Avalanche (AVAX)AVAX Analysis 📈🔥
Introduction
AVAX (Avalanche) is one of the most powerful and prominent cryptocurrencies, created to address scalability issues and provide fast, low-cost transactions. With its impressive progress, AVAX has carved out a special place among other altcoins. Now is the perfect time to take a closer look at AVAX's price trend and identify key entry points to capitalize on this massive move. 💥🚀
1. Technical Analysis
Key Supports:
AVAX is currently in a strong upward channel 📈. The price has bounced well from the lower trendline of the channel, which serves as a strategic support level, and continues its bullish movement. After this rise, the price entered a retracement in the 0.5 Fibonacci zone 📉. This support range (32.19 - 35.83) presents an excellent buying opportunity and could be the starting point for a powerful rally.
Key Resistances:
On the daily time frame, the red resistance zone is a significant level. Breaking through this could signal the beginning of a larger bullish trend. If AVAX breaks this resistance, the next target will be the weekly green zone, known as the PRZ (Price Reversal Zone), which includes the weekly resistance and the middle line of the upward channel. This zone acts as a safe entry trigger for investors, and its breakout could trigger a new wave of buying.
2. Price Prediction
Fibonacci Levels:
If the bullish trend continues, the price could reach the 1.272 Fibonacci level (between 73.74 - 82.67) and even the 1.618 Fibonacci level (between 108.31 - 120.16). These are long-term target levels that AVAX could potentially reach on its upward path. 🌟
RSI:
The RSI has risen well from the middle zone (49.23 - 52.83), indicating potential strength in the bullish momentum. 🔥
3. Investment Strategy
Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA):
Dollar-cost averaging is the best strategy in this market. This involves entering at key support zones like 32.19 - 35.83, and if the price rises to higher levels, gradually adding to your position with the right volume. This strategy allows you to ride the market’s movement at every stage. 💪
Proper Volume:
Never forget to monitor trading volume carefully at support and resistance levels. If market volume is insufficient, the price may easily retrace and move back towards the lower part of the channel. Therefore, entering with proper volume and conducting precise analysis is crucial for your success. 📊
4. Risk Management
Stop-Loss and Risk/Reward Ratio:
It is recommended to set your stop-loss (SL) at support levels such as 19.37 - 21.87 to prevent large losses. The risk/reward ratio should be at least 1:2, meaning the potential profit should be twice the amount of risk. 💰
Critical Scenario Prediction:
If the support at the lower part of the upward channel is broken, the price could retrace to the gray support zone (19.37 - 21.87). Always be prepared for market crises and make decisions based on them. ⚠️
5. Volume Analysis
Volume Analysis:
Trading volume is one of the most important indicators for confirming trends. If we see increased volume at support and resistance zones, it may signal the possibility of a strong price movement. Therefore, carefully monitoring volume helps confirm the validity of price movements. 🔍
Conclusion
AVAX is in a great position for growth, and with careful analysis, dollar-cost averaging, and proper risk management, investors can take full advantage of this opportunity. Pay close attention to support and resistance levels, and enter the market with suitable volume when necessary. Always stay alert to price trends and volume fluctuations to capitalize on potential profits. 💡
Marketcap
The Sandbox (SAND)SAND/USDT Analysis 📊
Recently, SAND has demonstrated significant performance, managing to shift its trajectory from a descending channel and reach the top of an ascending channel. Below is a more detailed analysis of the current situation and potential scenarios:
⚖️ Current Situation:
Breakout from the Descending Channel: SAND has exited the descending channel and is currently undergoing a pullback. This move started from the support zone (0.19 – 0.23 USD).
Current Correction: The upward wave has corrected to the 0.5 Fibonacci zone (0.45 – 0.49 USD). This level is a key zone for the continuation of the trend.
Red Resistance Zone: The price is currently facing significant resistance in the range of (0.8 – 0.99 USD). A successful close above this level is crucial for the continuation of the uptrend.
🔍 Upcoming Scenarios:
Bullish Scenario:
If the price manages to break and sustain above the red resistance zone (0.8 – 0.99 USD), the following targets become achievable:
1.618 Fibonacci: 1.41 – 1.69 USD
2.272 Fibonacci: 2.42 – 2.9 USD
2.618 Fibonacci: 3.94 – 4.98 USD
High volume entry during the breakout of the red resistance zone is essential.
Bearish Scenario:
If the price fails to break through the red resistance zone, a deeper correction is likely:
0.618 Fibonacci level: 0.4 – 0.43 USD
Green PRZ Zone: If the 0.618 Fibonacci level is lost, the price might drop to this zone, which includes daily resistance and the middle line of the channel.
⚙️ RSI Indicator:
RSI Support: The trendline connecting the RSI lows can serve as support during a price correction. The range (33.88 – 39.26) is key for RSI support.
Entry into Overbought Zone: RSI movement towards the overbought zone can push the price toward higher targets. Overextended zones (86.33 – 92.15) are accessible.
RSI Middle Line: This line could act as support and help stabilize the uptrend.
⚡️ Key Points:
Red Resistance Zone (0.8 – 0.99 USD): Sustaining above this zone is crucial for the continuation of the uptrend.
Formation of Strong Bullish Candles and Significant Volume: Strong bullish candlestick formations and a sharp increase in volume can confirm the breakout of this resistance.
Volume Consideration: High volume entry during the breakout of the resistance zone is a positive signal.
Price Behavior at the 0.5 Fibonacci Level: This level serves as the primary initial support.
PRZ Support Zone: In case of a correction, this zone (overlapping with daily resistance and the middle line of the channel) could prevent further price declines.
🔔 Summary:
The technical analysis of SAND indicates that after breaking out of the descending channel, the price is at a critical stage. A breakout above the red resistance zone (0.8 – 0.99 USD) could open the path for higher targets. However, traders should pay close attention to price behavior around key support and resistance zones and should not neglect risk management.
🟠 Practical Suggestions:
For Entering a Trade: Wait for a breakout of the red resistance zone along with high volume.
Risk Management: Diversify your capital into multiple parts and set stop-loss orders below key support levels.
Stay Updated: Given the constantly changing market conditions, staying updated with new analyses is essential.
⏰ Stay tuned for the next updates!
Uniswap (UNI)UNI/USDT Analysis 📊
UNI is one of the significant assets in the cryptocurrency world, attracting considerable attention from investors due to its high trading volume and dynamic network. This analysis aims to examine UNI's price movement within an ascending channel and highlight potential trading opportunities:
⚖️ Current Status:
Recent Correction:
After hitting the top of the ascending channel, UNI has corrected towards the 0.5 Fibonacci level (between $11.5 and $11.1), which overlaps with the channel's middle line.
This overlap is significant for traders, as it confirms the strength of support and resistance in this range.
Key Supports:
Two grey zones at the bottom of the chart are considered vital support areas:
$5.2 to $6
$3.6 to $4
These zones are recognized as strong support areas due to the multiple reactions of the price in the past. In UNI's trading history, these levels have successfully prevented sharp declines and have created high demand in these ranges. Additionally, the presence of large buyers in these areas shows their credibility.
RSI and Divergences:
The RSI is currently in an ascending channel, but it recently reversed before reaching the top of the RSI channel, forming a negative divergence. In the past, such divergences have often led to temporary corrections or even trend reversals in UNI's price. These behaviors suggest that traders should pay close attention to these signals, as they could play a key role in trading decisions.
This divergence indicates that a temporary price correction may occur or even a signal for a broader trend change.
🔎 Potential Scenarios:
Bullish Scenario:
If the price manages to stabilize above the red resistance zone (weekly resistance):
Fibonacci targets become attainable:
1.618 Fibonacci: $22 to $24
2.272 Fibonacci: $37 to $41
2.618 Fibonacci: $49 to $61
Bearish Scenario:
If the price fails to stabilize above the red resistance zone:
A correction down to the 0.618 Fibonacci level (between $9.4 and $10.3) is likely.
If the Fibonacci levels break down, the price may drop towards the bottom of the ascending channel (between $7.2 and $8).
⚡️ Key Takeaways:
Price stabilization above the red resistance zone is crucial for continuing the upward trend. Factors like increasing trading volume while attempting to break this resistance and positive news regarding UNI or the crypto market could assist in breaking this level. Indicators to watch include the formation of strong bullish candlesticks, significant volume spikes, and positive divergence in technical indicators like RSI.
Pay close attention to the negative RSI divergence, as it may signal a deeper correction.
The grey support zones will act as primary price defenses.
Traders should closely monitor price behavior near the middle line of the channel.
A strong breakout above the red resistance zone with high volume could confirm an entry signal.
🔔 Summary:
In the UNI analysis, the price behavior at the red resistance zone is key. If this resistance is broken, higher targets are expected. However, if the price fails to break this resistance, a correction towards lower Fibonacci levels and even the bottom of the channel is possible. Additionally, the RSI divergence serves as a warning for traders to follow the market's behavior more cautiously.
🔴 Practical Recommendation:
Traders should enter the market with a risk management strategy, and diversifying their capital can be highly beneficial to avoid unexpected risks. Furthermore, stay updated with analysis revisions.
⏰ Stay tuned for further updates and more detailed analysis!
TOTAL CRYPTO BULLRUN END Q1 2025The total crypto market capitalization appears to be nearing its peak, as we are now in the final stages of the larger-degree Wave 5. Within this wave, we anticipate a corrective move in the smaller subwave 4 before the final push in subwave 5. This final leg of the larger Wave 5 is projected to drive the market cap to at least $4.5 trillion.
Celer Network (CELR)CELR Analysis
🔹 Overview:
CELR is a Layer 2 solution designed to enhance blockchain transaction speed and reduce fees. The token has been trading in a long-term range between 0.009 and 0.033. After reaching the top of this range, the price has started a corrective move to the downside.
🔹 Key Levels:
1️⃣ Support Levels:
🔸 Fibonacci 0.382: 0.020 - 0.019
🔸 Fibonacci 0.5: 0.018 - 0.017
🔸 Fibonacci 0.618: 0.016 - 0.015
🔸 Range Bottom: 0.0105 - 0.009
2️⃣ Resistance Levels:
🔸 Range Top and Weekly Resistance: 0.03038 - 0.03590
🔸 Target 1: 0.068 - 0.081 (Fibonacci 1.618 level)
🔸 Target 2: 0.14 - 0.19 (Fibonacci 2.618 level)
🔹 Volume and Entry Signals:
🔸 Volume Trend: Increased volume at the weekly resistance level is a strong indicator for a breakout move toward higher targets.
🔸 RSI (Relative Strength Index):
A breakout above the RSI overbought zone could confirm a strong upward trend.
Holding key RSI support levels can act as an early signal for price recovery.
🔹 Scenarios:
✅ Bullish Scenario:
If the price breaks above the red resistance zone at 0.033 - 0.035 and holds with strong volume, it is likely to move toward Fibonacci targets at 0.068 - 0.081 and 0.14 - 0.19.
⚠️ Bearish Scenario:
If the price fails to hold Fibonacci support levels, we may see further downward movement toward the range bottom at 0.0105 - 0.009. A breakdown below this level could trigger deeper price declines.
🔹 Conclusion:
📊 Entry Zones:
Gradual Entries: At support levels 0.020, 0.018, 0.015
Safe Entry: Upon a confirmed breakout above the red resistance with high volume.
📉 Stop-Loss: A break below the 0.015 - 0.013 range signals a potential invalidation of bullish setups.
🔑 Recommendation:
Given CELR’s low market cap, this project carries a high investment risk. Proper risk management and position sizing are crucial.
🔍 Confirmation Signals:
✅ Volume increase during breakout above resistance
✅ Positive reaction to Fibonacci support levels
✅ RSI holding support or breaking into overbought zones
Final Note: Always manage risk and approach trades with a clear plan. The crypto market’s volatility can be both an opportunity and a challenge. Stay disciplined and aim for consistent, reasonable gains. 🚀
Symbotic Hypergrowth? $850 Price TargetOverview
Symbotic Inc. is an A.I. and robotics automation company based in Wilmington, Massachusetts that is looking to increase the ability for companies to keep up with growing demand. To do this, they utilize artificial intelligence software to maintain records and warehouse organization with the assistance of SKU numbers. Autonomous robots then account for, store, and retrieve items in a fraction of the time that it would take a human being. Symbotic's mission is to increase supply capabilities through the symbiotic relationship of artificial intelligence and robots. Its origins trace back to 2007, before it was known as Symbotic, and the company went public in 2022 ( NASDAQ:SYM ).
Call it FOMO, but I think Symbotic Inc. has the potential of becoming a hypergrowth stock. I built my own fundamentals tracker to get a pulse on the tech company's vitals and, while it still is not a profitable company, it looks like it's in the early stages of becoming so. The fundamentals for Symbotic provide me the confidence to invest despite the presence of red flags which led me to performing a deep dive. My price target for Symbotic Inc. is $850 with a projected timeline before 2030.
What I Don't Like
SYM has lost nearly 60% in value since July 2023 from a high of $64.15 to its current share price of $26.87. If you look up Symbotic Inc. on a search engine then you will also see that there are numerous law firms attempting to build class action lawsuits. The headlines can't help but to sow distrust by utilizing strong statements such as "misleading investors" and "inflated revenue" within their subjects. Within the last few weeks Symbotic had to file a delayed annual report due to self-identified accounting errors within their balance sheets. Also, if you dig through their filings, you will find that Symbotic Inc. was born from a deal with SVF Investment Corp which, according to the filings, was headquartered in the Cayman Islands.
I can only assume that the business dealings with SVF Investment Corp were to facilitate equity financing and an expedited public launch for SYM. From my findings, SoftBank Group Corp ( TSE:9984 ) is an investment conglomerate and the parent company to multiple subsidiaries. You guessed it, it is affiliated with SVF Investment Corp which functions as a "blank check company" for SoftBank. In my limited knowledge, this translates as a way for SoftBank to inject a substantial investment into the company that is now known as Symbotic Inc. No matter how savvy they may have been to launch Symbotic Inc., business deals that originate in the Cayman Islands typically raise one's eyebrows.
What I Do Like
Symbotic Inc. seems to have a pretty solid vision for global expansion and has attracted some significant institutional investors such as SoftBank, Vanguard, BlackRock, and Morgan Stanley to name a few. In fact, according to the NASDAQ site, 282 institutional investors hold 82% of Symbotic Inc.'s Class A Common Stock. Symbotic Inc. was founded by Richard "Rick" Cohen who currently serves as the CEO and is a legacy to the Cohen family who founded C&S Wholesale Grocers. Symbotic's technology is used by C&S Wholesale Grocers which is one of the largest privately held companies in the United States.
Symbotic and SoftBank have partnered on a separate venture known as GreenBox which is meant to deliver automated warehouses made possible by Symbotic's hardware and software. According to the company's site, GreenBox is supplying warehouses as a service to consumers. With an increase in online shopping, I believe that Symbotic is both seeing and filling a need in an industry that its founder is very familiar with. I can also envision Symbotic spreading its reach internationally which helps fuel my massive price target. Megacap stocks need to have a global influence and extend across industries, which Symbotic appears to be preparing for.
Fundamentals
Right now, Symbotic Inc. is in its early stages and is bringing in a negative income which makes it a risky investment. However, the company's total revenue has increased by 200% from 2022-Q4 to 2024-Q4; the gross profit has also increased by 147% in the same timeframe. Symbotic's net income has revealed consistent losses since 2022, but the 2024 annual report had the smallest loss on record at a negative $84.7M which is a 39% improvement from 2022 and a 59% improvement from 2023. No matter which way you cut it, the company is still absorbing annual losses so it will be important to keep an eye on improvements and deficiencies to identify any consistent trends.
NASDAQ:SYM has 585,963,959 total outstanding shares according to the 2024 Annual Report published at the beginning of December. This is a far cry from the 106M outstanding shares reported on some financial websites and even here on TradingView. From my findings, around 100M of Symbotic's shares are Class A Common Stocks and the remaining 485M are Class V Common Stocks. My focus is on the market capitalization which is a tool that I like to use when establishing long-term price targets. For Symbotic, which has the potential for global reach and use across multiple industries, I think it's reasonable to achieve a market capitalization of $500B.
Price Target
With the current number of outstanding shares at a market cap of $500B, this would place Symbotic's share price at $853. This type of growth would turn a $1,000 investment today into $31,710 at the projected target price; a whopping 3,000% return. HOWEVER, a lot has to happen to make this come to fruition. One thing I would like to see, in addition to profitability, is for Symbotic to begin buying back its own stock.
It's become my investing philosophy that companies who believe they are undervalued will buyback their shares while companies that believe they are overvalued will issue new shares. Symbotic's total outstanding shares have increased by 5.8% since its annual report at the end of 2022. I think that my philosophy is best tailored to established companies so it is possible that Symbotic could be an exception. Because the company is so new, it may need to issue more shares to generate enough capital to stay afloat while its roots set.
100,000$ per coin - BTC heading to 4th HalvingBITSTAMP:BTCUSD BINANCE:BTCUSD CME:BTC1! COINBASE:BTCUSD
What’s Bitcoin?
Bitcoin is a decentralized digital currency that operates on a network of computers, eliminating the need for intermediaries or central authorities. It was introduced in 2009 by an anonymous individual or group known as Satoshi Nakamoto, who outlined the concept in a white paper describing a peer-to-peer electronic cash system. Since then, Bitcoin has emerged as the leading and most valuable cryptocurrency globally, with a market capitalization exceeding $580 billion as of October 2023.
A notable characteristic of Bitcoin is its limited supply of 21 million coins, a threshold estimated to be reached around the year 2140. The creation of new bitcoins is regulated through a process called mining, which involves solving complex mathematical problems using specialized hardware and software. Miners compete to discover valid solutions that meet a specific difficulty level, adjusted approximately every two weeks to maintain an average block time of 10 minutes. The miner who successfully finds a valid solution for each block is rewarded with freshly minted bitcoins and transaction fees.
As of October 2023, the Bitcoin network has witnessed the mining of 813,378 blocks, with a current reward of 6.25 bitcoins per block.
Key Insights on Bitcoin's Price:
Recently, the mining of the 19.5 millionth bitcoin increased the circulating supply to 93% of the total. Additionally, a logarithmic regression analysis known as the rainbow chart illustrates the historical path of Bitcoin's price movement. This cyclic behaviour can be attributed to several factors:
Bitcoin tends to exhibit an overall bullish trend due to its limited supply and the halving of coins entering circulation approximately every four years. Historically, the Bitcoin halving has been a significant catalyst for price movements as it influences the supply-demand balance. The halving reduces the rate of new bitcoins being introduced into circulation while demand typically remains steady or grows over time. This creates a supply shock that often drives the price upward, particularly before and after the halving event.
Each halving period encompasses the mining of 210,000 blocks and exhibits distinct phases. The bullish phase spans from the first block to the 70,000th block, followed by a bearish phase from the 70,001st block to the 140,000th block, and finally a sideways phase from the 140,001st block to the 210,000th block. As previously mentioned, the halving diminishes the inflation rate of bitcoin and preserves its scarcity.
Bitcoin holds great influence over the entire cryptocurrency market due to its dominant market capitalization. This dominance follows a cyclical pattern, with the market share falling below 40% during bearish phases (after mining more than 140,000 blocks) and rising to around 70% during bullish phases.
During each era (between two halving periods), Bitcoin experiences an average drawdown of 80%.
Current Analysis:
We are currently in the third halving era, which commenced on May 11th, 2020, specifically within the equilibrium phase. The intersection of the mining of the 210,000th block and the lows of the logarithmic regression suggests a value of $30,000 USD per bitcoin.
The next Bitcoin halving is expected to take place in April 2024, at block number 840,000. This event will reduce the block reward from 6.25 bitcoins to 3.125 bitcoins, consequently lowering the annual inflation rate from approximately 1.8% to 0.9%. As a halving typically ushers in a bullish phase, it is predicted that the price of bitcoin will surpass $100,000.00 during this era.
Technical Analysis Using the MVRV Indicator:
One of the tools that can help investors and traders assess the value and potential of bitcoin is the MVRV ratio, which stands for market value to realized value. The MVRV ratio compares the current market capitalization of bitcoin (the total value of all coins at their current price) with its realized capitalization (the total value of all coins at their last moved price). The MVRV ratio can indicate whether bitcoin is overvalued or undervalued relative to its historical average cost basis.
The MVRV ratio can also be used to identify periods of extreme market sentiment, such as euphoria or panic. When the MVRV ratio is very high (above 4), it means that bitcoin is trading far above its realized value, implying that most holders are sitting on large unrealized profits and may be tempted to sell. This can signal a market top or a bubble territory. When the MVRV ratio is very low (below 1), it means that bitcoin is trading far below its realized value, implying that most holders are sitting on large unrealized losses and may be reluctant to sell. This can signal a market bottom or a buying opportunity.
As of October 2023, the MVRV ratio of bitcoin is about 2.110, which is slightly above its long-term average of 2. This suggests that bitcoin is fairly valued and not in a danger zone. The MVRV ratio has been trending up since November 9th 2022, when it reached a low of 0.75, indicating a recovery in the market sentiment and the lowest price of the 3rd Halving era. As we are far from the overbought level of 4, this suggests that there is still room for further growth in the price of bitcoin.
(These illustrations are just for educational purposes and are not financial advices).
Sources:
1. trustwallet.com
2. ieeexplore.ieee.org
3. nber.org
4. buybitcoinworldwide.com
5. bitinfocharts.com
6. nerdwallet.com
7. investopedia.com
8. buybitcoinworldwide.com
9. kitco.com
10. coinwarz.com
11. datawallet.com
12. blockchain.com
13. lookintobitcoin.com
14. bing.com
15. bitcoinmagazine.com
16. stopsaving.com
17. decentrader.com
18. trustwallet.com
19. bitinfocharts.com
20. nber.org
21. buybitcoinworldwide.com
22. cryptonews.com
23. finbold.com
24. inferse.com
25. buybitcoinworldwide.com
26. blockchain.com
Venus (XVS)XVS (Venus) Coin is one of the prominent projects in the field of decentralized finance (DeFi) that has significant growth potential due to its low market cap. This analysis highlights the following points:
📊 Comprehensive Analysis of XVS
🔍 Overview of the Analysis:
Formation of PRZ (Potential Reversal Zone):
A key area consisting of the weekly resistance and ascending channel ceiling, which could determine the continuation of the price trend. Breaking this zone is crucial for further upward movement.
🕰 Technical Analysis:
Current Status (Short-term):
In the daily timeframe, the price is currently testing the daily resistance (yellow zone). It is highly likely that this resistance will break, leading the price to the PRZ area.
Significance of PRZ:
The PRZ, formed by the weekly resistance and ascending channel ceiling, acts as a critical decision point. Breaking this zone could trigger a powerful and sharp upward movement.
🎯 Price Targets:
First Target: The green resistance area, aligned with the 1.618 Fibonacci level.
Second Target: The all-time high, coinciding with the 2.618 Fibonacci level.
📌 Key Takeaways:
Breaking the daily resistance (yellow area) in the short term is likely to guide the price toward the PRZ.
Breaking the PRZ (weekly resistance and the ascending channel ceiling) is essential for sustaining the upward trend.
Cosmos (ATOM)📊 Comprehensive Analysis of ATOM
🔍 Overview: ATOM, after experiencing a significant decline, entered a downward channel with a slight slope toward its weekly support level. With notable trading volume entering, it managed to rise strongly above the weekly support zone and the bottom of the descending channel. Currently, it is moving toward the top of the descending channel, where a critical weekly resistance (red zone) lies, with the possibility of a correction at this level.
🕰 Technical Analysis:
🔸 Current Status:
The price is approaching the top of the descending channel and the weekly resistance (red zone).
For buyers who entered at the channel's bottom, partial profit-taking in the red zone is a reasonable strategy.
🔸 Key Levels for Entry and Price Targets:
Entry: Confirmation of price stabilization above the weekly resistance (red zone) is essential for re-entry.
Targets: Breaking this resistance could push the price toward the yellow and green zones.
🔸 RSI Status:
If the weekly RSI enters the Overbought zone, the likelihood of breaking the weekly resistance increases.
This breakout may lead to a sharp price movement upwards, with the potential to reach Over-Extended levels.
🎯 Price Levels:
Short-Term Target: Weekly resistance (red zone).
Mid-Term Target: Yellow zone after breaking the resistance.
Long-Term Target: Green zone and Over-Extended levels.
💡 Summary:
Bullish Scenario: Breaking and stabilizing above the weekly resistance could lead to sharp upward movement toward higher targets.
Bearish Scenario: If the resistance is not broken, a price correction toward lower supports (such as the middle line of the channel) is possible.
📌 Recommendation:
Prioritize risk and capital management.
Confirmation of resistance breakout with high volume and appropriate RSI conditions is crucial.
Total Market Cap 2 and Total 3 + USDT.D Market WarningsIn this video, I briefly review the USDT.T bear market signals I covered in a recent video below.
But also noticing that Total 2, Total 3 and also the OTHERS are either hitting or very close to hitting their all time highs from the prior market cycle in 2021, which was the start of the Bear.
I do think we see more profit taking Monday afternoon into Tuesday through Thursday which is projected Dec 5th market cycle low from a cycles perspective.
Notice how the alts have been flying the last few days, and this weekend -- setting us up for major profit taking tomorrow and to fool all the new crypt tourists into buying the highs.
Protection capital here IMO and wait to buy back lower.
Let me know your thoughts, and please like the video if you found value.
- Brett
PS> My other Bear Market indicator fired today when I went out for Italian at my favorite local restuarant (sneaking in right at closing time as usual b/c I work 14 hour days)... and the bus-boy saw my Bitcoin hat -- and starting giving me crypto tips!
This is like the 'Taxi Cab' indicator of 1999, when the cabbie started giving me stock recommendations ... I had a feeling the top was in!
ALT Season AheadHey,
I wanted to share some thoughts on the current market dynamics and what I’m observing in BTC dominance.
If you’re invested in ALT coins—especially legacy coins like ETH, XRP, or even RUNE—you might feel like your returns are lagging significantly. The truth is, they are. Let me break down the relationship between ALTs and BTC dominance to give you some context.
I use TOTAL3 and BTC dominace charts, check them out.
There’s a strong inverse correlation between BTC Dominance and TOTAL3. Historically, when BTC Dominance trends downward, ALTs begin to outperform, experiencing substantial growth relative to BTC. This shift often marks the period when ALT coins start “shining.”
Interestingly, during the last cycle, BTC didn’t peak at the height of BTC Dominance. Instead, BTC peaked after ALTs had a massive rally, during a period when BTC Dominance ranged in the 40-50% zone.
Currently, BTC Dominance remains in a strong uptrend with no clear signs of slowing. For this reason, before heavily shifting into ALTs or taking profits on BTC longs, I’m waiting for a momentum shift in BTC Dominance. Even a simple trendline break to the downside could signal that capital is flowing out of BTC and into ALTs. This doesn’t necessarily mean BTC will lose value; in fact, it might continue climbing. However, it does indicate a tipping point where ALTs could begin to significantly outpace BTC, offering much greater upside potential.
That said, it’s important to consider the growing institutional interest in BTC. Unlike retail investors, institutions are less likely to pivot into ALTs (except for ETH, which benefits from its status as a leading crypto ETF). As a result, BTC Dominance could climb past 70% and may not see a sharp decline even when ALT coin momentum begins.
When the next altseason might happen?One usually refers to altcoins and mems flying high when talking about big profits and pumps. So, when the next alt season could happen? To answer this question, analysts usually examine ETH and the Crypto Total Market Cap (excluding BTC and ETH) charts to make a prediction. Moreover, I think it is worth analyzing the Dominance of altcoins (excluding BTC and ETH) as well. I already analyzed the ETH before and updating it periodically, so let's look at the Crypto Total Market Cap.
When looking at the Total Market Cap chart, it is evident that there was a downtrend in which lower lows were made one after another. Recently, in March 2023, a higher high and a higher low were made; a sign of a possible reversal. But, two higher highs and two higher lows are needed, at least, for the reversal confirmation. Furthermore, the value/price of the Total Market Cap must not breach the recent higher low. Based on the technical analysis, two possible scenarios can play out that are drawn on the chart.
$TOTAL totally streched to upside; up or down?TOTAL is totally streched to upside; it is not only derivating but is also on a dangerous wedge, signaling a very possible drop (purple arrow down), at least to touch:
1- an important Fibonacci Circle (marked on red)
2- the support of TOTAL all-times-high (horizontal blue dotted line)
3- old May 2021 support of TOTAL all-times-high (horizontal pink dotted line)
4- ceiling of ghost channel from the last few months of downtrend (yellow channel)
5- volume weighted support line (black line)
6- possible touch on 200 EMA (green strong line)
You can see also that first pannel is about to show a crossing of RSI lines
Second pannel shows a red dot sell signal on Detonator B
Third pannel shows also a crossing down on Detonator C
MACD is losing strengh
We don´t know yet if the market still has bullets to go to the upside, showed by the thin purple arrow, but it is a possibility, as target coincides with very important (years back) trend line of resistence
BITCOIN - the road map !We will explain the market situation and what is happening in the currencies in this post
And why you should not sell even at 80k or 120k
This is the most important post I will write and share with you. I will return to it in the future to prove to you the truth of what I am saying.
As you know, 67-71k have accumulated very heavily and all the bears have gathered there and formed massive supply areas
Therefore, market makers are emptying this area and absorbing the existing supply, so you see the currencies falling or not moving because the whales are withdrawing liquidity from the currencies and directing it to buy Bitcoin
Also, professional traders and smart money will not enter at resistances and supply areas. They are waiting for a breakout of 73k and confirmation to move
Therefore, you see this great stagnation in the market and on all alternative currencies
Of course, there is something called floating supply, meaning that Bitcoin will rise to 80-90-100 thousand, and there are still bears selling strongly.
After breaking 100 thousand, selling will stop, bears will surrender, and Bitcoin's Dominance will stop rising completely. It is expected to stop at 60-61%.
After that, we will see levels of 130k -140k, and a correction of approximately 20-28% will occur for Bitcoin, but not for currencies, because a violent collapse will begin to acquire Bitcoin's dominance and transfer liquidity from Bitcoin to currencies. After that, Bitcoin will begin to rebound and currencies will begin to explode.
It is normal to see every week double and double and explosions everywhere, and currencies within a few months will hit 10x-20x-30x-50x-100x for each currency and its performance and strength. Here we are in the end of the bull market and at the end of the ALT season.
And you must know intuitively that this is what happens now is positive behavior.
Because we know that explosions don't happen in currencies, madness, FOMO, and memes explosions except when Bitcoin is close to achieving a peak and we all saw the March peak...
in march peak Currencies in some sectors such as AI and memes rose from 3x to 50x so Imagine the if new ATH IN BTC then
BEST regards Ceciliones🎯
ZKSync: Poised for a Major Breakout in the Coming Cycle!ZKSync is rapidly positioning itself as one of the top Layer 2 solutions for Ethereum, offering scalability, lower fees, and faster transactions key ingredients for the next wave of blockchain adoption. As Ethereum’s congestion issues persist, Layer 2 protocols like ZKSync are becoming essential, and with its zero-knowledge rollups and strong utility, it is set to outperform many major coins.
In the coming cycle, I believe ZKSync has the potential for significant growth. With its solid technicals and increasing adoption, ZKSync is well-positioned to experience a breakout. Keep your eyes on this one it could be a top performer in the next market phase.
Altcoin Market Breaking Out: Bull-Flag!Altcoins have been steadily losing value against BTC ever since the March top. However, TOTAL3 (total marketcap minus BTC+ETH marketcap) has finally broken out of a 6-month bearish channel pattern, making it a successful bull-flag break out.
It's too early to call for a definitive continuation of the trend, but at least a major long-term pattern has changed as of this week.
For now, I'm hoping for a move towards the yellow line, being the 2024 top. With a BTC Dominance at 57.5%, it would most likely lead to a new BTC all-time high if the altcoin market reaches the 2024 top.
Potentially exciting times ahead!
CRYPTO MARKET CAP NEARS 200W MA! PRE-CRASH VIBES?Hello, fellow traders! Today, I'd like to share an intriguing analysis of the Crypto Total Market Cap chart, highlighting potential areas of reversal and target zones that could shape the market's direction in the coming months.
By examining different timeframes, I've discovered an interesting scenario unfolding on the weekly chart. The price action in 2024 appears to be forming a downward channel , reminiscent of a pattern we saw back in 2019 . This analysis could provide valuable insights for anticipating future market movements and identifying trading opportunities.
In 2019 , the crypto market experienced a significant advance in Q1 and Q2 before entering a declining channel. Many of us remember what happened next: Bitcoin started moving upwards, pulling the total market cap out of the channel. This movement coincided with the onset of the COVID-19 outbreak in China, leading to a failed rally . It wasn't until February 2020 that we witnessed signs of a market turning point, followed by a substantial crash during the global lockdown.
Fast forward to today, we're noticing similar patterns:
$2.5 Trillion Level: This level mirrors the failed rally point of 2020 and serves as a critical resistance area. A break above could signal bullish momentum.
$1.0 Trillion Level: This zone might act as a potential "surprise" support level in the event of unexpected market downturns.
Additionally, the 200-week moving average is acting as a significant support line. We might see the price spike below this average briefly during high volatility but expect it to recover above shortly after.
What are your thoughts on this setup? Do you think we're heading towards a failed rally similar to 2019, or are we on the brink of setting new all-time highs? Could external factors influence the market as they did back then? Share your insights and let's discuss!
Remember, the crypto market is highly unpredictable. Protecting your capital through proper risk management is crucial. A fundamental strategy is to risk no more than 1% of your capital per trade.
If you found this analysis helpful, please like and follow for more in-depth market insights. Stay tuned for future posts where we'll explore emerging trends and potential trading strategies. Happy trading!
Understanding Crypto Market CapHello, Traders!
Navigating the cryptocurrency market can be a thrilling ride 🎢, but it's also a maze of data and trends. One crucial metric that helps guide investors through this complexity is Market Capitalization or MCAP. So, if you’ve ever wondered how to make sense of all the numbers and signals, understanding the cryptocurrency market cap is a great place to start. 👇🏻
What Is Market Cap in Crypto?
What does Market Cap mean in crypto?Market Capitalization (MCAP) estimates the total value of a cryptocurrency asset or the entire cryptocurrency market. It’s not just about a single price tag. Think of it as a way to gauge a coin’s overall market presence and potential.
How Is Market Capitalization Calculated?
The formula for calculating MCAP is straightforward: MCAP = Current Price × Number of Tokens in Circulation.
For instance, if Bitcoin (BTC) is priced at $70,500 and there are 19,666,425 BTC in circulation, the MCAP would be 70,500 × 19,666,425 = $1,386,482,962,500
But there’s also the Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV), which assumes all possible coins are in circulation. For Bitcoin, with a maximum supply of 21 million BTC, the FDV calculation would be 70,500 × 21,000,000 = $1,480,500,000,000
Why Is Market Cap Important in Crypto?
MCAP is more than just a number! It reflects a cryptocurrency’s stability, market position, and growth potential.
Stability: High MCAP cryptocurrencies are like large ships—they handle market waves more smoothly 🌊, tend to be less volatile, and offer more stability.
Growth Potential : While large-cap cryptos are stable, small-cap ones offer high-growth opportunities. It’s all about balancing risk ⚖️reward. So, make sure to DYOR first.
Liquidity: Assets with large MCAPs usually have higher liquidity, meaning they can be traded easily without affecting their price too much.
Categories of Cryptocurrencies by Market Cap
Small-Cap Cryptos: These are typically newer or lesser-known coins/tokens with market caps ranging from a few million to a few billion dollars. They can be highly volatile and risky but offer growth potential.
Mid-Cap Cryptos: These have market caps between a few billion and tens of billions of dollars. They provide a balance between risk and growth potential.
Large-Cap Cryptos: These are well-established assets with market values in the tens of billions. They are more stable and widely accepted. Examples include Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH).
Factors Affecting Market Capitalization
MCAP isn’t static. Various factors influence it:
Tokenomics: A coin's supply and demand dynamics affect its MCAP. Limited supply with growing demand can drive up prices.
Regulation: Legal developments can impact market cap, either boosting or dampening investor interest.
Market Sentiment: Investor mood, reflected in metrics like the Fear and Greed Index, can influence market cap fluctuations.
Technological Advances: Innovations in blockchain technology and new applications can boost a coin’s market cap.
Conclusion
Market Capitalization (MCAP) is a key metric for evaluating a cryptocurrency's value and stability, yet it is only one piece of a broader analytical puzzle. While MCAP provides crucial insights into a cryptocurrency's market position, it should not be the exclusive factor guiding your investment decisions. For a more detailed analysis, consider implementing additional indicators such as Volume and Circulating Supply, which are available on analytical platforms.