Get started

Nasdaq Composite Index CFD

Daily Market Update for 3/16Trend lines drawn from the 3/5 low (8d), 3/10 (5d) and today 3/16 (1d). Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, March 16, 2021 Facts: +0.09%, Volume lower, Closing range: 33%, Body: 23% Good: Higher high, higher low, successful test of 50d MA Bad: Low closing range, longer upper wick, could not hold morning rally Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Thin red body underneath a long upper wick Advance/Decline: Over three declining stocks for every advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (-0.16%), DJI (-0.39%), RUT (-1.72%), VIX (-1.20%) Sectors: Communications (XLC +1.05%) and Technology (XLK +0.75%) were top. Industrials (XLI -1.42%) and Energy (XLE -2.85%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview An attempted rally in the morning sold off as investors reacted to disappointing economic data, both for February retails sales and industrial and manufacturing production. Gains were limited to fewer stocks and dominated by mega-caps. The Nasdaq closed with a +0.09% gain, but that was down from a 1.19% gain earlier in the day. After testing the 50d MA, the index bounced back up to close a bit below where it opened and leaving behind a 23% red body. The 33% closing range is not great, but the volume was lower than the previous day and lower than average. There were over three declining stocks for every advancing stock. The other major indexes all lost. The S&P 500 (SPX) lost -0.16%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) lost -0.39%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) was the worst performer with a -1.72% decline. The VIX volatility index declined -1.20%. Communications (XLC +1.05%) and Technology (XLK +0.75%) were top. Industrials (XLI -1.42%) and Energy (XLE -2.85%) were bottom. All of the cyclicals (Energy, Financials, Industrials and Materials) lost as well as Consumer Discretionary. These sectors were impacted by the disappointing economic data in the morning. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) gained +0.09%. The US 30y and 10y treasury bond yields rose slightly, but seem to be leveling off. US 2y bond yields remained flat. High Yield Corporate Bonds (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) both declined today. The spread between corporate and treasury bonds remain about the same. Silver (SILVER) declined while Gold (GOLD) advanced. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) declined. Timber (WOOD) advanced. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) declined. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio is at 0.644. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. The CNN Fear & Greed index is moving back toward neutral. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Keeping this update brief during vacation, but keep an eye on the mega-caps as they influence the indexes. The mega-caps overall did well today with the majority ending the day with gains. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead On Wednesday, we'll get news on Building Permits and Housing Starts before the market opens. After the opening bell, Crude Oil Inventories will be released. The FOMC will meeting tomorrow. In the afternoon, their economic projections and interest rate projections will be released. This will be the biggest economic news of the day and set the stage for the next moves in both bonds and equity markets. Will the Fed make investors more or less confident in the stability of yields and the US dollar. Wednesday's earnings reports will include Pinduoduo (PDD), BMW ADR (BMWYY), Cintas (CTAS), Five Below (FIVE). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The index was able to stay above the 50d MA showing some support at that level. The support only really matters, if news from the FOMC meeting remains positive and confident. The trend line from the 3/5 bottom points to a +1.51% gain while the five-day points to a +0.93% advance. The trend from today is downward and if it continues, the one-day trends line points to a -1.23% loss. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up This morning's economic news was a bit of a shock for investors who were expecting better numbers pointing to the economic recovery. Instead it showed the recovery slowing in speed and raising some alarms. The reaction was negative but also showed some caution from overreacting as there is more to come this week with the FOMC meeting. Despite the economic data, yields did not move much. One might have expected them to come down a bit more given the perception the economic recovery is not overheating and inflation may not accelerate. But all eyes really are going to be on the Fed. What adjustments will they make to the outlook for economic growth this year? Will they even hint at changes in monetary policy? Will this be the start of the next "Taper Tantrum"? Tomorrow we will have a lot to digest. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
8
Amazon (AMZN), DJI, IXIC, SPX, XAUUSD, USOIL - March 16Hello? Dear traders, nice to meet you. By "following" you can always get new information quickly. Please also click "Like". Have a good day. -------------------------------------------------- ----- You should watch for any movement that deviates from the 3008.91-3104.0 segment. If you fall in the 2961.97-3008.91 area, you can touch the 2734.40 point, so you need to trade carefully. We have to see if it can rise above the 3176.40 point in order to turn to an uptrend. ---------------------------------- (DJI 1D chart) It started with the gap (32778.6-32798.8) rising and closed at 0.53%. ------------------------------- (IXIC 1D chart) It started with an increase in the gap (13319.9-13323.5) and closed at 1.05%. ------------------------------- (SPX 1D chart) It started with a drop in the gap (3943.3-3943.0) and closed at 0.65%. ------------------------------- (XAUUSD 1D chart) We must see if we can ascend above the 1731.106 point. ------------------------------------ (USOIL 1D chart) We have to see if we can get support at 65.03 and rise above 69.40. It remains to be seen if volatility around March 24 could drop below the uptrend line (3). -------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------------------- ** All indicators are lagging indicators. So, it's important to be aware that the indicator moves accordingly with the movement of price and volume. Just for convenience, we are talking upside down for interpretation of the indicators. ** The wRSI_SR indicator is an indicator created by adding settings and options from the existing Stochastic RSI indicator. Therefore, the interpretation is the same as the conventional stochastic RSI indicator. (K, D line -> R, S line) ** The OBV indicator was re-created by applying a formula to the DepthHouse Trading indicator, an indicator that oh92 disclosed. (Thank you for this.) ** Check support, resistance, and abbreviation points. ** Support or resistance is based on the closing price of the 1D chart. ** All explanations are for reference only and do not guarantee profit or loss on investment. Explanation of abbreviations displayed on the chart R: A point or section of resistance that requires a response to preserve profits S-L: Stop Loss point or section S: A point or segment that can be bought for profit generation as a support point or segment (Short-term Stop Loss can be said to be a point where profits and losses can be preserved or additionally entered through installment transactions. It is a short-term investment perspective.) GAP refers to the difference in prices that occurred when the stock market, CME, and BAKKT exchanges were closed because they do not trade 24 hours a day. G1: Closing price when closed G2: Cigar at the time of opening (Example) Gap (G1-G2)
NASDAQ:AMZN
by readCrypto
1
The Scariest Chart in Dow Jones This is the Log chart of where we are right now scrolled back over a 100 years. We all know how important trendlines are, and the first time we touch a trendline, we will expect rejections from the trendline. Currently the DJI sits about ~600 points away from the trendline from the time of writing. The trendline high sits at about ~33500 points (we are not far away) If we do get rejections from the trendline, we can see a rather nice correction in the stock market. The recent selloff was very much only in the growth stocks sector, Indices like SPX & DJI have barely budged (in fact we have seen a rotation into DJI). Expect a correction in the overall stock market very soon within a few months time. How big and how deep we go no one knows.
TVC:DJI
by MARKIOASH
Daily Market Update for 3/15Trend lines drawn from the 3/5 low (7d), 3/9 (5d) and today 3/15 (1d). Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, March 15, 2021 Facts: +1.05%, Volume higher, Closing range: 100%, Body: 73% Good: Close above last week's high and back above 50d MA Bad: Nothing Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: No upper wick, most green body over lower wick Advance/Decline: About even advancing and declining stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.65%), DJI (+0.53%), RUT (+0.31%), VIX (-3.19%) Sectors: Consumer Discretionary (XLY +1.34%) and Utilities (XLU +1.28%) were top. Financials (XLF -0.58%) and Energy (XLE -1.14%) Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview It was a relatively smooth start to the week as bond yields stayed fairly tame compared to previous weeks. That allowed the tech heavy Nasdaq to continue a rally to catch up with the other indexes. There is still more catchup to do as the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial average and Russell 2000 set new all-time highs. After a brief test of the 21d EMA line, the Nasdaq rallied into close for a +1.05% gain on higher volume. The volume increased as the index moved up in the last 30 minutes of trading to end the day with a 100% closing range. The 73% green body is above a lower wick formed from some selling before noon. There were about the same number of advancing stocks as declining stocks. The S&P 500 (SPX) gained +0.65%. The Dow Jones Industrial (DJI) had an early morning rally that sold off, but then was able to recover and close the day with +0.53% gains. The Russell 2000 (RUT) closed the day with a +0.31% advance, but only after visiting intraday lows twice in a choppy session The VIX volatility index declined -3.19%. Consumer Discretionary (XLY +1.34%) and Utilities (XLU +1.28%) were the top sectors. Utilities (XLU) was near the top of the sector list last week during the back and forth rotation. Financials (XLF -0.58%) and Energy (XLE -1.14%) were at the bottom of the list for today. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) gained +0.16%. We will continue to watch treasury bond yields today. The US 30y and 10y treasury bond yields declined slightly while the 2y yield increased, helping to flatten the curve a bit. However the yield curve remains steep. High Yield Corporate Bonds (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) both increased for another day. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) advanced. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) declined. Timber (WOOD) pulled back from highs. Copper (COPPER1!) declined while Aluminum (ALI1!) advanced. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio is at 0.523. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. The CNN Fear & Greed index is moving back toward the greed level. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Keeping this update brief during vacation, but keep an eye on the mega-caps as they influence the indexes. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Retail Sales data will be released Tuesday before market open. Industrial Production data will also be released, both indicating the pace at which economic activity is recovering. Volkswagen (VWAGY) will report earnings on Tuesday. In addition, FUTU Holdings (FUTU), Coupa Software (COUP), Jabil Circuit (JBL), Eastman Kodak (KODK) will report. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The index moved back above the 50d MA which should provide some support. The trend line from the 3/5 bottom points to a +0.97% gain while the five-day and one-day trends lines point to a +0.26% gain. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Bond investors have calmed a bit, allowing the longer term bond yields to settle a big. I'll be keeping a close eye on the yields for the coming week at they are having a big influence on tech and growth stocks, which impacts the Nasdaq. The expectation for tomorrow is for sideways or higher. If the index can follow-through with the expectation, it can start to work toward the all-time high. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
2
Market Week In Review - 3/8/2021 - 3/12/2021The Market Week in Review is my weekend homework where I look over what happened in the previous week and what might come in the next week. It helps me evaluate my observations, recognize new data points, and create a plan for possible scenarios in the future. I do occasionally have some errors or typos and will correct them in my blog or in the comments on TradingView. I do not have an editor and do this in my free time. If you find this helpful, please let me know in the comments. I am also more than happy to add new perspectives and data points if you have ideas. The structure is the following: A recap of the daily updates that I do here on TradingView. The Meaning of Life, a view on the past week What's coming in the next week The Bullish View, The Bearish View Key index levels to watch out for Wrap-up If you have been following my daily updates, you can skip down to the “The Meaning of Life”. If not, then this first part is a great play-by-play recap for the week. Click the original charts for more detail each day. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, March 8, 2021 Facts: -2.41%, Volume lower, Closing range: 2%, Body: 73% Good: Held above 12,600 as market closed Bad: Could not hold short rally in morning, selling the rest of afternoon Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Short upper wick over a thick red body, no lower wick Advance/Decline: More than one declining stock for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-0.54%), DJI (+0.97%), RUT (+0.49%), VIX (+3.28%) Sectors: Utilities (XLU +1.41%) and Materials (XLB +1.34%) were the top sectors. Communications (XLC -1.34%) and Technology (XLK -2.42%) were bottom. Expectation: Lower The rotation continues. It's not often that a rotation is so clearly seen, with the Dow Jones ending the day up nearly 1% and the Nasdaq ending the day down 2.41%. Nine sectors outperformed the broader S&P 500 index, while the other two sectors lost enough to bring down the index for a loss by the end of the day. The Nasdaq closed the day with a -2.41% loss on lower volume. The closing range of 2% followed an afternoon of selling that formed the 73% red body underneath a small upper wick from the short morning rally. There were more declining stocks than advancing stocks. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, March 9, 2021 Facts: +3.69%, Volume higher, Closing range: 71%, Body: 56% Good: Good gain on higher volume, higher high, higher low, above 13k Bad: Selling in last hour of day Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Slightly longer upper wick with a thick green body Advance/Decline: Two advancing stocks for every declining stock Indexes: SPX (+1.42%), DJI (+0.10%), RUT (+1.91%), VIX (-5.65%) Sectors: Consumer Discretionary (XLY +3.78%) and Technology (XLK +3.40%) were the top sectors. Financials (XLF -0.91%) and Energy (XLE -1.75%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher The rotation reverses. Today saw a reversal of the past several days rotation as money flooded back into big tech, consumer discretionary, and growth stocks. Treasury bond yields seemed to stabilize a bit allowing investors to turn their eyes on the stimulus and the impact it will have on performance in the near term. The Nasdaq closed with +3.69% gain on higher volume. The closing range of 72% came after some selling in the final hour of trading, forming the upper wick. The green body covers 56% of the candle and represents a day that was dominated by the bulls. There were two advancing stocks for every declining stock. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, March 10, 2021 Facts: -0.04%, Volume lower, Closing range: 14%, Body: 69% Good: Higher high, higher low, support above 13,000 Bad: Rejection off 21d EMA in morning led to selling and close near low Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Thick red body with small upper and lower wicks, low closing range Advance/Decline: More advancing stocks than declining stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.60%), DJI (+1.46%), RUT (+1.81%), VIX (-6.12%) Sectors: Energy (XLE +2.53%) and Financials (XLF +2.04%) were back on top. Technology (XLK -0.40%) was bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower The rotation settles. There was still signs of rotation in the market today, with the sector list flipping once again. But the effect is much more subdued than the past week. The passing of the stimulus has investors eyes wide open while they sent the Dow Jones Industrial to all-time highs. The Nasdaq was not able to benefit from the enthusiasm as it declined -0.04%. A sideways move, but still a day marked by selling after a morning gap-up. The closing range of 14% is underneath a thick red body of 69% and slightly longer upper wick formed just after the market opened. There were more advancing stocks than declining stocks, however volume on declining stocks was higher. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, March 11, 2021 Facts: +2.52%, Volume lower, Closing range: 81%, Body: 67% Good: Another higher high and higher low, back above 21d EMA and 50d MA Bad: Not much, resistance at 13,400 Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Thick red body with small upper and lower wicks, low closing range Advance/Decline: Almost three advancing stocks for every declining stock Indexes: SPX (+1.04%), DJI (+0.58%), RUT (+2.31%), VIX (-2.88%) Sectors: Technology (XLK +2.14%) and Communications (XLC +1.89%) were top. Utilities (XLU -0.26%) and Financials (XLF -0.29%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher The back and forth continues as the Nasdaq and technology stocks rise again. The sector list has flipped back and forth the last several days as investors rotate in and out of big tech and growth stocks. Today, the market rallied as jobs reports showed positive gains in the labor market and the stimulus is proceeding to Biden's signature. Technology was back on top while Financials moved to the bottom. The Nasdaq closed with a +2.52% gain on lower volume. The 67% green body was formed in the morning as the index quickly rose to intraday highs around 13,400 and stayed there the rest of the day. The short upper wick is above an 81% closing range. There were almost three advancing stocks for every declining stock. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, March 12, 2021 Facts: -0.59%, Volume lower, Closing range: 97%, Body: 58% Good: Bulls bought back the morning lows to bring index back above 21d EMA Bad: Lower high and lower low Highs/Lows: Lower high, lower low Candle: Green body above a lower wick with very small upper wick Advance/Decline: About even advancing and declining stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.10%), DJI (+0.90%), RUT (+0.61%), VIX (-5.57%) Sectors: Real Estate (XLRE +1.72%) and Utilities (XLU +1.35%) were top. Communications (XLC -0.28%) and Technology (XLK -0.72%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher Are you dizzy yet? This rotation just won't end. Every day this week the Technology sector flipped from the bottom of the sector list to the top and then the next day to the bottom. Yesterday it was at the top. Today it's back at the bottom. As long term bond yields are reaching for pre-pandemic highs, investors are still trying to determine the impact on valuations of big tech and growth stocks. The Nasdaq closed the week with a green candle, but ended the day with a -0.59% decline. Volume was lower but the bulls bought up a morning dip to bring the index back above the 21d EMA in the afternoon. A closing range of 97% means a very small upper wick. The longer lower wick rests underneath a 58% green body. There were about the same number of advancing and declining stocks. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Meaning of Life (View on the Week) It was a wild week of rotation instigated by volatility in the treasury bond markets. Economists and investors weighed the impact of stimulus on inflation, currencies, bonds and equities. The outcomes could have opposite effects on different sectors. Technology and Communications, that have growth mega-caps, could be negatively impacted by higher yields, raising the costs of borrowing money to drive growth. Financials could benefit from the higher yields driving interest rates and additional revenue on both mortgages and commercial borrowing. The winners from the stimulus bill will be industrials and materials as the economy returns to pre-pandemic levels and these sectors benefit. The market made that clear as the Dow Jones Industrial gained 1% on Monday while the Nasdaq declined -2.41%. Utilities, Industrials and Materials were top sectors along with Financials. All cyclicals, but as the first three would remain steady throughout the week, Financials was up and down depending on bond performance. But it also seemed no one was quite ready to give up on big tech and growth stocks. Tuesday was "buy the dip" day, sending the Technology sector back to the top of the list. Growth companies like Tesla (TSLA) gained 20%, rebounding off recent lows. The four big mega-caps all closed the day with gains. Financials and Energy moved to the bottom of the sector list. The 3y note auction brought some optimism back to the bond market, bringing yields back down from recent gains. The 10y auction on Wednesday also brought some confidence back to the bonds market. Yields on treasury bonds pulled back a little. But even as yields came down, the yield curve steepened. A steep yield curve forecasts higher interest rates and could mean other monetary policy changes from the Fed. That's where the fear is focused. Technology moved back to the bottom of the sector list on Wednesday. A quick refresh on the yield curve. The yield of a treasury bond can be viewed as the level of risk investors see in the bond. Shorter term bonds are paid back quickly and therefore investors usually assign lower risk and therefore require lower yields. Longer term bonds are viewed with higher risk, there's more time between now and the maturity date of the bond for something happening that will impact the value, so yields are higher. Risk/reward. The yield curve is a plotting of the interest rates from short term to long term. When the yield curve is normal, there should be an upward sloping curve. From the shortest term bonds to the middle term, yields will accelerate. As you move past the middle, the longer the maturity date moves out the difference in yields level off. An inverted yield curve shows the opposite and means that there is much more risk in the short term than the long term, so yields are higher on short term bonds. What we are seeing this week is normal in that short term yields are lower than long term, but the curve is unusually steep. It's at its steepest slope since 2015/16. Investors see short term bonds as much safer than long term bonds, likely on the optimism of the short term economic recovery this year. Longer term, investors are more uncertain. What will happen to the dollar? When will the fed stop its easy money policy? So there is less demand for long term bonds, investors selling, bond prices drop, and yields go up. If the fed wants to get revenues from selling 10y, 20y, 30y bonds, what do they need to do? They need to entice bond investors by covering the risk with greater reward. They need to either stop injecting money into the economy which is devaluing the dollar (and making long term bonds risky), increase purchases of longer term bonds to control the yield curve, or they need to raise interest rates. Regardless of comments from the fed that they are not concerned with the increasing yields, it has investors spooked, sending them back and forth between fear and greed. Technology was back on top on Thursday. Long term yields were higher, but seemed under control. Friday Technology was back to the bottom, but after a morning dip, buyers brought the Nasdaq back up to close near an intraday high. Despite the yield curve steepening again with the 30y and 10y yields hitting their highest since early 2020, inflation numbers and consumer sentiment were better than expected. That was enough to give bullish investors optimism and end the week with the DJI and RUT at all time-highs and the SPX knocking on the door. Despite all the turmoil, the Nasdaq closed the week with a +3.09% gain on slightly lower volume. The closing range of 86% is far better than the previous weeks. The index had a higher low but a lower high, making this an inside week. I've redrawn the channel from the March bottom. If the index can stay in this channel, then it would seem the economic outlook has been priced into big tech and growth stocks, and the index can start to follow along with the gains we've seen in the Dow Jones Industrial and Russell 2000. The S&P 500 (SPX) advanced +2.64%. The Dow Jones Industrial average (DJI) gained 4.07%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) gained 7.32% for the week. The VIX volatility index closed the week with a -16.10% decline. It was a wild week for the sectors as investors rotated in and out of Technology and Communications stocks. All sectors ended the week with gains. Consumer Discretionary ( XLY ) was the big winner. Large stimulus checks will be delivered soon that are expected to be poured into the economy via consumer spending on both needs and wants. Technology ( XLK ) and Communications ( XLC ) spent Monday at the bottom of the sector list, Tuesday at the top, Wednesday at the bottom, Thursday at the top, and Friday at the bottom. In the end, the two sectors landed just behind the SPX in performance, but did have gains for the day. Financials ( XLF ) was also one to watch. It flipped back and forth as investors followed closely what was happening in the bond markets. The increase in yields could be a boon for Financials. The increased yields would have the opposite impact on big technology and communications companies and smaller growth companies. As yields went back and forth, so did the performance of these sectors. Energy ( XLE ) ended the week as the worst sector. Although it had a big gain on Wednesday, it wasn't enough to cover the losses on Monday and Tuesday. Utilities ( XLU ) and Real Estate ( XLRE ) did not have any big days, but were on a steady rise throughout the week. They ended the week in 2nd and 3rd place on the list. The two sectors are often used as defensive plays. Steep yield curve. You can see the spread between the US 10y and 2y treasury bond yields in the top chart, also marked with a green horizontal line so you can see just how long since the spread has been that wide. Also note that US 30y and 10y yields are back to pre-pandemic levels. Inflation and the possibility of a weakening US dollar means long term bonds are out of vogue. High Yields Corporate Bonds (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) corporate bond prices both declined for the week. The spread between corporate bonds and short term treasury bonds remain about the same. The US Dollar (DXY) pulled back from the recent gains, declining -0.32% for the week. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) both advanced for the week. Crude Oil Futures (CRUDEOIL1!) declined just slightly from its highest point since 2018. Timber (WOOD) advanced and is trading at all-time highs. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) both declined but are still in upward trending channels. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Big Four Mega-caps The four big mega-caps had mixed results for the week. Microsoft (MSFT) and Amazon (AMZN) closed the week with +1.79% and 2.97% gains. Amazon likely got a boost from the stimulus checks expected to increase consumer spending while people are still nervous to shop at brick-and-mortar stores. Apple (AAPL) lost -0.32% for the week. Alphabet (GOOGL) was down-2.24%. Microsoft and Alphabet are trading above 10w and 40w moving average lines. Apple is trading below the 10w MA line and Amazon is trading below both the 10w and 40w moving average liens. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Four Recovery Stocks I picked four recovery stocks to track against the indexes and other indicators in this report. This week all four had gains. Carnival Cruise Lines (CCL) gained over 9% this week. Delta Airlines (DAL) advanced +7.83%. Marriott International (MAR) gained +2.23%. Exxon Mobil gained +1.71%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio (PCCE) ended the week at 0.606, showing investors getting a little more bullish. A contrarian indicator, when the put/call ratio is below 0.7, it signals overly bullish sentiment which typically proceeds a pullback in the market. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved toward the greed side. The surprise was seeing the NAAIM exposure index go down to 0.48. That's a fairly low level and indicates nervousness from institutional investors. If exposure to equities by money managers is below 50%, then what is driving prices higher? -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Week Ahead Monday's TIC Net Long-Term Transactions data will give an idea of how much investor money is flowing in and our of US markets. More inflows means foreign investors are buying US equities and as a proxy, buying the US dollar to buy those equities. On the other side, US investors may be buying more foreign equities, using those markets currencies. Retail Sales data will be released Tuesday before market open. Industrial Production data will also be released, both indicating the pace at which economic activity is recovering. On Wednesday, we'll get news on Building Permits and Housing Starts before the market opens. After the opening bell, Crude Oil Inventories will be released. In the afternoon, FOMC economic projections and interest rate projections will be released. The weekly initial jobless claims data will be released on Thursday. Manufacturing data will also be released that will provide insight into how manufacturing is recovering to meet demand. Monday's earning reports will include a couple interesting small-caps: Vuzix (VUZI) and Desktop Metal (DM). Volkswagen (VWAGY) will report on Tuesday. In addition, FUTU Holdings (FUTU), Coupa Software (COUP), Jabil Circuit (JBL), Eastman Kodak (KODK) will report. Wednesday will include Pinduoduo (PDD), BMW ADR (BMWYY), Cintas (CTAS), Five Below (FIVE). On Thursday, Nike (NIKE), Accenture (ACN), FedEx (FDX), Dollar General (DG), Weibo Corp (WB), Utz Brands (UTZ) will report. Be sure to check your portfolio for upcoming earnings reports. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Bullish Side Did you see the Dow Jones Industrial average index? Six consecutive days of gains to set a new all-time high to close the week! The stimulus, passed through congress and signed by President Biden, is a huge amount of support to the economic recovery. Industrial stocks and small-caps are going to lead the charge and eventually the economics will be priced into big tech and growth stocks and they will join the rally. Never fight the fed. The Fed is continuing easy monetary policy that is fueling massive liquidity in the market. Many weekly charts look good. It's always important to take a step back and look beyond the daily turmoil. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Bearish Side Treasury bonds continue to have unusual volatility. Bond investors don't like volatility. Note only does it make it harder to use in hedging strategies, but popular trading strategies using multiple maturities of bonds become more difficult. The steepening curve Is an indicator of future interest rate increases, that will continue to worry equity investors away from the tech mega-caps and growth stocks. That will have an overweight influence on indexes and impact investor sentiment. The NAAIM exposure index doesn't represent all institutional investors, but it is an indicator of professional portfolio managers sentiment toward the market. At less than 50% exposure, one must question what is driving prices higher. It could be retail traders and passive indexation that is driving the current rally. That may be a recipe for disaster. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Key Nasdaq Levels to Watch Although the broader market is clearly not in correction, the Nasdaq is still lagging behind the other indexes. To build confidence in big tech and growth stocks traded on the Nasdaq, some gains on higher volume is required. If key levels on the downside breakdown, we can expect the big players in the Nasdaq to also pull down the other indexes. On the positive side: The Nasdaq closed above the 21d EMA on Friday, but below the 50d MA. That's the first key level to pass for next week. That level is at 13,367.48. Last week's high is at 13,601.33. This week could not make a new high, so having the index make that milestone next week will be important. 14,000 will be the next area of resistance. The all-time high is at 14,175.12. That might be a stretch to get there this week, but keep it in our sites. On the downside, there are several key levels to raise caution flags: Stay above the 21d EMA which is a currently at 13,290.28. The 10d MA is at 13,105.93. Going below this line will be a red flag. If the index has a pull back, the 13,000 is a support area that must hold. 12,599.23 is the low from this week. Stay above that level to make a higher low. The next support area is 12,500-12,550. 12,397.05 is the current bottom of the correction on the Nasdaq. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up This was a week that reminded us to take a step back and look at the weekly charts. The Nasdaq chopped back and forth, that seems like losses. But on the weekly chart, the index had a good gain with a great closing range. At the same time, the choppiness may continue into the coming week and cause investors to get overly nervous. Although the other major indexes are performing well, eventually the big players in the Nasdaq could pull down those indexes as well. It's important to avoid predictions. Instead, set some expectations for what you might think will happen. Watch those key levels in the Nasdaq, and follow the price action of the index and your favorite stocks. Keep stop losses up to date to protect from a sudden turn to the downside. But lets hope for upside. The report is a bit brief this week since I'm heading out to vacation. I hope you have a great week ahead! I'll be trading from the beach. :) Good luck, stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
12
ADBE Further Downside?Looking at a triple top for ADBE in day view, followed by a breakdown below both the 20 and 200 day MA. Looks to have found support at 420, but hit the top of the downward trend line and is sitting at a previously established support level around 445. If ADBE fails to break up and follows the downward trend line, it will be forced to retest 420. If it fails and breaks down, the next support is at 385 and is weak, with the next strong support being around 320 from all the way back in April '20. If 420 fails, there is a probable 5% downside and possible 13%, if not more. The RSI is showing weakness, while the Stoch, MACD, and Madrid sentiment are all beginning to do the same. I will be watching for a potential short opportunity in the next few days. Many other charts, including TSLA, AMZN, NFLX, PYPL, NVDA, AAPL, PDD, ASML, are all showing similar weakness (the largest caps on the IXIC), while INTC is failing to break up through its most recent resistance. CMCSA, another large cap IXIC, appears to be strong but showing overbought on the RSI and Stoch. Buckle up, it could be a rough week.
NASDAQ:ADBEShort
by hobo4000
SPY/DIA Volume DivergenceDivergence continues to build between buying volume and valuation in the combined SPY/DIA chart. I believe this indicates buyer fatigue in the sectors that have seen a bull run after the tech selloff. This, along with TNX jumps continuing to drive the IXIC down, could indicate imminent trouble in the general markets. It doesn't seem that the SPY/DIA can keep up enough to counter balance the drops in the IXIC to maintain overall market stability. If the TNX continues to rise and the IXIC continues to be driven down, I believe the SPY/DIA will eventually break the bullish trend and begin its own pullback, which could cascade into a full market correction or worse. If the TNX flattens out and stabilizes, I will be looking for the IXIC to double top, failing to break past its last peak, which will indicate that the market is not as strong as it has been. This could likely cause a rush of fear selling, causing a sharp decline, which would cause margin calls, with further downside. The SPY/DIA will most likely be dragged into this fear and downward momentum as they are still trading 17% above their last pre COVID support. This is further supported by the monthly IXIC indicating it being overbought on RSI and Stoch 14/3/3, along with the February candle forming a shooting star, and March forming a hanging man so far, both indicators of a bearish reversal. I will be looking to maintain liquidity past the week of 3/15, and planning on shorting the QQQ in the event of a double top as well as buying into UBT in the event of a full market correction or crash.
AMEX:SPYShort
by hobo4000
7
Daily Market Update for 3/12Trend lines drawn from the 2/16 ATH (19d), 3/8 (5d) and today 3/12 (1d).   Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, March 12, 2021 Facts: -0.59%, Volume lower, Closing range: 97%, Body: 58% Good: Bulls bought back the morning lows to bring index back above 21d EMA Bad: Lower high and lower low Highs/Lows: Lower high, lower low Candle: Green body above a lower wick with very small upper wick Advance/Decline: About even advancing and declining stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.10%), DJI (+0.90%), RUT (+0.61%), VIX (-5.57%) Sectors: Real Estate (XLRE +1.72%) and Utilities (XLU +1.35%) were top. Communications (XLC -0.28%) and Technology (XLK -0.72%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Are you dizzy yet? This rotation just won't end. Every day this week the Technology sector flipped from the bottom of the sector list to the top and then the next day to the bottom. Yesterday it was at the top. Today it's back at the bottom. As long term bond yields are reaching for pre-pandemic highs, investors are still trying to determine the impact on valuations of big tech and growth stocks. The Nasdaq closed the week with a green candle, but ended the day with a -0.59% decline. Volume was lower but the bulls bought up a morning dip to bring the index back above the 21d EMA in the afternoon. A closing range of 97% means a very small upper wick. The longer lower wick rests underneath a 58% green body. There were about the same number of advancing and declining stocks. The Dow Jones Industrial average (DJI) and Russell 2000 (RUT) both made new all-time highs. The big industrial stocks of the DJI and small-caps of the RUT are likely to benefit the most from the new stimulus and recovering economy. The DJI closed with a 0.90% gain while the RUT advanced +0.61%. The S&P 500 (SPX) ended the day with a 0.10% gain. The VIX volatility index declined -5.57%. Real Estate (XLRE +1.72%) tops the sector list despite rising yields. With consumer sentiment on the rise, it could be a boon for real estate. Utilities (XLU +1.35%) and Industrials (XLI +1.34%) are also at the top. Communications (XLC -0.28%) and Technology (XLK -0.72%) moved back to the bottom. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) gained +0.27%. Yields on the 30y and 10y treasury bonds both rose to new recent highs. The 30y yield is at its highest point since January 2020, while the 10y is at its highest point since early February 2020. The 2y yield rose modestly for the day. The yield curve is at its steepest since 2016. A steep yield curve means rising interest rates in the future. High Yield Corporate Bonds (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) both declined for another day. Silver (SILVER) declined while and Gold (GOLD) advanced. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) remained about even. Timber (WOOD) continues to advance. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) declined. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio rose to 0.606. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. The CNN Fear & Greed index is moving back toward the greed level. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders The four big mega-caps have been back and forth all week. Today they all declined. Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet (GOOGL) declined -0.58% and -2.41%, but remain above their key moving average lines. Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN) declined -0.76% and -0.77% and are below their 21d EMA and 50d MA lines. New Oriental Ed (EDU) was the top mega-cap stock of the day with a +4.55% gain. Bank of America (BAC), Home Depot (HD) and Walmart (WMT) round out the top four, each with gains greater than 1.51%. Alibaba (BABA), Alphabet, and Facebook (FB) were at the bottom of the list with 2% or more declines. Some growth stocks did well. SNAP (SNAP) had a great day with a +5.15% gain. Ehang Holdings (EH), Palantir (PLTR) and Grow Generation (GRWG) all had gains, albeit modest compared to recent history, at around 0.5% to 0.75%. DataDog (DDOG) , Okta (OKTA), Peloton (PTON) and JD.com (JD) were at the bottom of the growth list. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead The short-term 3 month and 6 month bill auctions will be on Monday. Late in the after TIC Net Long-Term Transactions will show how much investors are trading in foreign securities markets (both inbound and outbound to the US). The number is directly linked to currencies since the investors first need to buy the local currency before investing. Monday's earning reports will include a couple interesting small-caps: Vuzix (VUZI) and Desktop Metal (DM). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The index dipped back below the 21d EMA and 50d MA lines, but was able to close above the 21d EMA. The five-day trend line points to a +1.51% advance while the one-day trend line points toa a +0.63% advance. Both would be moves back above the 50d MA. The longer trend-line from the 2/16 ATH points to a -3.72% decline, moving the index back below the 13,000 area. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up It's been a wild week and I'm glad the weekend is here. The up and down of Technology and Growth stocks left investors not sure whether to be in or out of the action. If you found other plays in industrials or cyclical stocks, you might have had a great week. I used the Nasdaq as the basis for the daily update because it represents most closely the stocks I invest in. But keep in mind that the Dow Jones Industrial average and the Russell 2000 are hitting new all-time highs. The S&P 500 index is also near new all-time highs. Once the rotation settles, we should see the Nasdaq start to move along more closely with the other indexes. Even with the choppy week, the Nasdaq does close the week with gains over last week. Check your watch lists and find stocks that are acting pretty well compared to their peers and the market. I found the DELL chart recently and it seems DELL didn't get the memo for the tech correction. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
2
Daily Market Update for 3/11Trend lines drawn from the 2/16 ATH (17d), 3/4 (5d) and today 3/10 (1d).   Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, March 11, 2021 Facts: +2.52%, Volume lower, Closing range: 81%, Body: 67% Good: Another higher high and higher low, back above 21d EMA and 50d MA Bad: Not much, resistance at 13,400 Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Thick red body with small upper and lower wicks, low closing range Advance/Decline: Almost three advancing stocks for every declining stock Indexes: SPX (+1.04%), DJI (+0.58%), RUT (+2.31%), VIX (-2.88%) Sectors: Technology (XLK +2.14%) and Communications (XLC +1.89%) were top. Utilities (XLU -0.26%) and Financials (XLF -0.29%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The back and forth continues as the Nasdaq and technology stocks rise again. The sector list has flipped back and forth the last several days as investors rotate in and out of big tech and growth stocks. Today, the market rallied as jobs reports showed positive gains in the labor market and the stimulus is proceeding to Biden's signature. Technology was back on top while Financials moved to the bottom. The Nasdaq closed with a +2.52% gain on lower volume. The 67% green body was formed in the morning as the index quickly rose to intraday highs around 13,400 and stayed there the rest of the day. The short upper wick is above an 81% closing range. There were almost three advancing stocks for every declining stock. All four major indexes gained for the day with the Russell 2000 (RUT) advancing 2.31%, just behind the Nasdaq performance. The S&P 500 gained +1.04%. The Dow Jones Industrial gained +0.58%. The VIX volatility index declined -2.88%. The sector list flipped once again with Technology (XLK +2.14%) moving to the top, followed by Communications (XLC +1.89%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY +1.53%). Financials (XLF -0.29%) moved to the bottom. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) declined -0.44%. Yields on the US 30y and 10y treasury bonds rose. The 2y bond yields dropped. High Yield Corporate Bonds (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) both gained for another day. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) declined just slightly. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) gained. Timber (WOOD) continues to advance. Copper (COPPER1!) advanced while Aluminum (ALI1!) advanced. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio declined to 0.571 as investors get more bullish. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. The CNN Fear & Greed index is moving back toward the greed level. The NAAIM exposure index moved all the way down to 0.48. That's the lowest exposure since April of 2020 and brings up the question of what is driving prices higher if investment managers are reducing positions. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders All four big mega-caps advanced for the day. Alphabet (GOOGL) had the biggest advance with a +3.16% gain. Microsoft (MSFT) advanced +2.03%. Both Alphabet and Microsoft are trading above their 21d EMA and 50d MA lines. Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN) had gains of +1.65% and +1.83% but remain under their 21d EMA and 50d MA lines. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), New Oriental Ed (EDU), PayPal (PYPL) and Tesla (TSLA) were the top four mega-caps. AT&T (T) and Verizon (VZ) were at the bottom of the list despite Communications ending near the top of the sector list. Almost all the growth stocks in the daily update list had gains. UP Fintech (TIGR), Ehang Holdings (EH) and Digital Turbine (APPS) topped the list with more than 14% gains. SUMO Logic declined 13.51% after beating earnings but offering soft sales guidance. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Friday's producer price index data will complement the consumer price data earlier in the week. In addition, the inflation expectation and consumer sentiment numbers released after the market opens will be watched closely. Sharp (SHCAY) will report earnings on Friday before market open. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The Nasdaq moved above the 21d EMA and 50d MA lines today and met resistance around 13,400. The five-day and one-day trend lines both point to another gain tomorrow that will be a +1.29% advance. The longer trend-line from the 2/16 ATH points to a -4.60% decline, moving the index back below the 13,000 area. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Having the index close above the 21d EMA and 50d MA is a great positive sign for the rally. Another advance on higher volume would solidify the rally in my opinion and I'd mark the bottom as 2/5 and update the trend-lines. Still, I have a few concerns. The NAAIM exposure index moving to less than 50% while the market rallies is a mystery. What is driving prices higher if positions are being reduced by money managers. The answer could be the record amount of retail trading and the popularity of options trading. Another indicator I've started to watch, but haven't been including here is the TRIN.NQ ARMS Trading Index. This index measures the Advance/Decline ratio against the Advancing Volume / Declining Volume ratio. A number of 1.00 indicates a balance of volume between advancing and declining stocks. A low number under 0.5 would mean there is a larger amount of volume going to advancing stocks and could indicate panic buying as investors buy the dip. Nonetheless, an advance past the 21d EMA tells me there's reason to look at opportunities for entry with controlled risk. I'd be selective about what stocks are setting up with proper bases vs which are rebounding and may turn back around in the coming week as rally buying fades. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
2
Amazon (AMZN), DJI, IXIC, SPX, XAUUSD, USOIL - March 11Hello? Dear traders, nice to meet you. "Like" is a huge force for me. By "following" you can always get new information quickly. Thank you for always supporting me. -------------------------------------------------- ----- The volatility around March 11th (10th-12th March) should be watched to see if there is any movement that deviates from the 3008.91-3176.40 range. If you fail to break above the downtrend lines (2) and (3), you may fall below the 3008.91 point, so you need to trade carefully. If you get support at 3176.40, you're expected to hit the top of the box at 3294.62. ---------------------------- (DJI 1D chart) It started with the gap (31832.7-31907.0) rising and closed at 1.46%. ------------------------------- (IXIC 1D chart) It started with the gap (13073.8-13234.7) rising and closed at -0.04%. ------------------------------ (SPX 1D chart) It started with the gap (3875.4-3892.0) rising and closed at 0.60%. ---------------------------- (XAUUSD 1D chart) We must see if we can ascend above 1731.106 In particular, it remains to be seen if it can rise along the uptrend line. ------------------------------------- (USOIL 1D chart) You must climb above the 65.03 point and see if you are supported. If it falls, you need to make sure you get support at the 60.25 point. In particular, it remains to be seen if it can rise along the uptrend line (3). -------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------------------- ** All indicators are lagging indicators. So, it's important to be aware that the indicator moves accordingly with the movement of price and volume. Just for the sake of convenience, we are talking upside down for interpretation of the indicators. ** The wRSI_SR indicator is an indicator created by adding settings and options from the existing Stochastic RSI indicator. Hence, the interpretation is the same as the traditional Stochastic RSI indicator. (K, D line -> R, S line) ** The OBV indicator was re-created by applying a formula to the DepthHouse Trading indicator, an indicator that oh92 disclosed. (Thank you for this.) ** Check support, resistance, and abbreviation points. ** Support or resistance is based on the closing price of the 1D chart. ** All explanations are for reference only and do not guarantee profit or loss on investment. Explanation of abbreviations displayed on the chart R: A point or section of resistance that requires a response to preserve profits S-L: Stop Loss point or section S: A point or segment that can be bought for profit generation as a support point or segment (Short-term Stop Loss can be said to be a point where profits and losses can be preserved or additionally entered through installment transactions. It is a short-term investment perspective.) GAP refers to the difference in prices that occurred when the stock market, CME, and BAKKT exchanges were closed because they do not trade 24 hours a day. G1: Closing price when closed G2: Cigar at the time of opening (Example) Gap (G1-G2)
NASDAQ:AMZN
by readCrypto
1
Daily Market Update for 3/10Trend lines drawn from the 2/16 ATH (16d), 3/3 (5d) and today 3/9 (1d).   Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, March 10, 2021 Facts: -0.04%, Volume lower, Closing range: 14%, Body: 69% Good: Higher high, higher low, support above 13,000 Bad: Rejection off 21d EMA in morning led to selling and close near low Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Thick red body with small upper and lower wicks, low closing range Advance/Decline: More advancing stocks than declining stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.60%), DJI (+1.46%), RUT (+1.81%), VIX (-6.12%) Sectors: Energy (XLE +2.53%) and Financials (XLF +2.04%) were back on top. Technology (XLK -0.40%) was bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The rotation settles. There was still signs of rotation in the market today, with the sector list flipping once again. But the effect is much more subdued than the past week. The passing of the stimulus has investors eyes wide open while they sent the Dow Jones Industrial to all-time highs. The Nasdaq was not able to benefit from the enthusiasm as it declined -0.04%. A sideways move, but still a day marked by selling after a morning gap-up. The closing range of 14% is underneath a thick red body of 69% and slightly longer upper wick formed just after the market opened. There were more advancing stocks than declining stocks, however volume on declining stocks was higher. The other three major indexes all gained for the day. The Russell 2000 (RUT) had the biggest gains with a +1.81% advance. The Dow Jones Industrial (DJI) gained +1.46% while the S&P 500 (SPX) gained +0.60%. The Dow Jones Industrial has a very bullish candle that closed at an all-time high. The VIX volatility index declined another -6.12%. The sector list flipped back and forth the past three days with the top and bottom trading positions. Energy (XLE +2.53%) and Financials (XLF +2.04%) were back on top. Technology (XLK -0.40%) was on the bottom and the only losing sector for the day. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) declined -0.15%. Yields on the US 30y bond rose for the day while the 10y and 2y yields declined. High Yield Corporate Bonds (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) both gained for another day, showing investors' confidence in US corporations as the stimulus bill is passed. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) both advanced for another day. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) declined. Timber (WOOD) advanced. Copper (COPPER1!) advanced while Aluminum (ALI1!) declined. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio declined to 0.594 as investors get more bullish. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. The CNN Fear & Greed index remains near neutral. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders All four big mega-caps declined for the day. Microsoft (MSFT) declined -0.58% and moved back below its 21d EMA. Alphabet (GOOGL) declined -0.20% but closed above the key moving average lines. Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN) declined and remain below both key moving average lines. Exxon Mobil (XOM) was the leading mega-cap of the day, gaining +3.07% on optimism over economic activity picking up in sectors that depend on oil.Comcast (CMCSA), Bank of America (BAC), and Walmart (WMT) were other winners at the top of the mega-cap list. New Oriental Ed (EDU) lost 14%. Alibaba (BABA), Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) and ASML Holding (ASML), all mega-caps with foreign HQ. The big winners in growth stocks were Draft Kings (DKNG) and Penn Gaming (PENN) with 11.40% and 6.65% gains. Digital Turbine (APPS) continues to reverse from recent lows with a +6.13% gain today. Still, the list of growth stocks tracked by the daily update has more losers than winners. MongoDb (MDB) , SUMO Logic (SUMO) and Peloton (PTON) all had losses of more than 4%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Thursday will bring an update to Initial Jobless Claims and the JOLTs Job Openings report. Both are expected to improve over previous numbers. JD.com (JD) is the big mega-cap reporting on Thursday before market opens. DocuSign (DOCU) and Celsius (CELH) will also report Thursday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The Nasdaq was able to stay above 13,000 today. It tested but was not able to move above the 21d EMA. The five-day trend line points to a positive gain of +1.25% for Thursday. The one-day trend line is pointing to a -0.90% loss that would break back below the 13,000 area. The longer trend-line from the 2/16 ATH points to a -2.76% decline for tomorrow. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up I am still waiting for a positive gain on higher volume, and ideally a move back above the 21d EMA. That will show more support in the Nasdaq and in our favorite tech and growth stocks. It's also a good time to look out beyond the stocks that were working so well in 2020 and discover the stocks that are likely to benefit from the economic recovery. The good news is that the swings in bond yields and fears of inflation seem to be subsiding which will bring a little more predictability to the market. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
7
Daily Market Update for 3/9Trend lines drawn from the 2/16 ATH (16d), 3/3 (5d) and today 3/9 (1d).   Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, March 9, 2021 Facts: +3.69%, Volume higher, Closing range: 71%, Body: 56% Good: Good gain on higher volume, higher high, higher low, above 13k Bad: Selling in last hour of day Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Slightly longer upper wick with a thick green body Advance/Decline: Two advancing stocks for every declining stock Indexes: SPX (+1.42%), DJI (+0.10%), RUT (+1.91%), VIX (-5.65%) Sectors: Consumer Discretionary (XLY +3.78%) and Technology (XLK +3.40%) were the top sectors. Financials (XLF -0.91%) and Energy (XLE -1.75%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The rotation reverses. Today saw a reversal of the past several days rotation as money flooded back into big tech, consumer discretionary, and growth stocks. Treasury bond yields seemed to stabilize a bit allowing investors to turn their eyes on the stimulus and the impact it will have on performance in the near term. The Nasdaq closed with +3.69% gain on higher volume. The closing range of 72% came after some selling in the final hour of trading, forming the upper wick. The green body covers 56% of the candle and represents a day that was dominated by the bulls. There were two advancing stocks for every declining stock. All major indexes had gains for the day with the Dow Jones Industrial average (DJI) having the smallest gain in contrast to the past several days. The S&P 500 (SPX) gained +1.42% while the Russell 2000 gained +1.91%. The VIX volatility index declined -5.65%. Consumer Discretionary (XLY +3.78%) and Technology (XLK +3.40%) were the top sectors as investors rushed in for buying opportunities. Financials (XLF -0.91%) and Energy (XLE -1.75%) were bottom. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) pulled back -0.38% after several days of gains. Yields on the US 30y, 10y and 2y treasury bonds all declined for the day. That was a welcome change for investors nervous about the impact of higher yields on big tech and growth stocks. High Yield Corporate Bonds (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) both gained after several days of declines. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) both advanced for the day. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) declined. Timber (WOOD) advanced. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) declined. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio rose to 0.661. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. The CNN Fear & Greed index is neutral. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders All four big mega-caps advanced for the day. Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN) had the biggest gains with +4.06% and 3.76% advances. Microsoft (MSFT) gained +2.81% and Alphabet (GOOGL) gained +1.64%. Microsoft and Alphabet closed back above their 21d EMA. Apple and Amazon remain below the 21d EMA and 50d MA lines. Tesla (TSLA) made a huge upside reversal with a 19.65% gain. Nvdia (NVDA), ASML Holding (ASML) and PayPal (PYPL) all gained more than 6%. Walt Disney (DIS) dropped -3.66% after a big gain the previous day. Bank of America (BAC) and Exxon Mobil (XOM) led their respective sectors lower with declines of over 2% each. Sixteen of the growth stocks tracked for the daily update had gains over 10%. Another eighteen had gains between 5% and 10%. Looking at the extended list of growth stocks, the number of stocks with big gains just keeps going. Only Dr Horton (DHI) had a loss, but that was after two days of gains despite the market dipping. Ehang Holdings (EH) was the big winner with a 31% gain. FUTU Holdings (FUTU) and UP Fintech (TIGR) were also Chinese stocks at the top of the growth stock list. Grow Generation (GRWG) had an 18% gain. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead There are two significant economic events for Wednesday. First, I had anticipated the stimulus vote being today, but Nancy Pelosi announced shortly after my update that it would likely happen Wednesday. The second big event will be the 10y note auction by the US Treasury. Today's 3y note auction had an average response, alleviating some fears by investors. Another look at inflation will come on Wednesday with the release of consumer price index data in the morning. Crude Oil Inventories data will come after the market opens. Oracle (ORCL) will report on Wednesday. Joining Oracle, will be Campbell Soup (CPB), Cloudera (CLDR) and Sumo Logic (SUMO). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The Nasdaq was able to get back above 13,000 today. It paused slightly in that area before moving higher, showing it's still both a support and resistance line. If today's rebound continues, the one-day trend line points to a +1.92% gain for tomorrow that would take the index back above the 21d EMA. Another higher volume gain that restores the index above the 21d EMA would be a confidence booster. The five-day trend line points to a -1.75% loss, back below the 13,000 area. The trend line from the 2/16 ATH is pointing to a -2.94% decline for tomorrow. I'll remove the head and shoulders pattern from the discussion since we moved back above the neckline. If we decline again, then we'll revisit the levels in the pattern. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up It was a positive expectation breaker today. Monday's selling seemed the index wanted to go lower, but the market does what it wants to do. The rotation back into big tech obviously helps the tech-heavy Nasdaq to have huge gains. Remember that rotations swing back and forth before the right level is discovered in the market. There's plenty of evidence of panic buying in today's bullish results. That panic buying can easily turn into profit taking, especially as these stocks with massive gains hit overhead supply and investors take the chance to get out of what was a losing position. So proceed with caution. The expectation tomorrow is set for sideways or higher. Keep an eye on your favorite stocks and see how they perform over the next few days before overcommitting. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
2
IXIC vs TNXIXIC had highly anticipated and hoped for bounce after recent correction, which lines up with the 10 year Treasury bond rate dropping a bit. It looks like both charts are hitting resistance/support. IXIC looks like its neither terribly overbought or oversold on RSI. Tomorrow is a potential big pivot point for both charts. Will TNX find support and IXIC meet resistance? Or will TNX break down and IXIC break up? Either way, I am still of the opinion that we are not at the bottom of the tech correction yet, just a bounce day. Valuations are still too high in the tech sector and value stocks too appealing given TNX rates increasing. If TNX stays flat, I think we will see more tech growth, but a jump in TNX will probably correlate closely to a drop in IXIC as it has been. IXIC support looks to be at 12600, then 12230 below that. Be ready to hedge up if you haven't already. I prefer selling covered calls and using the premiums to buy puts when the RSI creeps above 70 on the individual company's chart while watching for divergence between volume and candles to indicate pivot points.
TVC:IXIC
by hobo4000
Amazon (AMZN), DJI, IXIC, SPX, XAUUSD, USOIL - March 9Hello? Dear traders, nice to meet you. "Like" is a huge force for me. By "following" you can always get new information quickly. Thank you for always supporting me. -------------------------------------------------- ----- Since the chart posting date was incorrectly checked, it was updated with the command of the previous post. Accordingly, I will post again. We have to see if we can quickly ascend to the 2961.97-3008.91 range. If it falls this way, you can touch the 2734.40 point, so you need to trade carefully. It remains to be seen if the volatility around March 11 could rise above the 3008.91 point. -------------------------------- (DJI 1D chart) It started with the gap (31496.3-31512.2) rising and closed at 0.97%. --------------------------------------- (IXIC 1D chart) It started with a decline in the gap (12920.1-12904.3) and closed at -2.41%. ---------------------------------- (SPX 1D chart) It started with the gap (3841.9-3844.4) rising and closed at -0.54%. ---------------------------------------------- (XAUUSD 1D chart) We must see if we can ascend above the 1731.106 point. If it falls this way, you can touch the 1603.546-1623.813 section, so you need to trade carefully. -------------------------------------------------- (USOIL 1D chart) You need to make sure you get the support at the 65.03 point. In particular, it remains to be seen if it can rise along the uptrend line (3). The next volatility period is around March 24th. It remains to be seen if this volatility could rise above the 69.40 point. -------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------------------- ** All indicators are lagging indicators. So, it's important to know that the indicator moves accordingly with the movement of price and volume. Just for the sake of convenience, we are talking upside down for interpretation of the indicators. ** The wRSI_SR indicator is an indicator created by adding settings and options from the existing Stochastic RSI indicator. Therefore, the interpretation is the same as the conventional stochastic RSI indicator. (K, D line -> R, S line) ** The OBV indicator was re-created by applying a formula to the DepthHouse Trading indicator, an indicator that oh92 disclosed. (Thank you for this.) ** Check support, resistance, and abbreviation points. ** Support or resistance is based on the closing price of the 1D chart. ** All explanations are for reference only and do not guarantee profit or loss on investment. Explanation of abbreviations displayed on the chart R: A point or section of resistance that requires a response to preserve profits S-L: Stop Loss point or section S: A point or segment that can be bought for profit generation as a support point or segment (Short-term Stop Loss can be said to be a point where profits and losses can be preserved or additionally entered through installment transactions. It is a short-term investment perspective.) GAP refers to the difference in prices that occurred when the stock market, CME, and BAKKT exchanges were closed because they do not trade 24 hours a day. G1: Closing price when closed G2: Cigar at the time of opening (Example) Gap (G1-G2)
NASDAQ:AMZN
by readCrypto
2
NAS100USD : Looking UP in ALL time frames SO we have another ELLIOTT SET_UP again. BUYING STRATEGY: Take 50% profit at 50% of previous WAVE (just do it) and place stop at purchase price. IF price reverses lower YOUR EVERN,.... IF price continues UPEARD TREND then, re-buy at NEXT CORRECTIVE WAVE. This is actually a very aggressive strategy for going in early that is why 50% "hedge" PROFIT is taken EARLY in the TRADE. Combining ELLIOTT WAVE and THIS strategy , has SAVED my account 3-TMES during the past 3-weeks.
OANDA:NAS100USDLong
by wolffarchitecture
US-MARKETS: 4-MAJOR INFLUENCERS10 yr Yield expected LOWER, RISK-ON after conformation. BUYING STRATEGY: Take 50% profit at 50% of previous WAVE (just do it) and place stop at purchase price. IF price reverses lower YOUR EVEN,.... IF price continues UP-TREND then, re-buy at NEXT CORRECTIVE WAVE. This is actually a very aggressive strategy for going in early that is why 50% "hedge" PROFIT is taken EARLY in the TRADE. Combining ELLIOTT WAVE and THIS strategy , has SAVED my account 3-TMES during the past 3-weeks.
TVC:TNXLong
by wolffarchitecture
Daily Market Update for 3/8Trend lines drawn from the 2/16 ATH (15d), 3/2 (5d) and today 3/8 (1d).   Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, March 8, 2021 Facts: -2.41%, Volume lower, Closing range: 2%, Body: 73% Good: Held above 12,600 as market closed Bad: Could not hold short rally in morning, selling the rest of afternoon Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Short upper wick over a thick red body, no lower wick Advance/Decline: More than one declining stock for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-0.54%), DJI (+0.97%), RUT (+0.49%), VIX (+3.28%) Sectors: Utilities (XLU +1.41%) and Materials (XLB +1.34%) were the top sectors. Communications (XLC -1.34%) and Technology (XLK -2.42%) were bottom. Expectation: Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The rotation continues. It's not often that a rotation is so clearly seen, with the Dow Jones ending the day up nearly 1% and the Nasdaq ending the day down 2.41%. Nine sectors outperformed the broader S&P 500 index, while the other two sectors lost enough to bring down the index for a loss by the end of the day. The Nasdaq closed the day with a -2.41% loss on lower volume. The closing range of 2% followed an afternoon of selling that formed the 73% red body underneath a small upper wick from the short morning rally. There were more declining stocks than advancing stocks. The Dow Jones Industrial average (DJI) gained +0.97% for the day. The Russell 2000 (RUT) advanced +0.49%. The S&P 500 declined -0.54%. The VIX volatility index rose +3.28%. Utilities (XLU +1.41%) and Materials (XLB +1.34%) were the top sectors for the day, with 8 out of the 11 SPDR sectors advancing for the day. Communications (XLC -1.34%) and Technology (XLK -2.42%) were the bottom, weighted down by losses from large mega-caps that dominate the two sectors. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) continues to advance with a +0.45% gain today. It has now regained a support area from the second half of 2020. Yields on the US 30y and 10y treasury bonds rose for the day. The 2y yield spiked above 1.5 again with a 16% increase to 0.169. High Yield Corporate Bonds (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices both dropped. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) both declined for the day. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) pulled a bit back from its recent advance. Timber (WOOD) advanced. Copper (COPPER1!) advanced while Aluminum (ALI1!) declined. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio dropped to 0.633. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved toward the greed side. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders All four big mega-caps declined for the day. Alphabet (GOOGL) and Apple (AAPL) had the biggest losses with -4.27% and -4.17% declines. Microsoft (MSFT) declined -1.82%. Amazon (AMZN) declined for -1.62%. All four are trading below their 21d EMA and 50d MA. They continue to weigh down the indexes and their respective sectors as they have an overweight impact due to their size. Several mega-caps did very well for the day. Walt Disney (DIS) gained +6.27% for the day. Roche Holding (RHHBF) gained 5%. Oracle (ORCL) and Cisco Systems (CSCO) proved not all is bad for mega-cap tech stocks with gains of around 3% each. Mastercard (MA) and Visa (V) also appeared at the top of the mega-cap list. PayPal (PYPL), Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), Tesla (TSLA), and Nvidia (NVDA) occupied the bottom of the list with over 5% losses each. Growth stocks tracked by the daily update were mostly down for the day. Dr Horton (DHI), Draft Kings (DKNG), Ehang Holdings (EH) and Penn National Gaming (PENN) all had gains for the day. FUTU Holdings (FUTU), UP Fintech (TIGR) both were hit with greater than 10% declines. Digital Turbine (APPS) declined a huge 16.32% and is nearly 40% below its all-time high set less than a week ago. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead The EIA Short-Term energy outlook will be released before market opens on Tuesday. After market close, the API Weekly Crude Oil stock numbers will be released. The house is expected to vote on the stimulus bill on Tuesday. MongoDb (MDB) and Open Lending (LPRO) will report earnings tomorrow. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The trend line from the 2/16 ATH is pointing to a +0.60% gain for tomorrow that would be a nice bounce the 12,600 area. The one-day trend line is pointing to a -1.63% which would test the 12,400 low from Friday. The five-day trend line points to a -2.19% loss, breaking thru the 12,400 mark. We've been keeping an eye on a head and shoulders pattern. This pattern represents an attempt to move back to new highs that was rejected at a previous resistance point. Typically the height of the head is measured to determine the potential move downward that will occur as the price breaks below the neck line, which occurred last week. I've also been cautioning that the drop would not happen in a straight line. Expect some back-and-forth as the index looks for a bottom. The target low from the pattern is 6.3% below Monday's close. Of course, the index could move lower than that point. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Although the expectation set for today was sideways or higher based on Friday's candle, I also noted the weak volume in the rebound on Friday that gave me concern about holding the gains into Monday. Today's sell-off was also at low volume, so it did not really set a decisive direction for the index. Nonetheless, buyers of Nasdaq mega-cap stocks were missing even as the index dipped to a lower close. Given the thick red bodied candle, the expectation for tomorrow is lower. The passing of the stimulus may provide some support to some segments of stocks but it may also stoke more fears of inflation and rising interest rates that have pulled down big tech and growth stocks. Keep an eye out for stocks that are preforming well relative to the indexes and put them on your watch list. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
2