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GBPUSD Analysis Monday Nov 18th Today's analysis for GBP/USD shows an overall bearish trend. I am looking to go short once the price hits the Sell-Side Imbalance Buy-Side Inefficiency (SIBI) Fair Value Gap (FVG) area. Additionally, there's a breaker block just around the FVG that reinforces this potential short entry. The resistance level at 1.2650, aligned with the 14-day EMA, is a key zone I'm watching closely. If the price reaches this level, it will provide an ideal entry point for a short position. Stop Loss: 1.2680 - Placed 30 pips above the entry point to protect against unexpected upward movement. Take Profit: 1.2590 - Positioned 60 pips below the entry point at a previous support level where price action may slow down or reverse. Risk-to-Reward Ratio: 1:2 NB. The dollar has been strong since the elections and hoping to continue for a while with the BOE uncertainties. Always keep an eye on upcoming economic events and market sentiment for any sudden changes. Happy trading!
Short
by hskarue
XAU/USD 18 November 2024 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis: -> Swing: Bearish. -> Internal: Bearish. Price Action Analysis: Analysis remains the same as analysis dated 12 November 2024. Price has printed both a bearish Internal Break of Structure (iBOS) and a subsequent bearish Break of Structure (BOS), confirming the need for a pullback across all higher timeframes (HTFs). Currently, price action remains in alignment with the broader pullback requirements. Intraday Expectation The expectation for the intraday session is that price will print a bullish Change of Character (CHoCH) to signify the initiation of a bullish pullback phase. The positioning of this bullish CHoCH is indicated by the blue dotted line on the chart. However, it is also possible that price could extend to a new low, bringing the CHoCH positioning much closer to the current price action, setting the stage for a potential bullish reversal signal. Note: Given the Federal Reserve’s dovish stance and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, heightened volatility in Gold prices is anticipated to persist. Traders should exercise caution and remain vigilant in this high-volatility environment. H4 Chart: M15 Analysis: -> Swing: Bearish. -> Internal: Bullish. Price Action Analysis: The prior intraday expectation was invalidated as price printed a bullish Internal Break of Structure (iBOS), signaling a shift in internal order flow. Following bullish iBOS, the next anticipated move is the printing of a bearish Change of Character (CHoCH), which would indicate the initiation of a bearish pullback phase. This CHoCH positioning is marked by a blue dotted line. Intraday Expectation: For today's session, we are looking for confirmation of a bearish pullback phase by price printing a bearish CHoCH. Bearish CHoCH positioning is marked with a blue dotted line Alternative Scenario: On the H4 timeframe, there are signs of a bullish pullback phase potentially developing, though there is no confirmation as of yet. In my view, the bullish momentum on the M15 timeframe is to assist the H4 timeframe in confirming its pullback phase. Note: With the Federal Reserve's dovish policy approach and rising geopolitical tensions, heightened volatility in Gold prices is expected to continue. Traders should remain cautious and prepared for potential whipsaws in price action. M15 Chart:
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Khan_YIK
Bitcoin - When will Bitcoin go to price correction?!Bitcoin is above the EMA50 and EMA200 on the daily timeframe and is trading in its ascending channel. Risk ON sentiment in the US stock market or investing in Bitcoin ETF funds will lead to its continued upward movement. We will look for bitcoin selling positions in the range of the channel ceiling (weekly). Capital withdrawals from Bitcoin ETFs or risk OF sentiment in the US stock market will pave the way for Bitcoin to decline. Bitcoin buying positions can be looked for in the two specified demand zones. It should be noted that there is a possibility of heavy fluctuations and shadows due to the movement of whales in the market and compliance with capital management in the cryptocurrency market will be more important. US Spot Bitcoin ETFs • Performance Last Week: • During the first three trading days, US spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced substantial capital inflows, starting with a $1.11 billion inflow on the first day. • However, in the last two trading days, the ETFs faced capital outflows of $400 million and $370 million, respectively. • Weekly Summary: Overall, the ETFs recorded a net capital inflow of $1.67 billion for the week, marking a positive performance. Crypto Market Liquidations • Coinglass Data: • Over the past 24 hours, due to market volatility, more than 101,000 traders were liquidated, resulting in a total liquidation value of $231 million. • This significant figure highlights the impact of recent market fluctuations on crypto traders. Credit Agricole’s Analysis of the US Dollar • Future of the Dollar: • Unlike the 2018 rally driven by Trump-era policies, Credit Agricole argues that 2025 will not see a repeat of the same trend. • Reasons: • Current economic conditions differ significantly from 2018. • Monetary policies and the dollar’s current strength indicate that the dynamics driving the dollar’s movements have shifted. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. on Bitcoin • Bitcoin as the “Currency of Freedom”: • Robert F. Kennedy Jr., former Secretary of Health under Trump, described Bitcoin as a tool for protecting the middle class from inflation and a solution to counter the devaluation of the dollar. • He also highlighted Bitcoin’s potential role in addressing America’s crippling national debt, emphasizing its importance in the country’s economic future. Declining Correlation Between Bitcoin and Gold • The correlation between Bitcoin and gold has dropped to its lowest point in 11 months. • James Stanley, Chief Market Strategist at Forex.com: • Gold has recently reached an overbought status, and its price correction is reasonable. • Investor Focus on Bitcoin: As Bitcoin approaches the $100,000 threshold, gold may regain investor appeal, especially near critical support levels.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Ali_PSND
3
11/18 Third pump week or correction? Week's overviewOverview : The post-election optimism is palpable, with markets expecting a business-oriented administration focused on cutting spending and reinvesting in the domestic economy. This sentiment aligns with key developments across markets: Yields and Rate Cuts: Treasury yields are stalling, signaling a potential reversal following the Fed’s 75 basis point rate cut. If yields resume climbing, it could suggest market skepticism toward further cuts, hinting at expectations of stable or tighter conditions ahead. Dollar Index and Macro Environment: The rising dollar index reflects the upward pressure on rates but also hints at a weakening macro environment in Europe since the index is calculated against the euro. Gold's Decline: Gold has slid for two consecutive weeks, correcting 7% from its recent high. This drop could indicate stronger economic conditions boosting risk-on sentiment, or tighter monetary policy driving risk-off pressure. A stronger dollar further pressures gold downward, while a weaker dollar typically provides support. CPI and Job Market:The Fed reported a year-over-year CPI increase to 2.6%, in line with expectations but up from 2.4% in the previous month. This marks the first uptick since April 2024. Meanwhile, unemployment has dropped for three straight months, now at 4.1%, below pre-pandemic levels. CME Tool Insights:The CME tool indicates a 38.1% chance of no rate cut at the December 18th meeting. This aligns with a strong labor market and recent comments by Jerome Powell stating, “The economy is not sending any signals that we need to be in a hurry to lower rates.” Institutional Bitcoin Investments:Institutional investors ramped up Bitcoin ETF purchases for the second week post-election. Despite retail-oriented funds like Fidelity and ARK selling on Thursday and Friday, BlackRock’s buying continued to dominate. Last week also marked the highest Ethereum ETF buying activity to date. Market Indices: SP:SPX retraced to its 0.68 Fibonacci level after the election, setting up for a potential climb higher. NASDAQ:QQQ mirrored the SP500, maintaining its retracement pattern. BTC TA : W : The past two weeks produced strong vector candles with rising volume, though still below the peaks of February-March 2024 and the bull runs of 2017 and 2021. While a correction is overdue, BTC may stay range-bound briefly or push toward the psychological $100k level as early as this week. D : Bitcoin is in a parabolic phase, with no divergences or clear technical patterns—simply pumping higher. 4h : A small MACD divergence cleared over the weekend, and RSI normalized from overbought levels. Notable bullish CVD absorption occurred midweek, where selling pressure formed lower lows on the indicator, but buying pressure resulted in higher lows in price. 1h : No divergences detected, and BTC remains on track toward $100k. Alts Relative to BTC : The only altcoin keeping pace with Bitcoin is Solana, bolstered by its ecosystem of memecoins. However, unexpected contenders like XRP and ADA have entered the spotlight, pumping unexpectedly last week. Who’s behind this? It’s unlikely the DeFi crowd. Could it be that, six years later, people have forgotten Ripple’s controversies and Cardano’s slow progress? Bull Case : This is just the beginning of a major 2025 crypto cycle. With regulatory hurdles and quantitative tightening behind us, the path forward is clear for a prolonged bull market. Bear Case : With Bitcoin at all-time highs, this could mark the peak and final leg of the 2024 crypto bull run. Fear and Greed Index : At 83, we’re deep into extreme greed territory—a classic danger zone. Historically, extreme greed rarely ends well, and this is an official selling zone for a prudent investor. But you aren't one of them, are you?
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by EvgenCapital
NAS100 - Nasdaq will reach above 21,000?!The index is located between EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is trading in its ascending channel. If the index rises towards the two specified supply zones, you can look for NASDAQ sell positions with the appropriate risk reward. Nasdaq's buying position is in the demand zone after the continuation of the corrective movement, and considering the downward sentiment at the end of the week, it should be saved quickly. China’s Export Restrictions and Their Impact on Global Supply Chains • China Tightens Export Controls: Starting December 1, China will implement new regulations to tighten export restrictions on critical metals and raw materials, including tungsten, graphite, magnesium, and aluminum alloys, essential for the technology sector. • China’s Objectives: These measures are part of a broader strategy to manage sensitive exports and protect national interests. • Global Market Impact: The new restrictions are expected to disrupt global technology supply chains and introduce volatility in related markets. Zelensky’s Perspective on Trump’s Presidency • Zelensky’s Comments: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that the war in Ukraine could end sooner if Donald Trump returns to the White House. • Constructive Interaction with Trump: Zelensky emphasized that Ukraine successfully communicated its vision for peace to Trump, and he observed no opposition from Trump regarding Ukraine’s stance. • Implications of Zelensky’s Remarks: These comments reflect Ukraine’s hope for continued international support to expedite the resolution of the conflict. US Economic Forecasts • Q3 Earnings Reports from Major Companies: This week, companies such as NVIDIA and TARGET will release their third-quarter (Q3) earnings reports. • Federal Reserve Rate Cuts: Rick Rieder, Chief Investment Officer at BlackRock, predicts that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December. • The current Federal Funds rate range is 4.5% to 4.75%, which Rieder considers restrictive. • Following the December cut, the Fed is expected to pause temporarily to reassess future adjustments. Jerome Powell’s Statements and Market Reactions • Powell on a Strong US Economy: Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell highlighted the robust performance of the US economy, stating there is no urgency to lower interest rates. • Cautious Approach to Rate Cuts: Powell stressed that decisions should be made carefully due to uncertainties surrounding the neutral rate level. • Market Reaction: These statements reduced market expectations for a rate cut in December.
CAPITALCOM:US100Short
by Ali_PSND
Divergence...one of the only clues you need...NZDUSD EXAMPLEHello hello hello TradingView community! Hope you are all having an amazing day so far getting ready for the fantastic trading week ahead. I saved something special for you guys this week with a more educational videos on one of my favorite confluences/tools I like to use in the market for my analysis and trading and that is the concept of Divergence. This is something I personally use in my analysis and trading that has helped me tremendously find and enhance the opportunities I identify in the markets and wanted to go ahead and share with this awesome community! So sit back, take some notes, and hope you all get some great nuggets from this video! Cheers!
Education
by JosePips
WIFUSDT.P / SHORT / M15WIFUSDT.P may fall from the bearish order block! Bearish Order Block :- 3.9697 and 3.9398 WIFUSDT.P is currently reacting to a bearish order block identified between 3.9697 and 3.9398, a zone known for institutional activity. The price has touched this critical area and is now showing signs of rejection, potentially setting the stage for a downward move. Detailed Analysis: Smart Money Concepts (SMC) have been applied to identify this valid bearish order block. These concepts track institutional footprints, allowing us to trade alongside the "big boys" in the market. The order block represents an area of significant supply, where institutions could be placing sell orders, leading to a potential reversal. After touching the order block, the price is starting to bounce back, confirming the presence of selling pressure. Expectations: If the bearish momentum continues, there is a high probability that the price will decline further. This setup has been carefully analyzed, leveraging SMC's high win rate to forecast potential market movements. While no trade is guaranteed, the alignment of multiple confluences increases the likelihood of a profitable outcome. Conclusion: This idea emphasizes trading with institutional patterns rather than retail behavior. Let’s monitor the price action closely and see how it develops. A profitable trade is within reach if the market follows this rejection setup. WIFUSDT.P / SHORT / M15 LEVERAGE :- 50X Entry Price :- 3.8465 Take Profit :- 3.6278 Stop Loss :- 4.0776
Short
by PraveenTrader1
5
XAU/USD 18-22 November 2024 Weekly AnalysisWeekly Analysis: Swing Structure -> Bullish. Internal Structure -> Bullish. Price Action Analysis: In my analysis dated 27 October 2024, it was noted that the first sign of a pullback would be a bearish Change of Character (CHoCH), indicated by a blue dotted line. Price's consistent upward momentum had positioned this CHoCH much closer to recent price levels as expected for weeks. Now, for the first time since 23 November 2020, price has printed a bearish CHoCH. We are currently trading within a defined internal range. Price is projected to move downward toward either the discount of the internal 50% Equilibrium (EQ), highlighted in blue, or the Weekly demand zone before targeting the weak internal high. Note: Given the Federal Reserve's dovish policy stance alongside heightened geopolitical risks, market volatility is likely to remain elevated, influencing intraday price swings. Weekly Chart: Daily Analysis: -> Swing -> Bullish. -> Internal -> Bullish. Price Action Analysis: In my weekly analysis dated 27 October 2024, I forecasted that price could potentially make new highs, thereby shifting the bearish Change of Character (CHoCH) closer to recent price action. This repositioning would serve as a trigger for a bearish pullback phase initiation. As anticipated, this scenario unfolded with CHoCH shifting nearer to the current price and ultimately printing a bearish CHoCH. Currently, price is trading within an established internal range (highlighted in blue), trading in the discount zone of the internal 50% Equilibrium (EQ) and approaching a Daily demand zone, where a reaction is likely. Given the current internal range dynamics, price is expected to react upon reaching the Daily demand zone and could trade upward to target the daily internal high. However, considering the signs of a pullback phase on the Weekly timeframe, there remains a possibility of price printing a bearish Internal Break of Structure (iBOS). Note: With the Fed maintaining a dovish policy stance and the continued rise in geopolitical tensions, we should anticipate elevated market volatility, which may impact both intraday and longer-term price action. Daily Chart: H4 Analysis: -> Swing -> Bearish. -> Internal -> Bearish. Price Action Analysis: Analysis remains the same as previous bias from my analysis dated 12 November 2024. Price has printed both a bearish Internal Break of Structure (iBOS) and a subsequent bearish Break of Structure (BOS), confirming the need for a pullback across all higher timeframes (HTFs). Currently, price action remains in alignment with the broader HTF pullback requirements. Intraday Expectation: The expectation for the intraday session is that price will print a bullish Change of Character (CHoCH) to indicate the initiation of a bullish pullback phase. The positioning of this bullish CHoCH is indicated by the blue dotted line on the chart. However, it is also possible that price could extend to a new low, bringing the CHoCH positioning much closer to the current price action. Note: Given the Federal Reserve’s dovish stance and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, heightened volatility in Gold prices is anticipated to persist. We should exercise caution and remain vigilant in this high-volatility environment. H4 Chart:
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Khan_YIK
DXY. When to Expect a Weak Dollar?Hello traders and investors! At the end of September and the beginning of October, I analyzed AUDUSD and EURUSD, where the technical picture predicted a decline in these currencies against the dollar. You can find these posts in related ideas. There were discussions with colleagues about how many countries' economies need a weaker dollar. I wouldn’t mind profiting from a dollar decline either, but a month and a half ago, there were no signs of a DXY drop. Let's take a look at what the chart suggests and when this might happen. Weekly Timeframe A sideways range formed on the weekly chart in March 2023 (point 4 was established). The lower boundary is 99.099, and the upper boundary is 106.952. The buyer's vector 11-12 has reached its obligatory target — the price level of point 10 within the range (106.169). This means we can start watching for seller activity on the weekly timeframe. If the sellers show up, the seller's vector 12-13 becomes relevant, with potential targets of 99.807 and 99.099. Note that the key bar (with the highest volume) of the buyer’s vector 11-12 is the bar from November 4. Daily Timeframe There’s a long trend on the daily chart. The last buyer's impulse ranges from 103.86 to 106.734. The key bar of the impulse (highest volume) is the bar from November 14. Hourly Timeframe On the hourly chart, a sideways range has formed. The lower boundary is 106.037, and the upper boundary is 106.734. The current buyer's vector 8-9 has potential targets of 106.681 and 106.734. From there, it's not far to 106.952 (the upper boundary of the weekly range). Summary The price has approached levels on the weekly TF where a reversal may begin. For now, there are no signs of a reversal on the weekly and daily TF. We need to see signs of seller activity on the weekly chart to look for short positions with the goal of realizing the seller's vector 12-13 in the weekly range. You can look for long or short positions on the hourly chart by trading within the range from boundary to boundary (if the boundary holds). Until the DXY reverses, looking for long positions in other currencies against the dollar is risky. Good luck with your trading and investments!
CAPITALCOM:DXY
by AlexeyWolf