💾 NDX Bear-Run 2023 & BeyondMonopolistic, abusive and centralized corporations will continue to dominate the world but slowly but surely become less and less relevant, new technologies, new systems based on openness, decentralization and fairness will start to emerge.
These new systems will start to go up as everything from the past starts to go down.
The crash will speed up and it will eventually become obvious.
Cryptocurrency will be the only place left for the world to look for cover.
It is the worst crash ever but this time an alternative exist.
Cryptocurrency will save the day.
Prepare yourself if you hold any of these stocks/indexes... It is going down.
Namaste.
NASDAQ 100 CFD
Best guess: current situation in MarketI think the market is consolidating for the next push up... but probably won't be consolidating here anymore, rather lower is coming... I'm fully expectant and prepared for LOWER LOWS to come... so if you want to follow idea on Long, do know it's early still...
Tape Wise, market flipped bull mode on October 13th... price going lower is not "PER SE" a bear tape.
I'll update if I sense the stink of bear taking hold of market... his claws printed in Tape... for now price is just controlabelly and smoothly cooling off & falling lower (remember, "velocity" is not all there is to bear tape... yes, bear tape requires velocity, but a relatively speedy down trend is not on its own a bearish tape...)
So: until Tape flips bear and trend is broken, we assume after lower prices, higher ONES will come...
DOW JONES 1929 - Worst is yet to come Federal Reserve raising rates vertical fasted in history.
1. More people getting bullish before mass bankruptcies are filed
2. Bull whip effect in full force too many new hired people from stimulus
3. FED are stuck and have to raise rates through a recession threat to defend the US Dollar and US bonds
4. They potentially avoided the blow off top but can they prevent the collapse?
5. Banks are running into liquidity issues already
6. Unemployment claims are skyrocketing from job layoffs not being reported.
Getting close to another support level on $DJI, SCALPING onlyAs stated many times, in & out. Get as much as you can and then WAIT, be PATIENT IF you want to hold longer. It could be a while before we get another good longer term buy opportunity.
As stated before, SCALPING quick moves.
Most of these were not huge moves BUT Put premiums did lessen & provided 10-25% in minutes.
$MSFT went from 249 - 252
$ZS 106 - 108.5
$TSLA 170 -177
$COIN 53-55.2
$RUN 21.9 - 22.95
Picked up some gold miners $BTG $KGC Possible consolidation in the industry.
Highest $VIX has been in a long time, Stocks prepping for run?$VIX pumped hard these last 2 days
Was interesting that it hadn't done much considering how much the #markets had fallen.
However, it could be short term topping out as #stocks are oversold atm.
25 has been an issue for some time now.
Other data is showing that we are likely setting up for a nice run.
Earnings recession is becoming more apparentFollowing the FOMC’s rate hike, markets continued to rally yesterday until the closing bell when tech giants Alphabet, Amazon, and Apple reported their earnings. Bleak numbers poured cold water on a rally, and in after-market trading, Nasdaq 100 index fell more than 2.5%. However, this move quickly recovered, highlighting the market's growing fragility. With VIX near yearly lows and now evident earnings recession, we will seek a decline in volume accompanying the rising price to suggest a rally’s exhaustion.
During the summer of 2022, we noted that declining corporate earnings and outlook downgrades in 3Q22 and 4Q22 would confirm our bearish thesis about the market progressing deeper into recession. With this being reflected in the data, we will pay very close attention to labor market data, which lags behind other indicators. To further confirm our bearish thesis, we want to see a pick-up in unemployment and small business bankruptcies, which will put the current mainstream narrative about “soft-landing” to the test (together with the FED not cutting rates).
Alphabet - full-year 2022 results.
Net income = $59.97 billion
(vs. net income of $76.03 billion in 2021; -21.1% YoY)
Operating income = $74.84 billion
(vs. $78.71 billion in 2021; -4.9% YoY)
Revenue = $282.83 billion
(vs. $257.63 billion in 2021; +9.8% YoY)
Alphabet disclosed that it expects to incur (in 1Q23) employee severance and related charges of $1.9 billion to $2.3 billion in relation to its layoffs of 12 000 people announced in January 2023. Additionally, it anticipates exit costs in regard to office space reductions of approximately $0.5 billion during that same quarter. Furthermore, the company expects a significant reduction in the depreciation of its equipment and servers throughout the entire year 2023.
Amazon - full-year 2022 results.
Net loss = $-2.7 billion
(vs. net income of $33.4 billion in 2021; -108% YoY)
Operating income = $12.2 billion
(vs. $24.9 billion in 2021; -51% YoY)
Net sales = $514 billion
(vs. $469.8 billion in 2021; +9.4% YoY)
Amazon saw a massive drop in net income (YoY) in 2022, from $33.4 billion to a net loss of $2.7 billion. The company expects its net sales to drop by more than 15% in 1Q23 (vs. the previous quarter) and suffer unfavorable impacts from exchange rates.
Apple - 1st quarter FY2023
Net income = $29.98 billion
(vs. $34.63 billion a year ago; -13.4%)
Net sales = $117.2 billion
(vs. $123.9 billion a year ago; -5.4% YoY)
Operating income = $36.01 billion
(vs. $41.48 billion a year ago; -13.2% YoY)
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of NQ1!. At the moment, the price deviated too far from its 20-day and 50-day SMAs, making a case for the retracement. A breakout below Support 1 will bolster the bearish odds in the short term. Contrarily, a breakout above Resistance 1 will be bullish.
Technical analysis
Daily time frame = Bullish
Weekly time frame = Bullish
Illustration 1.02
Illustration 1.02 displays the daily chart of QQQ. The yellow arrow hints at bullish volume growth. A decline in volume accompanying the rising price will hint at declining momentum and potential trend reversal.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
US100 LongWe got a really nice break of the blue trend line and a nice bounce of the demand zone around 11900 level. Looks strong for a long trade in my opinion. I would like to see a retracement to 12150 for a entry to go long.
Entry price: 12150
Stop loss: 12050 ( I would like to see a strong rejection of this level to exit the trade)
Target 1: 12350
Target 2: 12500
Final Target: 12600
CURRENCYCOM:US100 CME_MINI:NQ1! NASDAQ:QQQ NASDAQ:NDX
Nasdaq Index will be Volatile SidewaysThis year Nasdaq will be going nowhere as it will be traded within a range of around 10500-13000 and probably will end around 10000-12500 by the end of the year. It may test lower point and may touch higher point than the given range, however it won't crash and won't spike either. The reasons for these analysis is based on Index Value Rainbow indicator above. This indicator shows multiple value of base Money Supply or Net Liquidity. For US market Net Liquidity formula is as follow:
NL = FBS - ( TGA + RRP)
NL = Net Liquidity
FBS = Fed Balance Sheet
TGA = Treasury General Account
RRP = Reverse Repo
What happened this year is the Fed is reducing it's balance sheet by selling of their asset or doing some quantitative tightening program, which basically reduce the net liquidity value. However on the other side Treasury is also reducing it general account due to debt limit issue, which actually increasing the net liquidity. So the net value of these two opposing factors will impact Nasdaq value. As a result the net liquidity will remain the same or slightly down through out the year, as the Fed has more impact than Treasury. Other factors need to consider though is the foreign market impact on US stock as EU follows US tightening while CN & JP is on easing policy that will negate downward pressure. As a result Nasdaq will be traded sideways throughout the year. However it will be volatile, because there will be shift of balance from overvalued stocks like TSLA, APPL, etc. to undervalue stocks like META, PYPL, etc. So I expect there will be 20-30% price drop on overvalued stock and 20-30% increase on undervalued stock prices on average.
A bullish case for the Nasdaq 100The weekly timeframe has been slowly developing a bullish structure. The retracement from the all-time high stalled at a 61.8% Fibonacci ratio (from the pandemic low), and prices have since rallied to trade above the previous cycle high. OBV (on balance volume) is also confirming price action high. A recent pullback from the March high has stabilised above the 200-week MA and a small bullish candle formed last week.
The daily chart shows an ABC correction which was completed with a bullish engulfing candle. Prices rose above the 20, 50, 100 and 200-EMA's and now pulled back to gap support. Given the Nasdaq has only fallen -0.6% this week despite the negative sentiment from potential Fed Hikes, it is holding up pretty well. SO if sentiment improves, the Nasdaq may go on to outperform its Wall Street peers.
- The remains bullish above the 11,830 low and for a retest of the 12,880 highs
- If prices can hold above gap support, bulls could consider tighter risk management
NASDAQ: Replicating the January bottom. Long term target at 13,4Nasdaq followed our short term trading plan to perfection and hit both our targets (see bottom chart). Now with the 1D time frame on neutral technicals (RSI = 51.600, MACD = 59.860, ADX = 20.760) but the RSI on a HL trend line, this draws comparison with the January bottom formation.
The 1D Golden Cross that will be completed tomorrow and will be the first since May 2020, can signal the start of a rally similar to January's that topped on the 1.5 Fibonacci extension. Based on that we are long and have a TP at 13,400.
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NASDAQ Forming the 1st 1D Golden Cross since May 2020!Nasdaq (NDX) hit our first target (12370) on last week's analysis and as the condition for the next one wasn't fulfilled (closing a candle above Resistance 1 (12230)), we didn't re-buy:
This week comes with even stronger technical news as despite yesterday's Powell driven rejection, the index is about to form a 1D Golden Cross, the first since May 22 2020! That alone is a major bullish signal for the long-term and as even the 4H MA50 (red trend-line) is supporting, we are buying again with Target 1 being the same (12370). As mentioned previously, if a candle closes above Resistance 1, we will enter another buy targeting 12740 (slightly below Resistance 2).
Note that even though this is a Channel Down pattern since the February 02 High (see how perfectly all candles have closed within the pattern), it is the 1D Golden Cross as well as the Higher Lows on the 1D RSI that are making us believe a bullish reversal is emerging.
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$TSLA intraday trade YESTERDAY, NO longer want after $NDX hitAll this documented
Check profile for more data
---
10am Yesterday---
187 is support, going to start nibbling $TSLA here
WITH TIGHT LEASH
------------------------
1026AM updated
Interesting that $VIX isn't moving
Did the $TSLA & will likely just try & scalp some points
$187 is a decent area
Sold short March 17, 190 puts, were $9 bucks!
$TQQQ done for quick trade, looking to close soon
$NDX
------------------------
1048AM
DONE!!!
$TSLA Sold $9 covered @ $7
$TQQQ done as well
Even more cash than yesterday
Will WAIT & see, maybe get few more scalps here & there
Looking @ #Tesla $ZS $TQQQ & others for re-entry but patient
---------------------
TODAY NO LONGER INTERESTED IN $TSLA
$NDX looks weak, middle of trend & $TSLA doesn't look like it wants to hold
Will revisit 167ish
Looking for NASDAQ dips.NASDAQ - Intraday - We look to Buy at 12031 (stop at 11951)
Continued downward momentum from 12455 resulted in the pair posting net daily losses yesterday.
Buying posted in Asia.
Intraday, and we are between bespoke support and resistance 12021-12238.
We are trading at oversold extremes.
Dips continue to attract buyers.
Our profit targets will be 12231 and 12271
Resistance: 12238 / 12417 / 12453
Support: 12021 / 11939 / 11900
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The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
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QQQ Support and Resistance is KEYI have a short story for you all but first it's important to mention that we're right at an important level that was created on December 13. If we stay trading below this level, the next important level is near 290. That's a decent drop from where we are today. Keep a watchful eye on your indicators as there's more downside as a possibility.
Once upon a time, there was a young trader named Jack. He had just learned about support and resistance levels in trading and was eager to apply his newfound knowledge to the markets.
Jack studied the charts and noticed that the price of QQQ was approaching an important resistance level. He knew that if the price broke through this level, it would signal a bullish trend and the bulls would be in control of the market. However, if the price failed to break through the resistance level, it would indicate a bearish trend, and the bears would be in control.
Jack placed an options trade on QQQ, betting that the price would break through the resistance level. However, the market had other plans. The price failed to break through the resistance level, and instead, it started to drop rapidly.
Jack watched in horror as his trade plummeted. He quickly realized that the bears were now in control of the market. He tried to cut his losses and sell the stock, but it was too late. The market had already moved against him, and he had lost a significant amount of money.
Jack learned to always pay attention to support and resistance levels in trading. He knew that if the price was below an important resistance level, it was a sign that the bears were in control, and he should avoid placing bullish options trades. Instead, he would wait for the price to break through the resistance level before placing any trades, ensuring that he was always trading with the trend and not against it.
AW Dow Jones Analysis - Final Move Before Crash In Progress...In my previous video I highlighted exactly what I thought was going to happen and thus far it has materialized.
The level of detail in that video goes to show how precise AriasWave can be when used correctly.
This kind of analysis cannot be found anywhere and if you think that's funny you should see the bigger picture.
Slowly but surely, I am formulating a view that will more accurately be able to predict the next moves in the market for years to come.
My two favorite charts to understand this process are the Dow Jones and Bitcoin.
With the guide of the 10-year bond yields analysis it serves and the indicator for when the Fed will tighten versus stimulate.
With the help of the US Dollar and Euro analysis I can also make the prediction that a fairly decent bull market awaits us in the years to come.
I have linked some related ideas down below.
Remember to use Disciplined Money Management Principles to ensure longevity as a trader.
If you don't know the long term pattern shouldn't you be doing your research instead of just following the crowd?
Just remember: I am not a financial adviser; I suggest using this only as a guide. Always do your own research.
***AriasWave is not the same as Elliott Wave so your counts may differ to mine if you happen to use it.***
NASDAQ starting a new long term Channel Up.Nasdaq is getting rejected today after the very high opening as it hit the top of its Bearish Megaphone pattern.
The same 1D candle is seen at the end of the last Bearish Megaphone when it broke upwards in early January.
The price got supported on the MA50 (1D).
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the current market price.
Targets:
1. 13450 (Fibonacci extension 1.5).
Tips:
1. A Golden Cross is only 2 days before forming.
2. The RSI (1D) also forms a sequence identical to January 9th.
Please like, follow and comment!!
Nasdaq -> Please Listen To MeHello Traders,
welcome to this free and educational multi-timeframe technical analysis .
From a weekly perspective, the Nasdaq in my opinion looks extremely bullish. We just created a double bottom with a break above the neckline and last week we already started the continuation towards the upside.
We are also having a bullish weekly ema crossover, all things pointing towards the beginning of the next bullmarket so on the weekly timeframe I just expect the continuation towards the upside.
On the daily timeframe we are currently retesting previous support which is now turned resistance so I am now just waiting for a break and retest of the resistance area which is then turned support and then the continuation towards the upside looks extremely likely, also from a daily perspective.
Thank you for watching and I will see you tomorrow!
You can also check out my previous analysis of this asset:
QQQ Nasdaq 100 ETF Price PredictionOn March 7th we have the Fed Chair Powell Testimony, that could reveal that the FOMC is going to hike the interest rates for a longer period of time, and maybe give us a clue if it`s the case for a 50bps increase after the next meeting.
On March 10th we have the Non Farm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate that could also fuel a potential 50bps hike if they come better than expected.
In this context, my price target for QQQ Nasdaq 100 ETF is $285 by Mid-April.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
NASDAQ making a bullish reversalNasdaq (NDX) held the 1D MA50 (red trend-line) as Support and rebounded just before touching it. The bullish break-out confirmation came after the price broke and closed above the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since February 16.
The medium-term pattern remains a Channel Down on a 4H Death Cross, so attention is require and short term targets after confirmed break-outs. If the price closes above Resistance 1 (12230), target the top of the Channel Down at 12370. If then it closes above Resistance 2 (12385) also, we can take a longer buy targeting the Double Top Resistance (red) at 12740.
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NASDAQ bouncing on the 1day MA200 eyeing a 4hour MA50 breakNasdaq continue to trade within a Channel Down pattern but as it hit the 1day MA200 with the RSI is on a Rising Support/ bullish divergence on the Channel's Falling Support, it only needs to cross above the 4hour MA50 to resume the bullish trend.
We consider this the bottom. Target 1 is the 0.236 Fibonacci and Target 2 the 12750 Resistance A.
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NASDAQ Its weekly Pivot closing determines the long-term trendLast week we looked into Nasdaq (NDX) from a 1D perspective, giving emphasis on the important of the 1D MA200 and 1D MA50 as Supports, giving emphasis on the Pivot Zone involved since September:
It is important now to show you why this level is important for the long-term, this time on the 1W time-frame. As you see on the current chart, despite last week's sell-off, Nasdaq closed its 1W candle exactly on the Weekly Pivot line. This is the line that separates the bullish from the bearish trend. As long as the price closes above it, the trend is bullish and vice versa if it closes below it, the trend is bearish. It is therefore critical to see where the 1W candle will close tomorrow.
The 1W RSI shows us a steady rise, indicating that we are technically outside of the Bear Market. The October - November Double Bottom managed to fil the 1st Gap on Resistance 1 (12885) and if the 1W candle closes above the Pivot line, we expect this pattern to fill the Gap on Resistance 2, but as with our usual low risk approach, we set a Target lower on a potential 1W MA100 (red trend-line) contact at 13360.
If the 1W candle closes below the pivot, expect the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) to be tested and then the lower symmetrical Support at 11280.
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NDX is going lowerWhen viewed on the monthly timeline, you can see the similarities to the tech bubble.
We've had a massive bull run over the past 10+ years. The market is due for a major correction and this is it.
If the bears win over the next two weeks, you can be sure that we are going much, much lower.
NDX 9000 or lower by Q2-Q3 to close out the correct.
Buckle up and good luck.
Not legal advice.