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Keylevels

BTCUSD: Bears Persist At Short Squeeze Levels?BTCUSD: Price pushes off of 7605, touches 8604 in a matter of hours, BUT it did not close strong. This price action is apparent across the board and for me means ones thing: bulls are not in control, yet. The next scenario that I am anticipating is a failed low formation which needs to unfold above 7401 if buyers are to return and initiate the next bullish leg. All eyes are on this market. ETH and LTC are pretty much following this lead. Buying activity appeared at a very attractive support area BUT like I wrote about in my previous report, strong closes are required in order to prove that there is follow through. When indecisive or weak closes appear instead, that means the bearish momentum is still intact. That also means lower prices are a much higher probability. The question is, how much lower? That is where the current location and price structure come into play. Price is now within the 8171 to 7239 minor support zone (.618 of recent bullish swing) which is also overlapping the broad 8174 to 4983 major support area (.618 area of entire bullish structure). I have been writing about this overlapping support area for weeks. Trading within a support area is an important piece of information to know, but not necessarily enough to buy into. Within the minor support zone, there are two reversal zone boundaries that are important to note. Reversal zones are areas that are proportionate to a low or high point where price is most likely to reverse. If a fake out is going to happen, that is most often where it happens. In this case. 7776 and 7401 which overlap the 8171 to 7239 support zone are the lower boundaries of two reversal zones relative to the 8342 and 7665 lows respectively. That is why even though price is still controlled by bearish momentum, it still has a chance to reverse. Right now in order to prove that bullish momentum is returning, price needs to reverse from where it is and break above 8200. Until that happens, this market is likely to continue lower, even beyond the reversal zones as long as momentum stays bearish. That is why it is more conservative to bet on the proof of the reversal (follow through) than a reversal attempt (pin bar alone). In summary, if you took the recent pin bar long (there was a great signal posted on other site), it hit its short term target within the same day, but if you held onto it looking for a broader move higher, the fact that the next close after the pin bar was not strong was a clear sign that you should either get out, or sit on what you have and see if the failed low scenario plays out (which is much more risky). It all depends on what your goal is: short term or long term. I am still managing a position trade long, and holding for the next broad move higher. IF the reversal zones do not hold up, it means I will have to take more pain which I am willing to do. I have the long term perspective and recognize that these low prices in general are a buying opportunity. As long as the original premise and underlying technology maintain their relevance, these persistent sell offs offer better prices to buy. Questions and comments welcome and see explanation of the recent trade on SC.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
21
ETHUSD Perspective And Levels: Watching For Higher Low 290s.ETHUSD Update: Price reaches the 286 support area and rejects it with an initial push back to 310. This may be the beginning of a bullish reversal formation on the larger time frame and I am WATCHING carefully for a new swing trade long. BTC and the rest of the markets broke supports and pushed lows, which is interesting because when BTC pushes highs, these markets are not so quick to follow, but when it is pushing lows, the follow the leader behavior shows up again. With that being said, this market has reached even more attractive support areas for a swing trade long. The 295 support is the .382 of the entire bullish swing which broke but the 286 level which is an area of repetitive buying not only held, but got a rush of bullish price action taking this market back up to 310. Often sharp bounces like these are the beginning of a momentum change, in this case back to bullish. The other great thing about this situation is risk can be clearly defined by the 286 level. So my plan is to wait for a retrace possibly back to 300 or slightly below and look for a swing trade long entry. If a price area between 300 and 295 can show a bullish candle, I will look to go long in that area with a STOP AT 284. Once again to control risk, I will start with a smaller position of 25% of my usual position size. My target area is in the high 330s. Reward/risk is about 2.5/1. Also if I manage to get long and price is behaving the way it should, I will look to buy the other 75% of the position upon an upside break of 310 (AFTER I am in my initial position, otherwise I stay FLAT). Buying into bearish momentum is a process that requires strict attention to risk. It is possible for this market to keep selling if the 286 level is taken out again. The next support is in the 258 to 232 zone which is the .618 of the entire bullish swing. If price retests the lower support zone, that would signal to me that a consolidating market is more likely to follow rather than a retest of the highs. Either way, that area can offer swing trade opportunities as well (adjusted with more conservative targets). In summary, sell offs such as these are where the lower risk buying opportunities often reveal themselves, not at the highs especially when everyone is "painting rockets" as one trader once so eloquently described. It isn't easy though because the randomness of the market is always throwing curve balls, that is why keeping risk minimized is so important during a time like this. Absorbing small losses while seeking to buy into a supportive area is not that uncommon, especially with the amount of emotion that leads to large price spikes. I will be watching the low 300s to 295 area for reversal signs and look to reenter long there if my criteria is met. Let's see what happens. Comments and questions welcome.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
43
NEO failure to launchSpent some time with NEO tonight. I don't feel like this is a very strong impulse wave but a possible head and shoulders forming and I don't see enough evidence yet to confirm a strong and sustained upward trend. I think the top of this "right shoulder" will peak around .00808 to .00836 before we see a price reversal to around .0075 which is a key level resistance. If we drop below .0075 I think we could see it plummet to around .0059 over the next few weeks, which was a previous strong support level. I would need to see NEO get over .00923 to confirm a real move to blast off. That impluse move could bring us to around .01065 before correction or more with following impulse waves. detailed coinigy chart with fibs and indicators www.coinigy.com I hope I am proven wrong! Could go either way. Been wanting to go to the moon for some time now.
Long
by cryptogazer
1