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Nasdaq Composite Index CFD

Nasdaq Composite: Bond Yield Panic IXIC has been dropping quickly due to rising bond yield e.g. US10Y and US30Y and rising volatility. Volatility is often a self-fulfilling prophecy, as many funds automatically sell when volatility rises above certain threshold, creating more volatility and causing other investors to sell. However, the big picture remains bullish because the overall market sentiment is not panicking about recession. Also, newbie individual investors have not crowded the stock market like they did in 2020 and 2021. The Fed may start rate cutting in 2024, which will probably ignite another huge stock rally. Therefore, IXIC may drop to 13150, the 0.5 fibonacci retracement of the 2022 downturn. Then IXIC will probably recover and retest the previous high in early September. September and October are often bad months for stocks, but the first two weeks of September might be bullish just because August has been too bearish.
TVC:IXICLong
by MarcusAu
SPX | The Big OneThe Big One. The big question. Buy or sell? A question is easy. An answer can be hard. Most of us here trade because we believe we have a grasp on the answers. And we have several methods on our toolkit to reach a conclusion. One of these methods is belief . That's what we gamble upon. Belief on indices, stocks, ETFs, currencies is what makes us buy them and sell them. Belief aka. Psychology/Humanity Another one is instinct . You know, the thing that we follow when we are completely lost in a mountain path. Instinct aka. Survival A final one is persuasion . The well and tested kind of making an answer out of nothing. It's what politicians have to use, lawyers and figures like Elon. Our friend who, in two separate days in 2022, posted about both the next recession, and the next bubble. Constructive Argument aka. Business Perhaps we can add to these science. But in the end, science unfortunately tends to get mixed up with all of the above three. But science can be much more than that. A scientist must admit that they cannot give definite answers to anything. So for me to come out and give you definite explanations would be business. To answer where SPX can go, we must first orient ourselves. Remember, we are gambling on a mountain with Musk. So this is SPX, and I let an algorithm draw a channel around it. And this is SPX again, but this time I let a monkey draw a line. Humans tend to stop being humans, and let algorithms draw channels for them like the first one. And if you look closely at the second chart, It resembles the main chart. I basically took the SPX price, calculated its trend, and custom plotted the deviation from its trend. It is "safe" to assume that we are below one of the infinite trends. And here comes the dilemma. So where are we? Above trend like the regression told us, or below trend like the mountain monkey said? Elon, being a gambler, told both. So there must be a way out of this conundrum. Until Musks satellites can give us reception in the forest, no help can come. We must resolve this situation the hard way. Even if SPX is going faster than the log-regression tells us, it loses against Bitcoin. But what can that mean? More questions! SPX is comprised of the largest 500 companies. And they are LARGE. The Big Questions are for the Big Companies. And these guys are high stakes poker players, they don't mess around. It is safe to assume that besides being participants, they are the masters of investing. And of course they follow current investing methods like the Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT). So where am I going with all of this? BlackRock is proposing making the first Bitcoin ETF. So for the first time since its creation, Bitcoin can be a tool of MPT. We can assume that if such a proposal comes to fruition, big players can enjoy the benefits of crypto for the future growth of their companies valuation. In the end, the answer is a question by itself. Which came first, the chicken or the egg? Bitcoin is an instrument of Big Tech. Will the creation consume its creator? Or will Bitcoin be sacrificed for the greater good? Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori
SP:SPX
by akikostas
9
ETH is back to challenge BTC Since progressive negative views about the world economy - altcoins have underperformed significantly against Bitcoin. This includes Ethereum, which many thought would have been a lot closer to overtaking BTC by market cap at this point. The following fundamental and technical reasons are behind my bullishness on ETH/BTC: 3 main TA points - Bullish ETH/BTC weekly graph - Low RSI on ETH/BTC - Last candle closed above critical Fib level on ETH/BTC 3 main FA points - Central Banks world-wide are about to start cutting interest rates, therefore - higher rate of return asset alternatives (bonds) will yield less = additional capital inflow from those assets to crypto - AI hype to spill over to crypto markets - ETH in particular has various uses for AI and/or due to AI hype will be more rapidly utilised. Ethereum trade set-up: Entry: 1916 t/p 1: (25%): 2032 t/p 2: (50%): 2269 t/p 3: (25%): 2439 s/l: : 1784 Thanks for reading. Feel free to leave a comment :)
INDEX:ETHUSDLong
by Sanzhar_m
2
Stubborn MarketsThe markets simply refuse to give up. The birds are speaking to them, but nobody listens. Gold, still living inside a massive bearish wedge pattern, is almost ready to print a death cross. The 1M, 2M and 3M timeframes print a similar picture. The 2M chart is beginning to give in. Volatility between MAs is keeping these still glued together, unable to figure out the next move. Either the best Golden Cross prints or the worst Death is soon to come. Markets are weird. I always found incredibly interesting the period before the .com bubble. Equities had just printed a death cross. After the post-1988 prolonged weakness, all support seemed to have been lost. Instead, the markets boomed. It is at these extremes when the good and bad stuff happens. I am getting annoyed from all the birds speaking, many of them bullish on gold, others bullish on equities. The Gold Bird Everybody wants to keep this fella alive! The SPX Bird Everybody wants to kill this poor fella! With both birds SCREAMING, we cannot reach conclusions. Gold Bulls are buying into their ultimate doom. SPX Bears are selling into one of the most powerful bull runs we have witnessed. It is the duel between them that will clear the picture. Honestly, it looks like a Gold Cross is about to shape for equities, not for Gold! Gold may instead take the black death-ish color. Again, Buffett may be right after all... Japan + Oil = love-4-many-years US Yield Rates show significant signs of strength. The end of the 2nd Big Tech bubble is right around the corner... Bird might be Peter's word. Don't be like Peter. Remember: Trend is the trader's word.
TVC:GOLD
by akikostas
13
Dirty BusinessYesterday I threw away all the indicators I have been using. A lot of dirt has cluttered my screen for too long. I have also made many custom ones, I threw them out too. But I kept just one, a moving average. Every* indicator refers to price after all. In the end, price discounts everything. No price indicator can tell us something price doesn't tell. The sayings of price are hard to understand. That is why most of us use indicators to clear the picture. *Well there are indicators that measure stuff that is not directly embedded into price action like volume, inflation etc. RSI is the most used indicator for like, ever... The same story, told by different indicators. I have heard that the best analysts use very few indicators on their charts. Volume and candle pattern/trend analysis is hardcore. These are some of the very few instruments of an experienced analyst. Indicators are there to help us get some perspective on how prices work. Many of them must be thrown away when an analyst is experienced enough. Clear information is power. But all of that, I didn't know all of this time. After abandoning RSI I sought other methods of analysis. Stochastic RSI and KST prove powerful methods of momentum analysis. In the end, most indicators refer closely to the original price action. It is just the perspective that changes. So what does trend analysis tell us about equities right now? I am purposefully hiding price action. Annoyingly simple. Final chart, Bitcoin: I will keep using a Keltner-ish Channel since it provides a pure, automatic way to get a feel of how far above or below trend we are. Clean up.
SP:SPX
by akikostas
12
American stock exchangeAmerican stock exchange According to the previous analysis, the stock index was able to touch the ceiling of its 170-day ascending channel. Currently, the current candle is being modified. You can wait until the yellow line to enter again. And if you are a risk taker, wait until the purple line. Or enter 50% on the yellow line and the remaining 50% of the position you want on the purple line. - Considering the fundamentals and the stoppage of the increasing trend of bank interest rates, one can hope for a small correction to the mentioned lines and then continue the upward trend.
NASDAQ:IXICLong
by mansour1978
Apple Potential Selling SoonTaking a look into Apple, we have some indicators that we may see some selling here soon. It has formed a descending channel. Indicators: - MACD is in an average area of a bullish move before a sell off. - RSI slightly surpassed the last high of Aug 2022 but it is still not overbought yet, we simply have room to head down if it does. - MFI (Money Flow Index) seems to have peaked and is slightly sinking. Comments: We're still waiting on Apple earnings which have been pushed to May 5th for some reason. We do see a head and shoulders have formed. If we do see a sell off which would need to start soon in order to confirm the prediction, we should see a bounce in the HKEX:138 - HKEX:142 area about a month or two into selling, before heading back down. You can confirm this by looking blue arrows. The bounce typically happens in the same timeframe and percentage down after the selling has begun. Further more, this has been the longest bounce since the selling started in early 2022. This rally has about exhausted itself, especially in the face of decaying economic data. For giggles, I overlaid the Feds Balance Sheet and amazing coincidence when the sheet explodes up, equities also exploded up. The balance sheet rises ALWAYS precedes the markets going up. Tale tale that when Apple started to sell off Feb 23rd, the balance sheet grew THEN Apple's stock prices started to rally yet again. But, as we can see the balance sheet has begun unwinding. Amazing seeing how markets have been weaker and weaker, ending in the red or flat. I believe this is a tale tale sign of another wave down. There is more talk of banking issues, and now commercial real estate issues. Let's see what transpires by summer. The Fed all but confirmed a recession and blamed it on the banking crisis.
NASDAQ:AAPLShort
by WorldEconomics
IXIC is in a bulish chanelNasdaq analysis Since December 28, 2022, when it touched the bottom of the ascending channel, it has continued its upward trend for 153 days with a relatively good slope of 24 degrees and has grown by 29%. Regardless of the current candle, the limits of the index can be considered between the midline and the ceiling of the channel (12793 to 13647). According to the status of the RSI indicator, it is not far-fetched to modify the index up to the midline of the channel. If the midline of the channel is touched, a growth of 6.36% to the ceiling of the channel can be imagined. Don't forget capital management and compliance with risk to reward. Good luck and profitable.
NASDAQ:IXIC
by mansour1978
nasdaq 🌊Greetings, A mirror to my tableau painted for Bitcoin, I surmise that the Nasdaq is engaged in the theatrical rendition of a cycle degree fourth wave. Historically, these fourth waves are prone to a tactical withdrawal into the realm of the prior degree wave four territory. In this distinct instance, the territory in question lurks in close proximity to the abysmal pits of the pandemic nadir. A bullish harbinger would manifest should the Nasdaq maintain an altitude above these pandemic depths for the duration of this bear market. If such a trend is confirmed, i will dare to anticipate an audacious ascent to the lofty summit of $30,000 as we voyage through the decade towards the 2030 agi revolution. --- w4 - $8,100 w5 - $30,000 ☿
NASDAQ:IXICLong
by amethystphantom
BTC = GOLD/DXYHi, DXY (Dollar Strength Index) / GOLD compares USD's performance against the number 1 most correlated asset with BTC --> Gold . DXY is negatively correlated with BTC . The idea is when DXY/GOLD is bullish - USD rises , GOLD falls or both ; which is bearish for BTC . When DXY/GOLD is bearish - USD falls , GOLD rises , or both ; which is bullish for BTC . This theory is in line with both assets' historic correlation with Bitcoin . Since DXY/GOLD's bearish breakout attempt out of the yellow support line on the 1st of April , BTC had a strong bullish sentiment . Nevertheless, since May 16th DXY/GOLD failed to retest to the downside and has returned above the yellow support. Moreover, it rapidly spiked up to its crucial downward-sloping yellow resistance line, as BTC dropped in line with the theory. My personal outlook in the short term is bullish for the spread graph and therefore bearish for BTC . 3 main reasons why: Before full FOREX stability, I expect major economies to be politically focused on their currency strengthening , one side prioritizing de-dollarisation and the other re-dollarisation . Inflationary demand shock is unlikely to hit the safe heaven markets (particularly gold ) any harder than it already did. Historically years/months which are close to the start of heavy recessions have often been bullish , making recent equity and crypto gains hopeless . Both graphs zoomed out: BTC up close: Thank you for your time. Please do share your opinion, I would love to improve this theory further.
CAPITALCOM:DXYShort
by Sanzhar_m
Crypto BreakoutThere is a breakout to the upside shown by the downward-sloping white channel. This marks the beginning of the bull run. The graph is adjusted to volatility accounting from coins' dominance, and economic changes (through accounting for dollar, gold, and bond movements). This graph is universal, use the equation or the graph as you see fit. The dollar value of Bitcoin can be tricky to trace from the graph. I'd recommend translating values to BTCUSD by estimating the %movements and finding the nearest most significant psychological levels. Don't have to be psychological levels, these have just worked better in the past. TP (blue line): 35,000 SL: 25,400
AMEX:CIXLong
by Sanzhar_m
1
Tipple Top or Dead Cat BounceWe're taking a look at Apple here. This ticker has been known as a quality stock that investors flock when other tech stocks take a hit. MACD is playing right there in the middle and this could go either way. Money Flow Index is showing that there could be more up to go. Markets have been rocked by the recent banking crisis that is still not over. We're now learning of First Republic continually collapsing, even with backstops and liquidity pledges from big banks. Perhaps this crisis isn't over yet, and with bets of a 25 basis point hike Wednesday, this could snowball into a bigger crisis, but it's one to watch. Central banks are doing all they can to keep this bubble alive, but with declining economies, it's now a matter of time. Manufacturing, retail, housing, autos, are all down, and continuing downward. Joblessness claims continue upward. Layoffs are increasing. You know how it goes... thoughts?
NASDAQ:AAPL
by WorldEconomics
NASDAQ to see a temporary move lower?NASDAQ - 24h expiry - We look to Buy at 12892 (stop at 12822) Posted Mixed Daily results for the last 6 days. Bespoke support is located at 12892. A move to 13153 will form an intraday bearish Gartley pattern. Preferred trade is to buy on dips. Dip buying offers good risk/reward. Our profit targets will be 13153 and 13235 Resistance: 13100 / 13153 / 13236 Support: 12892 / 12848 / 12650 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
OANDA:NAS100USDLong
by OANDA
Nasdaq to find support at previous highs?NASDAQ - 24h expiry - We look to Buy at 12829 (stop at 12694) A Fibonacci confluence area is located at 13360. Continued downward momentum from 13238 resulted in the pair posting net daily losses yesterday. The move lower is mixed and volatile, common in corrective sequences. Bespoke support is located at 12829. Preferred trade is to buy on dips. Our profit targets will be 13159 and 13249 Resistance: 13238 / 13360 / 13734 Support: 12829 / 12649 / 12483 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
OANDA:NAS100USDLong
by OANDA
Nasdaq to see a higher correction?NASDAQ - 24h expiry - We look to Buy at 12677 (stop at 12577) Traded to the highest level in 30 weeks. There is no clear indication that the upward move is coming to an end. An overnight negative theme in Equities has led to a lower open this morning. Bespoke support is located at 12677. 12682 has been pivotal. Our profit targets will be 12927 and 12977 Resistance: 13025 / 13200 / 13350 Support: 12677 / 12655 / 12513 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
OANDA:NAS100USDLong
by OANDA
Is another bad earnings season upon us? In early February 2023, we outlined how earnings recession was becoming more apparent in the tech sector, with a myriad of companies reporting massive declines in net profit on a yearly basis for 2022. Now, with the upcoming earnings season for the first quarter of 2023, we do not expect the corporate figures to get any better. In fact, we anticipate further declines in corporate profits, more outlook downgrades, and higher operating costs for many tech companies. As a result, we think this season will bring more uncertainty into the market and fortify the notion of unraveling recession in the U.S. economy. As for the short-term, we are unsure how much higher QQQ can go. Therefore we will pay close attention to the price action and volume. At the same time, we will observe QQQ’s ability to hold above the immediate support at $313.68. It will be bullish if it manages to stay above this level. However, a breakdown below it may indicate a reversal on the horizon; in such case, we will observe Support 1 at $310.08 and its ability to stop a price decline. Regarding the upside, we will watch Resistance 1 and Resistance 2 at $321.51 and $334.42. Beyond these short-term and medium-term fluctuations, our outlook remains unchanged. With worsening data in the U.S. economy, we expect something to snap down the road, causing QQQ to revisit its 2022 lows. Our assessment comes from the fact that the market is currently pricing in multiple rate cuts by the end of 2023. However, we do not think the FED will be able to deliver them with persistently high inflation; as a matter of fact, even Jerome Powell dismissed any plans for rate cuts in 2023 during his last FOMC press conference. Moreover, as if it was not enough, the median forecast for the FED funds rate is still above the current rate, suggesting that interest rates should be higher than they are right now. Similarly worrying is FED’s unemployment forecast, which implies a recession since, historically, each 1% increase in unemployment was accompanied by one. Illustration 1.01 The picture above shows the daily chart of QQQ. Red and green arrows depict the relationship between the price and volume. While the recent drop in volume might suggest a decline in selling pressure (after the selloff between February and March 2023), it can also indicate the evaporation of buyers near the current price levels. In general, declining volume and the rising price is questionable development. Therefore, we will keep an eye on this in the following days to get more clues about the whole picture. Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Bullish Weekly time frame = Slightly bullish (weak trend) *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
NASDAQ:QQQ
by Tradersweekly
6
NASDAQ rally to stall at current highs?NASDAQ - 24h expiry - We look to Sell at 12920 (stop at 13090) Posted Mixed Daily results for the last 4 days. The 161.8% Fibonacci extension is located at 12304 from 12972 to 12559. Bespoke support is located at 12277. Selling spikes offers good risk/reward. The bias remains mildly bearish but there is scope for a move in either direction at the open. Our profit targets will be 12510 and 12440 Resistance: 12920 / 12972 / 13360 Support: 12559 / 12305 / 12280 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
OANDA:NAS100USDShort
by OANDA
March 31 - BTC, SPX, DXY31st of March has consistently been either: a sharp turning point, a spike in trend action or a calling for a long-term trend reversal. S&P 500 and Nasdaq have followed this odd tendency correspondingly. For a few significant reasons below, I anticipate this year's 31st of March will astonish many of us. Distinct Timing: Alignment with KEY economic data readings: --> Core PCE Price Index (MoM) is the reading. CNN on this index: "PCE, specifically the core measurement, is the Fed’s favored inflation gauge, since it provides a more complete picture of costs for consumers." Currently, it is undeniably the most significant factor which will drive markets to new equilibriums. Factors including: markets' indecisiveness (particularly large institutions); consistent past increases in the core PCE; and unexpectedly high most recent inflation reading in the UK (actual 10.4 vs expected 9.7) - do not make the next reading seem promising for bulls. --> Eurozone inflation level will be vital, partly due to the mentioned recent surprise from UK's inflation reading. As this could potentially clarify whether the unexpected reading arose from global or solely UK-related factors. Date Alignment: 1/ Last day of the month 2/ Last day of the working week (Friday) 3/ And of course, the day is March 31st :) If you have been following my channel you know how much I love spread graphs. Check out the spread chart's indicators (including 50 SMA, 50 EMA, 200 SMA, and 200 EMA) and its formula below. Same graph (W): Same graph (M): The formula: CRYPTOCAP:BTC*(TVC:GOLD*((TVC:US30Y-TVC:US10Y)*(TVC:US10Y-TVC:US02Y)+10))^-1 Thanks for your time guys! If not for some comments in my last post, I wouldn't have found an error in the formula! So, please comment with any questions, ideas and opinions.
CRYPTOCAP:BTC
by Sanzhar_m
4
Financial Crisis 2023 Firstly, September 2007 - Lehman Brothers collapse March 2023 - Silicon Valley Bank collapse Asset correlations (bottom pane): Gold ( red ) - on a slow rise in 2007, same as today Dollar strength ( blue ) - bearish in 2007, same as today Nasdaq (orange) - bearish in 2007, same as today Indicators' inference : The top pane shows a logarithmic version of an indicator called MACD leader (zero lag). 2006 - 2007 and 2022 - 2023 have so far been the only years which produce inconclusive monthly signals since 1988. The middle pane's aim is to signal simultaneous movements of securities and spread graph equations. Each line represents the correlation coefficient between the main chart and a financial instrument. Spread graphs attempt to illustrate peaks in inflows/outflows from equities --> safe heavens through correlation. Similar to spread graph equations, the idea of accounting for the movement of capital to different assets was applied to make the main chart: TVC:IXIC*10000000*((TVC:US30Y-TVC:US10Y+TVC:US10Y-TVC:US02Y+5)*TVC:GOLD)^-1 Finally, Current Retest(D): Same chart - Longer Period (3M): Feel free to drop a question. Thanks for your time!
TVC:IXICShort
by Sanzhar_m
20