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EurJpy at a level to watchHello fellow traders , my regular and new friends! Welcome and thanks for dropping by my post. Trend on the jpy crosses were mostly to the upside, pullback was seen on last thur,fri, currently lets see how the trendline and key support holds. will it propel it higher? This is same for EJ. UJ has a potential double tops.not confirmed yet though Do check out my stream video for the week to have more explanation in place. Do Like and Boost if you have learnt something and enjoyed the content, thank you! -- Get the right tools and an experienced Guide, you WILL navigate your way out of this "Dangerous Jungle"! -- ********************************************************************* Disclaimers: The analysis shared through this channel are purely for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are by no means professional advice for individual/s to enter trades for investment or trading purposes. *********************************************************************
by Shadowing_The_Big_Boys
Decoding USD/JPY Future in a Changing Economic Landscape Multi-Timeframe Technical Analysis for USD/JPY 1. Monthly Time Frame: - Key Observation: Noticeable rejection of the USD/JPY price at a significant support level, indicating potential bullish sentiment or a reversal point. - Additional Note: High liquidity observed at price highs, marked by two equal highs, which could signify resistance zones. 2. Weekly Time Frame: - Key Observation: Transition in market structure from bearish to bullish, indicating a potential longer-term upward trend for USD/JPY. 3. Daily Time Frame: - Key Observation: A shift in market sentiment is evident, aligning with the bullish outlook observed in the weekly timeframe. Fundamental Analysis: Federal Reserve Policies and Economic Indicators 1. Federal Reserve's Stance: - Policy Outlook: Continuation of a restrictive monetary policy for the foreseeable future, with the possibility of rate peaks being reached. - Inflation Control: Strong emphasis on reducing inflation sustainably before policy easing. 2. Economic Indicators: - Optimism on Inflation: Growing confidence in managing inflation, with potential rate cuts envisioned in 2024, though the exact timing remains uncertain. 3. Market Reaction: - Impact on USD/JPY: The Federal Reserve's stance typically has a direct impact on USD/JPY. A more restrictive policy tends to strengthen the USD against the JPY, while a more dovish stance or rate cuts could weaken it. 4. Future Projections: - Interest Rate Trajectory: Anticipation of three rate cuts in 2024, suggesting a potential future weakening of the USD against the JPY. - Economic Growth Forecast: Slow growth expected in 2024, which could influence currency strength dynamics. 5. USD/JPY Specifics: - Japanese Economic Factors: Apart from U.S. economic indicators, USD/JPY traders should also consider Japan's economic health, monetary policy, and geopolitical factors influencing the yen. Trading Implications for USD/JPY - Short-Term Strategy: The bullish technical signals on higher timeframes suggest potential long positions in the short to medium term. However, be mindful of resistance levels highlighted by the liquidity at price highs. - Long-Term Outlook: Fundamental analysis indicates potential weakening of the USD in 2024 due to anticipated rate cuts. Traders may look for signs of trend reversal or strengthening of the JPY for future positioning. - Risk Management: Keep an eye on upcoming Federal Reserve meetings and announcements, U.S. economic data releases, and Japanese economic indicators. These can cause significant volatility in the USD/JPY pair. Conclusion For USD/JPY, the current technical analysis suggests a bullish trend in the near term, but fundamental factors indicate potential shifts in 2024. You should maintain a balanced approach, staying updated with economic developments and central bank policies in both the U.S. and Japan. As with any currency trading, risk management and continual reassessment of the market conditions are crucial.
Long
by Wiiso
Will EURJPY bearish momentum stall?EURJPY - Intraday Price action looks to be forming a top. A lower correction is expected. Short term bias is bullish. We therefore, prefer to fade into the dip with a tight stop in anticipation of a move back higher. Further upside is expected although we prefer to buy into dips close to the 163.40 level. We look to Buy at 163.40 (stop at 162.30) Our profit targets will be 164.40 and 164.70 Resistance: 167.35 / 168.95 / 171.20 Support: 161.90 / 160.00 / 158.70 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
Long
by OANDA
Buy AUDJPY Bullish ChannelThe AUD/JPY pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential buying opportunity due to the presence of a well-defined bullish channel pattern. This pattern suggests ongoing buying pressure and a higher likelihood of further advances in the coming minutes or hours. Key Points: Buy Entry: Consider entering a long position (buying) around the current price of 97.77, positioned near the channel support. This offers an entry point close to potential buying pressure. Target Levels: Initial bullish targets lie at the previous resistance levels within the channel, now acting as potential support zones: 98.21 and 98.44. Further upside targets could be determined using other technical analysis methods like Fibonacci retracements or extensions. Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order below the broken support line of the channel, ideally around 97.60. This helps limit potential losses if the price breaks down and invalidates the bullish pattern. Thank you
Long
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
2
USD/JPY at Critical Juncture: Evaluating Peaks and Intervention The USD/JPY has surged to multi-year highs in the 151.000s amid a broader strengthening of the US Dollar and shifting trade dynamics, exerting downward pressure on the Japanese Yen. Currently positioned at 151.590, the pair finds itself within a robust resistance zone, hinting at a potential retracement following the Federal Reserve's upcoming policy meeting. As the USD/JPY approaches a critical intervention zone, historically monitored by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) for FX market stabilization, there arises a likelihood of resistance to further appreciation. This intervention zone, noted by analysts at MUFG, underscores the BoJ's proactive stance in curbing excessive Yen weakness beyond the 150.000 threshold. The proximity to this intervention zone implies a possible inflection point for the USD/JPY, suggesting a pending reversal or consolidation in the near term. Such dynamics highlight the intricate interplay between central bank interventions and market sentiment, shaping the trajectory of currency pairs like the USD/JPY.
Short
by FOREXN1
4
GBPJPY: Thoughts and Analysis Post-BOJToday's focus: GBPJPY Pattern – Continuation/resistance test? Support – 188.20 Resistance – 191.15 Hi, traders; thanks for tuning in for today's update. Today, we are looking at the GBPJPY daily. The BOJ lifted rates today to 0.10%, breaking the run of negative rates and showing a change in direction not seen since 2007. The BOJ also advised an end to yield curve control and ETF purchases. This had a negative effect on the JPY and sent majors higher. The GBPJPY has added up to 0.73% in today's session and has come close to testing resistance. We want to see a break of resistance to show a new continuation higher. A stall at resistance could set up a new move lower. If we see a new move to 190 and above, could we see the BOJ step in? Good trading.
Long
by Eightcap
NZDJPY to continue in the downward move?NZDJPY - 24h expiry Indecisive price action has resulted in sideways congestion on the intraday chart. RSI (relative strength indicator) is flat and reading close to 50 (mid-point) highlighting the fact that we are non- trending. Risk/Reward would be poor to call a sell from current levels. A move through 90.60 will confirm the bearish momentum. The measured move target is 90.40. We look to Sell at 91.00 (stop at 91.25) Our profit targets will be 90.35 and 90.15 Resistance: 90.75 / 91.00 / 91.25 Support: 90.50 / 90.40 / 90.25 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
Short
by OANDA
Technical Update - GBPJPY testing 190, likely resuming uptrend The GBPJPY pair is testing the 0.618 retracement at 190.04. The RSI shows positive sentiment and has broken above its falling trendline, indicating that GBPJPY is likely to break above the 0.618 retracement and move higher. If the RSI closes back above the 60 thresholds, GBPJPY is likely to break above the February peak at 191.33 and move towards the 1.382 projections at 192.61. A close below 187.85 will reverse the bullish scenario and push GBPJPY lower to 186.17
by Saxo
Technical Update - USDJPY testing key resitance The USDJPY pair has rebounded to the 0.618 retracement and key resistance at around 149.20. If it is rejected and fails to close above, the pair could slide back to 148.15 possibly lower. A daily close above 149.20 level indicates short-term potential to reach the February peak at around 150.84, with the 2022 peak at 151.95 also in sight. The RSI is showing negative sentiment, suggesting that USDJPY is likely to be rejected at the 149.20 resistance. However, an RSI close above the 60 thresholds would change this outlook
by Saxo
AUDJPY possible dropAfter price broke structure to the downside with momentum, it preceded to retrace back towards a very extreme supply zone that it left behind during the expansion. It has currently formed liquidity below this supply zone that it could use to fuel its move further to the downside to break the recently formed weak low. The reason a short would be ideal now is because although we are bullish on larger time frames, we are currently bearish on lower time frames and are riding the retracement of the larger higher time frame move.
Short
by BlackTygaTrades
USD JPYMy analysis on USD JPY, I use limit orders so I don't need to be in front of the chart all day. To consider this a good entry there are certain criteria to follow: 1. Clean BoS with IMB. 2. * Look for areas where liquidity has been purged. 3. * Stochastic: in uptrend 0-15, in downtrend 85-100. ( * ) = Not optional but increases our probability. I use Fibonacci to get these extreme points and my preferred one is 75% retracement, with a risk-reward of 1:3. Set and forget. Trade carefully, This is not financial advice, DYOR.
Short
by betimmavriqi
5
GBP JPYMy analysis on GBP JPY, I use limit orders so I don't need to be in front of the chart all day. To consider this a good entry there are certain criteria to follow: 1. Clean BoS with IMB. 2. * Look for areas where liquidity has been purged. 3. * Stochastic: in uptrend 0-15, in downtrend 85-100. ( * ) = Not optional but increases our probability. I use Fibonacci to get these extreme points and my preferred one is 75% retracement, with a risk-reward of 1:3. Set and forget. Trade carefully, This is not financial advice, DYOR.
Short
by betimmavriqi
EUR JPYMy analysis on EUR JPY, I use limit orders so I don't need to be in front of the chart all day. To consider this a good entry there are certain criteria to follow: 1. Clean BoS with IMB. 2. * Look for areas where liquidity has been purged. 3. * Stochastic: in uptrend 0-15, in downtrend 85-100. ( * ) = Not optional but increases our probability. I use Fibonacci to get these extreme points and my preferred one is 75% retracement, with a risk-reward of 1:3. Set and forget. Trade carefully, This is not financial advice, DYOR.
Short
by betimmavriqi
BOJ to deliver 1st hike in 17 years tomorrow? There is possibly no bigger trading event this week than the Bank of Japan’s decision on Monday. The groundwork for abandoning negative interest rates has been subtly laid since last year, and now, this could very well be the month they choose to make their move. The prospect of ending a policy entrenched for nearly two decades could significantly move the USDJPY. The catalyzing force for the BoJ to end negative interest rates are the substantial wage hikes big corporations and their labor unions agreed on this year. On Friday, the Japanese Trade Union Confederation, the country's largest labor organization, disclosed that this year's annual wage negotiations produced remarkable outcomes. Major corporations witnessed an average hike of 5.28%, the largest wage increase in 33 years. Because of this, The Bank of Japan could be thinking that the current economic climate is OK for sustaining a stable 2% inflation rate in an environment without negative interest rates. Even in the eventuality of the negative rate policy ceasing, Governor Ueda has emphasized the continuity of accommodative monetary conditions. The BOJ will likely keep interest rates at zero percent. So, watch out for overreactions to this news too, and corrective moves in Yen pairs.
by BlackBull_Markets
2
A Traders’ Weekly Playbook: Long event risk, short sleepThe markets will come alive this week reacting to the outcomes of an incredible array of tier 1 event risk, with some 14 central bank meetings, including six G10 central bank meetings, as well as numerous emerging market central banks too. At a more micro level, Nvidia takes centre stage with the highly anticipated GPT conference a potential volatility driver for the AI juggernaut. We consider that the findings could impact the wider semiconductor space and even promote volatility across broad markets. In the playbook, we break down what matters most in each event risk and what could drive market moves above all else, while offering trading thoughts on where the skew of risk resides. This coming week there will be opportunities across markets, but more importantly, the ability to skillfully manage risk and assess correct position sizing will be where traders live to fight another day. For a more detailed run-through of the week’s events, as well as analysis of the technical set-ups front of mind and the trades I am reviewing, join the livestream on TradingView on Monday at 1pm AEDT. Good luck to all. Key event risk for the radar this week Nvidia GTC conference (18-21 March) After a record 10 weeks of consecutive gains for Nvidia’s share price, investors get a chance to hear more about the future of generative AI, as well as new products in the pipeline and potential sales opportunities through the lens of the AI market leader. We hear from CEO Jensen Huang (on 18 March) and other key figures within the business. Expectations that the conference will hit the sweet spot are sky-high and the options market implies an -/+11.6% move in the share prices by Friday. The importance of Nvidia to the broad US and even global equity market can’t be overstated and the read-through to semiconductors and the wider NAS100 is a real risk. AI has been the key equity theme for a while and will continue to be so, and Nvidia is at the epicentre of this. The prospect of a sell-on-fact scenario is a real risk. Tencent – a key influence on the HK50 index, Tencent report earnings on 20 March with the options market implying a -/+3.8% move on the day of earnings. The HK50 index has formed a wedge pattern within a long-term bear channel – a set-up that needs monitoring – preference to chase strength should price break above 17,200. FOMC meeting (21 March at 05:00 AEDT) and Chair Jay Powell’s press conference (05:30 AEDT) What to focus on: • The Fed won’t cut rates at this meeting and the guidance and overall tone will likely remain unchanged from prior commentary. US interest rate swaps price 75bp of cuts by year-end, so the FOMC statement, economic projection (SEPs) and Jay Powell’s press conference will need to reconcile against that pricing. • The ‘dots’ are key – if 2 Fed members lift their projection for the fed funds rate in 2024 it will result in the median projection for the collective being reduced to 2 cuts (from 3) through 2024. Given market pricing for 75bp of cuts this year, a move towards 2 cuts for 2024 as the median ‘dot’ should cause US bond yields to spike higher, taking the USD higher and US equity and gold trade lower. • The longer-term projection for the fed funds rate – or what is considered the ‘neutral rate’ for Fed policy - currently sits at 2.5% - could this be revised higher to 2.75%? • If the Fed’s 2024 dot for 2024 remains at 4.6% (and for 3 rate cuts), but we also see an upgrade to the 2024 GDP forecast (currently 1.4%), we could feasibly see a relief rally in equity and gold and promote USD sellers. Trader thoughts: The algo’s will be set to respond rapidly to the 2024 dot, as this is what matters above all else. A move to pencil in 2 rate cuts this year is not consensus but it is a real possibility and would likely see markets implied rate cuts by December 2024 reduced from 75bp to 60bp of implied cuts. This outcome would see the USD spike and see equity and gold trade lower. Conversely, if the 2024 ‘dot’ remains at 3 cuts, then we could see an immediate relief rally in risky assets and gold. The risk to markets seems balanced, so it seems prudent to reduce exposures over the FOMC meeting and look to react accordingly when the facts are known. BoJ meeting (19 March – likely seen between 1pm and 4pm AEDT) • Despite strong union wage increases on Friday, 29 of 31 economists see BoJ rates left at -0.1%, with a view that the BoJ send a strong signal they will hike rates in the April meeting. Market pricing, however, implies a 10bp hike at 50%, suggesting an elevated risk of JPY volatility over the meeting. • We also look for changes to Yield Curve Control (YCC) and/or the pace of bond and ETF purchases. Trader thoughts – Again, the algos will play a key role in determining initial market moves, and hedge funds will set them to respond squarely on whether we see a 10bp hike or not. While the broad market is short of JPY it feels that unless we see a 10bp hike and changes to the rate of JGB purchases then it will be hard to promote a material move higher in the JPY. Swiss National Bank (21 March at 19:30 AEDT) • The Swiss swaps market prices the chance of a 25bp cut at 30% • 18 of 20 economists see interest rates unchanged at 1.75% Trader thoughts – Two weeks ago the broad view was that the SNB could cut rates by 25bp, perhaps even by 50bp – now the broad consensus view is that the SNB leave policy unchanged at 1.75%. Given market pricing, the risk is we see a bigger move lower in the CHF on a 25bp cut, than any potential rally in the CHF should the SNB leaves policy unchanged. Short CHFJPY and Long USDCHF positions subsequently look attractive – although, as many traders will attest to, trading over news like this needs to be carefully considered and position sizing is of paramount importance. Banxico (22 March at 06:00 AEDT) • Mexican swaps price a 25bp cut at an 80% probability. • 16 of 18 economists see a 25bp rate cut to get the overnight rate to 11% Trader thoughts – With a 25bp cut - that commences a potential cutting cycle, largely priced by rates traders, a surprise outcome to leave rates unchanged could see USDMXN trade through 16.65 and into new cycle lows. Should the market get the expected 25bp cut we could see a move through 16.75, but the extent of the rally will be down to the statement and whether there is a strong appetite to cut again soon. Bank of England (21 March at 23:00 AEDT) • The BoE statement will likely be a low volatility event for the GBP, with the UK swaps market not pricing the first full 25bp cut until August. Look for a 7-1-1 split decision and a patient stance, with the BoE content with current market pricing on rate expectations. Trader thoughts – I hold no real directional bias for the GBP from this meeting, so GBPUSD will likely take its direction from the UK CPI print and moves in the S&P500 and broad risk semantics. That said, the trend in GBPUSD skews risks to the downside, and I favour GBPUSD shorts, with stops above 1.2770. RBA meeting (19 March at 14:30 AEDT) • Aussie interest rate futures prices a zero probability of a cut at this meeting, with a full 25bp cut priced by September. We also see 38bp (or 1.5 25bp cuts) priced by December. • The RBA statement will likely remain largely unchanged, guiding that “it will take some time before inflation is sustainably in the target range”, and “further increase in interest rates cannot be ruled out”. While other central banks actively express a bias for rate cuts, it would be a shock to the market if the RBA opened the door to cuts in this statement. Trader thoughts – the RBA meeting will likely be a low-volatility affair, and AUDUSD is likely to take its direction this week from the FOMC meeting, as well as iron ore, copper, and Chinese equities. A break of 0.6550 may see the early March lows of 0.6477 revisited, although this would be unlikely unless the VIX index trades into 17% and we see broad de-risking through broad markets. Norges (Norway) Bank (21 March at 20:00 AEDT) – the market implies a zero probability of a change in Norwegian interest rates at this meeting, with the first 25bp cut not fully priced until September. I am biased for USDNOK to push towards the top of the range at 10.70. China PBoC 1 & 5-year Prime rate (20 March at 12:15 AEDT) – after a larger-than-expected cut last month to the prime rate (the benchmark rate that households and businesses can borrow from commercial banks), the PBoC are unlikely to cut the prime rate again this time around. A surprise cut would therefore likely see Chinese/HK equities rally. Colombia central bank (23 March at 05:00 AEDT) – the consensus is for rates to be cut by 50bp to 12.25%. Will this forum be the catalyst to see USDCOP break out of the tight trading range the pair has held throughout 2024? Brazil central bank (21 March at 08:30 AEDT) – the overwhelming consensus is that we see the Selic (interest) rate cut by 50bp cut to 10.75%. Other key economic data points of note – China retail sales/industrial production/property sales (18 March), Canada CPI (19 March), UK CPI (20 March), Australia employment report (21 March), EU manufacturing and services PMI (21 March).
NASDAQ:NVDA
by Pepperstone
UJ could have a little upside more,note BOJ and FED ratesHello fellow traders , my regular and new friends! Welcome and thanks for dropping by my post. This week gonna be a hectic week for most of the majors with the interest rate news. There are levels to watch on UJ and catch up with me on my streaming to hear me out on deeper analysis! Do check out my stream video for the week to have more explanation in place. Do Like and Boost if you have learnt something and enjoyed the content, thank you! -- Get the right tools and an experienced Guide, you WILL navigate your way out of this "Dangerous Jungle"! -- ********************************************************************* Disclaimers: The analysis shared through this channel are purely for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are by no means professional advice for individual/s to enter trades for investment or trading purposes. *********************************************************************
Long
by Shadowing_The_Big_Boys