Weekly Analysis 10th Sept 2022 - Nasdaq 100 #NQ #MNQ Week close on 12592*
* Strong Bullish on Daily chart , bullish engulfing candles on weekly and under construction Hammer on Monthly.
* A strong Trendline resistance coming up on 12600 along with RSI at 48. very crucial to break above 12650 and sustain to maintain bullish stand. with RSI, Volume and Trendline resistance Fridays move looks like an Bull Trap. Mondays close will dictate the further course of action.
Outlook for next week neutral. Monday will dictate the direction for the week.
Silver Lining for the previous week. appl: Bullish divergence and Tsla closed above 200DMA.
Outlook for monthly Neutral to Bearish.
S1: 12600 S2: 17250 S3: 16950
R1: 12300 R2: 12000 R3: 11900
A big short squeeze expected if we get daily close above 12800.
Mnq
NDX on do or die levels
SMA 180 Weekly is the crucial support for the NDX. On the positive side if bulls manage to save the last frontier of 11539 -11031 range we can see the bull market like previous multiple instances but if we get a close below 11500.
on weekly chart we will witness a freefall.
2001 (-64%) and
2008 (-41%)
once bitten Twice shy NQ analysis The NQ has bounce back from the lows with a good price action and with a reducing volumes its human psychology which has more of weightage of emotions of recent past "once bitten Twice shy".
We need to remember this is a bear market and in near to bottoms there is always chaos.
so trade with the strict stoploss and time to reduce the position size. let the price and volume dictate the future action plan.
trade safe " Money not invested in turbulent market is Money earned"
MNQ touches 100ma with daily hanging man candleWith crypto markets being hyped up claiming the bottom is in, the US tech market tells another story. First we have been under the 100ma on MNQ on the daily for 200 days which is a very significant period of time compared to NASDAQ's complete history from day 1.
Step back and think about this also, Joe Biden is the president and the democrats have proved to continue to create a bigger bear market with US politics. This is a healthy correction that is needed before the next bull run starts.
If you are smart you will continue looking for shorts even if your bias is fully bullish right now, find some low risk entries on shorts this week because if we bounce off the 100ma, it's going to be a pure dump.
In my analysis I would like to see a price target of 12,000 hit this week.
MNQ Volume Price Analysis After Feds Raised Rates | 1hr + KT'sThe market makers were in clear control of the news stop hunting both buyers and sellers within the same hour. After a long legged doji with ultra high volume printed, a huge Bearish Kangaroo Tail prints with high volume. The next few candles were confirming further weakness at the top with narrow spread candles and a baby Bearish Kangaroo Tail with volumes getting lower. After volume dried up, it was clear that buyer momentum was done and the distribution phase was coming.
NQ/MNQ Breakout or Breakdown?Bulls have had a nice and surprising push after fomc to the upside this week. Will be watching if price respects the DT line and will consider this an uptrend day in a bear market instead of an official uptrend reversal period until DT line is broken and value created above. I like longs above 500 as there is plenty of space for bulls to prop this up above there and short below 340, however, closed the day in key supply zone. Currently also sitting at 61% fib and will see if it can create value above 61% and push to 50% or reject below 61% going into next week. No bias, following the price/momentum and playing what the market gives us going into next week. With fomc, recent geo-political events and simply no news for this run-up, next week will should bring more volatility as well.
NAS100 - small Time Frame Buy Pressure Zone 😊Simple, we like to see price drop for us to add to our long positions
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Five Minutes On A 5m Futures Strategy (5 Thirty-Four)In tonight's fall back, daylight savings edition of the Futures Outlook, I revisit briefly a trend trading futures strategy I've named the 5-Thirty-Four. The ingredients are a 5 minute candle and a 34p EMA. Add a dash of VWAP bands and you've got everything you need. Then I look at the ES channel that's been in place for the past month that gives us a potential extension this week to 4740.
Be sure to check the links below the idea for how you can learn the 5-34 strategy in a risk-free demo/paper account in the live stream TDG ProTrading Room.
Stay Green and Trade Like You Mean It!
NAS100 - can we see a fall? Buy Pressure Zone 😊Technical Overview: - MNQ
We like to see price react to our buy zones providing intraday/scalps as they are not meant to be strong as the lower zone marked :)
Simple, whoever tells you short is selling you lies, you want to be on the safe side? stay bullish on US markets simple as that.
Wait for dips if they happen don't chase the market :)
Analysis is only 1 piece of the puzzle 🧩
Our analysis is a sentiment for the upcoming week, month.
Use this as a weather forecast, you are the person that has to put on a jacket when it’s raining.
Trade this sentiment based off your own entry strategy at the right time.
NAS100 - small Time-Frame Buy Pressure Zone 😊Technical Overview: - MNQ
We like to see price react to our buy zones providing intraday/scalps as they are not meant to be strong as the lower zone marked :)
Simple, whoever tells you short is selling you lies, you want to be on the safe side? stay bullish on US markets simple as that.
Wait for dips if they happen don't chase the market :)
Analysis is only 1 piece of the puzzle 🧩
Our analysis is a sentiment for the upcoming week, month.
Use this as a weather forecast, you are the person that has to put on a jacket when it’s raining.
Trade this sentiment based off your own entry strategy at the right time.
NQ - Micro TFNQ filled it's Gap during Globex.
Close for RTH @ 15611.
Prior to Asia opening Price moved up to a Front Run of the Intra-Day 50%
@ 15637.50 by 6 Ticks.
ES YM RTY sell bias at present 21:10:22 PM EST.
VIX, although dipping in 4 Ticks below 18.15 caught the Bid.
It's going to be a long night for traders until this breaks, probably near 03:30:00 AM EST.
It remains a hot mess of a market, desperate attempts were made today to keep the range
within 100 and they did.
BUT - watching 1,000 ES Contracts fly by on the SELL during the closing minutes... not healthy.
See if they can cross the 537.50 level this evening... 526s are now open for Business.
Futures | Why I Got Long All The Stock Indices on an UGLY CloseThe stock indices all broke below the prior sessions lows to make new lows for the week. But I noticed a few signs that made me pick up some micros long (MES, MNQ, KYM, M2K) right before the 5pm EST close.
Long MES 4385
Long M2K 2152
Long MYM 34822
Long MNQ 14827
$150 risk per position
QQQs @ 386 and NQ Equivalent Highs aheadThe Chart illustrates both the potential Target for the QQQs high from a positive Draw
as well as the convergence from the Negative draw.
Where would this leave the NQ?
15,755 ~
Something to consider as the prior Squeeze ahead of the Algo's level for Sell Scale to
Open began a 500 point vertical move @ 4:02PM EST.
It created the largest Gap and Trap in Globex History.
And it promptly sold off off that evening and into the following session and continued
down significantly.
History will repeat, this is my sell level for NQ/MNQ - We will be scaling in from 15,500
to the target.
Macro Perspective - TechnologyAn increasing level of concern is rising within the Bond, Equity and Real Estate Complexes or Markets.
I prefer Complex as each "Market" has a number of entities using their control mechanisms.
The Equity Complex has a number of headwinds approaching for Technology (NQ). Yields, specifically the 10Yr Treasury Note
has been a reliable Instrument for an Inverse or Negative Correlation. 10Yr Yields rose Friday 4.6%
In addition, we want to observe the Long End of the Yield Curve flattening - this is a warning sign, one which proceeds corrections.
Technically, the most recent reversal has seen poor breadth within NQ. The majority of the rise have been driven by the usual
narrow Big Cap, heaviest weighted Equities. AAPL, GOOG, AMZN, FB, MSFT - NVDA provided most of the gains for Index.
Unusual option activity has been on the rise as well, favoring large and often extreme positions for downside. One Trade amounted to $40Million in QQQ 340 Puts.
The NQ has repeatedly created a large squeeze prior to a reversal, the last thrust higher pushed up 500 points late in the day only to collapse the following day, giving up all of its gains.
IMHO, something is brewing which will be extremely bad for the NQ. There are a number of vectors for it see a large correction. Earnings will be led by share buy backs, Co2 Credits and a host of other accounting manifestations, but Gross Revenues should be less than optimal for a sustained uptrend.
The "Delta" variant may encourage some traders to position for increasing "growth" initially - this is not March of 2020.
Taiwan is at risk on a number of fronts. This would clearly be a large negative for Semiconductors. I do believe this will play out as there is an increasing number of large entities seeking to follow Apple's lead with their RISC Architecture and begin using their own Chipset Designs and Architecture. MSFT announced this some time ago. Google continues to reduce MSFT Office's market share with Google Docs. Windows 11 is a clear signal MSFT is changing their strategy after having announcing Win 10 was it.
The concentration of Chip/Chipset fabrication in Taiwan presents an imbalance globally and with it the attendant risks.
China is one, Water is another and there are a more. Japan has recently sworn to defend Taiwan as they are wholly dependent on Semiconductors for almost everything they manufacture.
The US has conducted multiple Naval exercises in the South China Sea for years. IS something brewing there? I do not know, but do believe there is an inherent risk well advanced with respect to Taiwan. There is little the US can do to prevent China taking back Taiwan IMHO.
I favor a Geopolitical Event inducing this correction, one that occurs after hours during GLOBEX and not RTH.
Europe is well advanced in declining Economic activity. The pace of Economic growth in China has slowed. The US reopening trade has been one of confusion, mistrust and one foot our the door.
If traders review Samsung in 2019 and their decline in Gross Revenues, we are witnessing the same event spreading once again.
Inflation changes purchasing decisions, substitution effects begin to take place.
There is much more, but I will condense this in now: I expect Tech to see a large correction later this month. I expect a number of Monthly Red Bars for a number of Indices.
I will discuss the ES YM RTY and Bonds in upcoming posts. I do believe the Russell 2000 and tech will lead the Indices down soon.
Perhaps August - November contracts will serve us well. Given the large ranges, using Micro Contracts for Inverse Ladders would be a wise choice.
The VXN should be monitored closely, it has worked well.
We will see how hard this can be pushed prior to a large reversal.
The VIX has not been as correlated to the NQ as the VXN and 10Yr Yields.
Good Trading Everyone - more to follow as we are approaching highs in everything, although the YM won't likely peak until August.
Upside vs Downside
You can see what the Nasdaq has been doing for the past few days - nothing.
There is serious overhead resistance. Unless it breaks through the easiest path is a 61% retracement and fill the gaps below and try again.
Again if the trendline get broken all bets are off.
Nasdaq is better at filling gasps better the SPX.