US100 / NASDAQ 5May2023the market looks very bullish, look for a period when the price corrects so that the buy can get the best area / price
NASDAQ 100 CFD
NDX - Cup and Handle Recovery Plotted and Up Channel on NDX that i think the top of will act as support for price.
A curved trend and handle can be drawn on chart, the components of a cup and handle structure.
Ill link some of my other analyses for NDX below
NASDAQ Buy opportunity on the 4hour MA200Nasdaq hit today the 4hour MA200 after a week of trading over it.
This is our first buy entry. The second will be if the price hits the 1day MA50, which has been untouched since March 15th.
Target the Rising Resistance at 13400. If broken, extend to Resistance A at 13730 which is the high of August 2022.
Previous chart:
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Do Todays Participants & Pundits Understand Todays Stock Market?I’ll get right to the point. NO
Now granted, as the reader, you’re immediately drawing your own conclusions about that opening statement. You're probably thinking... The author of this post is obviously bearish and therefore has an agenda. Ok, that’s fair.
Then indulge me as I explain, in detail , why I believe todays market participants and financial news pundits do not understand Todays Stock Market. My only request of you, the reader, is to continue reading with an open mind till the end and then judge for yourself.
I practice a form of technical analysis called Elliott Wave Theory.
Whether one would consider it theoretical after 90 years since it’s introduction, or not, is a discussion for another time. This post is not some diatribe debating, nor defending the Principles of Elliott Wave. However, I’ll sum up Elliott Wave for the uninitiated in a simple explanation for sole purpose of understanding this post.
Elliott Wave Brief Explanation:
Elliott Wave means to forecast crowd behavior specifically as it pertains to price action within a given market. As a long-time practitioner of this form of analysis I am still amazed to this day, to see price follow through on my forecasts with a high degree of both accuracy, and reliability. I’m never bored. But in truth, this form of analysis has little merit in markets in which there are no LARGE CROWDS. Price action in thinly traded penny stocks, fly by night crypto currencies, and so forth. You simply cannot forecast what the crowd will do, in the absence of a true crowd. However, in LARGE CROWDS, the basic premise of Elliott Wave is prices tend to move in 5 distinct “Waves” within a given trend. During the course of that 5-wave trend, price will correct, consolidate or digest gains or losses in 3 distinct “waves” prior to that trend completing. To examine those waves within a trend, an analyst should be able to drill down into smaller and smaller time frames and see the same principles playing out as these price action patterns are fractal in nature. They are self-similar. Ok, that is an overly simplified explanation of Elliott Wave. Nonetheless, its one in which I think is enough where I can guide you through my broader reasoning. Let me start out with my long-term SPX analysis.
Elliott Wave Analysis on the SP500:
In the above chart you'll find the 4-hour fractal of the below larger monthly fractal. I have posted these charts many times before, so long-term followers of my work will recognize them. But I start this broader explanation with the below monthly chart. Displayed in the chart below you see a series of labels in green ( I ), ( II ), and ( III ). Those green labels are what Elliott Wave deems a super-cycle price action analysis…or count. Its referred to as a “count”, because practitioners of Elliott Wave Theory are simply counting waves.
So if Elliott Wave is based on a series of 5-wave trend patterns, and 3-wave counter trend patterns that are FRACTAL in nature (my earlier over-simplified explanation), then after completing a wave ( III ), we obviously need a wave ( IV ). Now in all fairness to you the reader, has the monthly price action confirmed we’re in a super-cycle wave ( IV ) and wave ( III ) has in fact completed?
NO.
What confirms the price action is in a super-cycle wave ( IV ) event is a breach of the 2020 Covid-19 low of ES Futures 2174. That price (2174) is the litmus test for continuation to higher highs in the SPX or a long slog in equities that could last decades and decimate global wealth.
Now I have long told my members that... although I do not know what the catalysts are that ultimately validate the forecasted price action, those catalysts always tend to show up on time . I think in my trading room, my members would whole heartedly agree with that statement.
So, as I analyze price action from the day to day to the 1-minute chart and justify my primary long-term analysis today I am in no shortage of potential catalysts that are brewing. You know them all (Debt Ceiling, Regional Banking Crisis, The Fed, Inflation, Geo-Political…etc.) I choose not to speculate on the potential event, but on history. Is there a precedent? Yes, History.
There is…. somewhat. Here it is.
The last time we had our wave ( II ), super cycle counter trend price action, was the stock market crash of 1929. That is easy to see on the above chart, but what were the clues, or the potential catalysts leading up to that event almost 100 years ago?
Clue #1: The Panic of 1907
The Panic of 1907 was…wait for it…” A Financial Crisis”. During this time, the irresponsibility of bankers caused Bank Runs, and ultimately that translated into a 50% decline in the NYSE. That’s half…50%. This dried up any liquidity for loans. In other words, a credit crunch. Sound Familiar? Sidenote: You starting to get the sense that bankers always seem to be present at the scene of the crime so to speak? It’s perplexing. Who are these nefarious characters? Banking, in general, is terrible business model. But I digress…back to the point.
Clue #2: The Spanish Flu
The Spanish Flu of 1918 was a global influenza pandemic (H1N1) that decimated a third of the population on planet Earth. The Spanish Flu became a global pandemic because exiting World War 1, the war effort censors were accustomed to censoring bad news. Therefore, most of the population was ill-informed regarding the dangers of (H1N1) and disproportionately this effected the young and old members on the population. This was also a time of climate change and population migration patterns and this exacerbated the spread and effects of the flu.
This starting to sound like you’ve seen this movie before?
Clue #3: Massive economic bounce back
The jobs market was in high deficiency mode as early as 1922 having had so many of potential workers having died in the previous pandemic prematurely. This caused a massive supply-demand dislocation of (1) human nature to get out from under the atmosphere of The Spanish Flu and (2) live and consume…and the work force to meet those needs on a global scale. This resulted in a large economic expansion that lasted almost 10 years. In the United States, we refer to this era as, “The Roaring Twenties”. These three clues culminated in the stock market crash of 1929...hence our super-cycle wave ( II ).
As an analyst, as an intellectual, and as a student of history, I cannot ignore these flashing confluence of events in my time.
The Irish statesman, Edmund Burke has been attributed to having said… ” Those who don’t know history are destined to repeat it.”
The Spanish philosopher George Santayana is credited with the aphorism, “Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.”
War Time British Prime Minister Winston Churchill wrote, “Those that fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it.”
In summary, how does this all shake out?
Well, first and foremost I’ll say that this is not your father’s stock market, it’s not even your grandfather’s market. It’s more than likely your Great Grandfathers market. That market was terrible. That market had seismic effect on both society and asset appreciation. Keep in mind, this market has had it’s bull and bear markets. However, for the last almost 100 years, we’ve been in a secular bull market. During the last 100 years, we have experienced 3 impactful cyclical bear markets within a 93 year secular bull market since our super cycle wave ( II ) event in 1929.
During the last 93 years, the stock market has essentially appreciated in a solid, predictable 45-degree angle higher. Buy and hold, buying the dip, has been both the statistical and practical successful trading thesis. If this is a wave ( IV ) super-cycle event, trader sentiment must change. This takes time. Traders must now go through re-conditioning. A mourning, if you will, of the past 93 years of a secular bull market. Unfortunately, this only occurs with the loss of money, and over time. Cavemen continued to touch fire as it is visually magical. However, after a while, I’m sure they drew the conclusion this is NOT ADVISED . I keep CNBC on in the back ground of my small trading office. The incredibly smart contributors, and titans of money they feature quote metrics like typical bear market durations, what typically happens after the Fed has paused rate increases 6 months afterwards…and I’ll be the first to announce to you, the reader, THAT NO LONGER APPLIES.
We are no longer in that 93 year long 45-degree angle up. Those metrics… worthless . Those typical expectations… miss-guided .
THIS IS NOT YOURS, NOR IS IT YOUR FATHERS MARKET.
Now granted, this is somewhat of a thought speculation on my part (as of today). However, I do wonder…if traders, market participants and financial news pundits have objectively considered if they understand TODAYS STOCK MARKET.
FOOD FOR THOUGHT.
CHRIS
NASDAQ: About to fill the August 2022 Gap.Nasdaq is on a long term Channel Up with bullish technicals on the 1D timeframe (RSI = 56.673, MACD = 124.440, ADX = 30.096). In addition to those bullish indicators, it kept intact the 1D MA50 last week as Support, while also having the RSI rebound on the HL trendline. Consequently we remain bullish on Nasdaq long term (TP = 13,730), expecting it to hit R1 which is the August 16th 2022 Top. That would be a little less than a 8.50% rise from the April 25th Low, which represents the decreasing rate of growth on each Higher High (+20.50%, +13.30%, +8.50%).
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The Taiwan BRICS War Leading To The Biggest Meltup In History
Can we not see what's happened over the last days? the exact repeat of 2009 instead of QE straight away the FED has resorted to using terms like "BTFP program" and offering zero percent loans to the bigger banks to bailout the smaller banks.
I thought the FRED would have allowed the banks to go down for a market reset "what everyone is expecting" but the response is if the trend line breaks the entire US bond market breaks + the global financial system is in meltdown meaning the FRED and the US Government won't and cannot allow it to happen, oh and the Treasury is almost broke defaulting meaning QE will be turned on within the next months or a "BTFP treasury program".
Lets look at the facts that's got me worried
US dollar dominance will collapse due to QE needed to fund the US government and bailout markets to generate GDP growth
Since 2009 Expenditure on the military in China has gone parabolic from 96 Billion to 293 Billion in 2021 - China also purchases mass gold with Russia (what the hell are they preparing for or doing?)
In 1919 the USA was the top military spending by country
In 1920 the Russian Empire upped military spending passing the USA
In 1922 the Soviet Union was formed spawning the rise of the German dictatorship
What does this mean? it means the Soviet Union is repeating with BRICS and I'm sure the USA is aware of that.
All BRICS nations are printing money like crazy funding gold / military purchases like they are about to disregard the FIAT system.
USA has one option and one option only to defend the global dollar.
Start a counter offense on completely taking Taiwan controlling the entire semiconductor market limiting BRICS economically, and handing over the technology keys to the USA
meaning they can set the rules and prices and force demand back onto the USD system.
If this outcome comes to reality, we will see money printing in the USA disguised flooded into defense and a full NATO move surrounding Taiwan.
Followed by this will be stocks rising + inflation heading up + rates heading lower - -
The goal of this is to devalue the currency and use WAR to take economic assets by force from BRICS causing the wealth to be returned back.
This should answer your question on why the Ukraine War? Why the Red Balloons? both NATO / US + BRICS are using these as a testing ground to predict retaliations for the main goal Taiwan.
If the US / NATO wanted this war to be over in a day it would be. If China / Russia wanted this war to be over in a day it would be nobody ask why its not.
Translation lets steal Trillions from the public and spend 10 billion in Ukraine while storing the rest for R&D for the real event.
NASDAQ Bullish within a Double Channel UpNasdaq (NDX) has gone a long way since we called for a rebound on the 1D MA200 on March 17:
Right now the uptrend has slowed down as the Channel Up that started in December has transitioned into a much less aggressive Channel Up, supported by the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) that is targeting 13500 as part of its Higher Highs process. The 1D RSI which is trading within a Triangle of Higher Lows and Lower Highs can be a guide for buy and sell entries.
If the price breaks above the February 02 Higher Highs, we will increase our buy exposure and target the 13730 Resistance (August 16 2022 High).
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NDX - Rising Trend Channel [MID TERM]- NDX is in a rising trend channel in the medium long term.
- The index has given a positive signal from the double bottom formation by a break up through the resistance at 12042.
- Further rise to 13396 or more is signaled.
- The index is between support at points 13000 and resistance at points 13700.
- A definitive break through of one of these levels predicts the new direction.
- RSI diverges negatively against the price, which indicates danger of a reaction downwards.
- Overall assessed as technically positive for the medium long term.
*EP: Enter Price, SL: Support, TP: Take Profit, CL: Cut Loss, TF: Time Frame, RST: Resistance, RTS: Resistance to be Support LT TP: Long Term Target Price
*Chart Pattern:
DT - Double Top | BEARISH | RED
DB - Double Bottom | BULLISH | GREEN
HNS - Head & Shoulder | BEARISH | RED
REC - Rectangle | BLUE
iHNS - inverse head & Shoulder | BULLISH | GREEN
Verify it first and believe later.
WavePoint ❤️
nasdaq updateafter big move to above 13000 , now is time to go down for completing wave E of contracting triangle , after making this we have a big move to reach all time high
NASDAQ Close to a multi month buy signal but watch also the RSI.Nasdaq trades on a Falling Wedge inside a Channel Up.
If the MACD (1d) makes a Bullish Crossing, it confirms the continuation of the uptrend.
If the RSI (1d) crosses back under the MA line, it confirms a reversal.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the current market price.
2. Sell if the RSI (1d) crosses back under the MA line and the MACD (1d) fails to make the Bullish Crossing.
Targets:
1. 13750 (Resistance 1 and High of August 2022).
2. 12650 (bottom of Rising Wedge and MA50 (1d)).
Tips:
1. The RSI (1d) breaking back under the MA line, has been a bearish signal since the start of 2022 so keep a close eye.
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Notes:
This is a continuation of this trading plan:
NASDAQ: Potential rise to fill the August 2022 Gap.Nasdaq crossed over the dotted Channel Down and turned bullish, negated any potential similarity with the March 6th top that prompted to one final pullback. With 1D technicals turning bullish (RSI = 58.126, MACD = 113.800, ADX = 33.345), this indicates that there is still strong potential to extend the rise. Our Short term target is the HH trendline (TP = 13,350) and medium term R1, which is the August 16th 2022 top (TP = 13,730).
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Weekly Update: So Far... Everything is Going According to PlanI’ve shared this chart with my followers for a couple months now. You can check my posting history to see how the forecasts have NOT changed, but the chart is filling in nicely. Tracking the minutia at the micro level has been maddening over the last month. In my trading room I’ve advised my members to focus on the intermediate term pattern depicted in the above chart.
Nonetheless, yesterday’s seemingly straight up move after about 9 am I’m sure scared traders who were positioned short. The irony of yesterday’s price action was although price traded not unexpectedly in my micro target box perfectly, I was expecting that sort of price action to take up till Monday or Tuesday of next week. So, in today’s market I’m not ruling out one more high into the 4170 area which would be the .786% retracement area. Much above that and the potential gets raised of invalidating our triangle pattern we started back in the last week of December 2022. But with no violation of the micro target box region which stood at 4130-4170 when price was at 4068.75 I have to continue to adopt the triangle pattern.
So how does this triangle pattern conclude?
I have guided both members and followers of my work with red arrows on the above chart since the end of February 2023 when the triangle pattern was first given credence. Currently, I am projecting this pattern to conclude mid-to-third-week in May. Yesterday’s price action has caused me to adopt a more sub-divided a-wave of our larger e-wave of the triangle, to complete our primary circle B. This was adopted after what I originally would be our a-wave came up slightly short of the 4064-4065 area, followed by a quick a-b-c retracement yesterday into 4166.50.
Yesterday’s price action, although introduced further complexity and sub-divisions into what I am projecting as an e-wave bottom in a larger triangle B…to the degree we do not eclipse 4170, but ultimately 4198.50 (which would be a new short term high).
I have to say… so far, everything is going according to plan.
High volatility in the next 5 days!In the next five days we are going to have:
PCE
Consumer sentiment
PMI
JOLT
And most importantly:
FED interest rate decision
Important earnings of:
AMZN
AAPL
and 1500 other companies, some as big as XOM and CVX!
My quantitative model at the moment of publishing this chart: (This could change in the near future)
Is the FED going to increase the rate by another 25 points?
Based on today's PCE data, it looks like a very strong possibility!
nasdaq nalysis 24/04/2023dear traders last setup was respected this key level meant alot so follow the instruction and trade safe wait always for price action to react from each zone good luck
NASDAQ BREAKDOWN ANALYSISdear traders nasdaq wa in down trend after this drop it start to correct last move so follow the instruction in the chart and trade safe wait always for price action to react trade safe and good luck
NASDAQ Correction still has some steam left.Almost 2 weeks ago we called for a multi-day correction on Nasdaq (NDX) after the price broke below the Inner Higher Lows trend-line and the 1D RSI got rejected on the 70.00 overbought Resistance:
Our view is unchanged and we see a few more days extending this correction to the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) at least or the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level as it happened on the March 13 Low on the long-term Channel Up.
The only probability of this getting invalidated and start rebounding now is the potential buying pressure that the RSI Higher Lows trend-line may apply, which got hit yesterday. However we see more likely the scenario of the RSI transitioning into a Rectangle, having 43.40 as its bottom.
Our target remains 13400, which is a little under the 1W MA100 (red trend-line), that has rejected break-out attempts twice since May 05 2022.
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NASDAQ Bottom not in yet but closeNasdaq may be inside a long term Channel Up but for the whole month of April has been trading inside a Channel Down.
That is the same pattern that was formed after the February 2nd top.
The price hasn't touched the 1day MA50 since March 15th but is approaching it. We expect the bottom to take place a little under it.
Buy after closing under the 1day MA50 while the 1day RSI hits the bottom of the Channel Down and target 13550.
Previous chart:
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NQ RSI OversoldWent to grab some lunch (I'm on west coast) and noticed that RSI hit oversold on ES, NQ, and RTY. MI is not quite there yet but it'll hit it before market open tomorrow. If you;re short, I suggest closing some positions if not all.
Oddly, this is an indicator for me to buy PCAR, lol, but I think the earnings play was good enough since I'm taking the day off tomorrow. Gap direction will still depend on GOOG and MSFT earnings.
All cash, no trades, but I figure I'd post this for my awesome loyal followers.
Nasdaq -> Bearish Then BullishHello Traders,
welcome to this free and educational multi-timeframe technical analysis .
On the weekly timeframe you can see that Nas100 just recently perfecly broke above a major previous weekly resistance area at the HKEX:12 ,500 level which is now turned quite strong support.
You can also see that weekly market structure and moving averages are both bullish, indicating that we definitely have more upside potential long term so I am now just waiting for a deep retest of the previous resistance zone before I then do expect more weekly continuation towards the upside.
On the daily timeframe it seems like Nas100 actually formed a top formation over the past couple of days so I am now very interested in a short term short opportunity back to the weekly support at the HKEX:12 ,500 area before I then also do expect a next daily rally towards the upside.
Thank you for watching and I will see you tomorrow!
You can also check out my previous analysis of this asset:
What if....
what if we have a yield curve that hasn't been inverted this much in 40 years
what if we've enjoyed 15 straight years of bull markets
what if this is just the start of the correction
what if I told you that I've tested 50 indicators and identified that this correction (on a weekly scale) thus far has matched identically to the START of the dot com bubble (on a daily scale)- March 2000 to June 2000
what if I told you that if you scale the duration of start of the dot com crash to this correction, this correction would be 5.9 X the duration of the dot com bubble and this correction will end it 4.5 years.
I'd encourage you to examine the start of the dot com bubble from March 2000 to June 2000 (daily scale) and compare to the current weekly Nasdaq technicals and see for yourself.
I hope this isn't the case, but what if...
Good Luck
In Bitcoin You Trust?I keep hearing an awful lot about bitcoin is the future, that bitcoin will skyrocket to $100,000 which makes no sense because they fail to realize the amount of money that would take. I wonder where the money comes from...? In this chart, I will give my take on Bitcoin and where I see it going. If I am wrong, I gladly accept it but I highly doubt that I will be. Let's start where it begins:
Bitcoin 2017
In December 2017, Bitcoin futures were now offered and part of the market thanks to CBOE . As you can tell, in early 2018, up to Dec 2018 bitcoin wasn't following the equities market until 2019 where we see the Nasdaq rising consecutively from Feb 2019 until July 2019. In that same period we also see Bitcoin rallying. It isn't until March 2020 where we see the truth. Bitcoin crash as the same time as the markets did, and in fact it lead in terms of percentage lost, it was the worst performing asset.
Quantitative Easing
March 2020 saw the beginning of QE4, where the Fed started throwing money at everything. Hence the parabolic rise in the stock market, setting new all time highs.... during a PANDEMIC & RECESSION. Make sense? Not at all. The Fed is solely responsible for the markets rallying. Period. Ironic that at the same time the Equities market rises, Bitcoin also rallies.
Quantitative Tightening
In Nov, 2021, the Fed announced that QE had done its job (creating the biggest bubble ever) and now stated they were going to ease, and reduce their balance sheet . Well, as we saw, the Nasdaq AND Bitcoin peaked in November 2021 and started crashing significantly. Once again, Bitcoin was the leading loser and worst performing asset.
2023 Rally Explained
Now, investors are looking at Bitcoin rising from $16,000 to now $28,000 and saying this the beginning of a bull market. But, once again, with a little digging we see that stocks and bitcoin are rising because...... The Fed Balance sheet skyrocketed during the March banking crisis. Stocks were crashing but in came the Plunge Protection Team, saved the day by pumping the dying toxic stock market. The stock market is like a nice looking car, but under the hood and on the inside, it's all old, worn, broken, missing the engine, torn up and abused. The stock market does not reflect the economy, because if it did, the markets would be down 50% at least.
If you need a visual aid, search S&P500 vs Fed Balance Sheet
Conclusion and Key Take Away's
- Bitcoin follows the market, no doubt.
- Bitcoin benefitted from QE
- Bitcoin is NOT a safe haven, and in fact is -the worst asset to hold during turmoil.
- Bitcoin , like the equities market is manipulated and controlled.
So, where do I see Bitcoin going? I see it collapsing when the markets collapse. The markets can not hide the absolutely horrible economic data much longer. If this was 2008, based on this data coming out, markets would be far passed a correction. The ONLY thing holding this market up is the Fed and it'll continue to do so for a little more until it slips their control. So, if the stock market collapses and if we clearly see that Bitcoin follows the stock market to a T, than what does this mean for crypto when markets fall? It will once more collapse and be the worst performing asset when it does fall. Smart money is going into gold and silver . Everyone else believes in crypto as a safe-haven, yet clearly have not done simple due diligence to see that not only is it not a safe haven, but between commodities , stocks, and treasuries, crypto is absolute worst asset to own. The $30 trillion dollar QE charade bubble is about to explode and there is nothing anyone can do to stop it. The data is getting worse. The consumer debt is at record highs and savings are at record lows. Retail isn't coming back. Discretionary spending is down significantly. Demand has collapsed. ISM crashed. Manufacturing crashing. Housing is crashing faster and steeper than in 2008. Autos down significantly. Inventories are down to March 2020 lows. Orders are being cancelled. Layoffs are rising faster than in the last 3 years. The writing is on the wall folks, they can't hide this much longer. The greed will give way to financial pain.
Benefit from BTC crash?
Absolutely. Look into BITI and go from there ;)
NASDAQ: Consolidating. Breakout and pullback levels to considerNasdaq is consolidating around the 4H MA50 for the past 2 weeks with 1D technicals turning neutral (RSI = 54.883, MACD = 132.650, ADX = 34.947) for the first time in 1 month. The LH trendline on the 4H RSI hints to comparisons with the February consolidation. That pattern broke under the 4H MA200 to the 0.5 Fibonacci level and then rebounded.
Consequently, we are either buying a potential breakout over the consolidation Channel or a pullback near the 0.5 Fibonacci. In either occasion we target the R1 (TP = 13,750).
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Weekly Update: Is EVERYTHING about to come down together?Is a rare event when multiple planets are aligned in the night’s sky. It’s rarer still, when their aligned, and visible to the naked eye, and on-lookers do not require the use of a telescope.
Let me explain.
My crypto currency coverage list (SOL, ETH, BTC and ADA) have been rallying and hitting some of their initial sub-divided targets higher where I would soon expect them to retrace. Financials (XLF) could be completing a minor wave 4 high and now coming down in a wave 5. The SPX and the ES appears to have just completed their D-wave high in what I'm counting as a triangle and should be coming down as early as today. I suspect if I looked at some of the heavily weighted stocks of the SP500 they would show the same pattern and potential conclusion.
Is everything aligned?
The downside IN EVERYTHING appears clear enough, you don’t require a telescope to see that.
