GOOD BTC ENTRY !! SL 59K TP 72KREASONS WHY !!
Market Sentiment and Momentum:
Bitcoin soared in 2023, and experts predict further gains in 2024, potentially reaching $80,000.
Despite long-term optimism, Bitcoin experienced a recent dip.
Technical indicators suggest potential downside, but the market remains in a tug-of-war.
If buyers can push past the $44,700 resistance, a jump to $48,000 is in sight.
Spot Bitcoin ETF Launch:
The launch of a spot Bitcoin ETF in early 2024 is poised to revolutionize the crypto landscape.
This move is expected to attract significant capital from both retail and institutional investors, further fueling Bitcoin’s ascent.
Bitcoin Halving Event:
Scheduled for April or May 2024, the Bitcoin halving event will curtail the yearly supply of new Bitcoin.
This reduction in supply could establish conditions where demand potentially outstrips supply, a fundamental factor in the optimistic price forecast.
Investor Confidence and Accumulation:
Investors are holding on to their BTC with conviction stronger than in 2021.
Relative realized profits show that despite a new all-time high, selling has not been as significant as during the previous cycle.
Consistent accumulation since February 2024 indicates confidence among investors, expecting further price growth.
Netflix
NETFLIX historic pattern targets $1500 in 2025.Last time we looked at Netflix (NFLX) was on its earnings release (October 21, see chart below), when we gave a strong bullish signal that easily hit our $840.00 Target:
Since 3 week ago, the price even broke above the dominant 1-year Channel Up and is now in search of a new pattern. This pattern can be found if we zoom out considerably on the 1W time-frame, where the underlying pattern since the U.S. Housing Crisis is a 25-year Channel Up.
The symmetry within this pattern is high and in fact since the June 2022 market bottom (which was a Higher Low on the Channel Up), the stock has been on a Bull Cycle. The Bear Cycle that preceded it had a massive decline of -77%. The last correction of this magnitude was the July 2011 - August 2012 Bear Cycle, which declined by -83%.
The two Bull Cycles that followed Netflix's golden years were identical (+825% and +847%). As a result, we assume that the current Bull Cycle will also rise by at least +825% from its bottom, which gives us a $1500 Target towards the end of 2025.
Notice also how both the 2012 - 2014 and 2022 - 2024 Bull Cycles had a 1W Golden Cross.
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Netflix - Please Buy This All Time High!Netflix ( NASDAQ:NFLX ) will retest the resistance trendline:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
Netflix is currently perfectly breaking above the previous all time high and with a +16% candle of November, bulls are totally in control of this stock. If we look at previous cycles, there is a 100% chance that Netflix will now retest the upper resistance trendline of the reverse triangle.
Levels to watch: $1.200
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
The EUR/USD forecast for reaching 1.11 by December 2024The EUR/USD forecast for reaching 1.11 by December 2024 might seem ambitious given current trends, but let's delve into why this could indeed happen:
Economic Recovery in the EU: Recent posts on X highlight expectations around the ECB's monetary policy. If the European Central Bank continues to adjust rates in response to economic recovery signals, a stronger Euro might follow. Discussions around inflation cooling off and potential rate adjustments suggest a more robust Eurozone economy, which traditionally supports a higher EUR/USD rate.
Political Stability and Sentiment: With the U.S. political landscape shifting due to the Democratic nomination of Kamala Harris for the 2024 election, there's a narrative shift. While not directly economic, political stability or perceived changes in policy direction can influence currency strength. If her campaign promises economic policies that might strengthen the Euro against the Dollar, this could be a psychological boost for EUR/USD.
Market Sentiment and Speculation: There's noticeable chatter on platforms like X about EUR/USD movements. Speculation can drive markets; if traders and investors start betting on a stronger Euro due to any positive economic data or geopolitical shifts, this speculative buying could push the rate towards 1.11.
Technical Analysis: Some analysts have pointed out key resistance and support levels. Breaking through these levels, especially with momentum, could set new targets. If EUR/USD manages to convincingly breach the 1.09 resistance and maintain that level, the next psychological target becomes 1.10, with 1.11 not far beyond in terms of market psychology.
Interest Rate Differentials: If the ECB's rate adjustments lead to a narrowing of the interest rate differential with the Fed, capital flow might favor the Euro more, pushing its value up against the Dollar. Given historical trends, even a small change in rate expectations could significantly impact the forex market.
Global Economic Factors: Broader economic conditions, like improvements in European trade balances, could bolster the Euro. If the EU manages to show resilience or growth in sectors previously affected by global downturns, this could reflect positively on the EUR.
Seasonal Trends and Market Calendar: There's often a lull before the end-of-year where markets might move based on year-end portfolio adjustments. If there's a sentiment that the Euro will strengthen, this could be the period where movements towards 1.11 get traction due to year-end positioning.
The #1 Reason To Master Candlesticks The young people in my neighborhood are unemployed and this is really
Making me sad.
Meanwhile in other countries the youth have online television to numb the pain of unemployment
It's true when I read in an organizational behavior text book that stated that poverty is relative.
It means every place has its own "type" of poverty.
Wether that's true or not is up for debate.Being an academic is way way different from capitalism and learning about capital markets.
If you look at this chart NASDAQ:NFLX you will see a candle stick pattern based on momentum.
This pattern I called a "Hammer"
Used to signal support.
Yesterday I decide to walk to clear my brain.
And then as I was reading the book by Steve Nisson On Candles stick patterns
This question kept lingering in the back of my mind.
"Can you trade in the opposite direction?"
This question made me freeze.
You see when I began studying about trading and learning a new system..
This is the question that brought fear to my mind, because if I can not trade on the opposite direction then the system wont work.
On my kindle device it says am 50% into the book and already..in
my mind I am getting flash backs as I am trying to "mirror"
The candle stick patterns to the systems of trading I have already mastered.
One of them is called the 🚀 Rocket booster strategy.
--
To learn more about it check out the resources below ⬇️
--
As I was walking a lightbulb "clicked"
" Candlesticks can be used as a tool of Momentum"
I thought to myself
"Candlesticks are like a river they are strongest in the middle"
Remember that quote.
Candlestick patterns are essential and mastering them finally has given me an asernal tool that will help me have an edge
Over the competition in the financial markets.
Trade safe.
Rocket boost this content to learn more.
Disclaimer ⚠️ Trading is risky please learn risk management and profit taking strategies because you will lose money wether you like it or not.
Also practice on a simulation trading account before you use real money.
Boxing Matches, Chart Patterns, And The 3 Step SystemIn this video we look at the following:
1.Catalyst News
2.Rocket Booster Strategy
3.The #1 CandleStick Chart Pattern
Watch this video to learn more.About NASDAQ:NFLX
Trade safe.
Also rocket boost this content to learn more.
Disclaimer: Please use the simulation trading tool
before you use real money for trading.
Because trading is risky, and it will help
you learn more about risk management
and profit-taking strategies.
Because in trading you will lose money
whether you like it or not.
Streaming Wars | Who’s Winning, Losing, and Sharing Passwords ?Netflix Is Laughing, Cable Is Crying, and Amazon Is Sneaking Up
Highlights for Today
- Trends and Market Share
- Disney: Streaming Profits on the Rise
- Comcast: Cable Restructuring Underway
- Warner Bros : Box Office Challenges
- Paramount: Streaming Growth Amidst Challenges
In the Battle for Loyalty, One Fact Stands Out: Netflix vs the Rest
1. Trends and Market Share
Platforms like YouTube Premium, Amazon Prime, and Apple TV+ do not report quarterly numbers. Additionally, Disney+ Hotstar is excluded due to its planned merger with Reliance in 2025.
Streaming continues to replace traditional linear TV, benefiting all players. Nielsen reports streaming comprised 41% of US TV time in September 2024, a 3.5-point increase year-over-year, primarily at Cable’s expense.
Key Trends to Watch
-Password-Sharing Crackdown: Following Netflix’s success, Disney introduced paid sharing in the US in late September, with effects expected to emerge in Q4. Max is also gearing up for this initiative.
-Amazon Prime’s Growing Presence:CEO Andy Jassy revealed that Prime Video attracts over 200 million global viewers monthly. Combining exclusive content, live sports, and e-commerce integration, Amazon’s ecosystem presents a credible challenge to Netflix.
-YouTube’s Dominance in Living Rooms: YouTube accounts for over 25% of US streaming TV time (excluding YouTube TV) and continues to grow. Alphabet disclosed that YouTube’s ads and subscriptions brought in $50 billion in revenue over the last 12 months, surpassing Netflix’s $38 billion.
-Subscriber Trends: Tentpole events, like the Olympics for Peacock or hit series like House of the Dragon for Max, drove sign-ups. However, retention remains a challenge for all but Netflix.
2. Disney: Streaming Profits Rise
Disney’s fiscal year ends in September, with Q3 FY24 covering the June quarter.
-Streaming Profits:Disney’s direct2consumer (DTC) segment, which includes Disney+, Hulu, and ESPN+, posted its second consecutive profitable quarter, generating $321 million in operating income. Core Disney+ subscribers rose by 4.4 million, reaching 123 million, driven by ad-supported tiers.
-Box Office Wins: Hits like Inside Out 2 and Deadpool & Wolverine powered $316 million in studio profits. Disney became the first studio to surpass $4 billion in global box office revenue in 2024.
- Challenges in Parks: Parks and Experiences revenue dropped 6% to $1.7 billion, impacted by hurricanes, rising costs, and competition from the Paris Olympics. Domestic attendance held steady, while international parks struggled.
- Linear TV Decline: Revenue fell 6%, with profits plunging 38% to $498 million as cord-cutting and reduced ad sales weighed heavily. Disney plans to integrate streaming and linear TV rather than divest assets.
- Optimistic Outlook: Disney expects earnings growth in FY25 (high single digits) and double digits in FY26 and FY27. Blockbusters like Moana2 and Mufasa:The Lion King are anticipated to maintain momentum.
Takeaway: Disney’s Q4 highlighted strides in its streaming turnaround, buoyed by box office wins. However, the decline in linear TV underscores the challenges of transitioning in a shifting media landscape. Strong content and a focus on profitability position Disney for success under Bob Iger’s leadership.
3.Comcast: Cable Restructuring
-Olympics Drive Growth:The Paris Olympics boosted NBCUniversal’s revenue by 37%, generating $1.2 billion in advertising and adding 3 million Peacock subscribers, which now total 36 million.
-Streaming Expansion: Peacock’s revenue rose 82% year-over-year to $1.5 billion, with losses narrowing to $436 million from $565 million last year.
-Cable Struggles: Cord-cutting led to a loss of 365,000 cable TV subscribers, with video segment revenue down 6.2%. Comcast is exploring a spinoff of cable networks like Bravo and CNBC to prioritize growth areas.
-Theme Parks Slow: Theme park revenue dipped 5% to $2.3 billion as domestic attendance normalized post-COVID.
-Broadband Trends:Despite losing 87,000 broadband customers, revenue increased 3%, with higher average revenue per user.
Takeaway:Comcast’s Q3 reflected both opportunities and challenges. While the Olympics showcased its media strength, declines in cable TV and theme parks persist. Streamlining through a cable spinoff could sharpen its focus, but sustaining growth in Peacock and broadband remains critical.
4.Warner Bruh : Box Office Challenges
-Streaming Growth:Max gained 7.2 million subscribers, reaching 110.5 million globally, supported by international expansion and hits like *House of the Dragon*. Streaming revenue rose 9%, marking Warner’s first profit since 2022.
-Box Office Struggles:Studio revenue declined 17%, with theatrical revenue falling 40% due to a weaker film slate (*Beetlejuice Beetlejuice* and *Twisters* compared to last year’s *Barbie*). Video game revenue dropped 31%.
-Mixed Network Results:Network revenue grew 3% from the Olympics and *Shark Week*, but advertising revenue fell 13%. The $9.1 billion NBA impairment from Q2 continues to loom.
-Debt and Cash Flow Issues:** Free cash flow dropped 69% to $632 million, with $41 billion in debt. Warner renewed its Charter Communications deal to bolster stability.
-CEO’s Confidence:David Zaslav emphasized Max’s momentum, projecting $1 billion in streaming profits by 2025 and hinting at password-sharing monetization.
Takeaway:Warner’s Q3 highlighted streaming success but underscored its dependence on Max as traditional film and TV segments falter. Balancing debt, declining cash flow, and expanding streaming profitability will be key to its stability.
5.Paramount: Streaming Growth
-Streaming Success:Paramount+ gained 3.5 million subscribers, reaching 72 million, thanks to sports like the NFL and UEFA and shows like *Tulsa King*. The streaming unit achieved a $49 million operating income, its second consecutive profitable quarter.
-TV and Film Challenges:TV revenue fell 6% due to lower ad sales and declining cable subscribers. The film division saw revenue plummet 34%, with theatrical revenue dropping 71%.
-Merger Progress:Paramount’s merger with Skydance Media is on track for early 2025, following the exploration of 12 potential bidders.
-Cost-Cutting:Paramount has completed 90% of its $500 million cost reduction initiative, resulting in layoffs and asset write-downs.
-Strategic Shift:Paramount is seeking a streaming joint-venture partner to better compete with Netflix and Disney while managing cable TV’s decline.
Takeaway: Paramount’s streaming gains are encouraging, but traditional TV and film struggles persist. The Skydance merger offers a potential transformation, though stabilizing legacy businesses remains a significant hurdle.
Netflix - This Is A 100% Probability Setup!Netflix ( NASDAQ:NFLX ) will continue its parabolic rally:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
With this monthly candle, Netflix finally broke above the previous all time high and it about to continue the reversal triangle pattern cycle. We saw the same breakout back in 2013, when Netflix broke above the all time high and then started an even stronger rally of about +50%.
Levels to watch: $750, $1.000
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
#NFLX Targets for the Meltup in equitiesI have called a couple real big pattern moves on #Netflix
so on todays mega rally
I take a quick look at the potential price projections that may or may not end up occurring
I am not a guru or price forcaster
i just draw lines on charts like always
Your Risk
Your Reward
But i am someone who does highlight Risk i.e. downward prices when I feel/see that might be a possibility
Yes I know
this game is not easy.
Project Monday Strategy v2.0 gives a long signal on NetflixThis trading idea crated with Project Monday Strategy v2.0 (coming soon).
Entry Price: 757.58 USD
Preliminary Stop-Loss: 713.34 USDT
Preliminary Take-Profit: 870.79 USDT
The potential profit is 15%.
This strategy preset generates orders with following results during 6 years:
Net Profit in %: 5190%;
Percent Profitable: 49%;
Profit Factor: 3,16;
Max Drawdown: 18%.
NETFLIX’s Next Big Move: Massive Breakout Imminent?Technical Analysis:
NFLX (Netflix), on the 15-minute time frame, has set up a long trade with a strong entry at $744.60, supported by good volume. The breakout occurred above a consolidation phase, indicating market interest in a bullish move.
The price action is holding above the entry level, and the Risological Dotted Trendline is trending upward, providing a strong support foundation for the trade. This long setup points to a potential bullish continuation as Netflix approaches the following targets.
Key Levels:
Entry: $744.60
Stop Loss (SL): $715.10
Target 1 (TP1): $781.07
Target 2 (TP2): $840.08
Target 3 (TP3): $899.09
Target 4 (TP4): $935.56
Observations:
The breakout was backed by strong volume, reflecting confidence from the bulls.
Price is consolidating near TP1, suggesting momentum is building for further upside.
The Risological Dotted Trendline is trending upwards, giving strong support around $744, ensuring the trend stays intact.
Outlook:
Netflix's long trade setup shows strong potential for upward movement. With the support of the Risological Dotted Trendline and high volume backing, this trade is well-positioned to meet its targets. Watch for any pullback near $740, which could present another opportunity to re-enter or add to positions.
NFLX Netflix Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t sold NFLX before that massive selloff:
Now analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of NFLX Netflix prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 730usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2025-1-17,
for a premium of approximately $45.25.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
NETFLIX Earnings is setting it up for $840.Netflix (NFLX) is already one of the big winners of the earnings season as it announced Q3 results that exceeded expectations and saw the price up by more than +11.00% on Friday. Even technically that is a big win as the rebound came from a Thursday test of the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), the first in 2 months (since August 14).
The stock has been trading within a Channel Up for a whole year (since the October 18 2023 Low) and now has the perfect fundamental excuse to aim higher. The 1D RSI shows a similar pattern so all previous bottoms with the Channel Up (Aug 05 2024, April 22 2024, January 17 2024, October 18 2023) so either a 3.0 Fibonacci extension or a +25% rise is expected.
This time both happen to be just over $840.00, so we can claim that this is a reasonable target to aim for during this Bullish Leg.
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Trade Idea | NFLX | Bear Put Debit Spread StrategyI have been observing the price action of Netflix for the past days and it seems to me that it is showing some weaknesses at this level. Next earnings release will be on October 17, what ever the result is, in my opinion, profit taking can happen at this level.
Shorting this one will be expensive as NFLX trades at around $707.35 at last week close and the risk of loss will be uncertain if this will try to record a new high, while the risk in using the bear put debit strategy is only limited to the debit paid at entry, i.e. the amount I paid, is the maximum risk for this trade.
I will be looking at Oct25 575/570 Bear Put Debit Spreads and Oct25 600/595 and the contracts I will be trading will depends on where I am comfortable.
Why am I bearish?
Technically, I like fading the trade on top especially if I think the move already priced in the next earnings result. Fundamentally, the engagement growth in YouTube and other similar streaming platforms like Tubi, Pluto, Prime Video is increasing, even though some platform's content is not that great but sooner or later they'll catch up and eat the market share of Netflix.
-BB
Stan Weinstein Theory on NetflixThe 4 Market Phases
Stan Weinstein describes the evolution of stocks in four main phases:
- Phase 1: Accumulation
The market is flat after a prolonged decline. Smart investors start buying.
- Phase 2: Uptrend
The price breaks a key level and rises above the 30-week moving average, which is rising. This is the ideal phase to buy.
- Phase 3: Distribution
The market stabilizes after a rise. Big investors sell, and the moving average stabilizes. This is the beginning of the end of the uptrend.
- Phase 4: Downtrend
The price breaks a key support, the moving average goes down. Avoid buying or selling to limit losses.
Key Indicators
30-week moving average: In an uptrend, the price is above. In a downtrend, it is below.
Volume: Increasing volume during breakouts confirms the strength of the trend.
Weinstein advises buying early in Phase 2 and selling early in Phase 4 to follow major market trends.
Analysis made in collaboration with @Yannick1961
Netflix - Bullish Move Of +50% Ahead!Netflix ( NASDAQ:NFLX ) is trading at an important breakout level:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
Netflix is just another one of these stocks which is perfectly following cycles and market structure. After the recent drop of about -80%, Netflix perfectly tested the bottom of the reverse triangle pattern, created bullish confirmation and took off towards the upside.
Levels to watch: $700, $1.000
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
Netflix: Upside Potential!About a year ago, in October 2023, NFLX stock hit a low of $345.87. The uptrend that startet then remains intact and has gained momentum since August this year. After surpassing its record high of $700.99 from November 2021 two months ago, the stock continued to climb and has recently stabilized above the $700 mark. While significant progress has already been made with the turquoise wave 3, we expect a further expansion beyond the $800 hurdle. In the subsequent wave 4, the $700 level should be tested again before the final leg of the larger wave (1) in magenta kicks in. Our alternative scenario (20%), however, anticipates a new low of the turquoise wave alt. 2 below the $345.87 mark.
SMART MONEY MAKING BIG MOVES! IS NFLX NEXT?
NFLX is shaping up into a great setup. I'm watching for the price to stabilize in the 720-723.5 range, and if we see buyers step in there, it could be on its way to new all-time highs.
We ran with the 715C 0DTE on Friday, and it's worth keeping an eye on heading into next week.
If the market pushes higher, NFLX has a higher probability of breaking new highs.
Bullish IQ , online video streaming in chinaIQ has been drowned and punished for a light q2 june earning report.
seasonally/historically q2 has been the lightest quarter for past 3 years.
the best quarters are toward the winter holidays.
Current valuation is very attractive low PE, low price to sales.
Balance sheet has some debt, so its not excessively cheap in the balance sheet. its all about the earnings growth potential.
This year forward earnings is expected to be .24 cents, which is fantastic for a once 2.00 stock recently. 5 year potential eps is over 1.00, so for me this is a keep for long time.
Hard to say what a growing online streamer could be worth when bullishness kicks in and future growth starts to be anticipated. 20 pe? 30 pe? one can never predict this. All we control is buying value when we get a lot of weight for money paid.
RISKs- continued deflation in china, more competition. Currency devaluation and geopolitics still a major cloud. Yuan is rising now, but if real estate remains a burden, currency devaluation and increased stimulus might hurt the currency and total net returns to foreign investors.
Not advice for you, but I like the stock for me. Stands out on my ranking sheets.
NFLX ( Netflix ) SELL TF M15 TP = 631.71On the M15 chart the trend started on Aug. 20 (linear regression channel).
There is a high probability of profit taking. Possible take profit level is 631.71
Using a trailing stop is also a good idea!
Please leave your feedback, your opinion. I am very interested in it. Thank you!
Good luck!
Regards, WeBelievelnTrading