using the central parallel as exit (break above here, followed by successful retest from above: newbies please beware: ideally you should just follow for a while and check back over older Bitcoin posts on Sumastardon pages on Tradingview.com to get a better understanding of trading break-outs etc). If the call goes to plan and the central parallel continues to control this move, repelling every encounter the short stays on down to 5747-5637 first target. Then we close out. It will probably try to make a double bottom in this range (which could well extend right down to the low in China last night again, at 5561 at the extreme). Still don't think that this range will likely be the final bottom, but it should create some kind of stall at least and really should trigger a bounce if touched (doesn't have to though, those Chinese can get pretty scared at times) so cannot recommend a quick counter rally long here because the stop is too vague right now - for the first time since Bitcoin began to unravel it didn't bounce exactly off a given fixed support line (blue lines) but exceeded it by fully 80 points - so am less sure about exact level to expect a bounce, making a sensible stop impossible to figure right now...but if Bitcoin does come all the way down to the exact low at 5561 within 10 points either side it might be worth day traders getting long with a stop 50 points lower for small loss if wrong. But we need to be ready to turn entire position round on any fall below 5510, shorting down to 5113-4973 range (with stop placed at 5610 if this trade is triggered) and ready to buy back and go long in this important range with a stop 100 points below 4973 - if this range is tested later it's the ideal place to consider a longer term 'investment' in Bitcoin (ie Slinging it in the freezer) as it looks the perfect range to get long again. But if wrong we need a plan B, worked out in advance: to go wrong, firstly the central parallel needs breaking to tell us the pressure is finally lifted, then it needs to use the
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by sumastardon
1
Bitcoin: BTCUSD UpdateBitcoin: BTCUSD So far so bad. It took a while thinking about it but it dives deeper now, hopefully pulled down to the lower parallel where we'll look to take profits if touched, especially if it just slips away on low volumes. Could well bounce off the next listed support at 6165 giving day traders a chnace to loosen their grip for a while, but if it hasn't reached as low as the lower parallel swing traders can probably stay short for now , but we can now lower the stop - the bane of every trader, though sometimes the stop looks very obvious, and sometimes it's way less straightforward, especially trying to understand or second guess different readers risk profiles...and spreads. So best advice on stops: it can rally to 6300 old support and spike to 6376 but should have a real problem at 6445 and off the centre parallel if it manages to get anywhere near it over the coming hours before the far Eastern markets open and the Chinese get their turn to ride the monster awhile. Swing traders need to keep stops just 50 or so points above the centre parallel for now in hope of avoiding any spikes higher. Will the Chinese tear Bitcoin to bits or be kind to it? Maybe 5997 is to be the key that will determine Bitcoin's next move...if it breaks we need to follow (increase positions, newbies should know on day 1 that you only ever increase winning hands, never losers, OK?) So for now run this down to the parallel, then decide if you want to take profits there, on the first strike, no messing, or wait to see if the parallel breaks/cannot arrest the decline... a catastrophic signal if confirmed by a break below 5997 ...in which case we have little choice but to attack it again. Kill it.Dead. Again. With stops above 6000. This might never happen...so we need a plan B. Need to watch the centre parallel carefully throughout this descent. You know the rest and if you don't please refer to earlier posts today, explaining price action needed to confirm a change in trend. Stay lucky.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by sumastardon
Bitcoin BTCUSD Next support approaches for day-tradersBitcoin Update Although it's now testing the next line of support at 6312, unless a day trader would advise to stay short lloking for a test of the lower parallel. Some day traders will close out here looking for a decent counter rally back to the last support/new resistance at 6425, though the old trend line, now at 6390 may now prove so toxic that any rally is stopped dead here, on the underside of the old dynamic medium term support line. For others, stay short for test of the lower parallel...if we don't see a rally from 6312 it should happen around 1pm est, but if we get a rally first that will be delayed some. If it does rally from 6312, others looking to short this who have missed part of the ride can look to get on at 6420 if seen.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by sumastardon
BITCOIN: BTCUSD ON the brink of the next abyssBITCOIN: BTCUSD On the Brink Right Now Testing the first support 6425 range. Day-traders will be closing out again here, looking to see if selling power wanes ...don't think so but it could create a little counter rally from 6425-6400 , with 6400 being the exact point where the medium term trend line stands right now - and if it does, it should get stopped by the parallels above it which look to be controlling this descent now (couldn't get a grip on those yesterday, because the all-time high was screwing up any symmetry in the chart)...it's breaking now right on to the long term trend line at 6400 now...it's really thinking about it here, looking down and trying to hold up...but no one's buying are they? It's just selling has stopped here, understandably - itFailure here will seal the next stage in Bitcoin's descent - It should fall away to 6312 at least, make a feeble bounce maybe and then fall away further to at least 6165, and then 5997...last gasp support here at 6000 so it should try to pull back from the precipice for a while, and make some kind of getaway here...if this then fails Bitcoin will start to fall in a near straight line back to 5121-4973 range. It's extremely weak whilst trapped within the parallels that are bossing this wave now. Any return to the upper parallel should be viewed as another selling opportunity for now until downside targets are achieved. More as this move develops.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by sumastardon
3
Bitcoin: BTCUSD next shorting opportunitiesSad attempt at counter rally here . Think it looks Ok to short from 6943 again if touched with stop 40 points above....if it can bust above 6943 (which maybe it will) it should push up to 7060-7070 where it becomes a compelling sell if seen, with stop at 7160-7170 which will likely be the absolute limit of upside potential - before it should fall away again to the first target at 6312 Last update, see last Bitcoin comment (update) Whipping between minor support at 6720 and resistance at 6850 as day traders fight this space. Want to lower stop to 6870 as if it breaks above here it will move back up to 6943 again. It could potentially rise all the way to 7060-7070 at which point we can look to sell it with stops 110 points above if struck. If it's to stay weak in short term and hit the downside target 6860 must hold it back now, otherwise a stronger counter rally first before the next wave ...this decline is not over yet, but need to be careful of a potential counter-rally if 6860 is broken.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by sumastardon
2
BICOIN:BTCUSD Next swing trade set-upsBitcoin BTCUSD Update Too Whippy Got stopped out around even at 7060 this time. Still unconvinced by the rally attempt and looking at that pattern it should fall much further still. Yet, we've seen how tricky it is selling now, with two pin bars on the 2 hour chart, so although bearish this area here between 7137 resistance and support at 6935 is too full of whipsaw so am staying on sidelines having blown 40 pips on bad trades here today. Prefer to wait for one of two signals for next swing trade and leave this range we're in now to day traders to fight over until one side wins the near term: Any break below 6910 will trigger next short, as well as completing the head and shoulders formation above it - with a minimum downside target at 6312, bouncing off the lower parallel as it descends. It could actually spike as low as 6165 at the nadir but should then bounce again powerfully from here, if not from 6312. This scenario looks more likely - but will not necessarily prevail, so still need a plan B in case the upper parallel is broken on the upside at any point (with a successful retest as described in earlier posts) - Bitcoin will have to move above 7135 and then hold up here on the next minor pull-back which will force it above the parallel and away from the clutches of this downwave. Don't think this will happen, but it's Bitcoin. Anything could happen!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by sumastardon
BIITCOIN: BTCUSD testing upper parallel and still vulnerableBitcoin: BTCUSD Got to sleep sometime unfortunately. Sure enough Bitcoin made its low at 6928 after making an initial low off the lower large parallel and bouncing it then came back to make a double bottom low at 6928 before doing what it was meant to...bouncing up to test the upper contolling parallel. Annoyingly, after trying to avoid getting stopped out of a good trade, exactly that happened, the first time for a while that Bitcoin has created a false trigger on that first break above 7135. Shit does happen, even with Bitcoin, sometimes. Anyway the levels given have been spot on pretty much all through this run up and back down (to the point on downside) so please don't be too pissed...we have to accept the occasional false break: no chart gives out perfect signals every time though Bitcoin comes close most of the time. Accept. Move on to next trade: we're pretty much at the next stage forecast in last comment, now: testing the upper parallel. Day traders will have bought off the predicted low at 6928 with stops below but will be taking profits here, forcing Bitcoin sideways towards the upper parallel where it should fall away from again when it gets touched (short with stop above for day traders' next play). Bitcoin will struggle here and it will become vulnerable to another sell off once it's touched the parallel at 7232. It could develop into another large down-wave from here, but doesn't exactly have to...still prefer to be short from the parallel with stop above when it gets touched soon now.This is still a space for day traders right now. For that to change from here that upper parallel needs taking out on upside, then on a retest it has to hold up as Bitcoin comes back down on next minor pull back (might not see it if a large green candle starts to form so this entry will need watching over if and when it arrives)...but if and when that upper parallel gets broken on the upside will be the time to think about going long again or increasing positions (ideal will be a break aove the upper parallel followed by retest which takes Bitcoin back down a little lower as it tracks the parallel downwards for a while before rallying powerfully). Until we see that happen this is still day-trading territory.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by sumastardon
DXY: Dollar bulls building pin bars ahead of next rallyDXY: Dollar Index DXY is up and down like Harvey Weinstein's pants. But those series of pin bars forming over the course of this week shows serious support for the dollar at 94.41. This whipsaw can persist a little longer and cause havoc with positions (as in Gold, and across the pairs) and it's why it helps to keep an eye on this chart if trading any pair against USD. DXY continues to unwind the overbought conditions of last week by moving sideways between 94.82 short term resistance and 94.41 short term support...but those pin bars are showing that ulimately the break will be to the upside. Intend to keep accumulating Dollar longs on each test of 94.41 and increase once 94.90 has been broken on next minor pull-back towards 94.80.
TVC:DXYLong
by sumastardon
EURUSD: Continuation pattern prior to next decline still in playEURUSD It's plain to see that this this pattern is still one of continuation and eventually EUR should break the lower parallel containing this week's minor corrective up-wave and come much lower still...so am not looking to buy dips, more to sell the EUR rallies back to the upper parallel, looking for much lower values once the parallel gives way... Whilst being written another pin bar of heavy selling has been created, only confirming that this is a sucker's rally. This time we need to keep away from the EUR cookie jar. It's pretty much empty. The last hour of trading only adds weight to that outlook. Look to sell from the smaller upper parallel if retested and then to sell again once the lower parallel is broken on the downside. EUR has much further to fall over the coming weeks, as per recent comments.
by sumastardon
GBPUSD: Neutral now awaiting next signalGBPUSD Neutral now awaiting next signal Price action over last 12 hours has seen Sterling break below the lower parallel, thereby breaking the staggered uptrend that's been in play since the turn of the year. It doesn't look good for GBP but the game isn't up quite yet... Right now this pair is neutral: Need to see a break below that support line at 1.3021 to turn aggressively bearish again, looking for a fall back to 1.2765 (with 1.2863 serving as a minor rally point within this decline). On the upside, Sterling is in danger of consolidating yesterday's decline UNDER the parallel - classic chart action prior to the next fall...to escape this threat it will have to move back above the parallel at 1.3090 now and hold up there, rising higher and coming back to use the parallel as support on the next pull back. Only if we see this kind of price action will it look safe to go long GBP again for a rally to 1.3227 at least, and more likely back up to 1.3304 before coming back off again. So neutral for now, awaiting next signal to trade this pair as above.
by sumastardon
DXY: Dollar has to break above 94.75 to trigger next longDXY: Dollar Index Update Been waiting for DXY to come back to 94.28 at least, if not to 93.99 (and potentially a spike to an extreme low off the lower trend line at worst) before the Dollar begins its next surge higher... But it's putting up a fight at 94.45 in London today. It can still come off from around 94.70 mark though so getting the turn here is tricky...now need to see a break above 94.70 by 5 pips to get long for move up to 96 initially, and much higher still over the medium term. In adsence of such price action it's a waiting game a little longer, looking for a retest of 94.28 or ideally 93.99 before looking to go long again.
TVC:DXYLong
by sumastardon