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Marketcycle

Monthly Chart v. Weekly Chart May Indicate TroubleSince every dollar of price action is raising concern in either direction, let’s take an in-depth look at what’s happening with the price of Bitcoin. On the weekly chart (left), we can see the RSI is just starting to pivot and we can see the Stochastic RSI will have a cross in the coming weeks, usually indicating an uptrend. Price action has been within the same range for about three months, building healthy market structure. Then we get to the monthly chart. The monthly chart (right) is showing slowed momentum. We can see in the Stochastic RSI that the orange line is on top of the blue line – usually a bearish indication. This has me a bit concerned and considering how we’ve had ranged price action and are dropping from an RSI of around 80, it may be a warning sign of what's to come. Take a look at the green arrows on the monthly chart. Every time the purple line crosses above the yellow line, we see a price rally. Now look at the red arrows. When we see the purple line cross below the yellow line, price falls. The first red arrow you see, that was about a 70% drop. The second red arrow you see was about a 52% drop from the next pivot in momentum and a total of a 73% drop once RSI bottomed. This is when you want to have your strategy in place for if the weekly chart champions the monthly chart or if we do in fact have that RSI monthly purple line cross below the yellow and we go lower. Be ready for whatever the case may be! I'm thinking it's probable we may see a 50% drop before seeing all-time highs and the rally we've all been waiting for.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by MicheLee
1
Buying Silver at 22$ based on H.Marks Cycle theory.Risk and Time are in opposite sides of a coin. Meaning what is unknown equals risk. Markets are forward pricing mechanism, meaning when something is known - usually was already priced in (bought with risk). H.Marks theory was you should buy things in advance, when there was hypothetical most risk; in practice it would be the least risk (as shown in graph). As long as there were hedges and drivers? You cant measure future demand? Here key words were economic gravity and inflation trend (unknown). Once we saw inflation in mid-January -> we could start placing bets on silver (22$). //Highest profit comes from buying in advance (combining w/ 200dma cycle?). When something is "risk-free" or certain -> it has 50-50 chance of profit and loss in both directions?; when something is "small risk", certain has small returns. //this works as long as there is 1:5 potential.
TVC:SILVER
by citsvar
Using S5TH (spx stocks above 200dma) as an oscillator timing cycPretty cool feature. You can use the 9month moving average in S5TH (spx stocks above the 200dma) to time the market cycle. Figure out the upward momentum (with help of game theory and TNX cycle). In practice and theory peoples options should be predictable because everyone act in their self-interest, seeking safety (hypothetical riskfree) and potential. I use this as an oschilator (like RSI).. above 50% reading is bull market (because more than 50% stocks above it's 200dma). This thing points to bull market to at least like 2025 summer. Worth noting that business cycle and TNX patterns are key here.
INDEX:S5THLong
by citsvar
9
BTC - the halving is coming upG'day, Master Key for zones Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Pink = Consolidative box example (Daily) Orange = Daily Risk Warning Trading leveraged products such as Forex, commodities and CFDs, carries with it a high level of risk and so may not be suitable for every investor. Prior to trading the foreign exchange, commodity or CFD market, consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. You should never risk more than you can afford to lose. If you fail to understand or are uncertain of the risks involved, please seek independent advice and remember to conduct due diligence as criteria varies to suit the individual. Below are some of the take aways from the video - please listen again incase any detail is missed. Link to the log model back in 2022 is still strongly in play. Weekly chart Daily timeframe Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 8+ years experience in the capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Focus on investing for long term positional moves Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXIV
BNC:BLX
by LupaCapital
FOUR MARKET PHASESAll stocks go thru 4 stages, sometimes each stage can last months or even years, and it's not always easy to recognize like it is on this chart. Stage 1: Accumulation - buyers coming in stopping the down fall, and the stock starts trading sideways. (Wait) Stage 2: Markup - Bullish phase, where traders and institutions start buying the up trend. (Buy) Stage 3: Distribution - where institutions and traders start taking profits - selling. (Sell) Stage 4: Decline - shorts recognize this stage and start shorting the stock. (Avoid)
NYSE:SPOTLong
by tradepatiently
1
DKNG Market CycleAll stocks go thru 4 stages, sometimes each stage can last months or even years, and it's not always easy to recognize like it is on this chart. Stage 1: Accumulation - buyers coming in stopping the down fall, and the stock starts trading sideways. (Wait) Stage 2: Markup - Bullish phase, where traders and institutions start buying the up trend. (Buy) Stage 3: Distribution - where institutions and traders start taking profits - selling. (Sell) Stage 4: Decline - shorts recognize this stage and start shorting the stock. (Avoid)
NASDAQ:DKNGEducation
by tradepatiently
1
Market Update - September 29 2023 Bipartisan Group in Congress urges spot Bitcoin ETF approval as SEC punts: Bitcoin saw a mid-week bump as a bipartisan group of Congressmembers urged SEC chair Gensler to immediately approve a Bitcoin ETF. The SEC delayed a number of spot ETF application decisions as a US government shutdown looms. By the end of the week, bitcoin was trending higher, sitting above FWB:27K USD. MicroStrategy adds to its bitcoin coffers with purchases totalling ~$150 million: MicroStrategy, one of the largest bitcoin holders, bought 5,445 bitcoins for ~$147.3 million USD, at an average price around $27,053 USD. The purchases were made between August 1 and September 24. The company said it was considering buying even more. Leading NFT brand Pudgy Penguins to sell toys at Walmart: Pudgy Toys collection will be available in 2,000 Walmart stores across America. Each toy comes with a QR code, which once scanned gives the user access to the online virtual Pudgy World. Curve had a solid week as its founder closed out debt positions on Aave: Curve (CRV) rallied this week, trading up 17%, after Curve founder Michael Egorov paid off his entire debt position on the DeFi lending protocol Aave. ➡️ Read more here
GEMINI:BTCUSD
by Gemini
GBP JPY - Supply tap or further move in the imbalance?G'day, Master Key for zones Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Pink = Consolidative box example (Daily) Orange = Daily Risk Warning Trading leveraged products such as Forex, commodities and CFDs, carries with it a high level of risk and so may not be suitable for every investor. Prior to trading the foreign exchange, commodity or CFD market, consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. You should never risk more than you can afford to lose. If you fail to understand or are uncertain of the risks involved, please seek independent advice and remember to conduct due diligence as criteria varies to suit the individual. Below are some of the take aways from the video - please listen again incase any detail is missed. Daily Weekly Monthly The monthly controls the way the market moves - so the monthly is showing a strong supply zone. The imbalance has been tapped - however the monthly close has not indicated yet whether price will fall back to the PCP (weekly pivot) or a long term sell opportunity is present. Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 7+ years experience in the capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Focus on investing for long term positional moves Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXIII
by LupaCapital
GBP AUD - the road to 2.0+ Updates: G'day, Master Key for zones Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Pink = Consolidative box example (Daily) Orange = Daily Risk Warning Trading leveraged products such as Forex, commodities and CFDs, carries with it a high level of risk and so may not be suitable for every investor. Prior to trading the foreign exchange, commodity or CFD market, consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. You should never risk more than you can afford to lose. If you fail to understand or are uncertain of the risks involved, please seek independent advice and remember to conduct due diligence as criteria varies to suit the individual. Below are some of the take aways from the video - please listen again incase any detail is missed. Daily chart Weekly Chart Monthly Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 7+ years experience in the capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Focus on investing for long term positional moves Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXIII
by LupaCapital
2
Innovation boosts P/E ratios - P/E ration evolvesTechnological Innovation is Compounding Technological progress has huge impact on the P/E ratios of companies and the S&P 500. Technologically advanced companies naturally have a higher P/E as it's expected from them to have better future earnings. One of the ways better future earnings happen is through efficiency leaps. These efficiency leaps are important to businesses' margins but it all comes down to: better tech = more efficiency = lower costs = higher earnings = higher P/E These innovation cycles bring efficiency leaps that are linked to P/E ratio waves. We can observe in this chart that the P/E ratio has cycles that coincide with innovation cycles. There were, of course, macroeconomic factors and wars that impacted the P/E, but high P/E can be explained by innovation cycles. We can also see that each innovation cycle will have higher P/E ratios than the previous. By looking at this chart, it feels that the P/E ratios still have room to grow.
SP:SPXLong
by HenriqueCentieiro
AUD NZD - weekly shows a fresh demand to work fromG'day, Master Key for zones Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Pink = Three, Four Day Orange = Daily Risk Warning Trading leveraged products such as Forex, commodities and CFDs, carries with it a high level of risk and so may not be suitable for every investor. Prior to trading the foreign exchange, commodity or CFD market, consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. You should never risk more than you can afford to lose. If you fail to understand or are uncertain of the risks involved, please seek independent advice and remember to conduct due diligence as criteria varies to suit the individual. Below are some of the take aways from the video - please listen again incase any detail is missed. Daily chart weekly Monthly Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 6+ years experience in the capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Focus on investing for long term positional moves Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXIII
by LupaCapital
1
BTC 230127 Outlook on D chartThere's not a large amount of institutional money in BTC. Due to this, I use a loose interpretation of Wycoff paired with Elliot and Fibinocci. I feel we established a solid floor for potential Wycoff phases to play. I feel we swept the liquidity built by early buyers. While this spring was atypical, it did provide a perfect grab for sellers who believed we would continue deeper. The textbook setup was there, but the volume showed a different story. Just as much buying volume and some last-minute consolidation. This would be aggressive entry levels, and I felt there was a fake CHoCH to keep sellers fooled. This was a beautiful area for bulls to accumulate. Further proof of this came when the impulse wave began. I do believe it is too early to draw Elliot waves. I want to see this impulse finish. Should it finish here, I expect us to head back to the ST zone. If note, we continue up to the next high.
GEMINI:BTCUSDLong
by pipdrifter
USD JPY - Fresh demand zone, fresh buysG'day, Master Key for zones Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Pink = Three, Four Day Orange = Daily Risk Warning Trading leveraged products such as Forex, commodities and CFDs, carries with it a high level of risk and so may not be suitable for every investor. Prior to trading the foreign exchange, commodity or CFD market, consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. You should never risk more than you can afford to lose. If you fail to understand or are uncertain of the risks involved, please seek independent advice and remember to conduct due diligence as criteria varies to suit the individual. Below are some of the take aways from the video - please listen again incase any detail is missed. Daily Weekly Monthly Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 6+ years experience in the capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Focus on investing for long term positional moves Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXIII
by LupaCapital
1
🧠 THE CYCLE OF MARKET EMOTIONS📍 When starting a trading career, much emphasis is placed on trading strategies, technical analysis, and indicators, which is important. However, as traders gain experience, they may discover that analysis and strategy become more intuitive as they find their specialization in the market. On the contrary, trading psychology often demands significant effort from most traders. It is often overlooked that trading psychology is developed through practice. Some argue that simulated trading lacks realism and cannot adequately prepare traders for the emotional aspects of trading. However, this holds true only if traders have not yet learned to trust a tested strategy. The market emotions run the gamut from fear, despair, hope, anxiety, and even euphoria. It is so common to experience these emotions that you can actually expect them to occur in a predictable cycle. We call it the market of emotional cycle. 📌 Think of it this way: we all start out with optimism – optimism that we are going to make lots of money in the market. Over time we may have trades go in our favor and make lots of money. However, if we aren’t in tune with the normal price cycle of the market, we can ride our profits all the way back down, leading us to despair. The goal, of course, is to become a trader who learns to manage his emotions and make wise decisions. Instead of hope and fear and greed, become a process-oriented trader who can trust his judgment on the market. In the upcoming TV ideas, we will make a deep dive on each parts that effect the trader's psychology and why it does so. 👤 @QuantVue 📅 Daily Ideas about market update, psychology & indicators ❤️ If you appreciate our work, please like, comment and follow ❤️
Education
by QuantVue
2
Nasdaq -> What A Short SqueezeHello Traders, welcome to this free and educational multi-timeframe technical analysis. On the weekly timeframe you can see that over the past couple of weeks, the Nasdaq had an insane rally towards the upside of roughly 25% and is now approaching weekly resistance. Considering the fact that the overall trend is still very bullish I just do expect a short term rejection away from the $14.800 resistance area and then I definitely do expect the continuation of the bullrun. On the daily timeframe you can see that market structure is still very bullish, there is still no sign of the Nasdaq slowing down yet, so there could be the possibility that we will see more continuation towards the upside to then retest the next major previous daily resistance at the $15.200 level before we will then see a short term drop. Thank you for watching and I will see you tomorrow! You can also check out my previous analysis of this asset:
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100Long
by basictradingtv
46
Nasdaq heading towards supply G'day, Master Key for zones Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Pink = Three, Four Day Orange = Daily Risk Warning Trading leveraged products such as Forex, commodities and CFDs, carries with it a high level of risk and so may not be suitable for every investor. Prior to trading the foreign exchange, commodity or CFD market, consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. You should never risk more than you can afford to lose. If you fail to understand or are uncertain of the risks involved, please seek independent advice and remember to conduct due diligence as criteria varies to suit the individual. Below are some of the take aways from the video without log bands and with. This is a high level explanation, so the language used is to provide a blanket cover. Daily Chart Weekly Chart Monthly Chart Let me know your thoughts and analysis. Each opinion is valid where research is conducted. Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 6+ years experience in the capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Focus on investing for long term positional moves Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXIII
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by LupaCapital
History Repeats Itself with LINK?I have two different trading channels highlighted on the chart. The first predates the post-corona bull market. The second shows a long period of consolidation on the Chainlink weekly chart. The first channel lasted for a year before LINK exploded to ATH over $50. The second channel marks a year in May 2023. Chainlink has completed a full market cycle and if this period of consolidation matches the last one, we'll see some explosive moves upward from Chainlink sometime in the next six weeks. This upward move should find resistance at the 200MA, but that will also come about 2x from the current price point. Enjoy, NFA.
BINANCE:LINKUSDLong
by ChartswithChip
GBP AUD - Buying imbalance in playG'day, This is the first video analysis upload, so the length is something I would like to scale down being more concise in future, however in order to appeal to the broader market, Technicals need to be simplified. A note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon a long term trading strategy looking for Fresh Demand/Supply zones. This is tagged Neutral to the overall monthly demand in control and active long trades. Until the opportunity of a rejection of the PCP has occurred or a long opportunity from a break and retest of the trend. Overall, where an imbalance is formed and sellers have completed the changing of hands due to purchasing further increments the exhaustive sellers. Until this criteria is met - no trade is taken until reactive, break or curve is confirmed. Long term investment strategy will be looking for buys as part of the next cycle. This is an investment and not a quick move based on lower time frames. Master Key for zones Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Pink = Three, Four Day Orange = Daily Risk Warning Trading leveraged products such as Forex, commodities and CFDs, carries with it a high level of risk and so may not be suitable for every investor. Prior to trading the foreign exchange, commodity or CFD market, consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. You should never risk more than you can afford to lose. If you fail to understand or are uncertain of the risks involved, please seek independent advice and remember to conduct due diligence. Recap shots Monthly Weekly Daily Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience in the capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Focus on investing for long term positional moves Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXIII
by LupaCapital