Moderna's Surprising Profit Signals Post-Pandemic PivotModerna ( NASDAQ:MRNA ), the pioneering vaccine maker, reported a surprise fourth-quarter profit, sending ripples of optimism through the market. Bolstered by unexpected revenue and strategic cost-cutting measures, the company's resilience amid shifting tides in the pharmaceutical landscape has drawn both attention and applause.
Unveiling the Numbers:
Moderna's ( NASDAQ:MRNA ) fourth-quarter profit stood at a commendable $217 million, or 55 cents a share, defying analyst expectations of a substantial loss. This unexpected triumph was fueled by a combination of factors, including unforeseen deferred revenue and a strategic overhaul in manufacturing operations. The company's ability to navigate challenges and adapt swiftly underscores its agility and forward-thinking approach.
Navigating the COVID-19 Landscape:
While Moderna's COVID-19 vaccine continues to be its flagship product, generating substantial revenue, the company is strategically diversifying its portfolio. Despite a decline in COVID vaccine sales from 2022 to 2023, Moderna ( NASDAQ:MRNA ) remains steadfast in its commitment to innovation. The imminent approval decision for its respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) shot marks a significant milestone in this diversification strategy, offering a glimpse into the company's post-pandemic roadmap.
Looking Beyond COVID:
Moderna's ( NASDAQ:MRNA ) ambitious roadmap extends far beyond the realm of COVID-19. With plans to launch its RSV shot in key markets and a robust pipeline of experimental shots targeting influenza, cancer, and cytomegalovirus, the company is poised for a transformative journey. Despite concerns over efficacy declines compared to rival offerings, Moderna's ( NASDAQ:MRNA ) unwavering focus on research and development signals a bold leap into uncharted territories.
International Endeavors:
Moderna's ( NASDAQ:MRNA ) participation in the EU Health Emergency and Response Authority’s tendering procedure underscores its commitment to global health initiatives. By prioritizing key international markets and aligning with strategic partners, the company aims to broaden its reach and impact. The forthcoming decision on the EU tender is poised to shape the company's trajectory in the global arena, setting the stage for future collaborations and expansions.
Charting the Course Ahead:
As Moderna ( NASDAQ:MRNA ) reaffirms its 2024 forecast amidst shifting market dynamics, the company remains steadfast in its pursuit of excellence. With a projected $4 billion in sales and a focus on operational execution, Moderna ( NASDAQ:MRNA ) is poised to navigate challenges and seize opportunities in the years ahead.
Conclusion:
Moderna's ( NASDAQ:MRNA ) unexpected profit surge and strategic roadmap offer a compelling narrative of resilience and innovation in a rapidly evolving landscape. With eyes set on new horizons and a steadfast resolve, Moderna ( NASDAQ:MRNA ) emerges as a beacon of hope in the post-pandemic world.
MRNA
Moderna's Road to Recovery
Moderna has recently garnered attention for its significant rebound after a challenging 2023. The biotech company, primarily known for its groundbreaking COVID-19 vaccine, is poised for a transformative journey ahead, with a strategic pipeline that extends far beyond pandemic management. This Idea delves into the recent surge in Moderna's stock, the pivotal role of Oppenheimer's upgrade, and the promising prospects that lie ahead.
The Resilience of Moderna Stock:
Following a tumultuous year in 2023, marked by a 45% dip in stock value, Moderna is experiencing a remarkable resurgence. A recent 15% surge was triggered by Oppenheimer's optimistic upgrade to "outperform." The upgrade reflects the financial firm's confidence in Moderna's ability to diversify its product portfolio, projecting the introduction of five new products by 2026. This shift in sentiment underscores the market's recognition of Moderna's potential to pivot beyond its flagship COVID-19 vaccine.
Diversification Beyond COVID-19:
Moderna's dependency on COVID-19 vaccine sales took a toll in 2023, prompting the need for diversification. Oppenheimer analyst Hartaj Singh highlights Moderna's promising pipeline, suggesting the potential launch of several products over the next 12 to 18 months. Among these, an experimental vaccine targeting respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) for older adults stands out, with a potential FDA decision in April 2024. The company's experimental flu vaccine, displaying superior immune response in trials, could also secure approval in 2024 or 2025. Additionally, the prospect of an FDA approval for an experimental personalized cancer vaccine further enhances Moderna's growth potential.
Financial Outlook and Market Response:
Despite a projected dip in COVID-19 vaccine sales in 2024 due to factors like vaccine fatigue, Moderna's overall sales are expected to surge in 2025 and beyond. The company's third-quarter earnings report anticipates revenue to rebound to $4 billion in 2025 after a temporary decline to $4 billion in 2024. Moderna's commitment to launching up to 15 products in the next five years aligns with its goal to diversify revenue streams and minimize reliance on pandemic-related products.
Technical Analysis and Investor Sentiment:
A crucial aspect of Moderna's recent success lies in its positive technical analysis. Breaking the ceiling of the falling trend in the medium-long term signifies a slower rate of decline. While the stock has met the short-term objective at $86.84, the technical indicators suggest cautious optimism. With support at $70.00 and resistance at $118, the stock appears well-positioned for potential growth.
Conclusion
Moderna's stock journey reflects a company resilient in the face of challenges, capitalizing on opportunities beyond the pandemic. Oppenheimer's upgrade and the positive technical analysis signal a turning point for Moderna, with a diversified product portfolio offering a hedge against future uncertainties. As the pharmaceutical giant marches towards its goal of launching innovative products, investors are increasingly viewing Moderna as more than just a COVID-19 play, but a promising player in the broader healthcare landscape.
MRNA Looks ready to roll overModerna has had an astronomical rise due to the vaccine. The technical setup looks excellent to the short side. TD9's on the daily, 2 day, 3 day, big divergences on many timeframes. That said - there is headline risk with this - if they get FDA approval it would likely squeeze.
Moderna’s Stock Boosted by Data From Trial of Melanoma TreatmentModerna Inc.’s stock soared 14% early Thursday to early Friday after the biotech company and partner Merck & Co. announced positive data from a trial of Moderna’s mRNA-4157 in combination with Merck’s blockbuster cancer drug Keytruda in patients with resected high-risk melanoma (stage III/IV).
The companies said that after about three years, the combination reduced the risk of recurrence or death by 49% in a Phase 2 trial and the risk of distant metastasis or death by 62%, as compared with Keytruda alone.
“As we continue to follow participants in the Keynote-942/mRNA-4157-P201 study, we are excited to see such a robust clinical benefit with mRNA-4157 (V940) as adjuvant treatment in combination with Keytruda in people with resected high-risk melanoma,” said Kyle Holen, senior vice president and head of development in therapeutics and oncology at Moderna.
“These data add another positive analysis to the multiple endpoints and subgroups previously assessed in this study,” he said.
Technical Analysis
NASDAQ:MRNA reached its 1 Month High on the 14th December, 2023 siting the stocks responds to the Positive Data from the Trial of Melanoma Treatment.
Moderna’s stock has fallen 50% to date in 2023, while the S&P 500 has gained 22.6%.
Although NASDAQ:MRNA is trading near the bottom of its 52-week range and below its 200-day simple moving average, the stock is likewise showing signs of a continual trend which is poise to set foot on a new Resistance level.
Moderna Break of Major Support, Short PotentialThis is a Technical Analysis on Moderna (MRNA) on the 1 Week Timeframe.
Current price action shows that we are currently in the process of breaking a MAJOR SUPPORT Zone.
We held critical SUPPORT multiple times ABOVE the $115.00 level, for a span of about 26 months. Expressed by the GREEN circles. But notice we havent been able to successfully rally and stay above the "MAJOR RESISTANCE" line.
Though the CURRENT candle has not yet closed, which it will end of trading session Monday, the 7th of August.
This in my opinion is a critical development. If we CONFIRM below this $115 ish area, the lower range of about $82.00 of the ORANGE zone becomes more likely.
The ORANGE zone, or price range between $115 and $82 has barely any market structure or in other words barely any candles. It would be easy for price to fall stright down, in my opinion.
This can be an area to take a SHORT position.
Another thing to notice since the BLOW of top, we have been forming a DESCENDING TRIANGLE. Its been forming since August 2021, this is NO JOKE. Measuring the target of the end point of descending triangle we get about a 75% drop target. Just remember it doesnt have to play out exactly but its something to consider and keep in the back of the mind.
So just to mention:
1st Target = $82 ish area
2nd Target = $57- $47 range
Last Target = Descending triangle measured target of $29 ( *Less likely for the time being)
RSI has been:
1. printing Lower Highs
2. is currently below the Black Moving average, which i use as an indication of price moving down
3.Is currently in process of ALL TIME RSI LOW, provided we close this weeks candle at current RSI lvl.
STOCH RSI -> Setting up for a BEARish cross. This if it occurs and we are below the MAJOR SUPPORT, bearish momentum can push price down.
Lastly ADX & DI -> We have RED line cross above Green and pointing up. We need to observe this, this indicates also the BEARISH momentum is coming in. If the BLACK moving average curves up and starts moving towards the RED/GREEN line with RED being on top, this will indicate bearish momentum.
CONCLUSION:
We are at major cross roads for MRNA. If we don't have any buying occur during Mondays trading session, and we close below MAJOR SUPPORT, it may be time to SHORT MRNA. We have not had any luck trying to break and stay above the "MAJOR RESISTANCE" line. This, along with multiple touches on MAJOR SUPPORT, has made this WEAK (in my opinion). Short targets include the primary, secondary and descending triangle target levels. Indicators are also shaping up to support the current price action. At times like this, it is important to observe further clues of bearish activity, to be patient and take it one step at a time.
Thank you for taking the time to read my analysis. Hope it helped keep you informed. Please do support my ideas by boosting, following me and commenting. Thanks again.
If you have any questions, do reach out. Thank you again.
DISCLAIMER: This is not financial advice, i am not a financial advisor. The thoughts expressed in the posts are my opinion and for educational purposes. When trading always spend majority of your time on risk management strategy.
Covid 2023 - Profiting from CorruptionHello everyone Josh here again. I’m sure by now you’ve already heard mumblings of Covid’s imminent return. We are seeing everything from colleges to hospitals start to implement Covid policies. The news cycle is starting to warn of a dangerous flu season/Covid return. Governments around the world are now updating their Covid policies and sleepy Joe’s White House is still pushing for the mass vaccination and experimentation on of human guinea pigs around the world.
With all this being said, it is my idea that we are about to go back into lockdown/full Covid policy mode. Although I wish this was not the case, I do intend to profit from it.
Illustrated is the Moderna chart, I use this, as it was one of the first assets I made money off of during the last pandemic, in fact, you can still go back and see my old idea on my page about Moderna when I called it at around sub $60. However, this could’ve been any chart from Amazon and Netflix to hospital sectors, to e-commerce platforms like Shopify. Basically, anything that will go up during a full-scale, pandemic/lockdown.
If my gut feeling is right, and we are going to go into a full-scale lock down, it might be one of the easiest plays of the century.
During the last pandemic, we saw airlines, cruise lines, casinos and resorts and a myriad of other sectors collapse to unprecedented lows. I expect something similar to happen this time around, to varying degrees of severity. Many people made millions by shorting assets last pandemic, I think we are setting ourselves up for the perfect storm to profit.
Look for stocks to long and short. Ignore the noise and make your money off of the lies of the global elite.
Below is an AI rendered breakdown of this idea.
Thank you so much for reading.
Please follow and like my ideas :)
Investment Thesis: Navigating Pandemic-Related Market Trends
I. Introduction:
The investment thesis centers around capitalizing on potential market shifts resulting from pandemic-related policies enacted by governments and corporations globally.
II. Market Outlook:
Anticipating the implementation of pandemic-related rules and regulations, which could include mask mandates, lockdowns, and travel restrictions.
III. Asset Allocation Strategy:
A. Long Positions:
E-commerce Dominance: As witnessed during the previous pandemic, e-commerce platforms like Amazon thrived. This trend is likely to persist as people turn to online shopping for convenience and safety.
Entertainment Streaming: Companies like Netflix benefited from increased demand for home entertainment. Expect this trend to continue, making streaming platforms potentially profitable investments.
Pharmaceutical Giants: Pfizer and Moderna played pivotal roles in vaccine development during the Covid pandemic. Their expertise positions them well for potential future vaccine requirements or pharmaceutical innovations.
Healthcare Stocks: Hospital and healthcare-related stocks may experience increased demand as health services remain crucial during pandemic periods.
B. Short Positions:
Travel and Hospitality Sectors: Historical data shows that airlines, cruise liners, resorts, and casinos experienced significant declines during the last pandemic due to travel restrictions and reduced consumer spending.
IV. Risk Considerations:
While historical patterns suggest certain sectors will benefit and others may decline during pandemics, unforeseen variables can impact market dynamics. Careful monitoring and adaptability are essential.
V. Diversification and Hedging:
To mitigate risks, consider diversifying your portfolio across industries and asset types. This approach helps balance potential losses from short positions with gains from long positions.
VI. Exit Strategy:
Regularly reassess the investment landscape, keeping an eye on shifts in policies, vaccination rates, and economic indicators. Be prepared to adjust your positions accordingly to optimize gains or minimize losses.
VII. Conclusion:
In light of potential pandemic-related policies, a strategic investment approach involves capitalizing on e-commerce, streaming, pharmaceutical, and healthcare sectors, while shorting travel and hospitality sectors. Prudent risk management, diversification, and a proactive exit strategy will be pivotal in navigating the ever-evolving market landscape.
Please note that investment decisions involve inherent risks, and it's advisable to consult with a qualified financial advisor before executing any investment strategy.
BNTX biotech / currency play LONGBNTX a Germany company in the biotechnology and vaccine sectors out of Europe
and Germany is looking good on the 2H chart here with a volume profile and an
intermediate term VWAP overlaid. Price bounced off the bottom of the high volume
area of the volume profile and looks to be ready for a reversion to the mean and even
a sling-short move. The target here is the double top M pattern of mid July at 114.
The VPT and MACD are confirmatory of a momentum flip making for a long trade
entry. I will review the options chain for a suitable options trade with a narrow bid/ask
spread, suitable volume and open interest. If I cannot find one I'll take a trade of
10-20 shares of stock with a stop-loss of 105 to back up this trade while NVAX and MRNA
are also making moves.
MRNA a medical Technology Stock LONG MRNA is a medical technology company. It is in the vaccine sector and competes ( well) with
NVAX and PFE among others. Earnings are upcoming on 8/3 in about a week.
On the 30 minute chart it appears to be in a descending wedge pattern which is typically
a bottoming with a breakout over and beyond the descending trendline. The relative
trend indicator shows the downtrend to be a slow grinding type trend with some minor
corrections along the way. As might be expected the RS lines are low in the indicator's
channel. I see this as a setup for a pre-earnings play with the expectation that MRNA
could breakout above the resistance trend line and move toward the horizontal resistance
of the triple top earlier in mid-July. I see medical stocks as a good alternative to technology
stocks that may be overextended and stressed by the current financial chaos pressuring
the markets. Another approach is a two call options targeting $ 125 expiring 8/11
and running the first until 100% profit or 8/2, the day before the expiration whichever
comes first and letting the other run through earnings into the middle of the following
week at 8/9. I always like to cut these short of expiration by a few days to diminish the
effects of time decay.
MRNA // Falling Wedge at DailyHello Folks,
We can see Falling Wedge pattern clearly at MRNA with RSI positive divergence.
I consider it important that this image is formed at a significant level of horizontal support.
As a condition to enter the position, it would be reasonable to wait for the formation of a new high.
Can NVAX rise again?NVAX has had significant down trending over a wide range of time. On the 4H chart it seems to
be pivoting from a swing bottom 3-4 days ago. This is accompanied by a cross of the MACD
lines under the histogram on that indicator and a flip of volatility on the relative volatility
indicator. NVAX has been subject to significant short selling. Price is presently nearly
two standard deviations below the mean anchored VWAP set in mid May. Basically it is in
deep undervalued oversold territory and now with a rise. The volume profile has a point of
control level considerably above the mean VWAP. This is the level with the highest volume
of trades showing most trades occurred well above VWAP. This would be traders taking
profit and selling or alternatively short sellers opening a position but more likely a combination
of them. Price wants to ascend to at least VWAP if not the POC line. My analysis is that
any significant rise could begin a squeeze on short positions. Those closing with a buy to
cover trade would in effect be synergizing new buyers and add to the bullish momentum,
Accordingly, I will open a position early and see if I can get in ahead of a potential
short squeeze. While speculative, a narrow stop loss at 6.80 the second band line below
the mean VWAP will take a lot of risk off the trade and allow me to be patient comfortably
watching the price action.
Profits Over Patients: The Morally Complex Realm of Big PharmaThis strategy dissects the dual nature of big pharmaceutical firms like Johnson & Johnson, Pfizer, Moderna, and Merck & Co viewed through base Fibonacci Extension Clustering. Despite big pharma's significant contributions to healthcare, these firms have benefited from questionable practices, including price manipulation and exploiting addictions . Price manipulation is a notorious strategy where companies arbitrarily hike drug prices, often without any significant improvements in their efficacy.
"Big Pharma" has faced backlash for allegedly contributing to the opioid crisis . By aggressively marketing highly addictive pain medications , they may have exacerbated a public health catastrophe, leading to thousands of deaths annually.
Such practices illuminate the immoral landscape of the pharmaceutical industry. While these firms play a vital role in global healthcare, their business tactics often prioritize profits over patients, demanding a closer scrutiny of this sector's ethics.
1. Johnson & Johnson (JNJ): Around $440 billion
2. Pfizer Inc. (PFE): Around $240 billion
3. Moderna Inc. (MRNA): Around $110 billion
4. Merck & Co., Inc. (MRK): Around $200 billion
TOTAL = 1 Trillion
MRNA Short with resistance at 145.50I plan a short trade ( NASDAQ:MRNA ) at 144.41. The entry is just before the resistance zone at ~145.50 which is also confirmed by the Fibonacci 0.5 level. At 146.69 is the stop loss placed so that there is enough space to breathe. The take profit is very conservatively placed at a risk-reward ratio of 1:1.
MRNA ? Buy Weakness MRNA descended this past winter off a head-and-shoulders pattern on the daily chart just under
the demand zone as shown by the LuxAlgo indicator. Price is now in a downtrend heading into
earnings tomorrow. MRNA needs to show something good otherwise it will break through the
demand zone and keep going down.
This is a risky earnings play betting that something will show up on the report to buoy up the
company and its stock. I will risk 0.01% of the trading account on a call option with DTE 5/19/23
looking for a minor surge and so a good quick profit.
( see also the link below)
VAXX Biotech Penny Stock Earnings Play VAXX is a speculative penny biotechnology NASDAQ stock with high volatility. On the 2H chart, it is currently trending up from a swing low
on April 25 with earnings to be reported Monday 5/8. May's relative volume compared with that of April is about 2-3X higher. To confirm
the bullish bias, VAXX is currently trading above its intermediate-term POC line on the volume profile. This confirms buyers as being in
control. Although this is speculative as are all biotechnology penny stocks, impending earnings as a catalyst has been considered.
Continued development in the vaccine subsector at large may suggest VAXX may have a favorable report to fuel further price action.
NVAX Biotechnology Watch Dead Cat Bounce LONGNVAX is fundamentally weak with a shallow pipeline and no products currenly marketed
to fund earnings and so research. On the 15 minute chart , NVAX is seen near to its
demand zone as shown by the Luxalgo indicator. In the meanwhile, the RSI indicator
shows considerable recent strength which is decreased today.
So the question is whether NVAX can dead cat bounce with a potential 20% uptrend
to reach the supply one or if it instead will break support and continue its descent
from a double top April 14-17. I will watch this for the price action to determine
whether to take a long trade or short sell this again. Other " vaccine stocks"
may be in action as well including VBIV, VCNX, VAXX and MRNA.
MRNA Bullish reversal might be MRNA has been in a bearish trend from quite a while but now it has started to move back up
Its following a very good resistance trend retest . The recent drop was due to bad news but it should be back on track soon
According to FIB after crossing 176 the bullish reversal will be confirmed
Entry @ 176
SL 170
TP after 202+
MRNA is going to dump now / where to buyMRNA is not looking too good.
What we can see is a weekly bearish engulfing candle after clear rejection from the upsloping resistance line. Rejection was nasty therefore we're seeing instant follow through.
You can short it now with a final target at the support which is the entry for longs too.
At the support, flip bullish and take a long position. The target is at the key resistance shown on the chart.
If you short now, pleace a stop loss at 219 - 220 $
Good luck
$MRNA: Time at Mode Trend signal fired$MRNA has bottomed recently, and has been trending logically in the daily timeframe, we have a 2nd signal forming here, continuing the uptrend that kicked off on March 13th.
Upside can be substantial given broad market action, so I suggest to get involved with the stock (and likely also $PFE soon) here.
Best of luck!
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.