NDQ, NDX, Nasdaq, Us100 setupIf price should trade above my Take profit 15209.56 - 15210.69 before 9:30am NY time on the 6th of Nov 2023, then I favor a market reversal to take profit below. But if market doesn't do that, I look for a direction which I believe the market should be going. Idea will be updated frequently.
This is a daily chart
NASDAQ 100 CFD
NASDAQ About to test the MA50 (1d). Break out and rejection planNasdaq is posting the 3rd bullish leg inside the Channel Down pattern on the 1D time frame.
It is about to hit the MA50 (1d), above which all prior Lower Highs have been priced near the 0.786 Fibonacci level.
The medium term trend remains bearish until this level gets broken.
Trading Plan:
1. Sell on the current market price.
2. Buy if the price crosses over the 0.786 Fibonacci level.
Targets:
1. 14650 (near the 0.382 Fibonacci level, where both Channel top rejections made the first drop).
2. 15330 (Resistance 1 and previous Lower High)
Tips:
1. The MACD (1d) just formed a Bullish Cross. The previous two were formed half way through the rises, so it is possible this one is stronger, hence our bullish break out option.
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Notes:
Past trading plan:
Nasdaq - Short November - fill gapsWord of caution: In all fairness, I did get stopped last night
So perhaps I am wrong again, as I may underestimate a potential
year-to-end rally (elections, they probably don't want to rock the boat)
JPMorgan turned bullish after yesterday's FOMC.
Goldman Sachs & Bank of America are also calling for a year-to-end rally.
So, take this trade with a grain of salt.
Go Down, Moses.. To Let My Shekel Go... 😕Shekel drops to 4 against the dollar, in first since 2015.
Currency’s weakness comes as conflict rages, even after Bank of Israel announced plan to intervene in the foreign exchange market to try and contain sharp shekel FOREXCOM:USDILS moves.
The exchange rate of the New Israeli Shekel on Monday crossed the threshold of NIS 4 per dollar, the local currency’s weakest level since 2015, with Israel in its 10th day of conflict with the Hamas terror group.
Since the devastating massacre launched by Hamas on October 7 in Israel’s southern communities, in which more than 1,300 were killed, more than 4,000 injured, and some 200 kidnapped by terrorists, the shekel has dropped by about four percent against the US dollar.
Investor uncertainty over the duration and scope of the conflict has been growing in recent days, with the Israel Defense Forces gearing up for a ground operation to smash the terrorist organization in the Gaza Strip.
The currency’s weakness comes even as the Bank of Israel last week announced a plan to intervene in the foreign exchange market to try and moderate shekel volatility after the country formally declared a state of war. As part of the program, the central bank can sell up to $30 billion in foreign exchange to protect the shekel from collapse.
It was also introduced to “provide necessary liquidity for the continued proper functioning of the markets,” the Bank of Israel said.
Israel’s consumer price index (CPI), a measure of inflation that tracks the average cost of household goods, unexpectedly decelerated 0.1% in September, before Hamas’s unprecedented attack, figures by the statistics bureau.
Following the lower-than-expected September print, economists and market participants have started to price in an interest rate cut by the Bank of Israel as early as at its next monetary policy meeting on October 23, or even earlier, should it be necessary.
The September CPI index points to the fact that the economy was slowing even before the conflict broke out.
Meanwhile technical graph for FOREXCOM:USDILS says, U.S. dollar is about to break out major multi year resistance against shekel, where 4 shekels is a key to watch at the end of Q4'23.
NASDAQ working with liquidityHello trader! Today, let's trade the good old US100. A nice setup has formed for entry and taking out the lower liquidity. There are possibilities that the price may go and take out the liquidity from above, but the chances of a move downwards are much higher.
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NASDAQ Can it hold the 1D MA200 ahead of the Fed and NFP?Nasdaq (NDX) has a strong rebound near the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) last week, which formed the latest Lower Low at the bottom of the 3.5 month Channel Down. Ahead of today's Fed Rate Decision and Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls, it is important for investors to see the index holding the 1D MA200 as Support, as it will provide the technical backing for at least a short-term rise.
As long as it does, our target is 14850, which is a level that meets all 4 bullish criteria:
1) Is on the 0.236 Fibonacci Channel level (all previous 3 Channel Down bullish legs hit at least this level).
2) Is on/ below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line).
3) Is less than +6.28% (which has been the lowest % rise of a bullish leg withi this Channel).
4) Is (quite) below the 0.786 horizontal Fibonacci level (all previous bullish legs almost hit it).
If however the 1D RSI hits the 58.50 level (Resistance 1) before the index hits the 14850 target, we will book the profit earlier, as that RSI Resistance has formed the last 2 Lower Highs of the Channel Down.
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DCFC f-ing meWelp my average buy in is $0.43, CEO hugged biden or something thought it was a safe punt at $0.70 after 99% draw down lol. Down more then I would like to admit on this one, but still only 5% of trading account....not ideal of course. Lets see what happens. Will sell before year for tax loss. Not Advise, good luck.
#NDX - 31102023Yesterday market slowly went up, hit 14300 resistance, dipped exactly to the 14256 strong level and rallied to the next at 100points before selling back down on BOJ news. I did say 14256 is key but the lows was given exactly at the PZ, together with SPX PZ as it recovered and made new highs.
BOJ meeting today. I would think it will create some volatility. Price action on USDJPY looks bearish. Will we see a repeat of December 2022? That was when USDJPY sold off sharply with indices. But indices found a base before European session and eventually recovered.
Daily price action is bullish. But still capped at 14330 strong resistance. I set 14450 as a sell limit for yesterday but was not triggered. My buy limit is at 13900. 14250 is a strong support.
TBH it looks different between NDX and SPX. NDX does look toppish and would minimally pullback but SPX looks stronger. But if, as I said yesterday, market need to capitulate by making a new low first before it can meaningfully recover, then BOJ could be the event to trigger such, before a sharp rebound.
Yesterday's 14255 will continue to be key, a break will trigger the down to 14101, 14011 and 13881. Can only take it level by level; market could well just make a higher low (anything lower requires much panic). But overall 13760- 13879 will be good to scale in longs for a rebound (will not discount 13760). And if spike up, 14430 will be key.
NASDAQ Rebounding on the 1D MA200 and targeting 15,000Nasdaq is trading inside a Channel Down since the July High and is naturally on bearish 1D technicals (RSI = 39.169, MACD = -233.06, ADX = 37.454). This is a buy opportunity though as the price is rebounding today after making a LL bottom almost on the 1D MA200. That is a long term Support level, being unbroken since March 13th. The second bottom indication is given by the 1D RSI which hit and bounced from inside the S1 Zone, as both previous bottoms have.
Every rebound rose almost as high as the 0.786 Fibonacci level to make a LH top. Consequently we turn bullish and target that Fib level (TP = 15,000) which is slightly over the 1D MA50.
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NASDAQ 1day MA200 test after more than 7 months. Huge BUY!!Nasdaq / US100 is trading inside a Channel Down since the July 19th high.
Today the price not only touched the bottom of that Channel but is about to test the 1day MA200 for the first time in more than 7 months.
As the 1day RSI is on the same level as the Channel's previous two Lows, this is technically the best buy opportunity on a quarterly basis.
Buy and target 15000 (top of Channel Down and 0.786 Fibonacci which was where the previous Lower Highs were formed)
Previous chart:
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$NDX breaking atm, $SPX will follow, can $DJI & $RUT hold?TVC:NDQ looks to be in SERIOUS trouble at the moment.
IF this is the case then the SP:SPX likely will follow.
DJ:DJI can hold, to a degree but wouldn't bet on it.
Let's focus on AMEX:SPY
Oversold daily BUT WEEKLY it has more room to go.
Also, in comparison to 2022, #stockmarkets are likely FURTHER along than anticipated. The chart we've been showing for some time.
Unless change FAST = 💀
NASDAQ Power Sell can potentially reach 14200 and lower to 13200FOMC Major Resistances and Trendlines broken
The market is bearish
maybe a P shape trap of the bulls,Dont fall into trap
In nivember or December the next Rate hike Possibility increasing.
The inidcator above shos the trend of the Highs which are red, while the market making higher highs temporarily, and lower lows. The long 15D trend, here displayed on 7 H chart shows it clearly. Use proper Moneymangement
US100 Nasdaq Scenario 3:Bearish Target Pre-Gap Next 2 WeeksRed September, Low Volatility, FED, mixed news.
The worst trading month of the year has just begun. Thi week Wednesday is more important.
2 Gaps are still open. Up from next week , we will have rarely 3 open gaps(contracts rollover).
This is the firt senario if Nasaq reaches upper gap first15850-159950.
14416 is the key level. Once breaking we will see the drop down.
Traget: Pre Gap: 14650-14750
Use proper Money mangemant.
US100 Nadaq100 Scenario 4: Bearish+ Super Bullish Next 6 WeeksRed September, Low Volatility, FED, mixed news.
The worst trading month of the year has just begun. Thi week Wednesday is more important.
2 Gaps are still open. Up from next week , we will have rarely 3 open gaps(contracts rollover).
This is the firt senario if Nasaq reaches upper gap first15850-159950.
If Nasdaq fails to reach upper gap first, we will see this scenario soon. Europe and US will show the trend down(Short Term).
In case we reach 14750 and fill the gap 14500 zone, but the news might be !!!! negative for Indice, we will also see a 10% drop down to 14250-14200-13850 and 13250-13500(Possible!!!).
The retracement will be very bullish agressive so we can time our buy strategy.
Below 13000 zone is the agressive Bull zone where the major trend has started and the Bulls will successfully defend that zone.
It is also possible that we will fill 13500 zone gap later....in 2024. Nasdaq has to break up firt 17000-19950 area to get ready for its first healthy correction in 2024-2025.
If we reach to southern area in September or this year, I am 100% sure we will fly to 19000 area after reaching those targets.
Use proper Money mangemant.
US100 Nasdaaq Scenario 1: BULLISH Next 2 WeeksRed September, Low Volatility, FED, mixed news.
The worst trading month of the year has just begun. Thi week Wednesday is more important.
2 Gaps are still open. Up from next week , we will have rarely 3 open gaps(contracts rollover).
This is the firt senario if Nasaq reaches upper gap first15850-159950.
Use proper Money mangemant.
NASDAQ Price Trends Analysis: Identifying Overvaluation Periods The NASDAQ, one of the most closely watched stock indices globally, is often characterized by its volatility and tendency to be influenced by tech and growth stocks. In this analysis, we will examine three key elements: periods of overvaluation represented by "circles," the potential presence of hidden bullish RSI divergence in green, and bearish RSI divergence in red.
2. Overvaluation Periods:
The "circles" in the NASDAQ context may be interpreted as periods when stock valuations are likely to be overextended. Investors, driven by excessive optimism, may push stock prices to unsustainable levels relative to underlying company fundamentals. These overvaluation periods can be attributed to various factors, including irrational market enthusiasm, speculative bubbles, or favorable macroeconomic conditions.
To identify these periods, a graphical analysis of NASDAQ price movements, highlighting significant price spikes or speculative bubbles, can be valuable. The goal is to identify moments when price trends significantly deviate from the overall trajectory.
3. Hidden Bullish RSI Divergence in Green:
Hidden bullish RSI divergence in green on the chart can suggest potential improvement in the underlying market strength, even when prices continue to decline or remain stagnant. This situation could imply a possible trend reversal to the upside.
4. Bearish RSI Divergence in Red:
Bearish RSI divergence in red on the chart may indicate potential weakness in the upward trend, even if prices continue to rise. This can signal a potential trend reversal to the downside.
5. Conclusion:
In summary, the NASDAQ, as a major stock index, experiences significant fluctuations. "Circles" may indicate overvaluation periods, while hidden bullish RSI divergence in green and bearish RSI divergence in red can signal potential opportunities for trend reversal. It is essential for investors to closely monitor these indicators and incorporate them into their decision-making processes.
However, it is important to note that stock market investments come with inherent risks, and no technical analysis can guarantee success. It is highly recommended that investors consult with qualified financial advisors before making investment decisions.
This analysis is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results, and stock market investments carry risks.
NASDAQ Numerous technical indicators call for a Buy.Nasdaq (NDX) gave us a low risk sell trade last week (see chart below), where after taking the loss on the Channel Up bottom buy, we reversed to selling on the break-out and hit 14530:
Standard 'buy low, sell the breakout if invalidated' approach that aims at assuming low risk near supports/ resistances and high return when those break.
This sell-off brought the price on the Lower Lows (bottom) trend-line of the Falling Wedge for the 4th time. Coming of a 4H Death Cross, this is the 2nd Low after its formation, which has previously been a bottom pricing and buy signal. Additionally, the 4H RSI has been on Higher Lows on every bottom. The last indication that this is a solid buy entry, is that the price hit the 1.1 Fibonacci extension (from previous Low to High), which was where the previous two bottoms where formed.
As a result of all the above parameters, we issue a buy signal on Nasdaq and since the previous Lower Highs almost hit the 0.236 Fibonacci level, we set the Target at 15050.
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