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$BTC 1D - Fibonacci tools and Gann Fans to identify supportI've noticed that the current downtrend of $BTC can be either two things: a downtrending channel or a falling wedge. I obviously prefer the latter, but I cannot chart a falling wedge that I like. All the tools used are based on the Fibonacci Sequence, sans the Ganns fans. I usually use indicators such as overlaid indicators and RSI/OBV, but I felt like all these were unneeded since the drawing tools I will be using create their own supports. Right now is yet another crucial time for $BTC. If we break the 38.20% line without any hammer candles, I am expecting a free fall to the 50% retracement, $5,600. I want to believe this is our true bottom. But if we look back to MtGox, it even retraced further under the 50% after a another Fibonacci time zone begun. Spooky! Because our value exploded in 2017, the Fibonacci circle cannot provide support like it does for stocks; instead, we end up with extremely high volatility and a ~$5,600 bottom until we can breach the next Fibonacci circle line. Explanation of the tools used. This may be skipped or critiqued. Fibonacci circle: This was drawn from trough to peak (~$930 -> ~$1950); As you can see, the inner circles were used as supports and resistances; however, because the value jumped so quickly, we aren't afforded the luxury of circle support, only FIbonacci retacement levels. This means we can face many rejections back down to the previous support level, whether that be ~$8,500 or ~$5,600. Fibonacci Retracement: Throgh to peak, essential tool of traders. Predefines future supports and resistances; can be used to find bottoms or ATHs. Fibonacci Time Zone: 8 day interval between 0 and 1. I lined it up wth major market movement, with its starting point in a period of high voliatility, Fibonacci Circle : trough to peak/ till based on the fib sequence; each upcming line is resistance, while the lind before it support. Gann Fans I verified they were 45 degrees and didn't move the scale afterwards. 1x1 lines were not held, looks like the 1x2 on the top Gann will be new support. Looks good for going side ways at$ $8,000 for now Volume: A simple way to determine market action, sentiment, and trend. Thoughts?
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by NeoButane
1
Litecoin Arithmetic vs Log ScaleNote: Both of these charts are linked, so the coordinates for the lines shown above are the same. Note the difference between arithmetic scale (left) and log scale (right) in terms of trend line support (black & blue lines). LTC has been consolidating in a nice bullish flag for about a month and these trend lines could be valuable in determining if there is a continued move downward or if there will be a breakout. I believe the blue line provides much stronger trend support and LTC may retrace to it before a breakout. If the a breakout from the consolidation pattern we are in is confirmed via volume, it is possible that this line will provide future support for retracements. Just a friendly reminder that while arithmetic is typically used when charting, logarithmic scales provide a great alternative method to charting, especially when a stock/currency/etc. has experienced a move greater than 20%.
BITFINEX:LTCUSDLong
by myfye13
A Coinbase add and the case for $10 XRP (Log Scale)So im starting to hear a lot of bold price predictions for xrp in the wake of everyone anticipating a coinbase add. Adding the largest US-based exchange with an XRP/USD pair would be huge for this coin; there are few reliable ways to convert USD directly to XRP and should coinbase provide this, it could be huge for XRP. Additionally, XRP has several hopeful other things going for it right now: potential bank integration and global adoption. They do have a 100B coin supply, but about 60% of the supply is "locked up" at the moment. I am NOT posting this chart because I think XRP is a buy right now, I am posting because if you're still holding from way down low (from >$0.50) it is probably worth continuing to hold a little to see what happens by the end of March. Truth be told, I doubt my hands are strong enough to hold through $5, but maybe yours are. Either way, this will be a fun chart to track. Good luck trading and as always, this is not investment advice.
BITSTAMP:XRPUSD
by Brodie_MT
19
3.37$ possible on the log chartThe log chart shows me that we've still got momentum upwards. RSI has given us space again. Boillinger bands squeeze and not much of a retrace on this step. Short term trendlines have not been broken. I think we have a clear line to 3.37$. I am using the logarithmic scale here as the lines between peaks and bottoms looks much crisper. A channel if you zoom out. This makes me think the chart is best interpreted with a log chart. Fib levels agree with me on this. Yellow lines are previous channel lines on the normal chart.
BITSTAMP:XRPUSDLong
by Sonace
6
BTC BASICS everyone should know: The Log Scale.Again, everyone should be aware of the essential trend lines for BTC . I've published the shorter term, more aggressive TL for BTC in another post. Three things to take away from this post: -btc is best viewed on a logarithmic scale . When people look at the linear chart of btc and see a vertical line up...yes, that is scary because it suggests extreme downside. It makes much more sense looking at it this way. -we can deviate VERY far north of the trendline . That is FOMO. As you can see pre Mt Gox. Don't think because we are so far above the trend line you should SHORT btc . Defintely, definitely not. -we can conceivably fall down below $2k btc again and still be in an overall uptrend. That would still be a very bad situation and i prefer it never happen. But actual breaking of this multi year trendline would be very, very bad.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by whoisthelorax
4
The Arithmetic Bull vs The Log BearThe bearish primary degree count (on log scale) still satisfies more factors (i.e. volume trends, sentiment, proportionality, distance, time) than the bullish cycle degree count (on arithmetic scale) and I consider it the higher probability scenario. Log scale shows that the rally to new all-time highs is not as big as it seems. Arithmetic scale shows how steep the trajectory has been, most comparable to the bubble rally to all-time highs previously. What followed was a two year decline which is inline with my big picture outlook that BTCUSD is working its way through a cycle degree expanding flat correction. A similar two year decline to at least the 200 level would satisfy this count perfectly. At intermediate or minor degree a fourth wave is unfolding and we should expect a fifth wave rally which may be taking off as I type this. Once this high is in place, the next major move is a correction. Cycle degree wave IV or primary degree wave ((C)) of cycle II.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Kappy
Long-term viewThis bearish outlook is due to applying a logarithmic scale, resulting in a rising wedge pattern which is confirmed by the ATR divergence and which has been breached, signalling the start of a new downtrend or simply a correction. If June's hanging man is confirmed, next target will probably be the bottom of the channel, but if price continues to decline and breach the channel, it will then confim the development of a wave 3 and it's corresponding long-term bear market. If price invalidates the hanging man and keeps rising making a new all time high, then the price action since May 2015 was only a correction and the market will probably resume the uptrend. For now, I think one should assume the trend is down.
FX:SPX500Short
by mikeoakster
10