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USDJPY: Slowing Momentum & Your Trading Plan 🇺🇸🇯🇵 I guess that it is obvious that USDJPY is bullish. However, analysing the price action, we can spot a slowing momentum: after a sharp bullish impulse, the market started to grow within a rising wedge pattern - a classic reversal pattern. Its support breakout will be a strong bearish signal. Wait for a 4H candle close below its boundary as a confirmation. Sell aggressively or on a retest then. Target will be - 143.44 ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Short
by VasilyTrader
2
USD is Trading Inside of Wedge and May Rise to ResistanceHey Traders👋🏻 On The Daily Time Frame The USDJPY Price Reached a Strong ResistanceLevel (142.255-141.267)✔ The Price Broke This Key Level (The Resistance Becomes New Support Level) Moreover, The USDJPY has created a Rising Wedge pattern and trades inside. So, I Expect a Bullish Move📈 i'm waiting for a Retest... ----------- TARGET: 145.050🎯 ___________ if you agreed with this IDEA, please leave a LIKE, SUBSCRIBE or COMMENT!
Long
by Hsan_BenAhmed
8
GBPJPY: Hit a 2 year Resistance. Hard fall possible.GBPJPY hit today the top (HH line) of the Megaphone pattern that started on the May 24th 2021 High. Tha last time it did (April 18th 2022), the price got rejected back to the 0.618 Fibonacci level and the 1W MA50. Right now the 1W MA50 is already near the 0.618 Fibonacci and is headed towards the 0.5. With the 1W technicals vastly overbought (RSI = 75.716, MACD = 4.620, ADX = 61.529), we expect a hard landing for the pair and open a long term sell targeting the 0.5 Fibonacci (TP = 170.000), where not only we project contact with the 1W MA50 but is also where the HL of the Rising Wedge is. ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
Short
by InvestingScope
4
CHF JPY - FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSISAdam Cole, Chief Currency Strategist at RBC Capital Markets, has highlighted recent policy shifts from the Swiss National Bank (SNB), the persistent threat of imported inflation, and increasing levels of verbal intervention in Japan. "While the Swiss National Bank (SNB) may have let down some investors with a 25bp rate hike last week when many were hoping for a 50bp increase, it made its intentions clear: it's ready to buy CHF to provide suitable monetary conditions," says Cole. Indeed, despite a somewhat disappointing rate hike, the SNB's commitment to provide appropriate monetary conditions and willingness to buy CHF indicate a robust approach to currency management. The SNB's current focus on selling foreign currency further substantiates this view. Furthermore, the Swiss central bank's leadership recognises the benefits of CHF appreciation in the current economic climate. SNB Chair Jordan noted that the strong CHF has effectively acted as a shield against imported inflation, an increasingly prevalent issue globally. "SNB Chair Jordan revealed over the weekend that from the present perspective, monetary policy might not be tight enough to anchor price stability. He also noted that CHF appreciation has shielded Switzerland from imported inflation," Cole adds. In Japan, meanwhile, the situation is a bit more nuanced. Despite the increasing verbal interventions from officials, the strategists at RBC believe there is potential in shorting JPY at current levels. "In Japan, officials are ratcheting up their verbal interventions. Despite this, and the rising risk of intervention, RBC sees potential in shorting JPY at current levels," says Cole. The pullback in USD/JPY from Friday's highs does leave some room for maneuver. This environment, coupled with the SNB's policy stance and Switzerland's inflationary shield, has led RBC to take a bullish position on the CHF/JPY pair. As the markets continue to evolve in response to inflation, interest rate adjustments, and economic policy decisions, the perspective offered by strategists like Cole is crucial.
Long
by thunderpips
4
EURJPY initiating a sell signalEURJPY is trading inside a Channel Up for the past 3 months. The price is approaching the top of the Channel Up on a +9.00% extension, such as the May 2nd top. Trading Plan: 1. Sell on the current market price. Targets: 1. 153.750 (bottom of the Channel Up, below the 0.382 Fibonacci and above the MA50 1d). Tips: 1. The RSI (1d) will give a confirmed sell signal after it crosses under its MA line. It did so on May 3rd. Please like, follow and comment!!
Short
by TradingBrokersView
USD JPY - FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSISThe Japanese Yen (JPY) recently bounced back from its lowest point in seven months against the US Dollar (USD), following a statement from Japan's leading currency official that they are open to considering all possibilities regarding the currency. The recent depreciation of the Yen has been attributed to a policy gap between the accommodative Bank of Japan (BoJ) and foreign central banks, which are following a more aggressive monetary policy approach. Despite the potential for the US Dollar to Yen (USD/JPY) exchange rate to climb higher, the recent intervention by Japanese authorities at the 145 mark indicates that short-selling the Yen may pose significant risks. Chris Turner, ING Bank: USD/JPY's Volatile Dance Chris Turner, Global Head of Markets and Regional Head of Research for UK & CEE at ING Bank offers a perspective focused on the potential for a strong dollar to continue pushing the USD/JPY higher. "The strong dollar environment keeps USD/JPY grinding higher and approaching the 145 area, where Japanese authorities sold FX last September," says Turner. This suggests an anticipation of Japanese intervention should the USD to JPY exchange rate continue its upward trend. However, Turner also predicts potential volatility. "Over the coming month, we can see USD/JPY sharply bouncing around in a 140-145 range – suggesting that short-dated USD/JPY option volatility is priced a little too low," he adds. This indicates that while the dollar's strength could push the pair higher, market participants should also brace for possible fluctuations within a defined range. Yoshio Takahashi, Natwest: BoJ's Cautious Stance Yoshio Takahashi, Chief Japan Economist at Natwest, highlights the role of the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) policy decisions in shaping the Yen's trajectory. According to Takahashi, the board continues to voice caution about adjusting policy settings too hastily, implying a lack of confidence in the sustainability of stronger wage growth. "Multiple mentions of the possibility of 2H FY2023 inflation exceeding current expectations suggest to us that the BoJ is quite likely to upwardly revise its official projections at the July meeting," says Takahashi. This hints at the BoJ's dovish stance and the potential impact it could have on the yen. The strategist also highlights the impact of politics on the currency. "BOJ watchers will also need to be keeping at least one eye on exchange rate movements and domestic politics. Vice Minister of Finance for International Affairs Masato Kanda ramped up his yen-supportive jawboning on June 26," Takahashi adds, signalling that political interventions and verbal tactics could significantly influence the yen's position. Roberto Mialich, UniCredit: Monetary Policy Uncertainty UniCredit's FX Strategist, Roberto Mialich, underscores the influence of monetary policy uncertainty on the yen's weakness. According to Mialich, doubts about the BoJ's policy normalization this year are contributing to the yen's broad weakness. "The JPY fall is mostly due to doubts about the BoJ’s policy normalization this year. The Japanese forward curve has already moved to reflect this uncertainty," says Mialich. Looking ahead, Mialich forecasts potential for change. "We see the 19 December BoJ meeting as the one in which a first step in normalization might be announced. This might drag USD-JPY to 135," he adds. Despite the yen's current softness, Mialich sees potential for its recovery should the BoJ take steps towards policy normalization. Paul Mackel, HSBC: The Weight of Intervention and Yield Caps Turning our lens to the analysis from Paul Mackel, Global Head of FX Research at HSBC, there's an assertion of a cap on USD/JPY's growth, primarily influenced by the threat of foreign exchange intervention and the upper limit of US Treasury yields. "USD-JPY is likely to be capped by the threat of FX intervention and US Treasury yields already towards the top end of the recent trading range," says Mackel. This denotes an environment where growth in the pair could be restrained by multiple macroeconomic factors. In light of a potential policy change by the BoJ in September, Mackel maintains a cautious stance. "It is too early to play that in the JPY but the worst-performing currency in G10 FX so far this year may at least enjoy some stability in the coming weeks," he adds. His comments suggest a degree of near-term stability in the yen despite it being the underperformer among G10 currencies this year. Barclays Analysts: Rising Intervention Risks Analysts at Barclays share similar concerns regarding intervention by Japanese authorities. Their analysis also touches on the recent depreciation of the yen due to diverging monetary policy between a dovish BoJ and hawkish central banks overseas. "Recent JPY depreciation has been driven by policy divergence between a dovish BoJ and hawkish central banks overseas," Barclays analysts suggest. This perspective underscores the global forces at play influencing the yen's standing in the foreign exchange market. The forecasted rise in Tokyo's Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the recent verbal intervention also feature prominently in Barclays' outlook. "Although USDJPY could head higher still, recent intervention by the Japanese authorities around 145 makes yen shorts an increasingly dangerous proposition here," they add. This implies the possibility of a continued rise in USD/JPY, though not without associated risks owing to likely intervention. Valentin Marinov, Credit Agricole: Gauging the Intervention Risk Valentin Marinov, Head of G10 FX Strategy at Credit Agricole, presents an intriguing perspective on the interplay between the yen's value and the possibility of intervention. "Japan’s FX Tsar, Masato Kanda, has ramped up his verbal intervention in USD/JPY following the exchange rate’s move to nearly 144 late on Friday," says Marinov. His comment highlights the growing concern within Japan about the pace and magnitude of the yen's depreciation against the dollar. Marinov's forecast hinges on the valuation of USD/JPY exchange rate and the potential verbal and actual intervention by Japanese authorities. "A move towards 146 would see USD/JPY become significantly overvalued, however. USD/JPY traders should next watch for Kanda using the phrases that FX is 'clearly not reflecting fundamentals' or that movements in FX are 'clearly being excessive' or 'one side'," he adds. This insight reflects the delicate balance in the FX market and the potential triggers that might spur a more forceful response from Japanese authorities.
by thunderpips
USDJPY: Detailed Structure Analysis 🇺🇸🇯🇵 Here is my latest structure analysis for USDJPY. Horizontal Key Levels Resistance 1: 143.54 - 144.10 area Resistance 2: 145.10 - 145.60 area Resistance 3: 148.70 - 148.90 area Resistance 4: 151.70 - 151.90 area Support 1: 142.00 - 142.50 area Support 2: 140.60 - 141.45 area Support 3: 137.40 - 138.80 area Vertical Key Levels Vertical Support 1: rising trend line Consider these structures for pullback/breakout trading. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Short
by VasilyTrader
4
USDJPY: Double Channel Up pattern. Keep buying until it breaks.USDJPY is trading on a Channel Up inside a long term Channel Up pattern. The 1D time frame is overbought (RSI = 71.702, MACD = 1.430, ADX = 43.738) and as the RSI entered the Resistance Zone of March 1st, we expect a short term pull back inside the first Channel Up to 141.300. If the bottom (dotted lines) holds, we will buy and target towards the R3 (TP = 146.000). If however the price crosses under the Channel and as such the 1D MA50 too, we will sell and target the S2 (TP = 133.515). The HL trend line can offer an early sell warning if it breaks. Prior idea: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
by InvestingScope
10
USDJPY: Bullish Accumulation & Trading Plan 🇺🇸🇯🇵 USDJPY is stuck on a key horizontal daily resistance. The price is currently trading within a narrow range. Because the current trend is bullish, I am looking for trend-following opportunities. To buy with a confirmation, wait for a bullish breakout of 142.0 - 142.45 area. Daily candle close above will confirm the violation. A bullish continuation will be expected then at least to 143.5 Alternatively, a bearish breakout of the support of the range may trigger a correctional movement. ❤️Please, support this video with like and comment!❤️
Long
by VasilyTrader
10
USD JPY - FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSISBNP Paribas 2023-2024 Exchange Rate Forecasts Capital Outflows will Undermine the Dollar A starting point for the BNP market analysis is that it considers the dollar is notably overvalued in global markets, especially against the yen. It adds; “The USD on a G10 trade-weighted index is trading almost 2 standard deviations (about 25%) rich relative to our estimates of its long-term fair value, as captured by the BNP Paribas FEER.” The debate surrounds whether there will be a trigger for the overvaluation to be reversed. BNP expects a significant shift in capital flows over the next few months which will have an important impact on currency rates. According to the bank; “The normalization of global yields should continue to encourage repatriation by Eurozone and Japanese investors, who are overweight US assets.” BNP also considers that unease over US equity valuations will encourage a flow of funds out of the US into the rest of the world It adds; “Coupled with FX-hedge ratios at low levels, we see space for significant USD selling. Overall, BNP places less emphasis on Federal Reserve rate cuts in forecasting that the dollar will lose ground. Yen Can Secure Capital Inflows BNP continues to expect a strong recovery for the yen. Firstly, it expects that the Bank of Japan will tighten policy in July which will tend to strengthen the currency, especially given scope for a repatriation of funds by domestic institutions. It also expects lower US yields will support the yen while the threat of intervention will tend to curb potential selling pressure on the currency. The dollar to yen (USD/JPY) exchange rate is not forecast to hold above the 140.00 level.
Short
by thunderpips
6
USD JPY - FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSISBNP Paribas 2023-2024 Exchange Rate Forecasts Capital Outflows will Undermine the Dollar A starting point for the BNP market analysis is that it considers the dollar is notably overvalued in global markets, especially against the yen. It adds; “The USD on a G10 trade-weighted index is trading almost 2 standard deviations (about 25%) rich relative to our estimates of its long-term fair value, as captured by the BNP Paribas FEER.” The debate surrounds whether there will be a trigger for the overvaluation to be reversed. BNP expects a significant shift in capital flows over the next few months which will have an important impact on currency rates. According to the bank; “The normalization of global yields should continue to encourage repatriation by Eurozone and Japanese investors, who are overweight US assets.” BNP also considers that unease over US equity valuations will encourage a flow of funds out of the US into the rest of the world It adds; “Coupled with FX-hedge ratios at low levels, we see space for significant USD selling. Overall, BNP places less emphasis on Federal Reserve rate cuts in forecasting that the dollar will lose ground. Yen Can Secure Capital Inflows BNP continues to expect a strong recovery for the yen. Firstly, it expects that the Bank of Japan will tighten policy in July which will tend to strengthen the currency, especially given scope for a repatriation of funds by domestic institutions. It also expects lower US yields will support the yen while the threat of intervention will tend to curb potential selling pressure on the currency. The dollar to yen (USD/JPY) exchange rate is not forecast to hold above the 140.00 level.
Short
by thunderpips
3