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Midterm

BTC: Bearish scenarioWelcome peeps, I am solixouss, i started trading about a year ago. i used to watch the charts and the historical data, it realy worked for me. This is my Second TA and i hope it will play out like my first one. I am not sure at all so dont take this as an advice, it's just for educational purposes I am looking for this play to enter the market, first i think we will make a fakeout to around 3900 range and after that we might see that USDBTCSHORT is dumped to the Bottom trendline range (2300-2500 depends on when this will play out) Out of historical data you can see that we might see a big selloff at this range.. i have my fingers crossed :) Comment what you think about this chart please. Tips are welcome
by Solixouss
5
GBP/AUD LIQUIDITY FILL -ARE WE READY TO SEE 1.8000?It appears that once again the price was dumped into the psychological level: 1.7650 (in the midst of large fundamental talks) before price rallied 250 PIPS to the upside & potentially wiping out many traders short profits on the day. What happened here? Why is this a common theme in the foreign exchange markets? Why is it that so many people lose? Does this style of playing on the emotions and psychology of the masses in effect make the larger institutions money? or is it all a FAD? - Who knows? Maybe we need to open our eyes a little more. Anyway, the price action is as clear as can be and for as long as the pair trades above 1.7750 (weekly SUPP) then I expect buyers to step in, price to rise and some temporary faith to be restored in the hearts of those giving up the most energy to let their 'voices be heard' throughout the Brexit talks, votes and whatever other manipulation of the masses is occurring in the here and now. I always remain chart focused with a 10% outlook over fundamentals. After today I would be very surprised if GBP/AUD sinks into new weekly lows! We have a barrier at 1.7875 that we need to take out, a minor intraday dip may well form to around 1.7800-1.7820 then price may start to accelerate as many stops will be lurking just above 1.7925.
Long
by QW-Trading
Bitcoin LONG Opportunity 5000 TargetElliott Wave analysis here showing that we are currently in a consolidation phase of wave 2. We are range trading in what appears to be a consolidation triangle with upper bounds of 4085 and lower bounds of 3970 that is taking the form of a nice bull flag from the last impulse wave 1. On the daily chart, we are trading right below the 50 EMA causing pretty decent resistance. The (b) subwave bounced right off of it and back down. So I suspect the (d) subwave will do the same before the 3rd and final attempt will break through. This also coincides very closely to the neckline of the inverted head and shoulders I have drawn. If this indeed happens that we break through the 50 EMA, and the neckline, many people will jump in to buy and the impulse could be very bullish. Our first target/resistance would be the 4188 red resistance line. This showed strong support and resistance back to Fall of 2017, but again during the recent months in December. But this should not hold the bulls very long and they will continue up to 4426-4445 zone. From here we will need a retrace on Wave 4 back to retest 4188 (and very close to a retest the neckline) before Wave 5 impulse takes us to 5000 . So as you can see, I am quite bullish at this point. All though there is a lot of fighting to be had, we have a lot of positive signs. This right shoulder of the INV Head and Shoulders helps us see that we have printed Higher Lows since December 27th; that's 2 straight weeks. We are also trading above the 50 and 200 EMA on the 4 HR chart which is providing support now. I will publish an expanded view below to exhibit the full wave count and head and shoulders pattern. Beyond the 5000 target of this wave 5, we can obviously expect a retrace back to 4445 zone of the Major Wave 4 and then up to the Major Overhead Resistance at 5500-5800 . This coincides closely with a retest of the bottom of the descending triangle that formed from the All Time High last December. This triangle broke down and has created the recent bear market. So a retest of this area could spur another deeper correction below 3000 . On the flip side, in the near term, if we cannot break upward from the 50 EMA and the neckline of the head and shoulders with good volume. A weak breakout, or no breakout at all would be very bad news for the bulls, and my wave count would need to be reevaluated. I'm giving 60% chance on my first Bullish Option as drawn, and a decent 40% chance that we don't make a solid breakout and we continue downward creating another Lower High and more Lower Lows coming. See below for a blown out view! Give a Like if this was informative for you! Thanks. Have a Great Day!
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by bluemt95
XBTUSD - Bitmex - Long Position, Average Risk, High ReturnI think that we should bounce from around 2.9-3.1k ranges, after all that 6k drop we didn't really have an uptrend. This is where we should find support and have and ABC upwards to atleast 4k. A. Should go slightly above 3.6k ranges. B. 3.4-3.6k support ( depends where A will land). C. Could get to 4.2k ranges, I'm not sure about that. I will be laddering LONGs from now and try to shoot for 3.6k, if RSI doesn't show any bearish signs at 3.4k ranges I will continue to ride it to 3.6k before wave B. EDIT: Ignore trendlines at RSI, they are saved from other timeframes
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PLong
by Chamel037
The US Midterm elections to drive the "Aussie"Trade Set up - In theory, tactically shorting the ‘Aussie’ around 0.7100, targeting the psychological level of 0.7000 level would make sense for technical trades, given the entry would be aligned to a strong underlying trend. That said, the big picture and set-up on the daily makes us cautious to take that trade, in fact, we would look to initiate a long entry if we see a daily close above 0.7160 level. Why we like it - The ‘Aussie’ has been trading a bearish trend on a technical basis since the beginning of the year and this trend appears to be very mature. We can see bullish divergence between price and (slow) stochastic momentum, suggesting a potential reversal could be in play. A close through 0.7160 would go someway to confirming this. The US Midterm elections next week could cause volatility in the market, and we see the risk to the USD skewed to the downside, which would support AUDUSD on its way higher. The Democrats appear to be ahead of Republicans to control the House and while this is likely in the price we could see FX speculators fad US exposures into this event risk. Large players might start closing profitable short AUDUSD positions ahead of the risk event, and this short covering fuels our bullish case for AUDUSD. For this trade to play out we need to see a daily candle close above 0.71600 level where buyers might step it, and our potentially bullish stance heightened on a close through the 55-day moving average. Traders should approach this trade tactically and way for the market to provide an opportunity for a long entry above 0.71600. Given the CPI data due on Wednesday traders should consider keeping their positions to a minimum. We have also explained the US Midterm election in this video Disclaimer Trading leveraged products carries a high level of risk and may result in you losing substantially more than your initial investment. Pepperstone Group Limited is licensed and regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (AFSL 414530). Pepperstone Limited is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (FRN 684312). This information not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation
Long
by Pepperstone
1
USD/CNH Sell Idea (Potentially Major)This pairing has been unable to break above the $7 dollar resistance - rejected in Dec 16' and again in Oct 18'. I will be looking at a short position after technical and fundamental factors have lined up in favour of this direction. The US Mid-term elections have softened the dollar rally that began just before summer 2018. However, I will not be opening any positions until trend-line A has been broken. Losses can exceed initial deposits when trading market instruments. You can manage your losses by using smart risk management. Identify what your entry, Take Profit and Stop Loss levels will be before you enter a trade. If you stick by a smart trading plan you can substantially reduce your exposure to losses.
Long
by StirlingBishop
1
SPY - Nov 5 - 9 - Midterm ForecastFirst chart here, totally not used to the UI yet. My background is closer to market psychology than strict technical analysis, and thus my analysis should not be taken verbatim. I profess that most my analysis is from fear-gauging and psychological extrapolation based on similar past events - the crash in February, the DotCom crash, and the CN50USD chart are the major components. The predictions are fairly solid - sharp drop today (11/5/2018) caused by the shitstorm that was international news this last weekend (avg volume, -2.5%) + fear/volatility increasing in the market + last week's APPL EC, slow recovery throughout this week leading up to the midterm election (expect fairly low volume, most big players are holding until the volatility bomb passes through), then regardless of the results - a massive plummet (-3~-6%). I'm godawful at communicating my thoughts, and the chart is definitely not helping, but @Corginomics has a similar idea that's much better put. I am more moderate on the movements, but I believe we have somewhat of the same idea. Please do leave me plenty of questions - hopefully I can shed any light on my little theory.
AMEX:SPYShort
by fenditendi
1
Siacoin revving up the engine-BullFilter & BottomFinder say LongAnalysis: Correction ended, and accumulation nearing final phase. Inverse "FatBart" Head & Shoulders seen. Some fundamental things of note: 1.)Sia dev team is going to brick all Bitmain and Innosilicon ASIC miners (~10m USD worth of hardware) with a patch. 2.)The coin will fork and a version that does not include this ASIC resistance patch will be created. Fork is on Oct 31st. 3.)The only ASIC miner still able to work with Siacoin after this patch is the Obelisk, designed by siacoin partners. Entry Point: General Entry is this range is fine, just look for a local dip/low. Looking to go long in the range of 95 to 105, after pullback from current pus occurs. See detailed screenshot below, using Bottomfinder to find best local entry. Take Profit: The green lines represent target take profit levels. We suggest cashing out 10% at T1, 30% T2, 50% T3, 10% T4 (or let it ride if it still looks bullish ). Stop Loss: Stop Loss suggested at 88-89, which is below the liquidity pool and 2 established local support levels. Upon completion of T1 move stop loss to entry point to secure a risk free trade. Additionally continue moving stop loss up by one target each time a new target it reached. i.e. when T2 is reached, move stoploss to T1 level. This way you can ride out dips with no anxiety and automatically exit the trade in profit should you not be around to monitor!
Long
by theheirophant
DAX Short: Trend Channel has been brokenDAX is breaking the bullish parallel channel. This trend formation has been building up more than 30 months. What does it mean? We have already a confirmation from 3D chart. Now the market is fighting with EMA 200, but in my opinion we will break it too. RSI is bearish and MACD too. There is a potential of pull-back to edge of channel, but in this point I expect the bearish move. DAX now seems bearish. This is a short term trade, I expect we can reach bottom from 2018 at the value 11 700- 11 730. That will be our first target. The price could move on to big long term trendline (white) where I expect a bounce upwards. I think there will be a reaction at previous bottom upwards, but from midterm I guess we will test the white trendline. Short term trade: SELL ZONE: 12 050 - 11 900 TARGETS: 1. 11 760 - 11 700 2. along the blue area (white trendline) 11 300 - 11 200 SL: 12 160 If there is a pull-back sign, we will trade close manually and go back to the position at the edge of channel.
OANDA:DE30EURShort
by SlovakTrading
BTC mediano plazoBuenas, estuve muy ocupado últimamente, por lo que no pude subir análisis. Para no perder la costumbre, acá les dejo algo bien cortito. Actualmente haciendo retrace de la última caída. De romper esta zona (6500USD) hacia el alza, podemos esperar estos 3 objetivos marcados en celeste. Sino estaríamos ante un pequeño doble techo Objetivos finales marcados en amarillo. Hemos hecho un banderín alcista, cuyo objetivo, es similar al 3er target del retrace de fibonacci. Recuerden que en un banderín, la altura del mástil, marca el objetivo máximo que se podría obtener de esa figura. Y no es ninguna casualidad de que prácticamente coincida con el TP3 de Fibonacci. Otra cosa que marcaba la subida que estamos teniendo son las convergencias (o divergencia; aunque en realidad son divergencias cuando las trendlines se separan entre si y convergencias cuando tienden a acercarse) alcistas que estaban apareciendo entre el RSI y la gráfica. Mira las trednlines marcadas en rojo: Estas divergencias o convergencias marcan discrepancias entre el precio y la presión del mercado. Un movimiento alcista que tiene un RSI a la baja, indica que el movimiento esta perdiendo fuerza y que los osos empiezan a dar vuelta la batalla. se puede esperar, en un futuro no muy lejano, una caída. Un movimiento a la baja, que tiene un RSI al alza, indica que la presión alcista esta subiendo, los toros quieren tomar control del mercado; por lo que se podría esperar un movimiento a la alza en las próxima velas. Les dejo acá un ejemplo, del movimiento contrario (divergencia a la baja): Como ven, el precio subía, pero el RSI estaba perdiendo fuerza e iba en dirección contraria. Inmediatamente después (a veces puede demorar unas velas mas), el precio cayo. Dada la magnitud de la divergencia, la caída fue mayor, aunque no esto no siempre es una regla directa (relación del tamaño de la divergencia, con el tamaño del movimiento). Sigo Bearish on BTC, aunque estas pequeñas alzas se produzcan, son normales en todo movimiento. A mi forma de ver los 5k son casi una realidad, pero con BTC no se sabe. Les dejo algo que vengo masticando con unos amigos hace un tiempo ya, puede ser polémico, pero mi experiencia me lleva a creerlo: Que es la manipulación en el BTC? Continuamente escuchamos (y lidiamos) acerca de manipulaciones en el precio del BTC. Analizando estas "manipulaciones", me sorprendió (y me sigue sorprendiendo) la exactitud con la que, los movimientos "manipulados", cumplen niveles Fibonaccis u objetivos de determinadas figuras. Me refiero, es realmente sorprendente como estos movimientos se detienen en los puntos exactos de objetivos marcados. Me puse a pensar, estas ballenas o manipuladores, se ponen de acuerdo y dicen "Hoy vamos a tirar el precio hasta el nivel 0.618 de fibonacci, no nos pasemos de ese valor! no podemos romper esa regla!" o "Vamos a subir el precio para barrer todos estos shorts, pero detengámonos en USD7212, que es el objetivo marcado por el banderín o el nivel 0.5 de fibo" o "Hoy chicos vamos a barrer estos Longs, pero solo podemos movernos 200 dolares para abajo, porque sino romperíamos el HCH que estamos armando?"??????? No creo, si yo tengo el poder de manipular el precio a gusto y piachere, lo voy a mover como tenga ganas. Nadie se va a detener a respetar figuras o niveles fibo. Por ahí me dirán "Lo hacen así para que la gente no pierda interés en el mercado". Mentira!! Siempre va a haber perejiles nuevos que entren al mercado, siempre va a haber traders que crean que descubrieron mi método y, atraídos por las potenciales enormes ganancias, se meterán a hacer fortunas junto conmigo. Siempre va a haber ballenatos pequeños que se acoplen a mis movimientos. Y en todo caso, si tengo el poder de mover el precio, eventualmente lo movería de forma tal que podría estabilizarlo para atraer nuevos inversores. NO, no puedo negar que hay manipulaciones, en todos los mercados las hay en mayor o menor medida y en BTC es claro que existen. Pero todo esto no tenía sentido para mi. Tenía que haber algo mas de fondo. Investigando un poco más en profundidad, me puse a revisar análisis de grandes traders, y mas experimentados, en los momentos anteriores y posteriores a dichas "manipulaciones". Me encontré con dos cosas: 1)La gran mayoría preveía los precios alcanzados por estas "manipulaciones" 2)Casi todos manifestaban que esos valores no debían haber sido alcanzados hasta mucho mas adelante. Todo esto me llevó a armar una pequeña teoría. Los grandes capitales, las Ballenas, los manipuladores no PUEDEN manipular el precio mas allá de pequeñas extensiones. NO. Pero SÍ pueden acelerar o dilatar procesos. Si pueden hacer, que lo que vos esperabas mañana o en una semana, se desencadene hoy. Si pueden provocar que un movimiento que debería llevar una semana (incluso para BTC, ya que sabemos que el mercado de las cryptos es de 4 a 10 veces mas veloz que forex), se produzca en horas. Revisando para atrás, me di cuenta que, en la mayoría de las veces, siempre supimos que el objetivo era X. Pero era normal pensar que íbamos a tardar unos días en alcanzarlo, era 1000USD o 1500 incluso 2000USd de diferencia, incluso esperábamos algún retrace entre medio. PUM! Al día siguiente, el precio en el objetivo marcado, las redes sociales se llenan de personas gritando "Manipulación!!!", gente diciendo "pero debíamos ir para arriba, no para abajo!". Cuando revisas sus análisis son análisis de corto a mediano plazo y no de Mediano a Largo, y allí es donde se llevan la sorpresa. Porque el precio llegó, al fin y al cabo, a un objetivo dado por un indicador técnico, pero a un plazo mas corto de lo normal. Lo que debía pasar en días, paso en horas. lo que debía pasar en semanas, pasó en un día. Llega un momento en el que te acostumbras a estos recortes de tiempo y te das cuenta de esto. Empiezas a pensar que los análisis de largo plazo, se cumplen en poco tiempo, ya sabemos que nos vamos a saltear retraces, etc. Entonces, vuelve a cambiar el ritmo. Y entramos en un período como el que estamos transitando. Lateralidades de 5 días, retraces completos para cada movimiento. Lo que esperábamos que se de en unas horas o en un día, lleva semanas. Qué me llevo como conclusión? La manipulación no es de precios sino que de tiempos. Las ballenas, los manipuladores de mercados, pueden manipular el tiempo y no el precio. Hay fuerzas del mercado que no se pueden romper, por su naturaleza misma, por la naturaleza del ser humano; y ellos lo saben. Pueden empujar una tendencia para que suceda antes o para que se estire lo más posible, pero no pueden cambiarla. Solo el mercado puede. Me gustaría escuchar sus opiniones al respecto, intentaré contestarles desde el punto de vista de esta teoría o incluso aceptaré si es alguna falla que no vi sobre ella. Los dejo, por ahora solo queda esperar PD: Mis análisis no son indicadores de compra o venta, lo que el lector decida hacer con esta información es pura y exclusivamente responsabilidad suya. Saludos!
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by pelpa87
5
STORJ: Great opportunity for LONG TERMSTORJ is now in big downtrend channel (red). I expect a continuing of downtrend in the way of the red trend channel. But If we look at the chart from short-term, we can see short-term trend channel (yellow), where is a chance of breakout upwards. But it is only speculation. When the market breaks this small channel, there is a possibility to reach a previous bottom near the blue area (4600-4080 Satoshi). STORJ is a cloud coin and he gets awards as a good start-up etc. From long-term I'm convinced, that STORJ will be useful in future. In this deppresion time for altcoins, it is a good time for reload the supply of this coin, even if the drop would continue. At the chart I have market my opinion, my point of view. I expect this altcoin will drop more, but for long-term investors, it is good opportunity to buy this coin after every drop (step by step). The market could really drop to the levels 2000-1800 Satoshi and this will be the strongest support on the chart. I don't know if the sellers could get his price to these values. A lot depends on BTC move. From short or mid term I think STORJ will drop.
by SlovakTrading