Multiple Time Frame Analysis
Weekly XAUUSD analysis, 16 - 20 Dece 2024.Daily TF:
Price swept the LQ from both sides.
-We don't know if the price will continue the swing bearish OF or shift bullish.
Confirmations come from LTF
4H TF:
4H and daily Demand zone + Feb Golden zone.
-Firm area to BUY from.
Confirmation comes from LTF.
15M TF:
- The INT structure is bearish but could shift to confirm the expected bullish move and the 15M swing pullback phase at least.
-This high is strong but we expect it to fail.
Until now 15M swing structure has been bearish If you wanna short from here, wait INT structure
shift first.
LONG TERM TRADE BREAKDOWN USING ONLY TECHNICALS...EURUSD EXAMPLEHey everyone! Hope you are all having an amazing weekend so far! I just wanted to come on here and make a post on a potential longer term outlook I have on the EURUSD currency pair using ONLY technical analysis and some confluence I am seeing technically on this pair. So let's dive in!
OK so to start we want to actually look back to the past. A lot of the time when we are looking to take a trade for a "future" move we have to look back at the "past" as well. Because you guys have probably heard the saying that "history repeats itself" and that is absolutely true when it comes to the financial markets and historical, significant levels of price.
Quick side note: PAST LEVELS OF PRICE ARE REALLY PSYCHOLOGICAL ZONES. WHAT DO I MEAN? Well if you look at price when it returns to previous areas of buying or selling; whether you call that demand/support or supply/resistance these levels are displaying to us that SOME BIGGER PLAYERS; or players in general; had a INTEREST to buy or sell at that zone whatever the reason may be. Which if you break that down means they have a MEMORY of that zone and MAY WANT THAT PRICE AGAIN in the future. If they still like the deal. THAT is why it is psychological. Okay moving on...
So when looking at this chart we can see back starting in October of 2022 we saw an upward move in the market happen that took prices from multi-decade lows around 0.9500-0.9700 area to highs around the 1.1300 price zone. This is a LARGE move in the markets and represents a macro move in the EUR vs the US DOLLAR.
We can see that back in August of 2024 (current year) that prices came up to test those 1.1300 highs that were formed in July of 2023 but ultimately FAILED to break higher leading to now months of downward movement and weakening of the EUR vs the US DOLLAR.
SO what to take away from all that? WELL on a macro level I am seeing that price wasn't ready to make new highs...so that means 1 of 2 things:
1. There wasn't enough buyers to break the previous highs
2. It wasn't the right deal for price for the bigger players to buy up enough to push it past those July of 2023 highs
SO what that is now leading me to believe based on the technical here and what they are displaying is that we can now see prices come back down to a weekly demand (psychological) zone that was formed back in June/July of 2022 when that original large move happened, and SEE IF THAT IS THE DEAL that buyers on a macro level want to send prices ultimately higher on a macro perspective...even higher than the July of 2023 highs.
Technically we can see that obviously there is a level of significant demand/support. We also have a fib alignment in that zone of the 78.6% retracement level (80% DISCOUNT!) ANDDDD we have a potential equal measured move aligning with multi-year supply up at the 1.17500-1.1800 price handle...oh and did I mention the -0.27% fib extension lines up with it also? Some nice CONFLUENCE with that as well
OKAY guys I know this was a long breakdown but this is a longer term perspective and wanted to appropriately break this analysis down for you guys so for all the longer term outlook traders/investors this is the level (if it comes back down to) to keep an eye on!
Hope you all enjoyed please boost this post and follow my page if you enjoyed this analysis and would like to see more accurate analysis and potential trade ideas. Cheers! Merry Christmas!
Ready for upsideThe stock appears to be in a pullback phase. I anticipate it will find support around the previous monthly highs, keeping prices contained between that level and the anchored VWAP (Volume-Weighted Average Price) from the recent swing high. Once the price advances back up toward this anchored VWAP and experiences a slight pullback, the key will be to break through it. If the stock establishes a pattern of higher highs and higher lows on the 30-minute chart, it would strengthen the bullish outlook.
Dollar back to levels of 107.969 since 2022!!!Admittedly, last weeks prediction of the dollar for me was that I expected it to finally push down, However price action then clearly showed me otherwise by showing its clear intent to move further to the upside and refusal to break structure to the downside which I had tried to anticipate . Although price hasn't taken the last significant high that created the 1h supply we have seen CHOCH and BOS to the upside on the 1H time frame suggesting that price wants to push up further.
This is validated by the pairs against the dollar wanting to push down and the fact that there is not only liquidity in the form of Asian highs but a large weekly imbalance and weekly supply zone where I predict price will push up to before finally returning to it's usual bearish trend.
I can expect price to react from the 13min order block after the new Monday ASL is taken. If not we may see price pushing lower slightly simply in order to grab liquidity and find the correct zone to react from, potentially the 3H HTF demand I have marked out in order to push up. This also aligns with my pairs against the dollar that will push up and then come down.
XAU/USD 16-20 December 2024 Weekly AnalysisWeekly Analysis:
Swing Structure -> Bullish.
Internal Structure -> Bullish.
Analysis/Bias remains the same as analysis dated 01 December 2024.
Price Action Analysis:
In my analysis dated 27 October 2024, it was noted that the first sign of a pullback would be a bearish Change of Character (CHoCH), indicated by a blue dotted line. Price's consistent upward momentum had positioned this CHoCH much closer to recent price levels as expected for weeks.
Now, for the first time since 23 November 2020, price has printed a bearish CHoCH. We are currently trading within a defined internal range.
Price is anticipated to trade down towards either the discount of the internal 50% Equilibrium (EQ), highlighted in blue, or the Weekly demand zone before targeting the weak internal high.
Note:
It is highly unlikely price will "crash" as many analysts are predicting. My view is this is merely a corrective wave of the primary trend.
Given the Federal Reserve's dovish policy stance alongside heightened geopolitical risks, market volatility is likely to remain elevated, influencing intraday price swings.
Weekly Chart:
Daily Analysis:
-> Swing -> Bullish.
-> Internal -> Bullish.
Analysis/Bias remains the same as analysis dated 01 December 2024
Price Action Analysis:
Price has shown a reaction from discount of internal 50% EQ. Currently price has been unable to target the weak internal high
Given the current internal range dynamics, price is expected to target weak internal high, priced at 2,790.170 However, considering the signs of a pullback phase on the Weekly timeframe, there remains a possibility of price printing a bearish Internal Break of Structure (iBOS). Price has yet to tap into Daily demand.
Note:
With the Fed maintaining a dovish policy stance and the continued rise in geopolitical tensions, we should anticipate elevated market volatility, which may impact both intraday and longer-term price action.
Daily Chart:
H4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bearish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Price is clearly unable to target weak internal. This is due to the fact that Daily and Weekly Timeframe remain in bearish pullback phase.
Price Action Analysis:
Technically price is to target weak internal priced at 2,721.420. Price has sweeped liquidity,
for two possible reasons.
1. To assist price to complete bearish pullback phase, react at either discount of internal 50% or H4 demand zone before targeting weak internal high.
2. To assist Daily and H4 TF's to complete bearish pullback phase with price to print a bearish iBOS and target strong internal low priced at 2,536.855.
Intraday Expectation:
Intraday expectation and alternative scenario as per points 1 and 2.
Note:
With the Federal Reserve's dovish stance and persisting geopolitical uncertainties, heightened volatility in Gold is expected to continue. Traders should proceed with caution and adjust risk management strategies in this high-volatility environment.
H4 Chart:
EUR/USD shorts to take key levels of liquidity belowI am expecting EUR/USD shorts this week as the Euro tends to align with the pound. overall from my HTF analysis the euro is bearish but we can expect price to retrace in order to further push down.
However, this week we see one of two options, price either pushing up to take the ASH created from market open before continuing in the downtrend from the 45min supply.
The second option price will push up to the 4h supply, validating the 2h demand that lays below ensuring price pushes up which will be it's HTF retracement before price overall comes to the downside.
we will see how price plays out this week from market open and its intentions will become slightly clearer on Monday and we will then better understand if price is ready to make its retracement or price wishes to continue down further.
Sell, Sell, Sell GBP/USD from 1.26341Using both HTF and LTF analysis and comparing this to the Dollar we can see that the pound will drop this week.
From market open we can expect price to either take the ASH tapping into the 4H supply and continue in the downtrend from last week taking the ASL and further breaking structure to the downside.
However, there is also an ASH above so it is possible price may push up slightly in order to grab liquidity and continue pushing down. With the extreme bearish euphoric price movement price may have already taken enough liquidity in order to respect the ASH and just move to the downside with no point of entry.
Regardless of the way price decides to move when the markets open and asian session is in play, I expect price to push down as we have seen a heavy downtrend.
Reliance - A Reversal from bottom? Reliance fell 2.95 % and made a bearish pattern on the weekly chart. Week’s OHLC were 1303, 1315, 1239 and 1272. On Friday, it rose sharply from week’s low to close near day’s high. I dived deeper into Reliance's whole week performance on multiple timeframes to see whether Friday's rise had any signs of bottom formation or reversal.
On Monday 9 December 2024, Reliance took rejection from 100 dema on the 5 minutes chart placed at 1315. It closed the day at 1295, down 1.25%. On Tuesday it fell another 0.80%. On Wednesday, it tried to go past the 100 dema, then placed at 1290, in the opening hour but did not succeed. Later in the day, it made another attempt but this time took a rejection from the moving average then placed at 1288. It closed the day at 1279 (-0.52%). On Thursday, it kept trading below the short term moving averages and fell 1.20% on the day. On Friday, after falling 1.22% in the opening hour, the stock made a doji in the second hour with the low at 1239. In the third hour it rose sharply. At 12:15 pm, the stock gave a breakout above the 100 dema on the 5 minutes chart placed at 1258. Later it took support from the moving average and closed at 1272, above the midpoint of the bollinger band on the 5 minutes chart placed at 1267. The 100 and 200 dema are now at 1264 and 1268 respectively and could act as support. The stock is a clear breakout on the 5 minutes chart.
On the 15 minutes chart, the 100 and 200 dema are placed at 1273 and 1283 respectively. So a breakout is pending on the 15 minutes chart.
I already described how the stock behaved on the hourly chart, where it made a doji at day’s low and rose sharply to close near day’s high. It is clearly visible on the hourly chart that the stock made a double top formation below the resistance of 1330 on 5 December 2024. It fell more than 6% from the top.
On the daily chart, the stock made a bullish candle and also a higher low. It is making a double bottom formation. It made a low of 1217 on 21 November 2024. Friday’s high and low were 1275 and 1239 respectively. It closed at 1272 with a gain of 0.79%. Once the stock closes above 1275, it will be a breakout on the daily chart. The resistance for the stock is placed at 1290/1315/1325/1370/1430. Whereas the stock should find support at 1260/1250. A close below 1250 could take the stock to 1200 levels.
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XTIUSD BEARISH OPPORTUNITYHello Everyone!
How are you all?
XtiUsd is an instrument to watch this week, because it is shaping up very nicely for a bearish trend continuation that we can capitalize on.
So, I will be looking for a short continuation because of the following reasons:
1. The overall trend is bearish
2. The price has formed a continuation structure.
3. The price is approaching the value area.
Game Plan:
If the price comes to the VA, and rejects at that level or sweeps the High, and makes a bearish impulse followed by a 15mins flag with two highs and lows.
Entry : will look for a risk short entry within the flag or a reduced risk entry on the breakout of the flag.
GBPCAD BULLISH CONTINUATION OPPORTUNITYHello Everyone!
How are you all?
GbpCad is a pair to watch this week, because it is shaping up very nicely for a bullish trend continuation that we can capitalize on.
So, I will be looking for a bullish continuation because of the following reasons:
1. The overall trend is bullish
2. The price is retracing the value area.
Game Plan:
If the price comes to the VA, and rejects at that level or sweeps the Low, and makes a bullish impulse followed by a 15mins flag with two highs and lows.
Entry : will look for a risk entry within the flag or a reduced risk entry on the breakout of the flag.