Is the Tech bull run over?Here's my Elliott Wave Count on the Nasdaq which suggests we could see some more downside to complete wave {iv}, within the following days, to then resume to the upside.
Feel free to ask me questions, trade safe!
Nasdaq100
NASDAQ Elliott Wave Analysis Higher Timeframe (07/07/2023)The NASDAQ looks bullish and might be preparing for a Wave III to the upside. However, the minimum requirements for a Wave II to the downside were not fulfilled. As long as we do not take out the Wave I high, it could be that we still make a new low as a Wave II.
Short the NasdaqWas charting TQQQ so will just use this chart. I am -2% on a small SQQQ position but adding here. Arguably a double top. If it gets out of that channel possible violent drop I dont want to have to catch. 50% position, will add if we go up. Stops at acceptable loss. Not advise.
Nasdaq -> Plain And SimpleHello Traders and Investors ,
my name is Philip and today I will provide a free and educational multi-timeframe technical analysis of Nas100 💪
After the Nasdaq perfectly retested the monthly 0.618 fibonacci retracement level and also broke above a clear bearish trendline, we had a solid rally of roughly 20%.
Weekly market structure on Nas100 is pretty clear with the Nasdaq retesting previous weekly resistance which is now acting as resistance once again and with the Nasdaq being overextended there is a higher chance that we will see a short term correction.
The Nasdaq is also currently once again retesting daily resistance from which we already broke structure towards the downside so I simply do expect another bearish wave from here.
Keep in mind: Don't get caught up in short term moves and always look at the long term picture; building wealth is a marathon and not a quick sprint 📈
Thank you for watching and I will see you tomorrow!
My previous analysis of this asset:
buy setup for nas100we only searching for buy opportunities after the CHOCH
we have BOS
the price now is trading above the resistance level now turned into support
and maybe the price backtest it or maybe not
so we expect more continuation to the upside
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don't forget your risk management
follow for more :))
NASDAQ Elliott Wave Analysis for Thursday 06/07/2023Although the NASDAQ looks bullish in the higher timeframe, we expect a pullback in the lower timeframe. In the 4 hours, we see 5 waves up and wave 5 is ending with divergence compared to wave 3. If the divergence is not erased, we would expect a pullback. We had another successful trade yesterday. Now we have to wait for more data.
NASDAQ Elliott Wave Analysis for Wednesday 05/07/2023Although the NASDAQ looks bullish in the higher timeframe, we expect a pullback in the lower timeframe. In the 4 hours, we see 5 waves up and wave 5 is ending with divergence compared to wave 3. If the divergence is not erased, we would expect a pullback. However, in the 1 hour, the upward structure looks incomplete so we expect a bit more upside.
NASDAQ Elliott Wave Analysis for Tuesday 04/07/2023Although the NASDAQ looks bullish in the higher timeframe, we expect a pullback in the lower timeframe. In the 4 hours, we see 5 waves up and wave 5 is ending with divergence compared to wave 3. If the divergence is not erased, we would expect a pullback. However, in the 1 hour, the upward structure looks incomplete so we expect a bit more upside.
NQ1! NAS100USD NASDAQ 2023 JULY 04CME_MINI:NQ1! NQ1! NAS100USD NASDAQ 2023 JULY 04
On the daily chart, we see potential trend changing weakness lining up.
Market tested previous high, and stalling around the 14520 level.
Possible Scenarios:
1) Market continues to be marked up on low volume narrow spread up bars = long on retracement
2) Short on test and rejection of recent high / lower high
3) if market forms lower highs, prepare for short
Price Reaction Levels
Short on Test and reject | Long on Test and Accept
16646 15440 14850
14089 13350
*Longer term: 13350 needs to be supported for long trend to be intact.
Price/Volume/Trend Analysis:
Weekly: NTC ave vol up bar close toward high | Up trend
Daily: UT + Lower vol ND up bar = PTC weaknesses lining up.
*NTC = Non-Trend Changing | PTC: Potential Trend Changing
Like and follow if you find this useful.
Have a profitable trading week.
*For education purpose only.
NAS100 is Testing ResistanceBullish pressure occurred and price is testing our resistance 15200 again. I advise you to wait for a reaction, as it is possible to see bearish reaction.
Potential bullish reaction zones: 14930 and 14550
NASDAQ Elliott Wave Analysis for Monday 03/07/2023Although the NASDAQ looks bullish in the higher timeframe, we expect a pullback in the lower timeframe. In the 4 hours, we see 5 waves up and wave 5 is ending with divergence compared to wave 3. If the divergence is not erased, we would expect a pullback. However, in the 1 hour, the upward structure looks incomplete so we expect a bit more upside.
NASDAQ Elliott Wave Analysis Higher Timeframe (01/07/2023)The NASDAQ looks bullish and might be preparing for a Wave III to the upside. However, the minimum requirements for a Wave II to the downside were not fulfilled. As long as we do not take out the Wave I high, it could be that we still make a new low as a Wave II.
NASDAQ Elliott Wave Analysis for Friday 30/06/2023Although the NASDAQ looks bullish in the higher timeframe, we expect a pullback in the lower timeframe. In the 4 hours, we see 5 waves up and wave 5 is ending with divergence compared to wave 3. If the divergence is not erased, we would expect a pullback. However, in the 1 hour, the upward structure looks incomplete and we can go long once the pullback is completed.
NASDAQ Elliott Wave Analysis for Thursday 29/06/2023Although the NASDAQ looks bullish in the higher timeframe, we expect a pullback in the lower timeframe. In the 4 hours, we see 5 waves up and wave 5 is ending with divergence compared to wave 3. If the divergence is not erased, we would expect a pullback. However, in the 1 hour, the upward structure looks incomplete and we can go long once the pullback is completed.
NASDAQ Elliott Wave Analysis for Wednesday 28/06/2023Although the NASDAQ looks bullish in the higher timeframe, we expect a pullback in the lower timeframe. In the 4 hours, we see 5 waves up and wave 5 is ending with divergence compared to wave 3. If the divergence is not erased, we would expect a pullback. However, in the 1 hour, the upward structure looks incomplete and we can go long once the WXY down is completed.
US100From my end my broker is different so the spread did not affect me. The trade was not triggered therefore I stayed out of this.
- the demand was not enough to trigger it
- the supply was more to the other side
Therefore we learn and we understand what has happened.
NASDAQ Elliott Wave Analysis for Tuesday 27/06/2023Although the NASDAQ looks bullish in the higher timeframe, we expect a pullback in the lower timeframe. In the 4 hours, we see 5 waves up and wave 5 is ending with divergence compared to wave 3. If the divergence is not erased, we would expect a pullback. However, in the 1 hour, the upward structure looks incomplete and we can go long once the WXY down is completed.
There is still room above of AMD stock !There is still room above of AMD stock !
This chart shows the Line chart of AMD shares in the last two years. The top to bottom golden section is superimposed in the figure. As shown in the figure, the recent high point of AMD stock happens to be 1.000 level of the top to bottom golden section in the figure, and the recent wave of long start bits also happens to be 2.382 level of the top to bottom golden section in the figure! So, in the future, the probability of AMD stocks will continue to break through upwards, test the 0.618 level of the golden section, and then fall back, fluctuating and weakening!
Closing NDX Shorts, Opening Small LongThis last decline has been beautiful, but time to get realistic. heavy shot profits I am taking off the table, nibbling at longs here with the deviation. Small size, tight stop. Not advice.
Nasdaq -> Preparing The Bearish WaveHello Traders,
welcome to this free and educational multi-timeframe technical analysis.
On the weekly timeframe you can see that Nas100 just retested and already started to reject the major previous weekly structure zone at the psychological $15.000 level.
You can also see that Nas100 retested the resistance of the very bullish rising channel, the next support would be the 38.2% fibonacci retracement level at the $14.000 zone so I am just waiting for more bearish pressure and then I do expect more upside potential.
On the daily timeframe you can see that Nas100 finally broke structure towards the downside with Monday's candle so this is a sign that Nas100 is actually slowing down - I do expect another push lower to retest daily support at the $14.300 level and then I do expect a first bullish rejection.
Thank you for watching and I will see you tomorrow!
You can also check out my previous analysis of this asset:
NAS100 Top-down analysis Hello traders, this is a complete multiple timeframe analysis of this pair. We see could find significant trading opportunities as per analysis upon price action confirmation we may take this trade. Smash the like button if you find value in this analysis and drop a comment if you have any questions or let me know which pair to cover in my next analysis.
We’ve been here before. 2000’s Nasdaq vs Today.The Nasdaq's formidable recovery from the October 2022 bottom resulted in an impressive 42% surge, a rare feat for a major index. However, as it grapples with resistance at the 15250 level this past week, we are compelled to question if this upward momentum is running out of steam. Notably, historical instances where the Relative Strength Index (RSI) soared past the 70 level have often been followed by a downward shift for the index.
We diligently monitor the Nasdaq's ratio against other major indices to gauge its relative value. At its current level, the Nasdaq seems to be trading at a premium compared to several other major indices.
When we consider this ratio, the Nasdaq appears to be near its all-time highs. In fact, it's trading close to or above the levels seen during the dot-com bubble of the 2000s in all comparisons. When juxtaposed with the S&P and Dow, we find that this level is not unprecedented; each time the ratio has previously reached this level, it was swiftly corrected.
Drawing a parallel between the economic conditions of the 2000s and now, it seems that we are in familiar territory, or as they say, ‘we’ve been here before’.
To illustrate the similarities, let's consider the dot-com peak in March 2000 as a reference point.
The current economic indicators closely mirror those from the 2000s, as reflected in measures such as Dollar strength, inflation, unemployment, and interest rates. In particular, the US 2Y-10Y spread indicates an inversion of the yield curve that surpasses even the extent seen during the 2000s. Simultaneously, the other indicators nearly align with their respective levels from that period.
This begs the question: What has been propelling the Nasdaq higher? Could it be the hype surrounding AI and technology, or is it the liquidity in the market?
We posit that it's a combination of both factors, as the tech rally and increased reserve balance seem to coincide with the ratio’s upward movement. Although we don't foresee a tech bubble bursting as it did in the 2000s, there's undeniable enthusiasm for the Nasdaq. Given the current setup's striking resemblance to the 2000s, we can glean lessons from that period to position ourselves optimally.
One potential strategy could be to short the Nasdaq 100 Futures on CME outright at the current level of 15086, with the take profit at 13900 and a stop loss at 15600. Alternatively, investors expressing a bearish view on the Nasdaq 100 ratio could consider shorting 2 Nasdaq 100 Futures and going long on 3 S&P500 Futures.
In the second setup, the dollar value of the position is equal, as the contract value of the Nasdaq 100 Futures and the S&P500 Futures is approximately the same, at roughly 600,000 USD for the full-sized contract at the current price level for both index. The same setup can be replicated using the micro Nasdaq 100 and S&P500 futures at the same ratio, where the position value is now roughly 60,000 USD.
For each 1 point move in the standard size E-MINI S&P 500 Futures contract, the equivalent value is 50 USD and 5 USD for the Micro contract. Similarly, each 1 point move in the standard-sized E-MINI Nasdaq 100 Futures contract equates to 20 USD, and 2 USD for the micro contract.
Trading this spread could potentially benefit from a margin offset of up to 70%, meaning that the capital required to initiate this trade is significantly reduced. This setup could be particularly attractive for traders seeking to optimize their capital usage while gaining exposure to these major indices.
The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
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The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios. A full version of the disclaimer is available in our profile description.
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