Get started

Japaneseyen

COT Strategy - SHORT JAPANESE YENDISCLAIMER: This is not trade advice. This is for educational purposes only to demonstrate how I am looking to participate in this market. There is significant risk involved in trading, do your own homework and due diligence. COT Strategy SHORT Japanese Yen (6J) My COT strategy has me on alert for new short trades in 6J if we get additional bearish entry triggers (this week a divergence entry triggered short). COT Commercial Index: Sell Signal Valuation: Overvalued vs Gold & Treasuries Extreme Positioning: Commercials most short they have been in last 3 years = bearish. Small Specs most long they have been in 3 years = bearish. OI Analysis: OI has been increasing on up move. When OI increases, we need to ask "who caused the OI increase"? When it is caused by Large Specs & Small Specs, it is bearish. True Seasonal: Strong seasonal tendency to go down to October. COT Small Spec Index: Sell Signal Supplementary Indicators: %R Remember, this is not a "Short Now" idea. These indicators are not timing tools. They simply tell us that this market could have a move of some significance to the downside, which we will participate in with a confirmed Daily trend change to the downside. Good luck & good trading.
CME:6JZ2024Short
by Tradius_Trades
1
JPY Futures Drop as Fed Rate Cut Speculation GrowsJPY futures have fallen below the 0.007134 level, driven by rising speculation of significant interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. As market participants brace for potential monetary easing, the U.S. dollar has faced increased pressure, leading to weakness across several pairs, including JPY. Investors expect the Fed to reduce interest rates by up to 100 basis points by the end of the year, which has become a key factor influencing the broader currency market. Key Market Dynamics: Fed and BoJ Rate Expectations The growing belief that the Federal Reserve will pursue aggressive rate cuts has been weighing heavily on the U.S. dollar, with many anticipating a softer policy stance in response to slowing economic growth and inflation concerns. This dovish outlook has provided some support for the yen, even as Japan’s economic conditions remain stable. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is expected to maintain its interest rates steady at 0.25% when it meets on Friday. While the BoJ has been cautious with rate adjustments, keeping its ultra-low rate policy in place, the potential disparity between the Fed’s and BoJ’s stances could further impact JPY futures in the coming days. Technical Outlook: Rebound from Supply Area Signals Bearish Sentiment From a technical perspective, JPY futures have rebounded off a key supply area, a zone that has previously acted as resistance. The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report paints a divided picture, with retail traders showing extreme bullishness on the yen, suggesting expectations of further strength. However, institutional investors, often referred to as “smart money,” remain strongly bearish on the currency, signaling their belief that the recent uptick may be short-lived. This divergence in sentiment provides a clear opportunity for a short position, as the bearish outlook from institutional players suggests that the yen could face downward pressure once the initial bullish momentum subsides. Looking Ahead: Short Position Setup Given the current technical setup and the wider macroeconomic backdrop, we are positioning for a short trade on JPY futures. With the price having already bounced off a significant supply area and smart money positioning heavily on the bearish side, a reversal looks increasingly likely. Furthermore, if the Fed’s anticipated rate cuts materialize, the U.S. dollar could stabilize or even rebound, adding further downside pressure to JPY futures. In the meantime, all eyes will be on the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan's respective decisions, as they will be the critical drivers of yen movement in the short term. ✅ Please share your thoughts about JPY in the comments section below and 👍 HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
CME:6J1!Short
by FOREXN1
1
USD/JPY Long Trade: Building into Next Week's OpportunityGetting ready for next week's USD/JPY setup! 🚀 The market is aligning for a potential big move, and I'm positioning myself for the action. Watch closely as I plan my entries and manage the trade—timing is everything! ⏳ If you're into catching high-probability trades and want to see how I approach the markets, make sure to follow and stay tuned. Let’s ride this wave together! 📈 Don't miss out—like, comment, and share your thoughts below!
Long
by trader9224
1
USD/JPY: Reversal Signal or More Downside? The Japanese yen has tested prices below 141, an eight-month low for the pair. But eventually pulled back above 142. From a technical perspective, this long wick might look to some traders to be the start of a small reversal before its eventual sojourn lower. Rom a fundamental perspective, US Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in a few hours ago lower than expected. Which means the US Federal Reserve might forgo a 50bps cut in favor of a 25bps next week. This might help support the US dollar in the face of yen strength. Now we have US Producer Price Index (PPI) to look forward to on Thursday. The Yen against Euro could be interesting to keep an eye on too in the lead up to the European Central Bank (ECB) decision. On Thursday, the ECB is expected to cut its interest rate to 3.5% from 3.75%.
by BlackBull_Markets
CHFJPY Sell-off to be extended.The CHFJPY pair has been trading within a Channel Down pattern since the July 11 High and has currently already started the new Bearish Leg, having failed to break above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). Until it does, the trend will remain bearish. This Leg targets the 1W MA100 (red trend-line) and our Target is 161.500. We will swift to buying again after the CCI prints two straight Higher Lows, similar to August 05 and April 02, but we will update when the time comes. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Short
by TradingShot
AUDJPY Excellent long-term Buy Entry. Double Bottom may happen.The last signal we gave on the AUDJPY pair (July 02, see chart below) couldn't have a better timing as the price was rejected on the very same day just when it hit the Sell Zone and in 3 weeks hit the 101.000 Target: The price even broke below the 1W MA100 (green trend-line) but found Support exactly on the bottom of the 2.5 year Channel Up (on today's chart we made the necessary adjustments to fit the Higher Highs) and more importantly, the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line). Last week's rejected on the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), serves as a reminder that a Double Bottom might be required before the Channel Up confirms the start of the new Bullish Leg. At least this is what happened on the March 20 2023 and November 29 2021 Lows (we had a 1W MA50 rejection for 5 straight months during February 2023). As a result, another touch of the 1W RSI on its 3-year Buy Zone will confirm the new long-term uptrend and we will turn bullish, targeting 114.000 (+26.70% rise, similar to the last two Bullish Legs). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Long
by TradingShot
Smart Money Positioned to SHORT JPY - COT StrategyDISCLAIMER: This is not trade advice. This is for educational purposes only to demonstrate how I am looking to participate in this market. There is significant risk involved in trading, do your own homework and due diligence. COT Strategy SHORT Japanese Yen (6J) My COT strategy has me on alert for short trades in 6B if we get a confirmed bearish change of trend on the Daily timeframe. COT Commercial Index: Sell Signal Valuation: Overvalued vs Gold & Treasuries Extreme Positioning: Commercials most short they have been in last 3 years = bearish. Small Specs most long they have been in 3 years = bearish. OI Analysis: OI has been increasing on up move. When OI increases, we need to ask "who caused the OI increase"? When it is caused by Large Specs & Small Specs, it is bearish. True Seasonal: Strong seasonal tendency to go down to October. COT Small Spec Index: Sell Signal Supplementary Indicators: %R & Momentum (not confirmed) Remember, this is not a "Short Now" idea. These indicators are not timing tools. They simply tell us that this market could have a move of some significance to the downside, which we will participate in with a confirmed Daily trend change to the downside. Good luck & good trading.
CME:6JU2024Short
by Tradius_Trades
9
Japan225 Daily Short: Targeting Downside After 0.7 Fib Retraceme This trade is based on the daily chart of Japan225, where the price has recently retraced to the 0.7 Fibonacci level, presenting a potential opportunity for a downside move. The current market structure indicates a possible reversal from the recent highs, with a key resistance area marked by the red zone on the chart. Key Levels: • Entry: The trade is entered near the 0.7 Fib retracement level, capitalizing on the potential for a pullback. • Target: The target is set at the lower green zone, aligning with a previous support level where buyers may re-enter the market. • Stop-Loss: A stop-loss is placed above the recent high, as indicated by the upper red zone, to manage risk if the price continues to climb. Rationale: The Japan225 has shown a significant retracement up to the 0.7 Fibonacci level, which often acts as a strong resistance area. The daily timeframe provides a broader perspective, suggesting that the price may now face downward pressure. This setup seeks to capitalize on the expected reversal, aiming for a move lower in the upcoming sessions. Risk Management: With a clearly defined stop-loss and a favorable risk-to-reward ratio, this trade minimizes risk while allowing for substantial downside potential. As always, adjustments will be made based on market behavior. Note: Please remember to adjust this trade idea according to your individual trading conditions, including position size, broker-specific price variations, and any relevant external factors. Every trader’s situation is unique, so it’s crucial to tailor your approach to your own risk tolerance and market environment.
OANDA:JP225USDShort
by AR33_
4
EURJPY Buy opportunity only if the 1D MA50 breaks.The EURJPY pair has been trading within a long-term Channel Up since the March 07 2022 bottom. The start of July saw it experience a strong correction, technically the latest Bearish Leg of the pattern that broke below the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since the week of March 20 2023 and hit the 1W MA100 (green trend-line) for the first time since March 07 2022! The 1W MA100 held, which confirmed its status as the multi-year Support but the rebound was short-lived as, even though it marginally broke above the 1W MA50, it failed to close a candle above it. As a result, this will be our signal to buy, a 1W candle closing above the 1W MA50. Once the bullish break-out takes place, our Target will be 182.000, which represents a +19.50% rise from the Higher Low, which is the % growth of both previous Bullish Legs within the Channel Up. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Long
by TradingShot
USD/JPY: 50% Retracement in Play Arif Husain, the head of fixed income at T. Rowe, is cautioning that volatility threatens the Japanese yen. Husain suggests that the yen carry trade has been unfairly blamed for what may actually be the onset of a larger, more complex trend. The Bank of Japan’s monetary tightening and its broader impact on global capital flows are intricate issues. A significant amount of Japanese capital invested overseas could potentially be repatriated as domestic interest rates rise. Adding to the yen’s momentum, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda reaffirmed on Tuesday that the central bank would continue raising interest rates if economic and inflationary conditions align with its expectations. This statement further bolstered the yen's strength. As the U.S. trading session begins, USD/JPY is testing the 50% retracement level of the August range. The pair may continue to face downward pressure due to the BoJ’s hawkish stance, even amid the general strength of the U.S. dollar in the broader market.
by BlackBull_Markets
Downside Ahead for JPY - COT Strategy Sell DISCLAIMER: This is not trade advice. This is for educational purposes only to demonstrate how I am looking to participate in this market. There is significant risk involved in trading, do your own homework and due diligence. COT Strategy SHORT JPY (6J) My COT strategy has me on alert for short trades in 6J if we get a confirmed bearish change of trend on the Daily timeframe. COT Commercial Index: Sell Signal Extreme Positioning: Commercials at extreme in long positioning, most long since 2021. Small Specs at extreme in long positioning, most long since 2021. All this is bearish. Valuation: Overvalued VS Treasuries & Gold OI Analysis: Upmove since July has seen CM's quickly shift to strong short position = bearish. True Seasonal: Strong seasonal tendency for this currency to go down into October. COT Small Spec Index: Sell Signal Supplementary Indicators: Acc/Dist, POIV & Stochastic Sell Signals Remember, this is not a "Short Now" idea. These indicators are not timing tools. They simply tell us that this market could have a move of some significance to the downside, which we will participate in with a confirmed Daily trend change to the downside. Good luck & good trading.
CME:6JU2024Short
by Tradius_Trades
GBPJPY Confirmed long-term buy opportunity.The GBPJPY pair has recovered the late July sell-off and inserted again back within the 2-year Channel Up and even closed the last 2 weeks above the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line). The latter technically confirmed the bottom and the start of the new Bullish Leg. The first Bullish Leg of the Channel Up reached the 2.0 Fibonacci extension, the second aimed even higher, so our 218.00 Target towards the peak of the Sine Wave appears to technically be a modest long-term Target. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Long
by TradingShot
USDJPY Strong buy opportunity long-term.The USDJPY pair has been trading within a long-term Channel Up since the October 17 2022 High. The recent 6-week correction below the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) is its technical Bearish Leg in order to price new Higher Low. The pull-back even broke below the 1W MA100 (green trend-line) but recovered as it didn't close a 1W candle below it and now the price action has settled within the 1W MA50 and MA100. If we do get a 1W candle closing below the MA100, wait for a buy near the bottom of the Channel Up, with the least risky buy being after the 1W MACD makes a Bullish Cross (has confirmed the last 2 major long-term rallies). If it breaks above the 1W MA50 first though, the 1W MACD will most likely also complete its Bullish Cross earlier, so we will buy nonetheless, even though the reward potential will be less. In either case, our Target is Resistance 1 (as it was on the rally that peaked on the week of November 13 2023) at 161.800. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
by TradingShot
USD/JPY breaking down from channel support line..!The Japaneese yen is getting stronger after the japaneese stock market is crashing. People panic selling stocks to buy Yen.. The 12.4% loss on the Nikkei stock was the worst day for the index since the “Black Monday” of 1987. Looking at FX:USDJPY we have broken down from the trading range we have been in since DEC 2022. We could now go up for a re-test of the channel resistance line before further downside could be the next moove. Next demand zones should be at about 137 and 131 and i look for a short opportunity at the re-test of channel resistance line. Make sure to follow me on X for weekly trade analysis: @PuppyNakamoto
Short
by WOLFofBlockStreet
JPY Strengthens Amid BoJ Tightening, USD Faces HeadwindsThe Japanese Yen (JPY) exerted downward pressure on the US Dollar (USD) during the early European session. Despite the USD's initial attempt to recover value following yesterday's decline, the JPY continued to strengthen due to rising expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) may implement further monetary policy tightening. The BoJ recently raised its short-term rate target by 15 basis points (bps), adjusting it to a range of 0.15%-0.25%. Additionally, the central bank announced plans to reduce its monthly purchases of Japanese government bonds (JGBs) to ¥3 trillion, starting in the first quarter of 2026. These moves have bolstered the JPY, adding to its momentum against the USD. Meanwhile, the upside potential for the USD/JPY pair appears limited as the USD encounters significant headwinds. Expectations are growing for a 50-basis point (bps) interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) in September. The CME FedWatch tool indicates a 74.5% probability of this rate cut at the September meeting, a sharp increase from the 11.4% chance reported just a week ago. From a technical perspective, incorporating our Supply and Demand analysis, we missed the initial entry in the Supply area due to a rapid spike that reached our entry point. Nonetheless, we are monitoring for a potential retest of that area for a possible short position. USD/JPY Chart ✅ Please share your thoughts about Japanese Yen Futures in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
CME:6J1!
by FOREXN1
1
USD/JPY Reaches Key Demand Zone: Is a Bullish Reversal Imminent?The Japanese Yen (JPY) has extended its winning streak against the US Dollar (USD) for the fifth consecutive session on Monday. This consistent momentum is driven by increasing expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) may further tighten its monetary policy. The BoJ's potential shift towards a more hawkish stance is attracting significant market attention, as investors anticipate changes that could impact the currency's value. Additionally, the unwinding of carry trades, where investors borrow in low-yielding currencies to invest in higher-yielding assets, is providing sustained support for the JPY. This unwinding trend suggests a repositioning of investments that favors the Yen, contributing to its recent strength. From a technical standpoint, the current price action has led the USD/JPY pair to a strong demand area, which aligns with multiple indicators pointing to a potential bullish reversal. Firstly, the pair has entered an oversold condition, suggesting that the selling pressure might be overextended and a corrective bounce could be on the horizon. Secondly, there is the potential start of bullish seasonality, a period during which historical data shows the JPY typically performs well. This seasonal trend could further bolster the case for a rebound. Our supply and demand strategy, which focuses on identifying key levels where price imbalances occur, indicates that the current demand zone is a critical area for a potential price reversal. This strategy has been effective in highlighting areas where buying interest may outweigh selling pressure, leading to upward price movements. Given the confluence of these technical factors, we are closely monitoring the price action for a long setup. We are particularly attentive to the behavior of the USD/JPY pair in this demand area. Should the price action confirm our expectations, we will look to enter a long position, anticipating a rebound. This approach aligns with our broader market analysis and strategic outlook, which aim to capitalize on identified opportunities supported by both technical indicators and market fundamentals. ✅ Please share your thoughts about USD/JPY in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Long
by FOREXN1
1
USDJPY: Where is the Support?! 🇺🇸🇯🇵 As a bearish rally on USDJPY continues, the pair keeps violating key historic support levels, one after another. Here are the next significant supports to pay close attention to. Support 1: 140.2 - 141.0 area Support 2: 137.2 - 138.1 area Support 3: 133.0 - 133.9 area Support 4: 129.6 - 130.8 area Support 5: 127.2 - 128.1 area These supports may indicate the levels/zones where the fall may stop. Pay attention to these areas and strictly wait for a strong confirmation before you open any trade. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Long
by VasilyTrader
2
USD/JPY Analysis: Anticipating a New Bullish ImpulseUSD/JPY, after retesting the demand area around $149.000, shows potential for initiating a new bullish impulse. This technical retest suggests the possibility of a fresh upward leg in the pair's price movement. By examining the Commitment of Traders (COT) report, we notice significant bullish sentiment among large traders, indicating support for a long position in USD/JPY. This aligns with our supply and demand analysis, which identifies the $149.000 level as a crucial demand zone where buying interest has emerged, providing a solid base for the price to move higher. Seasonality trends also favor this bullish outlook. Historically, this period tends to see strength in USD/JPY, adding confidence to our expectation of a new long setup. The combination of the retest of the demand zone, positive COT positioning, and favorable seasonality trends reinforces our anticipation of a bullish continuation. We are closely monitoring the price action and are prepared to enter a long position, expecting further gains from the current levels. This comprehensive approach, considering technical, sentiment, and seasonal factors, supports our strategy for a bullish setup in USD/JPY. Japanese Yes Futures: ✅ Please share your thoughts about USD/JPY in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Long
by FOREXN1
6