Get started

Mining

Why is there no direction in the price of the Bitcoin?Acutally, so many outside influences make it difficult to predict which way the price of Bitcoin will go. Bulls and bears keep the price well in a balance and it remains inside a narrow bandwidth with very low volumes. Let us try to see the whole picture. I list here the main fundamentals and present a chart, which shows the partly interfering trends and signals. What are the fundamentals? • News from South Korea about banning cryptocurrency trading in the future. • News from China about banning cryptocurrency mining and verification. • Right now, China hosts 80% of the computer capacity for the Bitcoin blockchain. Will operation of the Bitcoin come to a temporarily halt? Will investors lose Bitcoins? What about the mining contracts? How long will it take to replace this huge computer capacity? • News from USA that they will sell seized Bitcoins worth over 300 million US-Dollars. • News from Bulgaria that they will sell seized Bitcoins worth 3.5 billion US-Dollars. • Because of the newly implemented high transaction fees, will Bitcoin survive as a payment coin? What can we read in the chart? • There is a red dashed line at 14129. Below that line, the scenario is bearish and above that line, the scenario is bullish. • There is a triangle, drawn in dark-blue color. Bitcoin is actually at point 4. From there, it should continue in direction of point 5 and there, it should outbreak on the upper side of the triangle. • However, we see that the price moves in direction of point 4 again instead of point 5. Will there be a downside breakout today? In the last few weeks, we experienced already enough downside breakouts. • Since January 7, 2018, the value of the Bitcoin moves down inside a channel with blue dotted borderlines. • On the same time, it is also within a sideward channel build by the red dashed line and the yellow dashed line. It is not very likely that we will see a decisive move in either direction. I expect over the weekend low volumes and the price oscillating inside the square that is built by the blue downward channel and the sideward channel between the red and the yellow line. However, we have to be prepared for a downward outbreak, which would result in a free fall down to the level of 5568. This could happen if some traders would start selling in panic in a market with low volumes. In this case, use the opportunity for buying cheap Bitcoins. What is the best strategy in such a quiet and boring market? Two subjects are becoming important in such a quiet market: • Market Corrections • Portfolio Erosion Goldbug1 has written a great article about both subjects. I recommend reading it. Personally, I learned important things about how to trade such a difficult market. It is really worth reading about his strategies. Please click on the chart below for reading it. I wish you good luck, happy trading and a great weekend. Luckyhelper
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by luckyhelper
Chinese rumors confirmed.A new, bigger bullish triangle pattern developed over the last few weeks. We can expect an outbreak on the upper side end of this week or beginning of next week. Until then, only small price moves within the triangle pattern will happen. An outbreak on the upper side will open new targets at 22500 and 24000. However, we shall not forget that the US-government and the Bulgarian government own seized Bitcoins worth more than 3 billion US-Dollars and they want to sell them. We have to expect many major setbacks of the price of the Bitcoin at any time and this will make trading the Bitcoin much more volatile and risky in the future. Alternative scenario: We shall not forget that minor triangle patterns did not behave as expected during the last few weeks. As I already mentioned in my analysis from January 10, 2018, we cannot expect that chart signals will always work the traditional way for the months to come. I could confirm the Chinese rumors on Bitcoin. The Chinese government is now having its eyes on local bitcoin miners present in the country. A huge number of miners has set their operations at some places in China, where electricity is available at low cost. With the Chinese government getting involved in control over these activities, it could possibly have a massive impact on the price of Bitcoin. According to some Twitter messages, the Chinese government is planning for an “orderly exit” for Bitcoin mining operations because the miners have consumed “huge amounts of resources.” - www.coinspeaker.com We expect official news about this matter today. Depending on the conditions of this "orderly exit", the price of the Bitcoin could fall into nowhere. If Bitcoin mining becomes much more expensive, it could also have the opposite effect and skyrocket the price of the Bitcoin. I stay on the sideline, ready to act on the news.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by luckyhelper
2
Bad Stock, Poor Market Conditions, but otherwise a great companyNewmont Mining, “Newmont”, is one of the world’s largest gold mining company by Market Capitalization with operations in the United States, Australia, Peru, Ghana and Suriname. On average, over the past 7 years, the company has contributed to 3.58% of the world’s supply of gold (based on World Gold Council figures). Compared to its strongest competition, Barrick Gold, its operational mines are located in politically stable geographical zones. In an industry where government intervention and scrutinity is part and parcel of normal business, an investor would most certaintly benefit from companies that has less exposure to such erratic regulations. Newmont's share price is highly correlated to gold price, which should be of no surprise as its bulk of profit is derived from gold mining. Gold, for a good part of modern history, has served as a hedge against inflation and would probably continue to do so. It has also become an asset investors flock to in times of uncertainty. While it is great that we are getting news almost every day about indices making new highs, investors should not be complacent and assume this would continue forever. Firstly, the Chinese financial industry is undergoing a deleveraging process. In an article by CNBC, according to the Institute of International Finance in June 2016, China’s debt-to-GDP ratio stands at 327 percent. If we recall, just about a decade ago, overleveraging was the cause of the great recession, causing the economy to plunge into freefall. Gold prices rallied from the low of US$781 per ounce at the start of the crisis in September 2007 to an all-time high of US$1878 in August 2011. To put it simply, no one had a clue about where we would move on from there, and their best bet in times of uncertainty would always trace back to Gold. As you are reading, China is still in the midst of their deleveraging process. Money supply growth has slowed tremendously while aggregate financing was RMB 70 billion lower than estimated, at RMB 1.04 trillion, according to a report by Bloomberg. With lesser money going around the economy, interest rates are set to rise. The Chinese 10-Year Bond Yield stands at 3.96% as of this writing, up from 2.66% about a year ago. As the interest rates rise, companies would find it increasingly difficult to meet their debt obligations as refinancing becomes more expensive while they are still drowned in excess capacity. Due to the significant amount of bureaucratic red tape around Chinese statistics, investors’ sentiment is should be best reflected in the market. The Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index (SHCOMP) is at 3,276, down about 5% from this year’s high of 3,447. While we have yet to see any event that could trigger a market-wide correction, it would not be right to assume a black swan event is not brewing somewhere. To continue reading the full report, please visit houtiantan.com
NYSE:NEMLong
by HouTianTan
Global Blockchain Technologies Breakout?Over the last few months Global Blockchain Technologies Corp broke out of its long price action slump with the announcement of a name change (...LOL...). Now they have announced involvement in crypto mining. Coupled with the fact that institutional investors are super yield hungry in an environment with prolifically low return on capital rates - even negative with inflation in many cases - this could be a monster trade. In pure technical terms, regardless of the fundamentals, we have an ascending wedge that could breakout to the upside. A break above the max consolidation range will also be a signal taking this stock very high, which used to trade at one point in time at $460! Cheers and GLWT! -Erik
BLong
by Trader6127
24
ETH Miners will move to Monero and other GPU coins www.coindesk.com Ethereum plans to upgrade its proof of work dramatically lowering the profits for GPU miners. I feel that much of Ethereums strength came from its well distributed mining algo and now we will see a huge movement not only of hashpower but also funds to other GPU minable coins. Remember the key to Crypto is Hashpower, Crypto cannot be separated from proof of work. PoW is what makes Coin=Energy, that is what makes it fair and distributed. I therefore feel very uncertain and Bearish about Ethereum and its outlook and Bullish for other ASIC resistant coins such as Monero.
POLONIEX:XMRUSDLong
by Emperor_Penguin
2
MGTI - Double before EOY. Moon in 2018MGTI is the largest miner of bitcoin in the U.S. but only a portion of their total rig count is up and running. MGTI will have 4700 mining rigs Q1 2018 with approximately 3500 up and running early January. Chart indicators: 1) Massive Cup+Handle Formation 2) Triple Bottom 3) Falling wedge / Handle 4) Q3 earnings come out Nov 9 (likely after hours). The earnings will show gains made by the company as they expanded their bitcoin mining operations in Q3 and Q4. Q3 should give us a "taste" of what to expect in Q4 followed by Q1 2018 which will probably be the mother lode as they'll have all 4700 rigs cranking out coin by then. They also have the plays on Sentinel and the privacy phone but I don't really care about those. I'm all about the mining. Look for $5-6 by January and $12-15 summer 2018. Buy now for less then $2!
OTC:MGTILong
by jdharward
2
Bitcoin (BTCUSD) - Costs 1.3k+ to mine priced at 7.2k o_OAs you can see here the prob of Bitcoin crushing past 7.5k --> breakout --> Bubble We need a healthy consolidation to around cost of making a bitcoin, otherwise the bubble that is to follow could lead to a gov wipeout of everything. (vertical log climbing is only seen with bubbles) Think of it this way: 1oz Gold costs 1100+ to mine --> priced at 1269 usd <--- see the difference? o_O 1 Bitcoin costs 1300+ to mine --> priced at 7230 usd <--- see the difference? o_O Let's say you argue for blockchain technology, well arn't there tons of crypto with exact same function as Bitcoin? Yes there are and how expensive are they? So let's say the cap of Bitcoin would be 50k or 1million usd, what is the incent to buy a bitcoin then if a bitcoin fork does the same job for who nows how many % cheaper price? Of it's driven buy earning returns on Bitcoin. There are currently around 1260 different crypto coins so you can't argue any more that the blockchain technology is worth anything close to 1300 dollars. Then again you could argue that Bitcoin is different, but really, comon, now let's be real. The difference between Bitcoin and Bitcoincash is speculation, slim at most with a difference in the number of transactions per day favoring Bitcoincash if i remember it correctly. Perhaps this is precisely what the gov wants, blowing up prices so no major player wanna touch it, regulate the crap out of it. I invested 1 % in Bitcoin at feb of this year but still there is no logical reason to not take profits right now, just watch at the price action and try analysing it with different indicators.. If nothing makes sense anymore + vertical climb + all indicators pointing to the same thing only a bubble can explain a growth to infinity. And this my friends is NOT a currency! Money don't behave like this. Only the dotcom bubble stocks even come close to what we see in the cryptosphere. Trade depending on resistance line ( still i would take profits here ) //cheers, thefreedommatrix
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by thefreedommatrix
4
DIGITAL NECKLACE: An analogy for blockchain valueTranscript: One of my previous posts aimed to justify the price that Bitcoin has. It's value is the accumulation of work put in by miners over quintillions of hashes. The current block is 491040. Taking data from historical hashrates, I get 193,142,784,388,787 terahashes in total. The data I can't easily get is how much each hash or terahash costs. Using 200 W power draw for 1 GH/s and 0.08 USD KW/h for prices. Let's try doing this via assuming Bitcoin were fully centralized. - Suppose a single person is hashing this. - His hashrate is 702,161.589 TH/s since 2009. Finally his power draw would be Hashrate / WattageCard. This gives a total of 3.5 GW. This person has been drawing 3.5GW on his rig since 2009. Now taking in the price into account: Operational cost = 2.46M USD/year @ {3.5GW, $0.08 KW/hr} Since that's the cost per year, and the data I used spans averages over 9 years, total cost of the network has been around 24M USD. If the calculations are valid, that means that in the market, the cost of operation is only 20% of the price. Note that since this is from the supply side, no prices of Bitcoin have to be taken into account. It's simply operational cost assuming constant electricity prices. If we now consider capital, if each card costs on average 600 dollars, and 1 out of 100 ARM/AMD/NVDIA units are dedicated to mining, I speculate that 100,000 cards and cores have been dedicated to mining. That cost makes mining go up to 60M USD. In total, electrical costs and invested capital, we could approximate that 80M USD have gone into Bitcoin mining. According to the current price and market cap report, there is a 20M surplus in costs not considered here and speculation. At the time of writing, the market value is 101M. That brings me to the second part of this writing. While we can agree that Proof-of-Work is an abstract concept, the previous calculations don't make it that different from the invented jobs without purpose throughout the history of the United States, trying to cover up financial failure and trying to keep unemployment at bay. Once we take history into account, that 20M gap can be explained with what we, people in crypto, appreciate. Let me exemplify with a tangible creation, more relatable to non-savvy users. Consider the following: There is a group of people at the beach. They find a string and some beads, so they decide to tie a really string knot and add their beads. On those beads, they write their names, and they write the name of the previous bead. They leave the beach with some instructions for the necklace. As time goes on, people find the necklace and add their own beads, following the rules. If someone notices that a bead isn't following the rules, that bead is taken out and the necklace keeps the tradition. This necklace started tied to a pole on the beach. The first users added a few dozen beads. That makes the necklace perhaps 10 centimeters long. That's shorter than an adult hand. But after years, 9 to be more precise, the line has almost half-a-million beads. That's already around 2 kilometers long. It's no longer just the price of the beads and the effort people have put into threading them. There is some human value put into the trust and care. It's more than just a beach object with beads. It's part of the history of everyone involved in the creation of this. That is how we see Bitcoin, in a more abstract sense. It's more than just electrical costs and burned GPUs. It's forks and news. Fighting FUD and losing money over hacks. It's seeing your networth rise despite others telling you to sell, because you are part of the chain.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by UnknownUnicorn1038536
1
GFI: Bought at market open - Huge potential, great fundamentals$GFI is an optimal pick when it comes to gold miners. The valuation is very good, and growth exhibited by the company this year exciting. The situation in South Africa has scared investors away, but I believe it will be a very interesting trend going forward. At the same time, this play serves as a risk off bet, which is welcome in the current enviroment. We are long with a 10% position from 14.09 as of today's open. Best of luck if joining me on this trade. The monthly trend is potentially up, and there is a chance to confirm a rally to considerable heights by the end of the month. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
NYSE:GFILong
by IvanLabrie
8
Rio Tinto - Up or Down ?Rio has successfully completed a rising wedge pattern - broke down the support line and now it's slowly going to test it. It seems like very likely the support becomes a new resistance and stock is going to go down. However, it has also stopped at the 50MA with slightly increased volume, which may signal also a support. Now, it is crucial to watch the lower trend line of the wedge, whether it breaks it back or not and based on that Rio will choose its next journey.
LSE:RIO
by Turpan