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GU UPDATE: GU IS REVERSING AFTER IT HAS IT OUR PROFIT TARGET. Hello there again, Zoom it to see clearly . After our profit target has been hit, the price is reversing to the upside. Now, what is obvious about the market is that it is very bullish. If we see a strong bullish candle around the level of 1.22974 in the H4 timeframe, then it's time to go long. What does this mean? It means that you have to open your eyes and wait till the current H4 candlestick closes, till you see a strong bullish candle. The two arrows drawn showed the level of 1.22974 that has been broken and is being retested now. Just wait for a strong bullish candle to form there before going long. Wait. Wait. Wait. Don't sell. The market is very bullish.
by OraclePips
European Central Bank Preview – Time to PivotDespite facing the unknown external shock of a war, the Eurozone economy’s growth has been resilient in the first three quarters of the year. Eurozone Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rose by 0.3% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) in Q3, easing from a 0.8% increase in Q2 2022 aided by the rise in government spending alongside an improvement in inflation adjusted trade surplus . However, this is likely to change in Q4 2022 and Q1 2023 as COVID reopening demand fades. Eurozone recession remains a key risk until Q1 2023 Europe is set to embark on a harsh winter, and with savings rates extending the decline from a 1.7% drop in Q2, consumer spending is likely to come under pressure. The 1.8% month on month falls in euro area retail sales in October is consistent with the notion that real income squeeze is now catching up the with consumers. Services spending rose only 1.5% in Q3 compared to the 3.1% jump in Q2 2022 . The labour market has remained fairly resilient as Eurozone unemployment hit a new low of 6.5% in October, pushed down by falling unemployment in Southern Europe, the Netherlands, Finland and Austria. However, unemployment is likely to rise as the economic slowdown and tightening financial conditions impact hiring. That being said, fiscal policy could come to the rescue as major Eurozone governments have earmarked €573Bn into the economy to shield the private sector from the upcoming fallout in economic activity. Inflation in the Eurozone declined more than expected from 10.6% in October to 10% in November. Yet it’s hard to say for certain that the inflation rate has passed its peak as it is largely dependent on the fluctuations in energy prices. Core inflation remained at 5% in November and is likely to remain close to 5% through Q1 2023 . Companies continue to transfer higher input costs to consumers and in spite of an approaching recession, we expect this process of cost-push inflation to extend into 2023, keeping price pressures higher for longer. European Central Bank (ECB) split between the doves and hawks Ms Isabel Schnabel (a member of the executive board of the ECB) warned in November that loose fiscal policy risks adding to underlying inflation pressures by boosting consumption and reducing the incentive for consumers and businesses to save energy. We would argue that while the volume of relief packages is large, they are insufficient to provide complete relief for all consumers and companies. Ms Schnabel also noted that, “that the room for slowing down the pace of interest rate adjustments remains limited, even as we are approaching estimates of the ‘neutral rate’”. This hawkish sentiment was echoed by Dutch central bank head Klaas Knot in his statement that risks are tilted towards the ECB doing too little to combat rising inflation, noting that an economic slowdown, or perhaps even a recession, is needed to bring inflation under control. President Lagarde stressed that she would be surprised if inflation has already peaked, as there is too much uncertainty regarding the pass-through of high energy costs at the wholesale level into the retail level. She added that the ECB may have to go into restrictive territory with key rates. On the other hand, the head of the French central bank, Villeroy, who has often anticipated the actual ECB decisions in his statements, spoke out in favour of 50 basis points. Even hawks such as Bundesbank President Nagel and Estonian Mueller seem to be able to come to terms with a hike of just 50 basis points. Further clarity on Quantitative Tightening (QT) The ECB is likely to meet consensus expectations this week of narrowing the pace of rate hikes to 50Bps on 15 December, following two 75Bps rate hikes in September and October. This decision will lift its deposit and refinancing rates to 2% and 2.5% respectively. Neither peaking inflation nor a recession will give the ECB a reason to hold back from raising rates in Q1 2023, but both suggest that risks are tilted towards a slower pace of tightening. The outlook for the balance sheet, and more specifically QT, will be another key theme at this week’s meeting. It will be interesting to see whether the ECB will be pressed to sell bonds outright or stick with roll-off. We would expect the central bank to begin with an Asset Purchase Program (APP) roll-off equivalent to a monthly reduction of €25Bn in the balance sheet on average. Currently the ECB is still using Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP) reinvestments to compress spreads and the Transmission Protection Instrument (TPI) remains at its disposal if conditions deteriorate further. Both these tools limit how far the ECB can go with QT. Sources: 1Eurostat as of 30 November 2022 2National Accounts as of 30 November 2022 3Bruegel as of 31 October 2022 4Bloomberg as of 30 November 2022
FRED:ECBASSETSW
by aneekaguptaWTE
Boeing Update | Key Area | Opportunity to Take Profits | NEUTRALI first featured Boeing ($BA) back on May 27th, 2022 as a LONG / buy and hold. Since that call, the trade is up 40%+. Boeing is also at a key area and looks as though it will pull back. Yes it could break out (buy and hold). I personally think Boeing will fail here, how deep - I don't know (we never know), offering a great opportunity to take some profit after a 40% move. For now, I am shifting my outlook from LONG to NEUTRAL for now. Good hunting! 🤑 God Bless!
NYSE:BA
by ChiefMacro
SPY zoom outI am neutral on SPY until I see price action but leaning towards short.. filling out the channel. This can go two directions right here as we see quite a but of support and resistance along each trendline. Anyone who tells you otherwise is lying to you.. Tests of upper trend line show high level of resistance in overall downtrending market however we see support along lower trendline. Last candle on the daily I set alerts for breaks above and breaks below and then look for an entry. I will likely stay out of the market this week looks like a choppy one.. Good luck have fun trade safe cheers! Follow and like for more! Comment your thoughts and ideas below!!
AMEX:SPY
by Verum0
2
Solana at critical decision pointHi Tradingview, BINANCE:SOLUSDT I want to talk about SOLANA (SOLUSDT). Solana has been in the news recently mainly for bad but it has shown some strength in recent days with it breaking out of the wedge pattern it has been trading in for the past couple of weeks. However, I feel that will soon be coming to an end. It is trading in an upside-down cup and handle pattern, this is bearish. We can also see on our TSI indicator that a bearish crossing might be coming soon with the bears currently in control (below 0) This is highly probable. It could find support though, it has broken out of the wedge and is currently retesting. Trading SOL Now that we have looked at the facts, lets try to make some money off of this. I will be discussing a long possibility and a short possibility. Both require confirmation Long: Entry, confirmation of retest support, double bottom (#2) Short: Breakdown of 13.25, and wedge support
by Spikecaptial