Leading Diagonal Starts a Large Zig ZagIn the world of technical analysis, patterns play a crucial role in forecasting the future movements of a financial instrument. One such pattern is the leading diagonal, which can signify the start of a more extensive zig zag formation. In this article, I will delve into the recent price movements of the S&P 500 Index (SPX) and how a leading diagonal pattern has emerged as the beginning of a large zig zag formation. I will also discuss the significance of a leading diagonal in a zig zag formation and how it can serve as a valid trading signal.
Leading Diagonal Pattern in SPX
SPX recently witnessed a move that started around 3808 and peaked at nearly 4040. This price movement, characterized by a series of higher highs and higher lows, is indicative of a leading diagonal pattern. As the name suggests (leading), this pattern often appears at the beginning of a zig zag formation and is a valid formation within this context.
A leading diagonal is a five-wave structure, where each wave consists of three sub-waves. In the case of the SPX, we can observe this five-wave structure, which is now complete. The recent drop was expected, and the 4020 level has been a point of interest for some time. The index experienced an overthrow of this leading diagonal, and we are now below the lower trendline of the pattern.
Current Market Situation and Future Projections
At present, SPX is experiencing a small relief rally after falling below the lower trendline of the leading diagonal pattern. This indicates that bears are currently exhausted, and late short-sellers from yesterday are feeling the impact of time decay on their positions. As we move forward, we can expect a further move to the downside in the coming days or week, likely followed by a rally that takes the index back above the 4000 mark (potentially reaching the 4043-4050 range).
It is essential to keep an eye on the 61.8% retracement level, which stands at 4043. This level could be reached within the next two weeks and coincides with the next full moon, a period that I believe may present unique opportunities. You should be on the lookout for a potentially lucrative short position if the index reaches these levels.
At this time, I am not projecting any further out than the next few weeks, as the current primary path suggests a move back towards the 61.8% retracement level, followed by a potential short opportunity. However, it is crucial to keep in mind that market conditions can change rapidly, and you must remain vigilant and adaptable in their strategies.
The recent leading diagonal pattern observed in the SPX serves as a valid formation, signifying the beginning of a larger zig zag pattern. By monitoring the 61.8% retracement level at 4043 and the next full moon, traders can identify potential short opportunities in the coming weeks. It is crucial to remain vigilant, as market conditions can change rapidly, and traders must be prepared to adapt their strategies accordingly. This analysis serves as a guide for understanding the current market situation and identifying potential entry points, but it is essential to conduct your research and evaluate your risk tolerance before making any investment decisions.
