NASDAQ 100 CFD
TECH M! Retest and Continuation?? Tech Mahindra has been consolidating for quite a while now. just as with any other cream IT Company, looks like it's gearing up for some momentum.
It formed a beautiful symmetric triangle breakout and is now in a retest mode. A continuation of that breakout can trigger some good momentum.
Also, check out our opinion on the overall IT Sector.
What do you think??
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DJI - Rising Trend Channel [MID -TERM]🔹Index achieved 35137 after breakout Rectangle formation.
🔹Supports 34200 in NEGATIVE reaction.
🔹Technically POSITIVE for medium long-term.
Chart Pattern;
🔹DT - Double Top | BEARISH | 🔴
🔹DB - Double Bottom | BULLISH | 🟢
🔹HNS - Head & Shoulder | BEARISH | 🔴
🔹REC - Rectangle | 🔵
🔹iHNS - inverse head & Shoulder | BULLISH | 🟢
Verify it first and believe later.
WavePoint ❤️
NDX - Rising Trend Channel [MID -TERM]🔹Index shows NEGATIVE signal from double top formation, broke support at 15426.
🔹Signals further decline to 15057 or lower.
🔹Supports 13600 and resistance at 15800
🔹Technically NEUTRAL for medium long-term.
Chart Pattern;
🔹DT - Double Top | BEARISH | 🔴
🔹DB - Double Bottom | BULLISH | 🟢
🔹HNS - Head & Shoulder | BEARISH | 🔴
🔹REC - Rectangle | 🔵
🔹iHNS - inverse head & Shoulder | BULLISH | 🟢
Verify it first and believe later.
WavePoint ❤️
Nasdaq M Formation showing a pull back on the cards to 14,314M Formation has formed on Nasdaq after a stellar uptrend.
It's normal for the market to dip and for the buyers to bank their profits.
I don't think the downside will be strong and powerful. So my first target is only to 14,314.
We will then most likely consolidate, move sideways and then head up.
But you'll be the first to know.
NASDAQ near the MA200 (4h). Still a buy.Nasdaq is approaching the MA200 (4h) which is untouched since May 4th.
This is the natural technical Support that rests now exactly at the bottom of not only the recent Rising Support but also the 5 month Channel Up.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the current market price.
Targets:
1. 16500 (Fibonacci 2.0 extension, same as July rally's target).
Tips:
1. The (4h) MACD is repeating almost an exact sequence as June 16th-July 10th. This is how the Fibonacci 2.0 target is derived. You can confirm your buy entry with the next Bullish Cross.
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Notes:
Past trading plan:
Is the Market Deluding Itself with a Soft Landing Fantasy?As markets surge against expectations, many are starting to believe that the impossible might unfold. The unusually low fund allocation to equities reflects a market sentiment plagued by fear, yet mega caps are continuing to rise against expectations, making some investors feel left behind. With GDP figures beating expectations and headline inflation plummeting, markets are now starting to believe the soft landing narrative. Can the Federal Reserve, after decades of economic engineering, finally dodge a recession? The bond market remains skeptical.
When the yield curve inverted, everyone thought a recession was imminent. However, many overlook the lag between the onset of the inversion and an actual recession. Depending on historical context, a recession can either hit while the yield curve remains inverted or much later, once it has normalised. Thus, relying solely on the yield curve as a recession indicator can be misleading.
Nevertheless, history has consistently shown that a recession follows the inversion at some point. However, the human psyche is notoriously impatient. If a predicted event doesn't manifest promptly, the market tends to discount its possibility. Remember, most people buy at tops and sell at bottoms. So, the real question isn't whether a recession will happen, but rather when.
Why and When Could a Recession Happen?
The Federal Reserve holds significant influence over this timeline. As long as interest rates hover around 5.5%, the recession clock ticks faster. With headline inflation plummeting (orange line) and inflation expectations paralleling this descent (blue line), we must understand what caused inflation initially to gauge where it's headed.
The inflationary surge was mostly driven by the excessive expansion of the money supply. Examining the first derivative of the US money supply (M2) shows a rapid expansion followed by a subsequent decline. Comparing the growth rate of the money supply (yellow line) with the CPI year-over-year (orange line) reveals a 16-month lag. If this lag remains consistent, there's significant potential downside to inflation.
Yet, the Fed continues to hike rates, despite projections of disinflation and deflation. This is because the Fed's job isn't to predict the future, but to respond to current data. Indicators showing a robust labor market and elevated Core PCE caution against prematurely reducing rates. It would be wise for the Fed to await signs of weakening in these indicators before contemplating rate cuts.
This could potentially take a while to materialise, especially since unemployment doesn't seem poised to weaken in the immediate future. Unlike previous business cycles, the current situation stands out due to the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) data. There remains a significant number of job openings for every unemployed individual. This bolsters the resilience of the labor market, making rate cuts less probable.
Furthermore, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) - a lagging indicator - remains historically high and resilient. Powell has emphasised the Fed's intent to avoid repeating the same mistakes made in the '70s, suggesting we should expect higher rates for longer in order to permanently get Core PCE to 2%. He's also highlighted the relative ease of stimulating the economy out of a recession compared to raising rates, implying it might be more straightforward for the Fed to rein in Core PCE by inducing a recession.
Similarly, the government can't afford the risk of the Fed raising rates later on. Considering the government's dependency on low-cost borrowing to manage interest payments on existing debts, higher future rates could pose a big challenge. Fortunately, the Fed uses the Reverse Repo (blue line) as a strategic tool to bypass any potential liquidity crisis until they are able to finance the government's balance sheet (orange line) with cheap debt once again.
Given that interest expenses are nearing 1 trillion USD, the Fed will inevitably have to cut rates to zero and initiate Quantitative Easing (QE) in the future. Remember, the sole limitation to Keynesian economics is inflation. Hence, it's logical for the Fed to avoid risking a resurgence of inflation. In essence, a recession might be essential for the Fed's future assistance to the government.
Deciphering the Stock Market's Puzzle
Despite Powell's frequent emphasis on a 'higher for longer' stance, the market remains skeptical. This is alarming, especially as the full implications of a 5.5% rate haven't been fully experienced by the economy. Once they manifest, job openings will plummet, unemployment figures will surge, and the 'soft landing' illusion might crumble. Historically, such scenarios are common when real rates reach unsustainable levels.
Fortunately for investors, there seems to be room for the AI bubble to continue. Markets typically peak about a month before a sustained increase in unemployment. Hence, forward-looking unemployment indicators like job openings, initial claims (blue line), and continued claims (orange line) are crucial for those wishing to divest before a potential market downturn.
In the current scenario, it might be wise for investors to stay away from higher-risk assets like small caps and cryptocurrencies. Historically, these haven't performed as well as mega caps during liquidity crunches. Investors might want to reconsider taking on additional risks unless there's a sustained surge in global liquidity (yellow line).
Conclusion: A Time for Caution and Opportunity
In conclusion, even though a recession seems inevitable, mega caps may continue their upward trend until the labor market reveals signs of distress. Therefore, it's crucial for investors to closely watch leading unemployment indicators and central bank balance sheets to ensure they're well-positioned for both the upcoming market downturn and the subsequent recovery.
Disclaimer: This article is intended for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be investment advice. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and you should conduct your own research when making a decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Long LILM No clue what these people do. had a great long off the lows. got my hand burnt shorting, but positive profit so far. Buying here, small size, no stop. Not advise
$DJI $NDX $SPX $RUT closesHow #indices closed last week.
TVC:DJI
After a BEARISH ENGULFING it then closed Friday with a doji = battle for the bulls and bears which is unresolved
NASDAQ:NDX
Fighting back but it is still showing Negative RSI Divergence.
SP:SPX
Suffering from Negative Divergence. We''ll how #SPX trades over the next few days, weeks. AMEX:RSP (Equal weight) was weaker. This means that the usual big boys pulled more weight.
TVC:RUT needs big move soon, lower highs.
Lots of earnings this week! Have a great trading week!
28072023 - #NDX15800 was a key resistance and we got a almost 400points sell off from there. TBH, the daily candle is bearish but did not clear previous low; thus it might not be so bearish?
But plan for today would be to look for a possible rejection off 15625 for a move lower, possibly to 15333. But as mentioned, the BOJ meeting later would likely be the main driver for the move (or at least the initial reaction), thus it would likely be a move before US session.
Indices roundup from post a lil over week agoiBarely more than a week we stated that RISK in #equities was INCREASING.
We also gave our thoughts on some #indices .
Let's see what has happened since that post:
NASDAQ:NDX has cooled off - check
TVC:DJI pumped since then - check
Likely topping out short term here though.
TVC:VIX has been trading sideways - check
Does seem like it's beginning to gain momentum.
TVC:RUT & AMEX:RSP (Equal weight #SPX) are both higher - check
Shows that the big boys aren't the only ones running.
#stocks
NASDAQ: Entering a consolidation zone.Nasdaq got rejected again on the 4H MA50 and as the 4H timeframe turned neutral (RSI = 49.851, MACD = -15.090, ADX = 34.425), it is highly likely to see the index entering a consolidation/ accumulation phase similar to April's and June's. Depending on its length, it may even create a new, less aggressive Channel Up.
The key for the uptrend to be maintained is to hold first the 4H MA200 and second the 1D MA50. We will buy once the price hits the bottom of the Channel Up and target its top (TP = 16,400).
Prior idea:
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26072023 - #NDX15575 given yesterday gave a good short for 60 points to BZ before it went higher.
Not going to repeat the same story here as what I put for SPX but looking for a possible pullback today from the PZ. It will be more of a move during European/US session before FOMC.
If we do get a sell to 15385, will be good for a long before FOMC.
NASDAQ Is starting the final bullish wave to the All Time High.Nasdaq / US100 continues to trade inside the Channel Up pattern of the last 6 months.
The price is staging a rebound just over the 15280 former Resistance and if it holds, that will be the final phase of the bullish leg that aims at a new Higher High of the Channel Up and will inevitably challenge the All Time High at 16790.
The last two rallies achieved runs of 13.40%-13.80%.
As long as the 1day MA50 supports, which is now exactly at the bottom of the Channel Up, keep buying and target 16700.
Another strong buy indication is the 1day RSI hitting (and holding) the Rising Support.
Previous chart:
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US100 short term short potential tradeLooks like we still have some downside potential on US100. Today we failed to break the red sell zone. Looking for a further downside move tomorrow.
Entry - 15447
Stoploss - 15500 (I would like to see a 30 min candle to close above that red box)
First Target - 15390
Final Target - 15300
Let me know your thoughts. Happy trading!
25072023 - #NDXNDX nicely hit our sell limit and sold off to support level for a good 120 points before the rebound. Overall NDX continued to be weak but DJIA is holding up SPX. Which direction next?
Yesterday's candle point to a POSSIBLE short term low. If so, then we should see further upside. But IMO if that is so, DJIA will be a better long. Also, still need confirmation if price is to break higher so for now, NDX is still a possible sell with confirmation
Looking at a sell coming from 15529/75.
Wheat predictions: How winding up grain deal blows up the price The world is "not optimistic" that the grain-export corridor that has allowed it to ship more than 30 million tons of crops amid the Russia - Ukraine tensions will be extended beyond July, the country’s infrastructure minister said Wednesday.
The efficiency of the Black Sea corridor is faltering and crop volumes are declining. Even if prolonged, it won’t be as helpful in offloading the nearing 2023 harvests in its current state.
"We are doing our best in order to maintain this initiative", - Mr. Kubrakov (who signed the deal) said.
The deal — which was brokered by the United Nations and Turkey — has helped lower world food prices and maintain a sector that is vital for Ukraine’s economy.
It is next up for renewal on July 17, nearby July, 2023 CBOT:ZWN2023 Wheat Futures contract expiration.
Russian President Vladimir Putin already signaled that his nation may quit the pact, though the UN has urged all parties to press on.
There are no prerequisites for extending the grain deal, Mr. Peskov, press secretary of the Russian President said on June 21.
The deal has recently been plagued by a persistent slowdown in ship inspections, and Russia’s refusal to approve vessels headed to one of the three ports it covers.
Some 1.3 million tons of crops were shipped via the corridor in May, less than a third of the peak in October, UN figures show.
The technical picture indicates, Wheat Futures contracts are heading up for the 5th consecutive weeks in a row, second time since Q1 2022, last time due to widely known tensions between Russia and Ukraine.
With almost 30 percent gain from 2023 low near 575 cents per bushel, the price breaking up 1/2-year simple moving average, with further upside opportunities, up to 800 cents per bushel.
24072023 - #DNXNDX continued to be weak while DJIA is what is holding SPX up. Friday's move was much motivated by OPEX. Despite Thursday's strong down, we did not really get the bearish continuation which I was looking for, as market chose to rally first, but that was a low risk short for a move down.
For today, just to keep it simple, looking for a possible up move, rejection for a move lower.
As mentioned in my DAX post, note the level to watch for DAX, as confluence for rejection for the move lower.
NDX - Rising Trend Channel [MID -TERM]🔹RSI bearish diverges against the price, indicating downward reaction.
🔹Between support 15200 and next resistance 15830.
🔹Technically POSITIVE for the medium long term.
Chart Pattern;
🔹DT - Double Top | BEARISH | 🔴
🔹DB - Double Bottom | BULLISH | 🟢
🔹HNS - Head & Shoulder | BEARISH | 🔴
🔹REC - Rectangle | 🔵
🔹iHNS - inverse head & Shoulder | BULLISH | 🟢
Verify it first and believe later.
WavePoint ❤️
NASDAQ Buy after a confirmed MACD Bullish CrossNasdaq crossed under the MA50 (4h) for the first time in 10 days and looks to complete a technical correction inside the long term Channel Up.
There is a Rising Support, marginally over the MA200 (4h) and near the bottom of the Channel Up to consider as buy entry.
However the recent price action has shown that the lower risk buy entries have been after the MACD (4h) made a Bullish Cross.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy when the MACD (4h) forms a Bullish Cross.
Targets:
1. 15935 (recent High).
Tips:
1. The index is overbought on the (1w) timeframe so a stronger correction (e.g. MA50 1d) is plausible. Apply tight risk management to your buys.
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