Potential Topping Pattern in MicrosoftMicrosoft doubled between late 2022 and mid-2024, and now some traders may think the tech giant is done going up.
The first pattern on today’s chart is the series of higher highs between February and July, followed by successively lower highs. That rounded top could signal its longer-term momentum has stalled.
Second, the 50-, 100- and 200-day simple moving average (SMAs) have come together after being spread apart. That could also reflect a weakening of the longer-term uptrend.
Third, MSFT gapped downward on October 31 after forecasting slower growth in its Azure division. It rebounded feebly without recouping its losses. Did a bear-flag breakdown just take place?
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Moving Averages
$FLOKI Update - Up over 66% from last postWhat a nice 66% gain from last post and it's still showing bullish. It pushed up past 5 major resistance zones. If CB listing soon could push past the next few resistance zones to the next fib level above $3.10. Remember to have a plan before entering and stick with it.
Estee Lauder | EL | Long at $63.00On November 13th, 2024, the Director of Estee Lauder NYSE:EL purchased $10,000,000+ worth of shares. From a technical analysis perspective, this makes sense as it almost double entered my "crash" simple move average lines (indicated in gray). On the rare occasion the price double dips these areas, odds are typically in my favor a rally may be ahead (obviously, without unforeseen bad news from the company). While it still may dip into the "crash" simple moving average lines ( GETTEX:50S ), I believe the "Santa Claus" rally is around the corner and we may be close to a near-term bottom for $NYSE:EL. However, this is a very risky play due to the fundamentals of the company - which currently aren't good. But future prospects from NYSE:EL may change the momentum. Thus, at $63.00, NYSE:EL is in my personal buy zone.
Target #1 - $86.00
Target #2 - $100.00
Target #3 - $120.00
WORLD CURRENCY UNIT / U.S. DOLLARThe World Currency Unit (WCU) is an indexed unit of account that stands for a unit of real global purchasing power. Since each unit by design represents a stable unit of purchasing power, the stipulated interest rate on WCU-denominated bonds represents a real interest rate.
WCUUSD is another way to track the strength of the dollar index. With the setting of various MAs on the WCUUSD chart and in relation to the dollar index, we will notice that the trend and support of the moving averages are better positioned in relation to the same setting on the chart on the dollar index.
WCUUSD is best followed on a daily time frame, while the dollar index can be followed on a smaller time frame.
You might initially wonder why you are tracking WCUUSD when you are already tracking the dollar index chart. But you will very quickly realize how this chart is a very important indicator of the dollar's strength that can be useful for our trading with all USD pairs.
50 SMA Rising - Swing TradeDisclaimer: I am not a Sebi registered adviser.
This Idea is publish purely for educational purpose only before investing in any stocks please take advise from your financial adviser.
50 SMA Rising strategy. Suitable for Swing Trading Initial Stop loss lowest of last 2 candles and keep trailing with 30 days SMA if price close below 30 SMA then Exit or be in the trade for 2 to 4 weeks.
Target & Stop loss shown on Chart. Do not Forget to Exit if Stop loss Hit.
Be Discipline because discipline is the Key to Success in the STOCK Market.
50 SMA Rising - Swing TradeDisclaimer: I am not a Sebi registered adviser.
This Idea is publish purely for educational purpose only before investing in any stocks please take advise from your financial adviser.
50 SMA Rising strategy. Suitable for Swing Trading Initial Stop loss lowest of last 2 candles and keep trailing with 30 days SMA if price close below 30 SMA then Exit or be in the trade for 2 to 4 weeks.
Target & Stop loss shown on Chart. Do not Forget to Exit if Stop loss Hit.
Be Discipline because discipline is the Key to Success in the STOCK Market.
50 SMA Rising - Swing TradeDisclaimer: I am not a Sebi registered adviser.
This Idea is publish purely for educational purpose only before investing in any stocks please take advise from your financial adviser.
50 SMA Rising strategy. Suitable for Swing Trading Initial Stop loss lowest of last 2 candles and keep trailing with 30 days SMA if price close below 30 SMA then Exit or be in the trade for 2 to 4 weeks.
Target & Stop loss shown on Chart. Do not Forget to Exit if Stop loss Hit.
Be Discipline because discipline is the Key to Success in the STOCK Market .
50 SMA Rising - Swing Tradeisclaimer: I am not a Sebi registered adviser.
This Idea is publish purely for educational purpose only before investing in any stocks please take advise from your financial adviser.
50 SMA Rising strategy. Suitable for Swing Trading Initial Stop loss lowest of last 2 candles and keep trailing with 30 days SMA if price close below 30 SMA then Exit or be in the trade for 2 to 4 weeks.
Target & Stop loss shown on Chart. Do not Forget to Exit if Stop loss Hit.
Be Discipline because discipline is the Key to Success in the STOCK Market.
Ethereum's Fading Dominance: A 2023 Trend That Could ContinueEthereum's relative strength against Bitcoin has been waning throughout 2023, and technical analysis suggests this trend may persist.
A Breakdown in the Making
Ethereum (ETH) has been showing signs of weakness relative to Bitcoin (BTC) throughout 2023. This trend and a recent technical breakdown suggest that ETH/BTC could continue its downward trajectory.
Key Technical Indicators
1. Relative Strength Index (RSI): The RSI for ETH/BTC has been declining, indicating a loss of momentum in Ethereum's price action relative to Bitcoin.
2. Moving Averages: The 50-day and 200-day moving averages for ETH/BTC have crossed over, forming a bearish "death cross" pattern. This pattern often signals a potential downtrend.
3. Support Levels: ETH/BTC has struggled to hold onto key support levels, suggesting that selling pressure is increasing.
Why is Ethereum Losing Ground to Bitcoin?
Several factors may be contributing to Ethereum's relative weakness:
1. Network Congestion and High Fees: Ethereum's network has been plagued by congestion and high transaction fees, particularly during periods of peak demand. This has led to a decline in user experience and network adoption.
2. The Rise of Layer-2 Solutions: While Layer-2 solutions like Arbitrum and Optimism have helped alleviate some of the congestion issues, they have also fragmented the Ethereum ecosystem.
3. Competition from Other Smart Contract Platforms: Other smart contract platforms, such as Solana and Cardano, have been gaining traction and challenging Ethereum's dominance.
4. Bitcoin's Growing Institutional Adoption: Bitcoin has been increasingly adopted by institutional investors, who view it as a store of value and a hedge against inflation. This increased demand for Bitcoin could be driving capital away from Ethereum.
The Potential Impact of the Merge
The Merge, a significant upgrade to the Ethereum network, was expected to improve network efficiency and reduce energy consumption. However, the impact of the Merge on Ethereum's price performance has been mixed. While the Merge may have long-term benefits for the Ethereum ecosystem, it has not been enough to reverse the short-term trend of ETH's underperformance relative to Bitcoin.
Conclusion
Ethereum's relative weakness against Bitcoin is a concerning trend for ETH holders. The technical indicators suggest that ETH/BTC could continue to decline in the coming months. While the Merge was a significant milestone for Ethereum, it may not be enough to offset the challenges facing the network. Investors should closely monitor the price action of ETH/BTC and be prepared for further downside.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Please conduct your own research or consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Moving Average Positions (50,100,200)Normally when bear moves arise the 50 and 100 are above the 200 as there is more room for a downward move than an upward one.
Right now the 50 and 100 are BELOW the 200, which suggests that they have more room to move up ABOVE the 200MA in red, which would happen during a bull move.
Observation of the MA's
Comment if you think otherwise !
Daily timeframe
MY SPX500USD LONG IDEA 04/11/2024Direction: Long
SL: 5,619.1
Checklist:
- MA 20 going Upward
- Break of Trendline
- Fib level
- Bounce from a Support/Resistance
- Penetrate a Support/Resistance
- Edgefinder Score
- Correlation Confluence
- Trading Central Preference
Technical:
1. MA 20 Yellow is above MA 100 and 200 (Purple and Red).
2. No strong trendline reading but if it breaks my bullish purple line then price will go up.
3. Price bounced off from a Resistance zone.
4. FIB level 0.38 @ 5701.3 .
5. Tradingcentral tool signaling Rise on Time frames 15m,1h,4h and daily at the moment.
6. Q4 seasonality is bullish.
Fundamental and economic:
1. I use Edgefinder tool which shows me a score of 2 "Neutral Bullish".
2. We have US elections coming up and regardless of which president wins it’s going to be bullish for USD and stocks.
3. US NFP came out horrible 12k but market wants a revision and is in a speculative state.
5. USD is on the rise after a recovery.
6. VIX spiked a little and is calming down.
MY EURUSD SHORT IDEA 01/11/2024Direction: Short
SL: 1.0849
Checklist:
- MA 20 going downward
- Break of Trendline
- Fib level
- Bounce from a Support/Resistance
- Penetrate a Support/Resistance
- Edgefinder Score
- Correlation Confluence
- Trading Central Preference
Technical:
1. MA 20 Yellow is falling to MA 100 and 200 (Purple and Red).
2. Red Trendline was broken recently.
3. Price bounced off from a Resistance zone.
4. No FIB level found.
5. Tradingcentral tool signaling DECLINE on Time frames 15m,1h,and 4h but it is bullish and signaling RISE on daily time frame at the moment.
6. Q4 seasonality is bullish actually but with a short term bearish.
Fundamental and economic:
1. I use Edgefinder tool which shows me a score of -1 "Neutral Bearish".
2. We have US elections coming up and regardless of which president wins it’s going to be bullish for USD.
3. US NFP came out horrible 12k but market wants a revision and is in a speculative state.
4. EUR / DE10Y is falling.
5. USD is on the rise after a recovery.
6. VIX spiked a little.
MY NAS100 LONG IDEA 31/10/2024Direction: Long
SL: 1950-1966
Indicators:
1. MA (20,50,100,200)
2. Trendline - Algo
3. Support and Resistance
4. Fib Level
5. I also use MT5 - Tradingcentral tools
Technical:
1. MA 20 still above 100 and 200 so I believe we still have room for bull run.
2. Red trendline was broken so we have a price drop but I also see a possibility for the price to and breakthrough the green trendline.
3. Price is dropping to a Support zone and I have a confirmation on Tradingcentral tool on MT5.
4. FIB level at golden zone.
5. Tradingcentral tool signaling DECLINE but price is bouncing off of the support area at the moment.
Fundamental and economic:
1. US economic data is looking good we had a bunch of data that negatively impacted the prices but I think these are good retracement opportunities.
2. I use Edgefinder tool which shows me a score of 5 "bullish" on Nasdaq.
3. We are in Q4 and usually this is where we find good setups for long run.
MY COCOA LONG IDEA 01/11/2024*Did not enter this trade yet*
Direction: Long
SL: 7425.4
Indicators:
1. MA (20,50,100,200)
2. Trendline - Algo
3. Support and Resistance
4. I also use MT5 - Tradingcentral tools
5. Fib
Time Frame: 4h (I also use other time frames mainly 1D because I like to trade for long period of time)
Technical:
1. MA 20 (Yellow) is very bearish and below the MA 100 and 200 (Purple and Red) but I expect a reversal in this pattern.
2. Red trendline was broken previously so I'm looking for a breakthrough the green trendline.
3. Price respected the Support zone and is rising towards the fib level at 8216.2.
5. Tradingcentral tool signaling RISE on all time frames signifying a very bullish Price action.
Fundamental and economic:
1. COCOA is a very tricky commodity but we can simplify this by looking at the COT data where they were short about 1-2 weeks ago making a short-term bearish setups and I think we are past that phase because in the long run COT is bullish on COCOA.
2. Q4 historically is bullish for this pair according to the seasonal indicator by Tradingview.
3. US Elections, Halloween, Winter season, and Christmas is an influence in the Demand of Cocoa.
50 SMA Rising- Positional TradeDisclaimer: I am not a Sebi registered adviser.
This Idea is publish purely for educational purpose only before investing in any stocks please take advise from your financial adviser.
Its 50 SMA Rising Strategy. Suitable for Positional Trading Initial Stop loss lowest of last 2 candles and keep trailing with 50 days SMA if price close below 50 SMA then Exit or be in the trade some time trade can go for several months.
Be Discipline because discipline is the Key to Success in the STOCK Market.
Trade What you see not what you Think
S&P biblical top? island top - falls back to 200 EMA weekly 22%S&P has made an island reversal
It will at some point fall back to the 200 EMA on the daily or weekly 22%
Bearish opportunity
I think that a multi year top is now in place for this index, this first 22% down may trigger the topping process for this index as sentiment indicators are at record levels and retail participation is at an all time high. Plus money mngt firms are fully long with next to no spare money to invest in a dip.
So like in the 1929 who is left to buy ? As per Jesse Livermore book 'Even the shoe shine lad said to the banker that he had bought stocks' and the banker went and sold out his entire holding and made himself rich as he realised there were no new buyers left everyone was all in just like now!
May be Trump stops the Fed continually printing debt to use it to buy up the market?
If debt is issued maybe they use it to buy stable coins now not the traditional markets which would lead to a huge multi year bear market for equities
Good luck to all and stay safe! Luck is when opportunity meets a prepared mind!
$SPY November 16, 2024AMEX:SPY November 16, 2024
For a change target came without much of drama.
Could not short the previous day. So had no trade.
For the week:
5 Minutes:
We had multiple LL and managed to close HL HH pattern.
Oscillator divergence can be seen.
9,21, 50 averages converged.
So, expecting a bounce to 589 - 592 levels being 100 and 200 averages.
200 averages in 5 minutes could be a good level to short.
SL 592.75 being 23.6% retracement for the rise 567.86 to 600.17.
15 Minutes:
We can see a consolidation going on last 15 bars or so.
Downtrend intact as below 50,100 and 20 averages.
Again 590 to 593 represents 50 to 200 average range in 15 minutes too.
60 Minutes.
Took support at 200 averages.
For the fall 600.17 to 583.86 593-594 is a good level to short. it represents 61.8% of retracement for the fall.
Daily:
Took support of 21 average in daily.
Holding 580 is important to continue uptrend taking the last rise into consideration from 567.89 to 600.17.
If 580 is broke next support is 575-576 levels.
It also represents 23.6% retracement for the rise 539.44 to 600.17.
So next week range is
Go long with SL 583.5 for 590-592 as target.
or go short below 580 for 576+ as target SL 581.5
Analyzing the Long Link: 200-Day Moving Average and Bullish MomeChainlink (LINK) has been making waves in the cryptocurrency market, particularly after its recent price action. The token, which facilitates secure and reliable data exchange between smart contracts and real-world data sources, has shown promising signs of a bullish trend.
LINK's interaction with the 200-day Moving Average (MA) is a key indicator of this bullish momentum. This long-term moving average often is a significant support or resistance level for cryptocurrencies. When a cryptocurrency bounces back from this level after a correction, it can signal a strong bullish reversal.
In the case of LINK, the token experienced a notable correction earlier this year. However, it has since rebounded and successfully reclaimed the 200-day MA. This bullish signal has ignited optimism among traders and analysts alike.
Several factors contribute to the bullish sentiment surrounding LINK:
1. Strong Fundamentals: Chainlink's underlying technology and growing adoption within the DeFi ecosystem continue to drive its value. The platform's ability to provide reliable and tamper-proof data is essential for developing decentralized applications.
2. Institutional Interest: Institutional investors are increasingly recognizing the potential of blockchain technology, and Chainlink is emerging as a key player in this space. This growing institutional interest can lead to increased demand for LINK tokens.
3. Technical Analysis: Technical indicators suggest that LINK is poised for further upside. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently in oversold territory, indicating potential buying opportunities. Additionally, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is crossing above its signal line, which is a bullish signal.
4. Market Sentiment: The overall market sentiment for cryptocurrencies has been positive recently, with Bitcoin and Ethereum leading the charge. This positive sentiment can spill over into other altcoins, including LINK.
While the bullish outlook for LINK is promising, it's important to remember that the cryptocurrency market is highly volatile. Traders should exercise caution and consider risk management strategies when investing in LINK or any other cryptocurrency.
Potential Upward Targets:
If LINK continues its bullish momentum and breaks above key resistance levels, it could potentially target the following price levels:
• Short-term target: $10
• Medium-term target: $15
• Long-term target: $20
Key Support Levels:
Traders should keep an eye on the following support levels:
• Immediate support: $7
• Strong support: $5
Conclusion:
LINK's recent bounce back from the 200-day MA, coupled with strong fundamentals and positive technical indicators, suggests a strong bullish trend. While the cryptocurrency market is inherently volatile, LINK's potential for growth makes it an attractive investment for both short-term traders and long-term investors.
Disclaimer:
This article is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. It's essential to conduct thorough research and consider consulting with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
TSLA pullback playIt's been a while since I've shared an idea, but here I am bored on a Friday, a day I seldom trade, and thought I'd share an analysis for a TSLA pullback.
TSLA has been one of the hottest stocks but it's my analysis that it's overbought. While it's Bullish overall, in my view it needs to cool off before further upside.
This is strictly an idea, no guarantee that it will playout.
Happy Trading!