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Medianlinetrading

DV - Good reasons to go longI like a clean movement of price. Certainly this is the case in $DV. What I like the most is the behavior at the Accumulation Zone. In my Video I go over this in detail and explain how one could also play it with Options. If things go the wrong way, you could even morph it into a new Strategy. Reasons to buy: - Accumulation Zone held - Rising Volume / Doubled since Oct. - CIB (Change In Behavior broken - Vol. Profile: HVN@Acummul. Zone - 80% Chance to the Center-Line Consideration: - wait for a Pull-Back to Buy and/or Sell Options to get assigned to go Long and capture Premium too. Stop/Loss: - Full body Candle Open/Close below A. Zone if long the Underlying - With Options: Start Wheel Strategy
NYSE:DVLong
by Tr8dingN3rd
2
CHPT - My Lotto-Ticket for ChristmasRule Nr. 1: Take it with a grain of Salt! ;-) OK, it's probably a Lotto Ticket. But IMO one with a monstrous chance of 80% if price trades within the Pitchfork. As we now, price has a 80% chance to reach the Center-Line. So, it's a Lotto Ticket with a good RIsk to Reward. Nothing more, nothing less. I'm in CHPT since over 1 year and got clapped. Ever since I was watching for any sign of a potential recovery. Nothing was showing on my radar. But now, I see a Volume that reminds me of a "Final Puke". Everyone who was long has to be scared out, before the Whales step in. Whales only buy Food for cheap. Is it cheap now? Depends on how you look at CHPT. Technically, I would say yes. Fundamentally I would say it's probably crap? Here's what I get from my fundamental Screener: "Overall CHPT gets a fundamental rating of 2 out of 10. We evaluated CHPT against 88 industry peers in the Electrical Equipment industry. Both the profitability and financial health of CHPT have multiple concerns. CHPT is valued quite expensive... ....but it does show an excellent growth." This last bit of the fundamental evaluation tells me, it's not dead yet. And who knows what they have in their back to recover? (SECULATION!!!). The Mansfield Indicator is clearly showing, that this Stock is way weaker than the S&P500. BUT - It starts to curl up... I have no clue what this Analysis is worth it. But I know what I see in the Volume and the recent Weeks drop. So, that's it for my Coffee-Ground reading. I am long the Stock, and I love the thrill it gives me for a cheap Lotto Ticket to a potential 1000% trade §8-) What ever you do with it, I'm not responsible. This is no trading advice. You will loose money! Don't follow my Analysis. It's all BS and Coffee-Ground reading with no profound reasoning §8-) Happy Christmas...oh, it's too soon...
NYSE:CHPTLong
by Tr8dingN3rd
22
Why I Buy MacDonalds With Both HandsMCD tanked impressively lately. I had no clue why. Then I checked the News, which I very rarely do. There was one article that made absolutely no sense to me: "Concerns about weight-loss drugs: There are some concerns that the growing popularity of weight-loss drugs, such as Ozempic and Wegovy, could take away demand from food companies like McDonald's." To me, this writer has inverse Logic. Why? Because if I would love the (crappy) MCD Food, and I could just take a Pill and loose weight, I would probably eat more at MCD. However, I buy with both hands since MCD is a the Center-Line of this Pull-Back Fork, as soon I have some indication. (Heads Up: Earnings ahead!) And remember: You can buy, even when you sell (...hint: Puts). It's the Buffet way. If price close in the money at end of DTE, you got the Put's premium, AND the Stock for a way cheaper price. If price is closing out of the money after DTE, you keep the premium....double Whopper §8-) Away for a healthy Burger at $MyOneKitchen.
NYSE:MCDLong
by Tr8dingN3rd
2
NASDAQ - NQ Black-Swan ScenarioThe Red Pitchfork is a Pendulum-Fork. It grabs the biggest Swings and projects the most probable path of price, like in this chart. The Count starts at P0 and relies on the REAL Swings that I teach you guys & gals. Therefore the Bump from the green Support-Line is NOT a Up-Swing. It's just the center part of a Sine-Wave. Then P3 is created, breaking the Support from the Low of P1, and continues up to the Center-Line of the Orange Pitchfork at P4. Since we know that a) price has a high chance to turn in the opposite direction after reaching the Center-Line AND b) The Pivot Count ends and restarts at P5 AND c) Price is still trading within the Red Pendulum-Fork ...we have a 80% Chance to reach the Center-Line of the Pendulum Fork around 1100 or even lower. By when? No clue yet, but have to drink another Coffee to read in the Ground again later §8-) OK, I admit, that's a kind of a Black-Swan event. But, I just follow my rules, my Framework and that is what I currently see. The opposite side of this is, that the 0-3/5 Count is just a simple "Flag", and price Skyrockets to the green Center-Line of the Green Fork, around 16050 - 16250, Taking the overall World situation, the incredible debt of countries like the USA, EU and others into the Blue-Print, I vote for the first scenario. My Helmet sits tight. Peace4TheWorld!
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by Tr8dingN3rd
27
SPY - S&P500 - ES: Beware of the reactionDid you made some NYSE:S too following my posts? Great. But... ...now is the time to beware of the slingshot. See, price has fallen quite nicely and we are all happy campers. Now we have to defend our short position, the ground we gained. And here's why: Although price still trades within the red down-sloping Fork, there are some signs that, soon price has reached it's Max-Stretch, which is when P5/0 is in. Could be at the sliding parallel below the Center-Line, or if a little panic hit's the Market, at the L-MLH. From there, the swing count start new, but this time to the upside. We know that if price zoomed through a Center-Line, the potential for a pullback to it is a given fact. From there, price could continue to the downside, or jumps above it and closes above it. That will be a very obvious sign that price has turned to the upside-swing again. Facts: 1. Price has reached the red CL 2. RSI is oversold 3. P5 could be in 4. POC of the Volume-Profile acts as Support On the Weekly picture, price still has a long way to go, until it reaches the Center-Line of the Pendulum-Swing Fork. At the time of this writing about another 400 Points, to 3800/3750. For now, just be alert to protect your profits. Remember: You can't always eat the whole Cake! Better letting the S&P500 reload and then shoot from higher levels again and give our self another Christmas Gift. §8-) Peace4TheWorld
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Tr8dingN3rd
MNST - Monster with a monstrous drop?Nah, not monstrous, but a drop maybe. What do we have in this chart? The up-sloping Fork projects the most probable path that price takes. So, it's up, until price is falling out of the Pitchfork. Next, the A/R or Action/Reaction lines (slight blue). All they do is measure a pullback action and project the corresponding reaction. As we see, the A/R line above the last high is not touching price, but it gives kind of a resistance to price. Then we have price itself: A huge bunching is happening up there. And, price crossed below the Center-line a couple weeks ago and is currently trading below it, with support of the EMA(30). So we land at the Indicators and Oscillators: The MACD crossed negative weeks ago. And this time the negative indication is longer than the last two times. The Mansfield Indicator shows weakness compared to the S&P500, and the RSI has taken a dive weeks ago. All this leads me to believe that we see bigger correction in MNST. Maybe not a monstrous one, but a correction down to the L-MLH. Play it save if and don't let greed eat your brain §8-)
NASDAQ:MNSTShort
by Tr8dingN3rd
3
S&P500 on the way to the projected levelHere we are, seeing the projection I posted on my site and here becoming reality. P4 was slightly above the Center-Line. How price is falling through it. Next Target is P5. Either the Warning-Line, or the Lower-Medianline-Parallel. In between I expect a bounce up to the Centerline. Also, keep in mind that we could get a HAGOPIAN! That means, if price is not reaching the L-MLH, and pulling back above the CL, then possibilities are up for a huge move to the North. I took partial profits as shown in my last video on YT today. The rest is riding down to one of the targets. Steak & Lobster Baby! §8-) Wish you all a happy day.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by Tr8dingN3rd
GOOG - Why a 25% drop Is lurking in Google StockSometimes live can be simple. This trade is simple to me. Let's examine it: 1. Over all Indexes are not favoring the long side. 2. Price reached the Center line and get pushed back. 3. The Divergence in the RSI is significant. ...and the rest is Risk & Money management. My stop goes a couple points above the last high. But I probably play it with Options and give me at least 100 days to expiry (DTE). Simple enough? §8-) Happy trading folks.
NASDAQ:GOOGShort
by Tr8dingN3rd
COIN - Further Lows On The PlateThe last chart i COIN I showed you (see linked) was a nice play. Will this one cooperate too? Let's analyze the chart: The white Fork's CL was reached. It came down hard and fell beyond the L-MLH. We see the orange Fork, a pullback Fork. Price struggled to jump above it's CL a view days ago, and now opened and closed below it, AND below the white Forks L-MLH. Because I want to give this trade a little room, I initiated an Options Strategy by combining Short & Long Spreads. You can see in the Black Window (Graph), there is plenty of room to let it go against the initial idea. The B/E point is at the $85 short Call. When time passes and price would stay exactly where it is now, the position would create a little profit. If price is going up and stays between the horizontal line (yellow Arrow in the Graph), we profit. If price of COIN starts to fall, we make profits along the dotted white line. So, what's the benefit of this trade? Why not play it directional by just shorting COIN? 1. There's a time decay involved. My short Call-Debit-Spread generates money, every day by decaying in value. 2. There's the directional aspect. If price cooperates, then the position profits from the "right" movement AND 1. Downside? If price MOVES (it HAS to move) in the wrong direction above $85, then I loose with both positions. Luckily I can manage this options strategy when ever I want. I can open and/or close Spreads, I can add or remove Legs in favor of my position. I can add Stocks Long OR Short. Too complicated? I learned, that success does not just come from a 1-Trick trading Setup/System. If you want to survive in to-days markets, you have to learn, adapt and never stop this process. I personally like to have as many possibilities to skin my Cats as possible. I'm a Nerd, a Tr8dingN3rd and I live for what I do §8-)
NASDAQ:COINShort
by Tr8dingN3rd
FRHC - Freedom Holding Corp Topping.I read about Freedom Holding Corp in the recent Hindenburg Research paper. It sounded quite alarming, but I was considering ignoring the report for an hour and focusing on my chart analysis. Here's my analysis: First of all, this stock appears to resemble one of those Pump & Dump scams. However, let's take a closer look at the chart facts: THE FORK ...indicates that a climax might be imminent. The price has just reached the Upper-Medianline-Parallel, and the rejection is evident from the candle's wick as of today. It's important to note that this is a monthly chart, and we still have a few days to go! ZERO TO FIVE COUNT Even the 0-5 Count suggests a potential 5-High, implying that the peak might have been reached, and a reversal could be on the horizon. DIVERGENCE DIVERGENCE Yes, there are two divergences, and they are quite significant! THE SHARK CANDLE You might hear a whisper of "...come in, the water is fine" when observing the volume and upward movement in this month's candle. But be cautious – this whisper could be the sharks luring the guppies, only to devour them later. You could end up becoming a feast of "Fish & Chips" §8-) By now, you probably understand my thoughts and potential plan. I'm leaning towards a short position, but I won't let greed cloud my judgment. This will just be another trade, even though the chart analysis is aligned with Hindenburg Research's findings. I'll allocate my usual 1% - 2% of my stake for this trade. My aim is to make money, not to become a hero. I intend to continue profiting over the next 20 years (assuming I survive these tumultuous times). Always remember that markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent. So, why not savor a good trade and find contentment in a piece of the pie? §8-)
NASDAQ:FRHCShort
by Tr8dingN3rd
S&P500 -ES has reached the Top for now.This is my 100% believe, that the S&P500 has reached at least a temporary high. From here we will go down, at least to the dashed WL (Warning Line). We had the Open & Close below the Lower Medianline Parallel. But price couldn't reach the WL. So, that means we had a HAGOPIAN cooking. A HAGOPIAN means, that price will go further in the opposite direction than from where price came. And this rule was right. SP500 was going up like there is no tomorrow. Just stupid buying all the way. Today it found it's wall, banging it's had on the Lower Medianline Parallel. This was the first Test. As we know, price can create multiple tests before dropping down. I was observing price action the last couple weeks and it was Insanity at it's best. Be it from Algos or HFT's, I don't care. I just follow my rules and currently they say: <<< IT's OVA >>> So, I follow my Medianline/Fork Rules and I'm Short. The target is as of my rules, the next Line, which is the Warning Line. Interestingly it's also where price intersects with the bigger (Green) Pendulum Swing Fork. Let's have a Christmas experience §8-)
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by Tr8dingN3rd
PFE - Pfizer drop from medain line.Here's not much on the chart. But what you see is evident. The pitchforks median line is respected by price many times. And this time it's the same. But there's a reason why this time price could flush down to the L-MLH. Indexes are weaker and weaker. The first profit target for me is either the L-MLH, or the A/R (yellow) line. The Action/Reaction line is projected from above's swing range. So, there we have another one to the short side. I have more short charts than longs. However, I always try to keep my overall portfolio balanced. How? There are always industries and sectors which perform to the long side, even when markets tank. It's simple but it takes effort.
NYSE:PFEShort
by Tr8dingN3rd