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Nasdaq Composite Index CFD

Daily Market Update for 6/3Summary: Mixed reactions to economic data moved investors into defensive mode on Thursday while they await more news on the labor market scheduled for Friday. Today's data gave a boost to the US Dollar, but stoked fears of the fed tapering off monetary policy earlier than expected. The defensive sectors were up for the day while growth sectors took a step back from recent gains. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, June 3, 2021 Facts: -1.03%, Volume higher, Closing range: 47% (w/gap), Body: 30% Good: Not much Bad: Gap down at open, broke support at 13,700, close below major moving averages Highs/Lows: Lower high, lower low Candle: Long lower wick, red body in upper half of the candle Advanced/Decline: 0.6, More than three declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-0.36%), DJI (-0.07%), RUT (-0.81%), VIX (+3.09%) Sectors: Consumer Staples (XLP +0.62%) and Utilities (XLU +0.60%) were top. Technology (XLK -0.93%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -1.19%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Mixed reactions to economic data moved investors into defensive mode on Thursday while they await more news on the labor market scheduled for Friday. Today's data gave a boost to the US Dollar , but stoked fears of the fed tapering off monetary policy earlier than expected. The defensive sectors were up for the day while growth sectors took a step back from recent gains. The Nasdaq closed with a -1.03% decline on higher volume, marking a day of distribution for investors. The closing range of 47% is not terrible but the 30% red body shows the index could not fully recover from the sell-off after market open. The longer lower wick is representative of the failed attempt to rally back to above key moving average lines. There were more than three declining stocks for every two advancing stocks. The Russell 2000 (RUT) declined -0.81% for the day. The S&P 500 (SPX) lost -0.36%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) declined only -0.07%. The VIX volatility index advanced +3.09%. The defensive sectors of Consumer Staples (XLP +0.62%), Utilities (XLU +0.60%) and Health (XLV +0.30%) were top performing for the day, signaling investors nervousness over economic data. Technology (XLK -0.93%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -1.19%) were at the bottom of the sector list. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) gained +0.65%. The US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury yields all advanced. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices declined. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) declined, due to the advance in the US Dollar. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) declined slightly from its recent record high. Timber (WOOD) declined. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) declined. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) advanced +4.34%. Ethereum (ETHUSD) advanced +5.49%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio rose to 0.563. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. Below that level is overly bullish. The CNN Fear & Greed index is slightly on the fear side, but close to neutral. The NAAIM investment manager exposure index rose to 82.27. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders All four largest mega-caps declined for the day. Alphabet (GOOGL) lost -0.97%, testing its 21d EMA, but remaining above the line. The other three are trading below the 21d EMA and 50d MA. Apple (AAPL) lost -1.22%. Microsoft declined -0.64%. Amazon (AMZN) dropped -1.45%. Procter & Gamble (PG), Toyota Motor (TM ), Nvidia (NVDA), and Oracle (ORCL) were the top mega-caps for the day, all gaining more than 1% despite the drop in the overall market. Tesla (TSLA), Intel (INTC), Netflix (NFLX), and Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) were at the bottom of the list. Most of the daily update growth stocks declined for the day. UP Fintech (TIGR), Digital Turbine (APPS), Moderna (MRNA), and FUTU Holdings (FUTU) topped the list with advances. At the bottom of the list were Etsy (ETSY), Ehang Holdings (EH), MongoDb (MDB) , and DoorDash (DASH). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Fed Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak early in the morning on Friday. The anticipated employment data will be released before markets open and should have a big impact on investor sentiment. After the market opens, Factory Orders data will be released. There are no earnings reports relevant for the daily update on Friday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The index dipped below the 13,600 level, but closed just above it and within the 13,600 - 13,700 support area. It also closed below the key 21d EMA and 50d MA lines. The trend-line from the low on 5/13 points to a +1.95% gain on Friday. The one-day trend line points to a +0.31% advance. Following the five-day trend-line would result in a +0.09% sideways move. Following the trend-line from the 4/2 high would result in a -0.41% decline for tomorrow. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up After spending seven days without much direction in the Nasdaq, Thursday brought a character change. Maybe not the one we are hoping for, but it at least helps set some expectations leading into Friday. From the chart, I'll expect a sideways or lower move for Friday. Investors will be watching remarks from Jerome Powell closely and will certainly react to the labor market data released before the market opens. Great news might be met with more fear over a fed reaction to the recovering economy, and have an opposite impact for growth stocks. So Powell's remarks will be even more important, and may be why they are scheduled for Friday morning. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 6/2Summary: Another sideways move for the indexes while investors remained on the sidelines waiting for the economic data coming over the next two days. To pass the boredom, investors watched, or maybe even gambled with meme stocks that had another day of huge swings. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, June 2, 2021 Facts: +0.14%, Volume higher, Closing range: 77%, Body: 15% Good: Gain on higher volume, high closing range, support at 13,700 Bad: Lower high, thin green body Highs/Lows: Higher high, lower low Candle: Outside day, thick red body with a tiny upper wick and longer lower wick. Advanced/Decline: 0.91, more decling stocks than advancing stocks. Indexes: SPX (+0.14%), DJI (+0.07%), RUT (+0.13%), VIX (-2.24%) Sectors: Energy (XLE +1.86%) and Real Estate (XLRE +1.39%) were top. Consumer Discretionary (XLY -0.46%) and Materials (XLB -0.84%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Another sideways move for the indexes while investors remained on the sidelines waiting for the economic data coming over the next two days. To pass the boredom, investors watched, or maybe even gambled with meme stocks that had another day of huge swings. The Nasdaq closed with a small +0.14% gain after dipping in the afternoon and finding support again at 13,700. Volume was higher, and the closing range of 77% is good with a thin green 15% body. The short upper wick was formed from gains in the morning, while the longer lower wick formed in selling at the start of the afternoon. There were more declining stocks than advancing stocks. The Russell 2000 (RUT) was the only major index to get a higher high today but gained only +0.13% after a strong session the previous day. The S&P 500 (SPX) gained +0.14%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) gained +0.07%. The VIX volatility index declined -2.24%. Energy (XLE +1.86%) and Real Estate (XLRE +1.39%) continued their lead as the top sectors this week. Consumer Discretionary (XLY -0.46%) and Materials (XLB -0.84%) were the worst-performing today. It's worth noting that Utilities (XLU +0.53%) and Consumer Staples (XLP +0.37%) also performed well today. Technology (XLK +0.69%) started the day as the top sector but faded to third place by afternoon. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) declined -0.02%. The US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury yields all declined. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices advanced. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) advanced. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) advanced. Timber (WOOD) declined. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) declined. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) advanced +2.44%. Ethereum (ETHUSD) advanced +2.78%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio rose to 0.534. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. Below that level is overly bullish. The CNN Fear & Greed index is moving toward neutral, but still just on the fear side. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Apple (APPL) and Amazon (AMZN) climbed +0.63% and +0.48% today but are still below their 21d EMA and 50d MA lines. Microsoft (MSFT) declined just -0.04% after hitting resistance at the 21d EMA. Alphabet (GOOGL) fell -0.44% but is still trading within a base forming above its 21d EMA and 50d MA. There were more gainers than losers in the mega-cap list. Nvidia (NVDA), Toyota Motor (TM ), Mastercard (MC), and Chevron (CVX) were the top mega-caps for the day. Tesla (TSLA), Walt Disney (DIS), Home Depot (HD), and Salesforce.com (CRM) were the worst-performing mega-caps. The daily update growth list is a bit more, even with gainers and losers. At the top of the list is Beyond Meat (BYND), gaining over 10% for the day. Lemonade (LMND), Etsy (ETSY), and Palantir (PLTR) were also in the top four. At the bottom of the list were NIO (NIO), FUTU Holding (FUTU), Digital Turbine (APPS), and UP Fintech (TIGR). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead More employment data is coming on Thursday with Nonfarm Employment Change, Initial Jobless Claims, Productivity, and Labor Costs. Services PMI is a leading indicator of demand for services such as hotels, restaurants, and others. Crude Oil Inventories will be available late in the morning. Fed members are scheduled to speak in the afternoon. Thursday's earnings reports include Broadcom (AVGO), Crowdstrike (CRWD), Lululemon (LULU), DocuSign (DOCU), Slack (WORK), MongoDB (MDB), Five Below (FIVE), Pagerduty (PD), and Sumo Logic (SUMO). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The index continues to hold above the 13,600 - 13,700 area after testing the area in the afternoon dip. The trend-line from the low on 5/13 points to a +1.12% gain on Thursday. Following the five-day trend-line would result in a -0.04% lateral move. The one-day trend line points to a -0.59% decline. Following the trend-line from the 4/2 high would result in a -1.55% decline for tomorrow. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up It's been almost two weeks of sideways move for the Nasdaq after it popped above the 21-day Exponential Moving Average and the 50-day Simple Moving Average, two lines that I like to track on index and stock charts along with the 200-day Simple Moving Average. The slow move can be a good thing as we build a base, making the support area from 13,600-13,700 stronger and allowing the moving average lines to catch up. If the 21d EMA can move above the 50d MA, that will be a good confirmation of the uptrend and potentially the start of a move higher. In the meantime, if you want excitement, keep your eyes on the meme stocks that are going crazy again. To the moon. Ugh. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 6/1Summary: The Dow Jones Industrial Average attempted to set a record, but the small-cap Russell 2000 performed the best among the major indices today. As for the Nasdaq, the first day of the summer months started with a rally but faded quickly and continued last week's sideways moves. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, June 1, 2021 Facts: -0.09%, Volume lower, Closing range: 37%, Body: 59% Good: Higher high, advance/decline ratio above 1.0, support at 13,700 Bad: Low closing range, faded from morning rally to a lower low Highs/Lows: Higher high, lower low Candle: Outside day, thick red body with a tiny upper wick and longer lower wick. Advanced/Decline: 1.32, more advancing stocks than declining stocks. Indexes: SPX (-0.05%), DJI (+0.13%), RUT (+1.14%), VIX (+6.68%) Sectors: Energy (XLE +3.85%) and Real Estate (XLRE +1.71%) were top. Utilities (XLU -0.61%) and Health (XLV -1.64%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The Dow Jones Industrial Average attempted to set a record, but the small-cap Russell 2000 performed the best among the major indices today. As for the Nasdaq, the first day of the summer months started with a rally but faded quickly and continued last week's sideways moves. The Nasdaq closed the day down -0.09% on lower volume. The opening price was nearly the high of the day, but then the index dropped to 13,700 before finding any support. That formed a 59% red body under a barely visible upper wick. The lower wick developed after the morning selling turned to afternoon buying. Despite the slight decline, there were more stocks advancing than stocks declining. The Russell 2000 (RUT) closed the day with a +1.14% gain. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) was heading toward a new all-time high close before it reversed and ended lower, advancing just +0.13% for the day. The S&P 500 (SPX) closed with a -0.05% gain. The VIX volatility index rose +6.68%. Energy (XLE +3.85%) and Real Estate (XLRE +1.71%) were top. Growth in fuel demand sent oil prices higher and helped the Energy sector top the list today. Utilities (XLU -0.61%) and Health (XLV -1.64%) were at the bottom of the sector list. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) rose +0.10%. The US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury yields advanced. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices advanced. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) declined. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) advanced. Timber (WOOD) advanced. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) declined. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) declined -1.74%. Ethereum (ETHUSD) declined -2.70%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio dropped to 0468. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. Below that level is overly bullish. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Of the four largest mega-caps, only Alphabet (GOOGL) advanced today, gaining +1.03%. Microsoft (MSFT) declined -0.91% and dropped back below its 21d EMA and 50d MA lines. Amazon (AMZN) continued to get resistance at its declining 21d EMA, losing -0.14% today. Apple (AAPL) declined -0.26% and is trading below both of the key moving average lines. Toyota Motor (TM ), Exxon Mobil (XOM), Chevron (CVX), and Alibaba (BABA) topped the mega-cap list, all with greater than 2.5% gains. At the bottom of the list were Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Adobe (ADBE), Procter & Gamble (PG), and Nike (NKE). The majority of the daily update growth list declined today, but there were some gainers. The Chinese stocks topped the list, with NIO (NIO), UP Fintech (TIGR), JD.com (JD), and Ehang Holdings (EH) performing the best. FUTU (FUTU) and Alibaba (BABA) were the fifth and sixth. At the bottom of the list were Beyond Meat (BYND), GrowGeneration (GRWG), Solar Edge (SEDG), and Enphase (ENPH). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Some more updates from the Federal Reserve come on Wednesday with the release of the Beige book and comments from Fed member Raphael Bostic in the afternoon. API Weekly Crude oil stock updates come after market close. Advanced Auto Parts (AAP) will release earnings. Otherwise, there are not many interesting earning reports for the daily update. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The index continues to hold above the 13,600 - 13,700 area after testing the area in the early morning dip. Following the five-day trend-line would result in a +0.54% gain on Wednesday. The one-day trend line points to a -0.04% sideways move. Following the trend-line from the 4/2 high would result in a -1.71% decline for tomorrow. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up It wasn't an inspiring start to the month of June. Certainly, there were things to watch, from the sale of Cloudera (CLDR) to the continued resurgence of the meme stocks of AMC (AMC) and GameStop (GME). The cryptocurrencies settled down a bit and are starting to form some nice coils on lower volume. But overall, it was a mixed day with a sideways move in the indices. Based on the failed rally attempt in the morning and overall bearish candle, the expectation is for sideways or lower tomorrow. That's been a consistent expectation the past week, even among higher highs and higher lows. Unless something excites investors back into big tech and growth stocks, we can continue to expect this sideways movement heading into the early summer. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
1
Update: Possible pattern in the overall marketThis is purely hypothetical. It appears a pattern has formed in terms of periods of heavy growth and periods of stalling growth. I was able to chart all 3 major indices in aggregate. This is another projection. A possible catalyst that could cause June to be a turbulent month, while still squeaking out about a 1% gain, would be the June 10th CPI report coming in hot. The labor market and supply chains have seen the worst of inflation and have been passing on the price increases to consumers/customers successfully. If it comes in hot, it could cause the market to rethink the idea that inflation is transitory and cause fear that the Fed will slam on the breaks too soon with their asset purchases. If and when this happens, the market should adjust and reprice accordingly and then continue its leg higher. What do you think the markets will do? Will this year be a choppy grind higher or will we see another correction and have a smooth ride from then on? Possibilities are endless and there can always be a macroeconomic event or geopolitical event that could cause changes.
TVC:SPX
by EBITDAtiger
4
Market Week in Review - 5/24/2021 - 5/28/2021Summary: The week opened with reassurances that the Fed would not change monetary policy, helping to move the dialogue off inflation and turn the trade back toward growth. However, caution remained. There were gains, but some indecision in the indexes remained, and rotation was back into value and defensive plays at the end of the week. Notes The Market Week in Review is my weekend homework where I look over what happened in the previous week and what might come in the next week. I occasionally have some errors or typos and will correct them in my blog or the comments on TradingView. I do not have an editor and do this in my free time. If you find this helpful, please let me know in the comments. I am also more than happy to add new perspectives and data points if you have ideas. The structure is the following: A recap of the daily updates that I do here on TradingView. The Meaning of Life, a view on the past week What's coming in the next week The Bullish View, The Bearish View Key index levels to watch out for Wrap-up If you have been following my daily updates, you can skip down to "The Meaning of Life." If not, then this first part is a great play-by-play recap for the week. Click the daily charts for more detail on sectors, indexes, and market leaders each day. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, May 24, 2021 Facts: +1.41%, Volume lower, Closing range: 70%, Body: 66% Good: Higher high, higher low, high closing range Bad: Upper wick from fade before close, lower volume, A/D ratio Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Large green body under a long upper wick. No lower wick. Advanced/Decline: More declining stocks than advancing stocks. Indexes: SPX (+0.99%), DJI (+0.54%), RUT (+0.54%), VIX (-7.73%) Sectors: Communications (XLC +1.82%) and Technology (XLK +1.78%) were top. Health (XLV +0.10%) and Utilities (XLU -0.18%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher The Fed made new promises today to keep an easy monetary policy, helping boost growth stocks. Stocks that suffered from inflation fears were the ones that had the most gains today. The Nasdaq rose +1.41%, but on lower volume for the day. The closing range of 70% results from a fade in prices before close, but the candle still has a 66% green body from the bullish day. Despite the bullish day in the indexes, there were more declining stocks than advancing stocks. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, May 25, 2021 Facts: -0.03%, Volume higher, Closing range: 21%, Body: 54% Good: The higher high and higher low continues the uptrend Bad: Could not revisit the high just after open, and higher volume in selling with low A/D Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Shallow red body within a tight intraday range. Slightly longer upper wick. Advanced/Decline: Two declining stocks for every advancing stock. Indexes: SPX (-24%), DJI (+0.24%), RUT (-0.97%), VIX (-7.73%) Sectors: Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.32%) and Real Estate (XLRE +0.28%) were top. Utilities (XLU -1.21%) and Energy (XLE -2.03%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher The indices pulled back a bit from yesterday's gains after consumer confidence numbers were lower than expected, indicating some possible bumps in the economic recovery. That left us still waiting for a higher volume advance with more breadth in gains across the market. The Nasdaq moved sideways with a small -0.03% declined by the end of the day. Volume was higher for the day. The index fell after a very brief rally after open, creating a 54% red body with small upper and lower wicks. The closing range of 21% is in the middle of the afternoon trading range, with the index moving sideways most of the day. There were two declining stocks for every advancing stock. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, May 26, 2021 Facts: +0.59%, Volume higher, Closing range: 83%, Body: 62% Good: Higher volume with breadth of gains across index Bad: No higher high Highs/Lows: Lower high, higher low Candle: Inside day. A shallow green body with the high and low within the previous day's range. Advanced/Decline: Two advancing stocks for every declining stock. Indexes: SPX (+0.19%), DJI (+0.03%), RUT (+1.97%), VIX (-7.31%) Sectors: Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.95%) and Energy (XLE +0.89%) were top. Consumer Staples (XLP -0.21%) and Health (XLV -0.58%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher Investors put their inflation worries aside today and jumped back into growth and small-cap stocks. The breadth of gains across stocks on higher volume in the indices shows the kind of accumulation we've wanted. There is still overhead supply to deal with among many growth stocks, but today is a move in the right direction. The Nasdaq closed the day with a +0.59% gain on higher volume. The candlestick is an inside day where the high and low are within the high and low of the previous day. The closing range of 83% over a 62% green body represents a bullish day, but the narrow trading range exposes some remaining caution among investors. There were more than two advancing stocks for every declining stock. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, May 27, 2021 [chart [https://www.tradingview.com/chart/IXIC/imyDyxkr-Daily-Market-Update-for-5-27/ Facts: -0.01%, Volume higher, Closing range: 46%, Body: 8% Good: Higher high and higher low Bad: Could not hold onto intraday gains Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Indecisive spinning-top red candle, thin red body in the middle of two long wicks. Advanced/Decline: Three advancing stocks for every two declining stocks. Indexes: SPX (+0.12%), DJI (+0.41%), RUT (+1.06%), VIX (-3.57%) Sectors: Industrials (XLI +1.37%) and Financials (XLF +1.15%) were top. Consumer Staples (XLP -0.62%) and Utilities (XLU -0.67%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower Positive employment and durable goods orders data gave a boost to the cyclical sectors today. Investors rotated out of big tech and some growth stocks and into value stocks and small caps. Even so, there were a broad set of gains on higher volume, even in the tech-heavy Nasdaq. The Nasdaq closed nearly where it opened with a slight -0.01% loss. The spinning-top style candle has a thin 8% red body in the middle of equal length upper and lower wicks, resulting in a 46% closing range. The candle signals indecision among investors, which is in line with this week's market character. Despite the slight loss, there were three advancing stocks for every declining stock. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, May 28, 2021 Facts: +0.09%, Volume lower, Closing range: 2%, Body: 59% Good: Higher high and higher low Bad: Low closing range, couldn't hold mid-day high Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Red body with no lower wick, visible upper wick. Advanced/Decline: 0.76, more declining stocks than advancing stocks. Indexes: SPX (+0.08%), DJI (+0.19%), RUT (-0.18%), VIX (+0.12%) Sectors: Real Estate (XLRE +0.67%) and Utilities (XLU +0.54%) were top. Consumer Discretionary (XLY -0.14%) and Communications (XLC -0.33%). Expectation: Sideways or Lower Little by little. That's been how the index gains have come this week. Higher lows pushed up higher highs through the week as investors grapple with a mix of economic news and shrugged off inflation data. It was the same for Friday. Price index data was higher, but it didn't seem to bring any surprises. Consumer data was a mix of results against expectations, causing a bit of uncertainty. Add a three-day weekend, and investors moved into defensive plays. The Nasdaq closed with a +0.09% gain but faded from the mid-day high. Volume was lower for the day and lower in the afternoon selling, which was a good sign for bulls. The closing range of 2% and red 59% body creates a candlestick with no lower wick. The upper wick formed from the morning rally. Today's session marks seven days of a higher low. There were more declining stocks than advancing stocks. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Meaning of Life (View on the Week) The week opened with reassurances that the Fed would not change monetary policy, helping to move the dialogue off inflation and turn the trade back toward growth. However, caution remained. There were gains, but some indecision in the indexes remained, and rotation was back into value and defensive plays at the end of the week. Monday was the best day of the week for the Nasdaq, gaining +1.41% for the day. It came on lower volume but started the upward trend in both price and volume for the rest of the week. Tuesday brought a pull-back as investors took profits from Monday's session. However, Consumer Discretionary remained at the top of the sector list, and Technology had small gains despite the pull-back in the tech-heavy Nasdaq index. Overall, it still looked good for growth stocks. Wednesday proved that investors were still interested in growth stocks. They put inflation worries to bed and reinvested, taking stocks higher on higher volume, with two advancing stocks for every declining stock. The pace changed a bit on Thursday after attention moved back to infrastructure spending and robust economic recovery data. That caused a rotation back to cyclicals and value stocks that investors ignored earlier in the week. Still, the Nasdaq held close to the previous day's price on higher volume, and there was a breadth of gains across stocks in the index. There were no surprises for the end of the week. The index moved higher in the morning but couldn't hold the gains as investors moved into defensive positions for the three-day weekend and the start of the typically low-performing summer months. The Nasdaq climbed +2.06% for the week. Volume was higher than the previous week. The closing range was 73%, a good sign and strengthened by the higher high and higher low. The small-cap Russell 2000 (RUT) had the best week of the major indices, gaining +2.42%. The S&P 500 (SPX) advanced +1.16%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) gained +1.16%. The VIX volatility index declined -16.36% for the week. Growth sectors stole the show this week as investors put inflation worries aside and boosted Communications ( XLC ) and Technology ( XLK ) early in the week. The focus was on the growth sectors from Monday to Wednesday. Technology faded back in the list, buy Consumer Discretionary ( XLY ) joined Communications to end the week at the top of the list. On Thursday, there was a rotation into cyclicals, bringing Industrials ( XLI ) higher in the list. Industrials ended the week in fourth place. Friday brought out the defensive plays heading into a three-day weekend and the start of the summer months. That gave a boost to Real Estate ( XLRE ), Health Care ( XLV ), Utilities ( XLU ), and Consumer Staples ( XLP ). Real Estate ( XLRE ) ended in third place for the week, while Health Care and Utilities remained at the bottom two sectors for the week. The US Treasury 30y, 10y, and 2y yields declined for the week, and the spread between long and short-term yields tightened more. The High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) and Investment Grade Bond (LQD) prices advanced. The US Dollar (DXY) seemed to find an area of support around 90, dipping early in the week but then ending the week with a +0.03% advance. Silver (SILVER) advanced +1.38%, and Gold (GOLD) advanced +1.19%. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) advanced +4.21%, hitting recent highs. Timber (WOOD) declined -0.10%. This is the third week of declines. Copper and Aluminum had significant advances on Thursday thanks to a renewed focus on infrastructure spending. Copper (COPPER1!) advanced +3.50%. Aluminum (ALI1!) advanced +5.48%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Big Four Mega-caps Alphabet (GOOGL) continues to be the strongest of the four largest mega-caps this week. It has consistently outperformed the index this year. This week, Alphabet advanced +2.73%, continuing the climb after touching its 10w moving average line. Microsoft (MSFT) is also doing well with a +1.84% gain this week and topping the 10w line before closing below it. Amazon (AMZN) gained +0.62%, losing momentum from earlier in the week and closing just above the 40w moving average line. Apple (AAPL) had its fifth week of declines, losing -0.65% this week. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Four Recovery Stocks I picked four recovery stocks to track against the indexes and other indicators in this weekly report. Exxon Mobil (XOM) was the only one with a loss this week, declining -0.93% but getting support at the 10w moving average line. Carnival Cruise Lines (CCL) rose +8.80% for the week and could be ready to break out of a base. Delta Airlines (DAL) moved above the 10w moving average line with a +5.46% gain. Marriott (MAR) gained +3.29% but remained below the 10w moving average line. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Cryptocurrency I started tracking four major cryptocurrencies on the week in review. The four are Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, and Bitcoin Cash. The latter two are not the largest by market cap but seem to be well-known and are part of the CIX capital.com index, tracking five cryptocurrencies, including these four (Ripple is the fifth). The cryptocurrencies bounced back from two weeks of losses. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) gained +4.29%. Ethereum (ETHUSD) gained +18.79%. Litecoin (LTCUSD) gained +26.37%. Bitcoin Cash (BCHUSD) gained +24.21%. Ethereum is the only of the four near its 10w moving average, having poked above it earlier in the week. The other three are trading in between the 10w and 40w moving average lines. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment www.tradingview.com The put/call ratio (PCCE) moved lower, ending the week at 0.593. A contrarian indicator, when the put/call ratio is below 0.7, it signals overly bullish sentiment and could mean an overbought market. The CNN Fear & Greed Index remains on the fear side. The NAAIM money manager exposure index rose to 68.3 after dipping to 44.2 the previous week. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Week Ahead Monday Monday is Memorial Day in the US, and the markets will be closed. Tuesday On Tuesday, the ISM will release Manufacturing data, including the purchasing managers index and employment data, showing the sector preparing for future rise or fall in demand. Zoom Video (ZM), Hewlett Packard (HPE), and Digital Turbine (APPS) will release earnings reports on Tuesday. Wednesday Some more updates from the Federal Reserve come on Wednesday with the release of the Beige book and comments from Fed member Raphael Bostic in the afternoon. API Weekly Crude oil stock updates come after market close. Advanced Auto Parts (AAP) will release earnings. Otherwise, there are not many interesting earning reports for the daily update. Thursday More employment data is coming on Thursday with Nonfarm Employment Change, Initial Jobless Claims, Productivity, and Labor Costs. Services PMI is a leading indicator of demand for services such as hotels, restaurants, and others. Crude Oil Inventories will be available late in the morning. Fed members are scheduled to speak in the afternoon. Thursday's earnings reports include Broadcom (AVGO), Crowdstrike (CRWD), Lululemon (LULU), Docusign (DOCU), Slack (WORK), MongoDB (MDB), Five Below (FIVE), Pagerduty (PD), Sumo Logic (SUMO), Friday Fed Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak early in the morning on Friday. Then more employment data will be released before markets open. After the market opens, Factory Orders will be released. There are no earnings reports relevant for the daily update on Friday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Bullish Side Investors turned their attention back to the growth stock trade this past week. The new confidence comes after the Fed reinforced that they will make no monetary policy changes until they see employment and economic activity recovers fully. That also helped the US Dollar and interest rates remain low, which can boost big tech and growth stocks. It's reasonable to expect more upside for growth stocks in the next few weeks. It also seems that retail investors are entering back into the picture. For better or worse, the meme stocks that got much attention early in the year are starting to see the same gains again. Once those trades play out, we could see additional retail activity in some of the favorite growth names as well. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Bearish Side Sell in May and go away is the age-old mantra. As investors came to the end of this week, we saw them move into defensive sectors that tend to stay steady regardless of the ups and downs of the market. That could be because there is a three-day weekend coming up, but investors may also be prepping for the drawdowns that often come in the summer months. The months of June to September historically don't do as well as other months. Each of those months has gains less than 60% of the time in stock market history. Any economic news this week that is disappointing may be the catalyst that ensures investors go away. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Key Nasdaq Levels to Watch The index moved back above the 21d EMA and 50d MA lines this week. The 21d EMA is approaching the 50d MA and may cross above in the next week, confirming a good uptrend. The index is also back above the 13,600 - 13,700 support/resistance area. It rose above this area on Wednesday and stayed above it through the end of the week. On the positive side, the levels are: The high of this past week was 13,820.87. The rally attempt of two weeks ago made it to 13,828.62. A move above that level adds confidence to this rally. 14,000 has been a key area of support/resistance. The index has only stayed above this level for a few days at a time since the beginning of 2021. The all-time high is at 14,211.57. On the downside, there are a few key levels: The key moving averages are lined up close to each other. The 50d MA is at 13,611,29. The 21d EMA is at 13,596.57. The 10d MA is at 13,553.05. The low of this past week is 13,551.01. There is a support area at 13,000. 12,786.81 is a low pivot point from the late March dip. Stay above this low to keep an upward trend since early March. 12,612.16 is the 200d MA. This could be a support point if the index falls below 13,000. 12,397.05 is a low pivot point from the early March dip. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up It was the most exciting rally this week. It started with a bang but then slowed through the remainder of the week. A slow, steady climb may be boring, but it isn't necessarily a bad thing, helping build new support levels that can keep the index moving higher instead of making new lows. Next week is a short week with a lighter set of economic news and earnings reports. The main concern now is how the market enters the summer and whether investors will go on vacation or keep driving prices higher. If you are in the US, enjoy your Memorial Day Weekend! Good luck, stay healthy, and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
5
Daily Market Update for 5/28Summary: Little by little. That's been how the index gains have come this week. Higher lows pushed up higher highs through the week as investors grapple with a mix of economic news and shrugged off inflation data. It was the same for Friday. Price index data was higher, but it didn't seem to bring any surprises. Consumer data was a mix of results against expectations, causing a bit of uncertainty. Add a three-day weekend, and investors moved into defensive plays. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, May 28, 2021 Facts: +0.09%, Volume lower, Closing range: 2%, Body: 59% Good: Higher high and higher low Bad: Low closing range, couldn't hold mid-day high Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Red body with no lower wick, visible upper wick. Advanced/Decline: 0.76, more declining stocks than advancing stocks. Indexes: SPX (+0.08%), DJI (+0.19%), RUT (-0.18%), VIX (+0.12%) Sectors: Real Estate (XLRE +0.67%) and Utilities (XLU +0.54%) were top. Consumer Discretionary (XLY -0.14%) and Communications (XLC -0.33%). Expectation: Sideways or Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Little by little. That's been how the index gains have come this week. Higher lows pushed up higher highs through the week as investors grapple with a mix of economic news and shrugged off inflation data. It was the same for Friday. Price index data was higher, but it didn't seem to bring any surprises. Consumer data was a mix of results against expectations, causing a bit of uncertainty. Add a three-day weekend, and investors moved into defensive plays. The Nasdaq closed with a +0.09% gain but faded from the mid-day high. Volume was lower for the day and lower in the afternoon selling, which was a good sign for bulls. The closing range of 2% and red 59% body creates a candlestick with no lower wick. The upper wick formed from the morning rally. Today's session marks seven days of a higher low. There were more declining stocks than advancing stocks. The Russell 2000 (RUT) pulled back from its recent rally with a -0.18% decline today. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) gained +0.19%, and the S&P 500 (SPX) advanced +0.08%. The VIX volatility index rose +0.12%. The defensive sectors topped the sector list today. That includes Real Estate (XLRE +0.67%) and Utilities (XLU +0.54%), Health (XLV +0.39%) and Consumer Staples (XLP +0.21%). However, tucked into the top sector list is Technology (XLK +0.36%), leading at mid-day. At the bottom of the list were the other growth sectors, Consumer Discretionary (XLY -0.14%) and Communications (XLC -0.33%). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) rose +0.06%. The US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury yields declined, with the spread tightening a bit. Both High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) prices declined while Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices advanced. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) advanced. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) advanced. Timber (WOOD) declined. Copper (COPPER1!) declined while Aluminum (ALI1!) advanced. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) declined -7.30%. Ethereum (ETHUSD) declined -11.96%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio rose slightly to 0.593. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. Below that level is overly bullish. The CNN Fear & Greed index is still on the fear side. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Of the four largest mega-caps, only Microsoft (MSFT) held onto a gain, advancing +0.15% for the day. Microsoft (MSFT) is trading above the key moving average lines, the 21d EMA and 50d MA. Alphabet (GOOGL) is also trading above the key lines, with a -0.25% decline today. Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN) are below the two lines, with a -0.53% and -0.22% loss for today. Salesforce.com (CRM) topped the mega-cap list, beating expectations and analyst outlook for full-year guidance. Nvidia (NVDA) had a delayed reaction to great earnings earlier in the week, coming up second on the mega-cap list today. ASML Holding (ASML) and Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) also topped the list. At the bottom of the mega-cap list were Facebook (FB), Intel (INTC), AT&T (T), and Tesla (T). Despite some of the larger names in the Technology sector losing for the day, the sector outperformed thanks to significant gains by Salesforce.com, Nvidia, Adobe (ADBE) and smaller increases by Microsoft and Visa (V), which provided support for the sector. That helped the sector perform even as investors took defensive positions outside of growth stocks. Lemonade (LMND), GrowGeneration (GRWG), Nvidia, and Ehang Holdings (EH) topped the daily update growth list. The list is about 50% gainers and 50% losers for the day. At the bottom of the list are Peloton (PTON), Fastly (FSLTY), Chewy (CHWY), and Snowflake (SNOW) -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Monday is Memorial Day in the US, and the markets will be closed. On Tuesday, the ISM will release Manufacturing data, including the purchasing managers index and employment data, showing the sector preparing for future rise or fall in demand. Zoom Video (ZM), Hewlett Packard (HPE), and Digital Turbine (APPS) will release earnings reports on Tuesday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance Similar to Thursday, the index made a higher high today before settling back to where it opened. It's still above the 13,600-13,700 area. Following the five-day trend-line would result in a +0.60% gain on Tuesday. The one-day trend line points to a +0.03% gain. Following the trend-line from the 4/2 high would result in a -2.05% decline for Tuesday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up There was plenty to be nervous about today looking at the rising wedge in the index chart this past week. Inflation data, recovery data, and the three-day weekend could result in a much worse outcome. As expected, the defensive plays in sectors like Real Estate, Utilities, and Consumer Staples came into play, especially as the afternoon progressed. However, notice that investors did not punish companies with great earnings reports as they sometimes do when the timing isn't quite right. In the end, the week gave us a higher high and a higher low than the previous week. That's a step in the right direction as we end May and move into the summer months. The summer months (June to September) are not historically the best months for the market, but hopefully, we can keep moving in a positive direction. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 5/27Summary: Positive employment and durable goods orders data gave a boost to the cyclical sectors today. Investors rotated out of big tech and some growth stocks and into value stocks and small caps. Even so, there were a broad set of gains on higher volume, even in the tech-heavy Nasdaq. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, May 27, 2021 Facts: -0.01%, Volume higher, Closing range: 46%, Body: 8% Good: Higher high and higher low Bad: Could not hold onto intraday gains Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Indecisive spinning-top red candle, thin red body in the middle of two long wicks. Advanced/Decline: Three advancing stocks for every two declining stocks. Indexes: SPX (+0.12%), DJI (+0.41%), RUT (+1.06%), VIX (-3.57%) Sectors: Industrials (XLI +1.37%) and Financials (XLF +1.15%) were top. Consumer Staples (XLP -0.62%) and Utilities (XLU -0.67%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Positive employment and durable goods orders data gave a boost to the cyclical sectors today. Investors rotated out of big tech and some growth stocks and into value stocks and small caps. Even so, there were a broad set of gains on higher volume, even in the tech-heavy Nasdaq. The Nasdaq closed nearly where it opened with a slight -0.01% loss. The spinning-top style candle has a thin 8% red body in the middle of equal length upper and lower wicks, resulting in a 46% closing range. The candle signals indecision among investors, which is in line with this week's market character. Despite the slight loss, there were three advancing stocks for every declining stock. The small-cap Russell 2000 (RUT) index led again today with a +1.06% gain. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) gained +0.41%. The S&P 500 (SPX) gained +0.12%. The VIX volatility index declined -3.57%. Cyclical sectors led the list today. Industrials (XLI +1.37%) and Financials (XLF +1.15%) were top, with Materials (XLB +0.80%) in third place. Technology (XLK -0.53%) had the second day of underperformance relative to the tech-heavy Nasdaq index. Consumer Staples (XLP -0.62%) and Utilities (XLU -0.67%) were the bottom sectors of the day. Investors did not focus on the defensive strategy of these sectors. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) declined -0.05%. The dollar seems to have found a base of support over the past two weeks. The US 30y, 10y, and 2y treasure yields all advanced, with the spread remaining about the same. Both High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices declined. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) advanced. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) advanced. Timber (WOOD) advanced. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) advanced considerably, aligning with the performance of the Industrial and Materials sectors. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) declined -2.05%. Ethereum (ETHUSD) declined -5.14%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio rose slightly to 0.550. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. Below that level is overly bullish. The CNN Fear & Greed index is still on the fear side. The NAAIM money manager exposure index rose to 68.3 after dipping to 44.2 the previous week. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders The four largest mega-caps declined today. Apple (AAPL) lost -1.24% while Amazon (AMZN) declined -1.07%. Both are trading below the key 21d EMA and 50d MA lines. Microsoft (MSFT) declined -0.87% but stopped short of dipping below the 21d EMA. Alphabet (GOOGL) remains well above the two key moving average lines, despite declining -0.74% today. Tesla (TSLA) tops the mega-cap list again today. JP Morgan Chase (JPM), Facebook (FB), Walt Disney (DIS) were also in the top-performing mega-caps for the day. At the bottom of the list is Proctor & Gamble (PG), Adobe (ADBE), Salesforce.com (CRM), and Nvidia (NVDA). The majority of stocks in the daily update growth list gained for the day. Beyond Meat (BYND), DoorDash (DASH), Snowflake (SNOW), and Cloudflare (NET) topped the list. Okta (OKTA) declined almost 10% after disappointing investors with their earnings, despite beating expectations. Workday (WDAY), Paycom (PAYC), and ServiceNow (NOW) are also at the bottom of the list. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Friday will bring another update on inflation with the PCE Price Index data, an indicator of inflation. In addition, we will see updates for Goods Trade Balance, Personal Spending, Retail Inventories, and Consumer Sentiment. Big Lots (BIG) and Ehang Holdings (EH) will release earnings. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The index made a higher high today before settling back to where it opened. It's still above the 13,600-13,700 area. Following the five-day trend-line would result in a +0.81% gain for tomorrow. The one-day trend line points to a +0.10% gain. A return to the trend-line from the 4/2 high would result in a -2.84% decline for Friday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up On the one hand, we have a red candle with a daily loss for the Nasdaq. That doesn't seem optimistic for tech and growth stocks. On the other hand, there is higher volume and broad gains across the stocks in the index. Overall, you could call that a structural day that builds a base for further increases. The last six candles all have higher lows, which is good. The highs, however, have been decelerating relative to the higher lows, creating a topping pattern. That makes setting an expectation for Friday all the more challenging and reflects the indecision in the market this week. The expectation is Sideways or Lower for Friday. The primary risk will be in the pre-market Price Index data that may raise inflation fears with investors. There may also be more rotation back into recovery stocks and cyclical sectors, or even defensive sectors, as investors take some profits heading into a three-day weekend. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
24
Daily Market Update for 5/26Summary: Investors put their inflation worries aside today and jumped back into growth and small-cap stocks. The breadth of gains across stocks on higher volume in the indices shows the kind of accumulation we've wanted. There is still overhead supply to deal with among many growth stocks, but today is a move in the right direction. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, May 26, 2021 Facts: +0.59%, Volume higher, Closing range: 83%, Body: 62% Good: Higher volume with breadth of gains across index Bad: No higher high Highs/Lows: Lower high, higher low Candle: Inside day. A shallow green body with the high and low within the previous day's range. Advanced/Decline: Two advancing stocks for every declining stock. Indexes: SPX (+0.19%), DJI (+0.03%), RUT (+1.97%), VIX (-7.31%) Sectors: Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.95%) and Energy (XLE +0.89%) were top. Consumer Staples (XLP -0.21%) and Health (XLV -0.58%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Investors put their inflation worries aside today and jumped back into growth and small-cap stocks. The breadth of gains across stocks on higher volume in the indices shows the kind of accumulation we've wanted. There is still overhead supply to deal with among many growth stocks, but today is a move in the right direction. The Nasdaq closed the day with a +0.59% gain on higher volume. The candlestick is an inside day where the high and low are within the high and low of the previous day. The closing range of 83% over a 62% green body represents a bullish day, but the narrow trading range exposes some remaining caution among investors. There were more than two advancing stocks for every declining stock. Small caps and the Russell 2000 (RUT) performed well today. The RUT advanced +1.97%, bouncing back from yesterday's decline. The S&P 500 (SPX) gained +0.59%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) moved sideways with just a +0.03% gain. The VIX volatility index declined -7.31%. Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.95%) and Energy (XLE +0.89%) were the top sectors for the day. Energy got a boost from better than expected demand for oil. Only three sectors lost for the day. Technology (XLK -0.01%) had a slight loss, which is significant on a day that the Nasdaq performed well. Consumer Staples (XLP -0.21%) and Health (XLV -0.58%) were today's worst-performing sectors. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) climbed +0.42%. The US 30y and 10y treasure yields advanced slightly while the 2y yield declined. Both High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) prices advanced while Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices declined. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) declined. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) declined. Timber (WOOD) declined. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) advanced. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) advanced +2.37%. Ethereum (ETHUSD) advanced +6.85%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio dropped to 0.541. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. Below that level is overly bullish. The CNN Fear & Greed index is still on the fear side. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders The four largest mega-caps had mixed results. Alphabet (GOOGL) rose +0.74% and put more room between the current price and the 21d EMA and 50d MA lines. Amazon (AMZN) advanced +0.19% and closed above the 21d EMA for the first time since the beginning of May. Apple (AAPL) lost -0.04% and remained below the two key moving average lines. Microsoft also declined, losing -0.09%, and created another doji style candle signaling indecision. Tesla (TSLA), Comcast (CMCSA), Nike (NKE), and Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) were the top mega-caps for the day, all gaining over 1.5%. Abbott Labs (ABT), Mastercard (MA), Pfizer (PFE), and ASML Holding (ASML) were at the bottom of the list. Only two stocks in the daily update growth list declined for the day, Facebook (FB) and Pinterest (PINS). At the top of the list were Ehang Holdings (EH), UP Fintech (TIGR), Zscaler (ZS), and Lemonade (LMND), all gaining over 10%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead On Thursday, Durable Goods orders data will get an update. We will also get the revised GDP numbers for Q1, which should align with the previously released numbers. Initial Jobless Claims and Pending Home Sales will also get an update. Salesforce.com (CRM), Medtronic (MDT), Costco (COST), VMWare (VMW), Autodesk (ADSK), Dollar General (DG), Veeva Systems (VEEV), HP Inc (HPQ), Best Buy (BBY), Dollar Tree (DLTR), Burlington Stores (BURL), GameStop (GME), and Gap (GPS) release earnings on Thursday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The index moved above the 13,600 - 13,700 resistance area. That should become a support area as well. Following the five-day trend-line would result in a +0.69% gain for tomorrow. The one-day trend line points to a +0.29% gain. A return to the trend-line from the 4/2 high would result in a -2.83% decline for Thursday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Positive price action. Higher volume. A breadth of gains across the market. What more can I ask for? Now I'd like to see a higher high to show a move toward a new all-time high. To do that, the Technology sector will likely need to participate as well. Otherwise, the environment looks right for more gains, and the expectation is set for sideways or higher for tomorrow. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
3
Daily Market Update for 5/25Summary: The indices pulled back a bit from yesterday's gains after consumer confidence numbers were lower than expected, indicating some possible bumps in the economic recovery. That left us still waiting for a higher volume advance with more breadth in gains across the market. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, May 25, 2021 Facts: -0.03%, Volume higher, Closing range: 21%, Body: 54% Good: The higher high and higher low continues the uptrend Bad: Could not revisit the high just after open, and higher volume in selling with low A/D Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Shallow red body within a tight intraday range. Slightly longer upper wick. Advanced/Decline: Two declining stocks for every advancing stock. Indexes: SPX (-24%), DJI (+0.24%), RUT (-0.97%), VIX (-7.73%) Sectors: Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.32%) and Real Estate (XLRE +0.28%) were top. Utilities (XLU -1.21%) and Energy (XLE -2.03%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The indices pulled back a bit from yesterday's gains after consumer confidence numbers were lower than expected, indicating some possible bumps in the economic recovery. That left us still waiting for a higher volume advance with more breadth in gains across the market. The Nasdaq moved sideways with a small -0.03% declined by the end of the day. Volume was higher for the day. The index fell after a very brief rally after open, creating a 54% red body with small upper and lower wicks. The closing range of 21% is in the middle of the afternoon trading range, with the index moving sideways most of the day. There were two declining stocks for every advancing stock. The S&P 500 (SPX) declined -0.21%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) declined -0.24%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) dropped -0.97% and had an outside day, having a higher high and a lower low than the previous day. The VIX volatility index rose +1.30%. Only four sectors ended the day with gains. Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.32%) and Real Estate (XLRE +0.28%) were the top-performing. Technology (XLK +0.03%) and Consumer Staples (XLP +0.03%) also had gains, albeit small advances. Utilities (XLU -1.21%) and Energy (XLE -2.03%) were at the bottom of the sector list. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) declined -0.19%. The US 30y, 10y, and 2y treasure yields all declined for the day, with the spreads between long-term and short-term tightening significantly. Both High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices advanced for the fourth day. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) advanced. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) advanced. Timber (WOOD) declined. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) declined. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) declined -1.14%. Ethereum (ETHUSD) advanced +1.98%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio rose to 0.654. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. Below that level is overly bullish. The CNN Fear & Greed index is moving more into the fear zone. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Of the four largest mega-caps, only Apple (AAPL) declined today, moving down -0.16% and remaining below the 21d EMA and 50d MA lines. Amazon (AMZN) closed with a +0.43% gain after dipping into the afternoon but climbing back up to the moving average lines before close. Microsoft (MSFT) gapped up at open, moved up and down, but closed nearly at the same price as open, gaining +0.37% for the day and creating a bearish Doji star candle. Alphabet (GOOGL) gained +0.08% today. ASML Holding (ASML), Adobe (ADBE), Walt Disney (DIS), and Facebook (FB) were at the top of the mega-cap list today. There were slightly more gaining mega-caps than losing mega-caps. Mastercard (MA), Bank of America (BAC), Chevron (CVX), and Exxon Mobil (XOM) were the biggest losers. UP Fintech (TIGR) and FUTU Holdings (FUTU) topped the growth stock list thanks to a positive earnings beat by UP Fintech before the market open. GrowGeneration (GRWG) was third after announcing another acquisition. Ehang Holdings (EH) adds another Chinese stock to the top for growth stocks for today. Lemonade (LMND), DoorDash (DASH), Digital Turbine (APPS), and SUMO Digital (SUMO) had losses and were at the bottom of the daily update growth list. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Crude Oil Inventories will be released on Wednesday after the market opens. FOMC member Quarles will speak in the afternoon, before market close. Earnings releases will include Nvidia (NVDA), Pinduoduo (PDD), Snowflake (SNOW), Workday (WDAY), and Okta (OKTA). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The index stayed above the 21d EMA and 50d MA today, moving sideways within the 13,600 - 13,700 resistance/support area. Following the five-day trend-line would result in a +1.71 gain for tomorrow, taking the index to end just below the 14,000 area. The one-day trend line points to a -0.51% decline for tomorrow, resting the index right at the 50d MA. A return to the trend-line from the 4/2 high would result in a -2.67% decline for Tuesday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up There's not much to look at in the indices today. We expected sideways or higher. We got sideways within a recent uptrend that continues with the higher high and higher low. It was notable to see the US Dollar and Treasury yields drop due to consumer confidence and housing data. That will be something to watch over the next few days to see the impact ripple through markets. I'll continue yesterday's expectation of sideways or higher until the index gives a strong indication of change. There are not many catalysts for a considerable reaction tomorrow unless there is a surprise in crude oil inventories or something said by FOMC member Randal Quarles in the late afternoon. I am still waiting for a positive day with higher volume and breadth of gains across the market. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 5/24Summary: The Fed made new promises today to keep an easy monetary policy, helping boost growth stocks. Stocks that suffered from inflation fears were the ones that had the most gains today. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, May 21, 2021 Facts: +1.41%, Volume lower, Closing range: 70%, Body: 66% Good: Higher high, higher low, high closing range Bad: Upper wick from fade before close, lower volume, A/D ratio Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Large green body under a long upper wick. No lower wick. Advanced/Decline: More declining stocks than advancing stocks. Indexes: SPX (+0.99%), DJI (+0.54%), RUT (+0.54%), VIX (-7.73%) Sectors: Communications (XLC +1.82%) and Technology (XLK +1.78%) were top. Health (XLV +0.10%) and Utilities (XLU -0.18%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The Fed made new promises today to keep an easy monetary policy, helping boost growth stocks. Stocks that suffered from inflation fears were the ones that had the most gains today. The Nasdaq rose +1.41%, but on lower volume for the day. The closing range of 70% results from a fade in prices before close, but the candle still has a 66% green body from the bullish day. Despite the bullish day in the indexes, there were more declining stocks than advancing stocks. The S&P 500 (SPX) advanced +0.99%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) gained +0.54%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) also rose +0.54% for the day. The VIX volatility index declined -7.73%. Communications (XLC +1.82%) and Technology (XLK +1.78%) were the top sectors for the day. They were far above the next best sector, Real Estate (XLRE +1.09%). Utilities (XLU -0.18%) was the only declining sector for today. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) declined -0.21%. The US 30y and 10y Treasury yields declined while the 2y treasure yield advanced. Both High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices advanced for the third day. Silver (SILVER) advanced, Gold (GOLD) was flat. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) advanced. Timber (WOOD) declined. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) advanced. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) advanced 11.91%. Ethereum (ETHUSD) advanced +26.37%. Both reversed after huge drops over the weekend. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio dropped to 0.616. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. Below that level is overly bullish. The CNN Fear & Greed index is moving more into the fear zone. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders All four largest mega-caps advanced today. Alphabet (GOOGL) had the biggest gain with a +2.92% advance, helping Communications to the top of the sector list. Microsoft (MSFT) climbed +2.29%. Both Microsoft and Alphabet are trading above their 21d EMA and 50d MA lines. Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN) are still looking for a solid move above those lines but could gain +1.33% and 1.31%, respectively. Tesla (TSLA), Nvidia (NVDA), ASML Holding (ASML), Alphabet, Facebook (FB), and PayPal (PYPL) all gained over 2.5%, topping the mega-cap list. AT&T (T), Pfizer (PFE), Home Depot (HD), and Alibaba (BABA) were at the bottom of the list. Growth stocks benefited from the new confidence in the Fed today. The top of the daily update list includes Beyond Meat (BYND), DraftKings (DKNG), SNAP Inc. (SNAP), and Chewy (CHWY), all with gains of over 5.5%. JD.com (JD), UP Fintech (TIGR), Etsy (ETSY), and GrowGeneration (GRWG) did not fare as well, declining more than 1% each. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Consumer Confidence and New Home Sales numbers will be released after the market opens on Tuesday. Intuit (INTU), AutoZone (AZO), Zscaler (ZS), Nordstrom (JWN), MakeMyTrip (MMYT), and UP Fintech (TIGR) will release earnings updates. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The index rose above the 21d EMA and 50d MA today before hitting resistance at 13,700 and fading into close. Staying above the key moving average lines would help the index move back towards 14,000 and all-time highs. The one-day and five-day trend-lines point to a +0.27% to +0.53% advance for tomorrow. The trend-line from the 4/2 high shows a -3.18% decline on Tuesday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Investors were happy to hear from Fed members today, reiterating the need for continued easy monetary policy. The result was a rush back into stocks that were severely beaten down on inflation fears. But the result was more declining stocks than advancing stocks and lower volume. Based on the higher high and higher low today, it's fair to expect another move higher tomorrow. But the move would give more confidence if it comes with breadth and higher volume. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Market Week in Review - 5/17/2021 - 5/21/2021Summary: Are you tired of hearing about inflation yet? Well, it's still very much the focus of investors and driving the wild up-and-down movements in the Nasdaq. This week's most crucial moment was clearly on Wednesday at 2:00 pm when the Fed released the minutes from last month's meeting. Investors poured over the report looking between the lines for hints of inflation concerns and potential fed action to control it. Notes The Market Week in Review is my weekend homework where I look over what happened in the previous week and what might come in the next week. I occasionally have some errors or typos and will correct them in my blog or the comments on TradingView. I do not have an editor and do this in my free time. If you find this helpful, please let me know in the comments. I am also more than happy to add new perspectives and data points if you have ideas. The structure is the following: A recap of the daily updates that I do here on TradingView. The Meaning of Life, a view on the past week What's coming in the next week The Bullish View, The Bearish View Key index levels to watch out for Wrap-up If you have been following my daily updates, you can skip down to "The Meaning of Life." If not, then this first part is a great play-by-play recap for the week. Click the daily charts for more detail on sectors, indexes, and market leaders each day. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, May 17, 2021 Facts: -0.38%, Volume lower, Closing range: 85%, Body: 8% Good: Close in upper part of range, bulls took over in afternoon Bad: Lower high, selling most of day Highs/Lows: Lower high, higher low Candle: Tiny thin body over a long lower wick. Advanced/Decline: More declining stocks than advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (-0.25%), DJI (-0.16%), RUT (+0.11%), VIX (+4.84%) Sectors: Energy (XLE +2.32%) and Materials (XLB +0.88%) were top. Communications (XLC -0.79%) and Utilities (XLU -0.82%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher Monday started with a dip, just like the past several Mondays. This week's difference is that the bulls entered in the afternoon, bringing the major indices back to near their open. Small Caps performed best on the day as inflation still weighed on big tech and mid-cap growth. The Nasdaq closed with a -0.38% loss on lower volume. The 85% closing range over an 8% green body is in the upper part of the candle over a long lower wick. The candle indicates the bulls weren't willing to let go, but still, there was indecision in the market. There were more declining stocks than advancing stocks. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, May 18, 2021 Facts: -0.56%, Volume higher, Closing range: 2%, Body: 61% Good: Higher high, higher low Bad: Couldn't hold morning rally, closed day at low Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Red body under a long upper wick and almost no lower wick Advanced/Decline: More declining stocks than advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (-0.85%), DJI (-0.78%), RUT (-0.73%), VIX (+8.22%) Sectors: Real Estate (XLRE +0.19%) and Health (XLV +0.03%) were top. Industrials (XLI -1.46%) and Energy (XLE -2.32%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower Surprisingly robust earnings reports from big retail before market open sent major indices on a rally in the morning. Still, the bullish exuberance couldn't hold on, and the indices closed the day with losses. Despite the downward pressure on the indexes, the growth stock list had a relatively good day. The Nasdaq closed with a -0.56% loss for the day but was able to turn in a higher high and higher low than the previous day. The index rose in the early morning but then fell the rest of the day, creating an upper wick in the morning but ending the day with a 2% closing range underneath a 61% red body. Volume was higher for the day, with intraday volume more elevated in the morning than in the afternoon. There were more declining stocks than advancing stocks. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, May 19, 2021 Facts: -0.03%, Volume higher, Closing range: 2%, Body: 61% Good: Thick green body shows buying after a gap down at open Bad: Gap down at open Highs/Lows: Lower high, lower low Candle: All green body, barely visible upper and lower wicks Advanced/Decline: Two declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-0.29%), DJI (-0.48%), RUT (-0.78%), VIX (+3.94%) Sectors: Technology (XLK +0.35%) and Communications (XLC +0.16%) were top. Materials (XLB -1.53%) and Energy (XLE -2.49%) Expectation: Sideways or Higher You shake my nerves, and you rattle my brain! There is no question what investors worried about today. They took risk off the table at open ahead of the Fed minutes. Then morning comments from Fed member Quarles started to attract investors back in but at lowering volume. When the meeting minutes were released, volume popped back up as the market reacted. The Nasdaq closed with a -0.03% loss, much better than the -1.71% dip at open. Volume was higher than the previous day. The 95% green body and 98% closing range shows the buying throughout the day. There is the potential, as with 5/11, that the gap down caused some shorts to cover and take profits. But much of the action seemed to be centered around the 2 pm release of the Fed minutes. There were two declining stocks for every advancing stock. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, May 20, 2021 Facts: +1.77%, Volume lower, Closing range: 89% (w/gap), Body: 86% Good: No lower wick, thick green body with high closing range Bad: Lower volume Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Gap up at open, mostly green body with a short upper wick Advanced/Decline: Three advancing stocks for every two declining stocks Indexes: SPX (+1.06%), DJI (+0.55%), RUT (+0.64%), VIX (-6.81%) Sectors: Technology (XLK +1.91%) and Communications (XLC +1.71%) were top. Financials (XLF +0.05%) and Energy (XLE -0.15%) were bottom. Expectation: Higher A better-than-expected jobs report was enough to continue the trend in Technology and Communications stocks that started yesterday. Eyes remain on the Fed and inflation. Still, a drop in the US dollar and US treasury rates, in addition to lowering expectations from a few retailers, gave investors some relief that the economy was not overheating out of control. The Nasdaq closed the day with a +1.77% advance. Volume was lower, but the gap-up and higher high and higher low are both great signs. With the gap, the closing range was 89%. An 86% green body sits under a short upper wick formed late in the date. There is no visible lower wick. There were three advancing stocks for every two declining stocks. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, May 21, 2021 Facts: -0.48%, Volume lower, Closing range: 5%, Body: 95% Good: Higher high, higher low, lower volume on down day Bad: Selling throughout session, high at open, low near close Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Barely visible lower wick, no upper wick, mostly red body Advanced/Decline: Slightly more declining than advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (-0.08%), DJI (+0.36%), RUT (+0.34%), VIX (-2.52%) Sectors: Financials (XLF +0.99%) and Utilities (XLU +0.52%) were top. Consumer Discretionary (XLY -0.50%) and Technology (XLK -0.55%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways Big tech and growth stocks paused after two days of gains, while investors boosted recovery stocks after good economic data in the morning. The purchasing manager indexes for Manufacturing and Services were higher than expected, indicating an uptick in demand in both sectors. The Nasdaq started the day in the positive but ended with a -0.48% decline after a full day of selling. Volume was lower than the previous day. The Nasdaq did put in a higher high and higher low than Thursday. However, the candle is an almost entirely red body, with a 5% closing range. There were slightly more declining stocks than advancing stocks. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Meaning of Life (View on the Week) Are you tired of hearing about inflation yet? Well, it's still very much the focus of investors and driving the wild up-and-down movements in the Nasdaq. This week's most crucial moment was clearly on Wednesday at 2:00 pm when the Fed released the minutes from last month's meeting. Investors poured over the report looking between the lines for hints of inflation concerns and potential fed action to control it. On Monday and Tuesday, the Nasdaq retreated ahead of the Fed minutes release. Investors focused on cyclical sectors (XLE, XLB) on Monday and defensive sector sectors (XLRE, XLV, XLU) on Tuesday. The market opened with a gap down on Wednesday. Investors responded to the gap and slowly bought back stocks through the morning as volume dropped on the Nasdaq. At the 2:00 pm release of the fed minutes, volume immediately picked back up, and a rally began that lasted through Thursday. The rally also came with a change in the sector list. The growth sectors of Technology (XLK) and Communications (XLC) led from Wednesday morning through Thursday. On Friday, the growth sectors paused while some of the value plays had a chance to catch up. I'll include the Growth/Value chart that frequently shows up in the weekly review. In the chart, you can see the spike in growth relative to value on Wednesday and Thursday, with a slight retreat on Friday. There is not enough for a trend yet. And there is still question of which way the market will go in the next few weeks. The first question is in this chart. Is this spike in growth vs. value an indication of a trend? Have popular growth stocks found a bottom and ready to climb again? Or is it merely a quick spike, and investors will move back to the value trade? The Nasdaq advanced +0.31% on the lowest volume week thus far in 2021. The closing range of 73% is a good sign, while the inside week and thin green body show indecision in direction. The other three major indices all declined for the week. The S&P 500 (SPX) lost -0.43%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) declined -0.51%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) fell -0.42%. The VIX volatility index closed the week with a +6.59% weekly gain. Sector performance provides some clues this week on how investors are thinking about inflation and the Fed. Like the market character changed around the Wednesday release of the Fed meeting minutes, the sectors also saw a change in leadership. The question remains if that new character sticks for the coming weeks or gets disrupted as the inflation story unfolds. Real Estate ( XLRE ), Health Care ( XLV ), and Utilities ( XLU ) top the list for the full week, and that reflects well the overall mood of investors. These sectors are used as defensive sectors. Regardless of whether economic conditions serve better cyclical stocks or growth stocks, the services in these defensive sectors are always required. Consumer Staples ( XLP ) is also up in that list and outperformed the S&P 500 index. For the remaining sectors, it's worth looking at performance before and after the Wednesday Fed release. Coming into the week, there was a clear focus on cyclical sectors, with Energy ( XLE ) and Materials ( XLB ) leading on Monday. Investors turned defensive on Tuesday, popping the defensive sectors to the top. And then the gap down at open came on Wednesday with shifting investments on lower volume leading into the meeting minutes release at 2p. After Wednesday, it's clear there was a change in sentiment. Technology ( XLK ) and Communications ( XLC ) came out of the gap-down and performed best through the end of the week, despite a small pullback for both on Friday. They performed well enough to end the week outperforming the S&P 500 index. That leaves the cyclical sectors at the bottom of the list. Materials ( XLB ), Industrials ( XLI ), and Energy ( XLE ) were the bottom three sectors. For these sectors, much rests on Biden's infrastructure plans passing through congress, but the proposals continue to be rejected by Republicans. It's reasonable to expect that with continued headwinds for the infrastructure bill, we'll see some downside for cyclical sectors, see inflation decelerate a bit, and give some life to growth stocks, even if for a short period. The US Treasury 30y and 10y yields declined for the week while the 2y yield rose. That tightened the spread between long and short-term yields. Both the High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) prices declined while Investment Grade Bond (LQD) prices advanced. The US Dollar (DXY) continues choppy trading with gains and losses this week. It ended the week at a -0.31% decline. Silver (SILVER) advanced +0.45% while Gold (GOLD) advanced +2.07%. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) declined -2.65%. The material commodities continued to pull back from record highs two weeks ago. Timber (WOOD) declined -2.62%. Copper (COPPER1!) declined -4.30%. Aluminum (ALI1!) declined -3.52%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Big Four Mega-caps Only Alphabet (GOOGL) is trading above its 10w moving average of the big four mega-caps, gaining +0.69% this week. Apple (AAPL) declined -0.61%. Microsoft (MSFT) declined -1.20%. Amazon (AMZN) declined -0.61%. Note that the Nasdaq gained while the largest mega-caps in the index declined. The means the Nasdaq gains came from a broader set of stocks, a positive sign. However, having the big four mega-caps participate in gains would give a boost to investor sentiment. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Four Recovery Stocks I picked four recovery stocks to track against the indexes and other indicators in this weekly report. This week, all four recovery stocks declined. Do investors see the recovery as stalling, or do they see the recovery already priced into these stocks? Exxon Mobil (XOM) declined -3.04%. Marriott (MAR) dropped -2.99%. Delta Airlines (DAL) lost -2.38%. Carnival Cruise Lines declined -0.11%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Cryptocurrency I'll start tracking four major cryptocurrencies on the week in review. The four are Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, and Bitcoin Cash. The latter two are not the largest by market cap but seem to be well-known and are part of the CIX capital.com index, tracking five cryptocurrencies, including these four (Ripple is the fifth). The major cryptocurrencies are in a two-week slide. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) declined -20.48% this week. Ethereum (ETHUSD) is down -37.81%. Litecoin (LTCUSD) dropped -42.89%. Bitcoin Cash (BTHUSD) is down -45.85%. The first two are down nearly 50% from highs. The latter two are down more than 60% from highs. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio (PCCE) remained high, ending the week at 0.668. A contrarian indicator, when the put/call ratio is below 0.7, it signals overly bullish sentiment and could mean an overbought market. The CNN Fear & Greed Index remains on the fear side. The NAAIM money manager exposure index declined to 44.21. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Week Ahead Monday There is not much economic news scheduled for Monday. Fed member Brainard will speak in the morning, and Bostic will speak at noon. Lordstown Motors (RIDE) will report earnings on Monday. Tuesday Consumer Confidence and New Home Sales numbers will be released after the market opens on Tuesday. Intuit (INTU), AutoZone (AZO), Zscaler (ZS), Nordstrom (JWN), MakeMyTrip (MMYT), and UP Fintech (TIGR) will release earnings updates. Wednesday Crude Oil Inventories will be released on Wednesday after the market opens. Earnings releases will include Nvidia (NVDA), Pinduoduo (PDD), Snowflake (SNOW), Workday (WDAY), and Okta (OKTA). Thursday On Thursday, Durable Goods orders data will get an update. We will also get the revised GDP numbers for Q1, which should align with the previously released numbers. Initial Jobless Claims and Pending Home Sales will also get an update. Salesforce.com (CRM), Medtronic (MDT), Costco (COST), VMWare (VMW), Autodesk (ADSK), Dollar General (DG), Veeva Systems (VEEV), HP Inc (HPQ), Best Buy (BBY), Dollar Tree (DLTR), Burlington Stores (BURL), GameStop (GME), and Gap (GPS) release earnings on Thursday. Friday Friday will bring another update on inflation with the PCE Price Index data. In addition, we will see updates for Goods Trade Balance, Personal Spending, Retail Inventories, and Consumer Sentiment. Big Lots (BIG) and Ehang Holdings (EH) will release earnings. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Bullish Side It looks like a sentiment change toward growth stocks occurred this past Wednesday when concerns about inflation did not come with any strong hints of monetary policy changes from the Fed. The Fed has pointed to several employment indicators suggesting that easy monetary policy will need to continue for some time until the economy fully recovers. It also seems inflation may be transitionary as the fed promised. Consumer confidence, retail numbers, and the retail earnings reports this week all point to a possible pullback from high inflation in the second half of the year. With the low prices for growth stocks, compared to 52-week highs, an all-clear signal could come with quite a rally as Investors rotate from value into growth. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Bearish Side Despite the gains this week, volume was lower, suggesting that big institutions are not yet accumulating. That means the brief rally for growth stocks could be short-lived. The big mega-caps did not benefit from the rally, and several met resistance at their 10w moving average lines and remained below the critical level. Wednesday may have been met with relief by investors, but sensitivity to inflation and any reaction from the Fed remains. If the infrastructure bill finds support with republicans, we can also expect rotation back into cyclical sectors that will benefit from the extra spending. The demand for commodities will drive prices higher and potentially cause more inflation. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Key Nasdaq Levels to Watch The Nasdaq closed the week below the critical 21d EMA and 50d MA lines. The index climbed to 13,600 this week before hitting resistance and closing lower on Friday. Note the similarity to late February and early March when the index found support at 13,000, then resistance at 13,600 and dipped lower than 13,000 in the next several days. That's what I'll be watching for this week, hoping we head back to 14,000 instead. On the positive side, the levels are: The 21d EMA is at 13,525.47. The 50d MA is at 13,578.31. There is a resistance area between 13,600 and 13,700. The high of this past week was 13,616.58. The rally attempt of the previous week went to 13,828.62. Get above this level to end the sequence of lower highs. 14,000 has been a key area of support/resistance. The index has only stayed above this level for a few days at a time since the beginning of 2021. The all-time high is at 14,211.57 is the all-time high. On the downside, there are a few key levels: The 10d MA is at 13,336.71. The low of this past week is 13,072.23. That low is just above the 13,000 support line. 12,786.81 is a low pivot point from the late March dip. Stay above this low to keep an upward trend since early March. 12,543.86 is the 200d MA. This could be a support point if the index falls below 13,000. 12,397.05 is a low pivot point from the early March dip. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up I am still waiting for the Nasdaq to show some solid support from institutional investors. It's going to require broad gains, including mega-caps, mid-caps, and small-caps, on higher volume to get the index moving in an uptrend. That kind of support is necessary to carry many of the influential stocks past resistance areas. There is a good possibility that the index will move lower before a new uptrend occurs. That's not necessarily a bad thing if the index moves lower first, and we can end the months of sideways chop that tests a growth investor's endurance. Then after finding a solid bottom, the index and big tech and growth can have at least a few weeks of solid gains. Watch out for progress on the infrastructure bill and any more hints at inflation worries as potential catalysts to the downside. Good luck, stay healthy, and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
3
Sector Winners and Losers week ending 5/21Sector performance provides some clues this week on how investors are thinking about inflation and the Fed. Just like the market character changed around the Wednesday release of the Fed meeting minutes, the sectors also saw a change in leadership. It still remains to be seen if that new character sticks for the coming weeks, or gets disrupted as the inflation story unfolds. Real Estate (XLRE), Health Care (XLV), and Utilities (XLU) top the list for the full week, and that reflects well the overall mood of investors. These sectors are used as defensive sectors. Regardless of whether economic conditions serve better cyclical stocks or growth stocks, the services in these defensive sectors are always required. Consumer Staples (XLP) is also up in that list and outperformed the S&P 500 index. For the remaining sectors, it's worth looking at performance before and after the Wednesday Fed release. Coming into the week, there was a clear focus on cyclical sectors with Energy (XLE) and Materials (XLB) leading on Monday. Investors turned defensive on Tuesday, popping the defensive sectors to the top. And then the gap down at open came on Wednesday with shifting investments on lower volume leading into the meeting minutes release at 2p. After Wednesday, it's clear there was a change in sentiment. Technology (XLK) and Communications (XLC) came out of the gap-down and performed best through the end of the week, despite a small pullback for both on Friday. They performed well enough to end the week outperforming the S&P 500 index. That leaves the cyclical sectors at the bottom of the list. Materials (XLB), Industrials (XLI), and Energy (XLE) were the bottom three sectors. For these sectors, much rests on Biden's infrastructure plans passing through congress, but the proposals continue to be rejected by Republicans. It's reasonable to expect that with continued headwinds for the infrastructure bill, we'll see some downside for cyclical sectors, see inflation decelerate a bit, and give some life to growth stocks, even if for a short period.
SP:SPX
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 5/21Summary: Big tech and growth stocks paused after two days of gains, while investors boosted recovery stocks after good economic data in the morning. The purchasing manager indexes for Manufacturing and Services were higher than expected, indicating an uptick in demand in both sectors. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, May 21, 2021 Facts: -0.48%, Volume lower, Closing range: 5%, Body: 95% Good: Higher high, higher low, lower volume on down day Bad: Selling throughout session, high at open, low near close Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Barely visible lower wick, no upper wick, mostly red body Advanced/Decline: Slightly more declining than advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (-0.08%), DJI (+0.36%), RUT (+0.34%), VIX (-2.52%) Sectors: Financials (XLF +0.99%) and Utilities (XLU +0.52%) were top. Consumer Discretionary (XLY -0.50%) and Technology (XLK -0.55%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Big tech and growth stocks paused after two days of gains, while investors boosted recovery stocks after good economic data in the morning. The purchasing manager indexes for Manufacturing and Services were higher than expected, indicating an uptick in demand in both sectors. The Nasdaq started the day in the positive but ended with a -0.48% decline after a full day of selling. Volume was lower than the previous day. The Nasdaq did put in a higher high and higher low than Thursday. However, the candle is an almost entirely red body, with a 5% closing range. There were slightly more declining stocks than advancing stocks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) benefited from the economic data in the morning, advancing +0.36% for the day. The Russell 2000 (RUT) ended the day with a +0.34% gain. The small-cap index was up more than 1.3% in the morning. The S&P 500 (SPX) declined -0.08% for the day. The VIX volatility index declined -2.52%. Financials (XLF +0.99%) and Utilities (XLU +0.52%) were the top sectors for the day. Cyclical sectors did well. Consumer Discretionary (XLY -0.50%) and Technology (XLK -0.55%) were at the bottom of the list. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) advanced +0.31% for the day. The US 30y and 10y Treasury yields declined while the 2y treasure yield advanced. Both High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices advanced. Silver (SILVER) declined, Gold (GOLD) advanced. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) advanced. Timber (WOOD) declined. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) declined. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) declined -7.87%. Ethereum (ETHUSD) declined -12.25%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio rose slightly to 0.668. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. Below that level is overly bullish. The CNN Fear & Greed index is moving more into the fear zone. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders All four largest mega-caps reversed yesterday's gains. Apple (AAPL) declined -1.48%. Microsoft (MSFT) lost -0.53%. Amazon (AMZN) declined -1.37%. Alphabet (GOOGL) is the only of the four to remain above the 21d EMA and 50d MA lines, despite declining -0.56% today. Nvidia (NVDA), Bank of America (BAC), AT&T (T), and JP Morgan (JPM) were the top gaining mega-caps for today. Alibaba (BABA), Apple, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), and Tesla (TSLA) were at the bottom of the list. There were more decliners in the daily update growth list today. The top gainers included Crowdstrike (CRWD), Sumo Digital (SUMO), Nvidia (NVDA), and Fastly (FSLY). At the bottom of the list were FUTU Holding (FUTU), Etsy (ETSY), GrowGeneration (GRWG), and Ehang Holding (EH). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead There is not much economic news scheduled for Monday. Fed member Brainard will speak in the morning, and Bostic will speak at noon. Lordstown Motors (RIDE) will report earnings on Monday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The index was not able to hold above the 21d EMA today. It first hit resistance at 13,600, then moved below the 21d EMA. The moving average line then acted as resistance in two afternoon attempts by the index to move back above. The give-day trend-line points to a +0.60% advance for tomorrow. The one-day trend-line ends with a -0.75% decline. The trend-line from the 4/2 high shows a -2.48% decline on Monday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Excitement over the morning economic news allowed the Nasdaq to open in the positive. But the excitement faded along with prices throughout the day. The bullish higher high and higher low contrasts with a bearish red candle. The day brings to close an inside week for the Nasdaq. The weekly high and low is within the previous week's high and low. It shows investors are still undecided on the future of inflation and reactions from the Fed, moving in and out of big-tech and growth stocks that will be sensitive to any changes. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
7
Daily Market Update for 5/20Summary: A better-than-expected jobs report was enough to continue the trend in Technology and Communications stocks that started yesterday. Eyes remain on the Fed and inflation. Still, a drop in the US dollar and US treasury rates, in addition to lowering expectations from a few retailers, gave investors some relief that the economy was not overheating out of control. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, May 20, 2021 Facts: +1.77%, Volume lower, Closing range: 89% (w/gap), Body: 86% Good: No lower wick, thick green body with high closing range Bad: Lower volume Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Gap up at open, mostly green body with a short upper wick Advanced/Decline: Three advancing stocks for every two declining stocks Indexes: SPX (+1.06%), DJI (+0.55%), RUT (+0.64%), VIX (-6.81%) Sectors: Technology (XLK +1.91%) and Communications (XLC +1.71%) were top. Financials (XLF +0.05%) and Energy (XLE -0.15%) were bottom. Expectation: Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview A better-than-expected jobs report was enough to continue the trend in Technology and Communications stocks that started yesterday. Eyes remain on the Fed and inflation. Still, a drop in the US dollar and US treasury rates, in addition to lowering expectations from a few retailers, gave investors some relief that the economy was not overheating out of control. The Nasdaq closed the day with a +1.77% advance. Volume was lower, but the gap-up and higher high and higher low are both great signs. With the gap, the closing range was 89%. An 86% green body sits under a short upper wick formed late in the date. There is no visible lower wick. There were three advancing stocks for every two declining stocks. The S&P 500 (SPX) gained +1.06%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) advanced +0.55%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) gained +0.64%. The VIX volatility index declined -6.81%. Technology (XLK +1.91%) and Communications (XLC +1.71%) were the top sectors for the second day in a row. Only Energy (XLE -0.15%) declined for the day. Financials (XLF +0.05%) had a slight gain but was at the bottom of the sector list. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) declined -0.47% for the day. The US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury yields all declined, and the spread between the 10y and 2y tightened. Both High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices declined. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) advanced. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) declined. Timber (WOOD) advanced. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) declined. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) advanced +9.92%, recovering from yesterday's dip. Ethereum (ETHUSD) rose +14.48%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio dropped to 0.633. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. The CNN Fear & Greed index is still in the fear zone. The NAAIM money manager exposure index declined to 44.21 -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders All four largest mega-caps gained for the day. Apple (AAPL) rose +2.10% to close just below its 21d EMA and 50d MA lines. Alphabet (GOOGL) gained +1.56% and moved back above the 21d EMA. Microsoft (MSFT) closed just below the 50d MA, with a +1.38% gain. Amazon(AMZN) moved above the 50d MA with a +0.49% advance. Tesla (TSLA) topped the mega-cap list for the first time in weeks. Nvidia (NVDA), Netflix (NFLX), ASML Holding (ASML), and PayPal (PYPL) were also at the top of the list with greater than 2.5% gains. Only a handful of mega-caps lost for the day. Bank of America (BAC), Exxon Mobil (XOM), Verizon (VZ), and United Health (UNH) were the worst losers of the day, but all declined less than 0.25%. Enphase (ENPH) and Solar Edge (SEDG), two solar energy stocks, are at the top of the daily update growth list for the second day in a row. Fiverr (FVRR) and SNAP (SNAP) are the third and fourth best of the day. Several growth stocks topped 5% gains. Only a few in the list had losses. Those include DoorDash (DASH), Chewy (CHWY), RH (RH), and Palantir (PLTR) at the bottom of the list. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead On Friday morning, the Purchasing Manager Index data for Services and Manufacturing will be available after the market opens. The data shows an expected increase/decrease in activity to meet customer demand in the two sectors. Existing Home Sales will also be released after the market opens. Deere & Company (DE), Foot Locker (FL), and Buckle (BKE) are on the shortlist of earnings reports for Friday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The index closed above the 21d EMA line today. It had first hit resistance at the line, then found support as the index faded a bit into the close. Holding this key support line is critical to ending the week positively. The one-day trend-line points to a +0.97% gain for tomorrow, taking the index above the 50d MA. The five-day trend line leads to a -0.85% loss. The trend-line from the 4/2 high shows a -3.14% decline on Friday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up I'll take it. A positive day for the Nasdaq, and growth stocks, and broad overall gains in the market is very welcome after a few days of disappointing losses. It's not yet time to jump back in the deep end. I would wait for a day with similar characteristics today, but higher volume showing institutions are accumulating. Tomorrow is an options expiration day. Expect some changes in direction in the afternoon. Overall, I'll set my expectations for higher based on the past two days. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
2
Daily Market Update for 5/19Summary: You shake my nerves, and you rattle my brain! There is no question what investors worried about today. They took risk off the table at open ahead of the Fed minutes. Then morning comments from Fed member Quarles started to attract investors back in but at lowering volume. When the meeting minutes were released, volume popped back up as the market reacted. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, May 19, 2021 Facts: -0.03%, Volume higher, Closing range: 2%, Body: 61% Good: Thick green body shows buying after a gap down at open Bad: Gap down at open Highs/Lows: Lower high, lower low Candle: All green body, barely visible upper and lower wicks Advanced/Decline: Two declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-0.29%), DJI (-0.48%), RUT (-0.78%), VIX (+3.94%) Sectors: Technology (XLK +0.35%) and Communications (XLC +0.16%) were top. Materials (XLB -1.53%) and Energy (XLE -2.49%) Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview You shake my nerves, and you rattle my brain! There is no question what investors worried about today. They took risk off the table at open ahead of the Fed minutes. Then morning comments from Fed member Quarles started to attract investors back in but at lowering volume. When the meeting minutes were released, volume popped back up as the market reacted. Here is the intraday volume on the QQQ ETF before and after the Fed minutes were released: The Nasdaq closed with a -0.03% loss, much better than the -1.71% dip at open. Volume was higher than the previous day. The 95% green body and 98% closing range shows the buying throughout the day. There is the potential, as with 5/11, that the gap down caused some shorts to cover and take profits. But much of the action seemed to be centered around the 2 pm release of the Fed minutes. There were two declining stocks for every advancing stock. The Russell 2000 (RUT) had the worst performance of the day with a -0.78% decline. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) declined -0.48%. The S&P 500 (SPX) closed the day with a -0.29% loss. The VIX volatility index rose another +3.94% but recovered from a 22% intraday spike. Technology (XLK +0.35%) and Communications (XLC +0.16%) were the only gaining sectors for the day. Materials (XLB -1.53%) and Energy (XLE -2.49%) were the bottom two sectors. It's interesting to note that Utilities (XLU) and Consumer Staples (XLP) led in the early morning before the major indices pivoted upward. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) advanced +0.44% for the day. The US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury yields all rose for the day, having dropped in the early morning hours but then climbing again after the Fed minutes were released. Both High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) prices and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices declined. Silver (SILVER) declined, and Gold (GOLD) was flat. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) declined. Timber (WOOD) declined. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) declined. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) dropped nearly -30% in the morning before recording to around a -11% decline at the time of writing. Ethereum (ETHUSD) was down -45% and is now around a -23.5% loss for the day. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio rose to 0.806. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. The CNN Fear & Greed index is still in the fear zone. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Alphabet (GOOGL) was able to recover from the morning dip and end the day with a +0.40% gain. Microsoft (MSFT) ended with a slight gain of +0.02%. Amazon (AMZN) lost -0.01% and Apple (AAPL) declined -0.13%. The latter three are all trading below their 21d EMA and 50d MA lines. Alphabet is above its 50d MA but below its 21d EMA. Salesforce (CRM) topped the mega-cap list with a +3.27% gain. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), Facebook (FB), and Intel (INTC) were also at the top of the list, with around 1% gains each. Tesla (TSLA), Exxon Mobil (XOM), AT&T (T), and Nike (NKE) were at the bottom of the list. Enphase (ENPH) and Solar Edge (SEDG), two solar energy stocks, topped the daily update growth list with greater than 5% gains. Snowflake (SNOW) and Zynga (ZNGA) also were near the top of the list. CloudFlare (NET), Palantir (PLTR), and Ehang Holdings (EH) were at the bottom of the list. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Initial Jobless Claims and the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index data will be released Thursday. Earnings Reports include Tencent (TCEHY), Applied Materials (AMAT), Ross Stores (ROST), and Deckers Outdoor (DECK). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The index recovered from the morning gap down but remained well below the key moving average lines. The early morning to afternoon gains created an upward sloping one-day trend-line that points to a +1.09% gain for tomorrow. The five-day trend line leads to a +0.46% gain. The trend-line from the 4/2 high shows a -1.89% decline on Thursday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Worries about the Fed's reaction to inflation don't seem to go away, and today it was on display as trading volume shrank considerably as investors awaiting the release of the minutes from last month's Fed meeting. The minutes did mention the possibility of unwelcome inflation, which suggests some reaction from the Fed. But still, the overwhelming comments say that any tapering now of treasury buybacks could stunt the economic recovery. The index was choppy after the 2p release of the minutes, but volume popped up higher as investors consumed the new data. In the end, investors bought back into some riskier assets, sending big tech in the Technology and Communications sectors higher for the day. Cryptocurrencies recovered some of the morning losses. Treasury yields rose as investors sold the safe-haven asset. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
2
Daily Market Update for 5/18Summary: Surprisingly robust earnings reports from big retail before market open sent major indices on a rally in the morning. Still, the bullish exuberance couldn't hold on, and the indices closed the day with losses. Despite the downward pressure on the indexes, the growth stock list had a relatively good day. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, May 18, 2021 Facts: -0.56%, Volume higher, Closing range: 2%, Body: 61% Good: Higher high, higher low Bad: Couldn't hold morning rally, closed day at low Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Red body under a long upper wick and almost no lower wick Advanced/Decline: More declining stocks than advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (-0.85%), DJI (-0.78%), RUT (-0.73%), VIX (+8.22%) Sectors: Real Estate (XLRE +0.19%) and Health (XLV +0.03%) were top. Industrials (XLI -1.46%) and Energy (XLE -2.32%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Surprisingly robust earnings reports from big retail before market open sent major indices on a rally in the morning. Still, the bullish exuberance couldn't hold on, and the indices closed the day with losses. Despite the downward pressure on the indexes, the growth stock list had a relatively good day. The Nasdaq closed with a -0.56% loss for the day but was able to turn in a higher high and higher low than the previous day. The index rose in the early morning but then fell the rest of the day, creating an upper wick in the morning but ending the day with a 2% closing range underneath a 61% red body. Volume was higher for the day, with intraday volume more elevated in the morning than in the afternoon. There were more declining stocks than advancing stocks. The S&P 500 (SPX) led the losses for the day, declining -0.85%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) fell -0.78%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) declined -0.73%. The VIX volatility index rose another +8.22%. Real Estate (XLRE +0.19%) and Health (XLV +0.03%) were the only sectors to gain for the day. Industrials (XLI -1.46%) and Energy (XLE -2.32%) were the bottom sectors. Energy continued last week's pattern of flip-flopping from top to bottom of the sector list. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) declined -0.45%. The index compares the USD against other major currencies. While the US economy recovers, expect investors to load up on currencies in markets expected to rebound soon as they transition out of lockdowns and back into fully open economies. The US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury yields all declined slightly. Both High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) prices and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices declined. Silver (SILVER) declined, and Gold (GOLD) advanced. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) declined. Timber (WOOD) declined. Copper (COPPER1!) stayed flat while Aluminum (ALI1!) declined. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio rose to 0.595. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. The CNN Fear & Greed index is still in the fear zone. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders All four largest mega-caps declined. Amazon (AMZN) lost -1.17%, closing right at its 50d MA. Alphabet (GOOGL) declined -1.16%, closing just below the 21d EMA. Apple (AAPL) continues trading below both moving average lines, declining -1.12% today. Microsoft (MSFT) faired the best, only losing -0.86% today but still closing below both moving average lines. Walmart (WMT) topped the mega-cap list with a +2.17% gain after surprising investors with better than expected earnings in their release before the market open. Retailer Alibaba (BABA) was the second-best mega-cap with a +1.27% gain. Toyota Motor Company (TM ) and Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) round out the top four. At the bottom of the list were AT&T (T), Chevron (CVX), Exxon Mobil (XOM), and Facebook (FB). Other retail reports were also positive, including Home Depot (HD). However, a lack of optimistic guidance and a dismal housing starts report put a damper on the positive report. More than half of the daily update growth stock list had gains today. Ehang Holdings (EH), Sumo Digital (SUMO), Snowflake (SNOW), and Crowdstrike (CRWD) were the top gainers for the day. Dr Horton (DHI) was at the bottom of the list with nearly a 4% decline after the housing starts report. GrowGeneration (GRWG), Facebook, Workday (WDAY) were also at the bottom of the growth list, all with more than 1% losses. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Crude Oil Inventories get an update on Wednesday. In the afternoon, FOMC member Bostic speaks, and the FOMC Meeting Minutes will be released. Investors will look closely for wording that shows concern over inflation and any hints toward monetary policy changes. Cisco (CSCO), Lowe's (LOW), JD.com (JD), Target (TGT), TJX (TJX), Synopsys (SNPS), Vipshop (VIPS), and FUTU Holdings (FUTU) report earnings. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The index attempted to rally toward the key moving average lines but faded late in the morning to close lower. The 21d EMA moved below the 50d MA, marking the downward trend. The five-day trend-line points to a +1.83% gain tomorrow. The one-day trend-line would result in a sideways move, with a slight -0.10% decline. The trend-line from the 4/2 high shows a -1.71% decline on Wednesday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up So far this week, we have a mix of signals. The higher high and higher low today are good after yesterday's indecisive candle. However, they fade from the morning rally, and a low closing range on higher volume shows much caution among investors. The defensive sectors leading for the day adds to the signal of caution. Maybe the positive retail earnings reports are just creating more fear that the economy is overheating. On the other hand, growth stocks fared pretty well in the market today. That could be from the declining US Dollar. However, I'd expect big tech might benefit from a declining US dollar as well, and we did not see that today. It could be that growth stocks declined so much that investors are just putting money into what they see as the bottom prices. Most of the growth stocks in the daily update list are down 50% or more from their 52-week highs. If investors see a bottom for growth stocks, it is time for a rotation from value back into growth. But expect any movement to be volatile as the market still watches inflation and the Fed very closely. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
2
Daily Market Update for 5/17Summary: Monday started with a dip, just like the past several Mondays. This week's difference is that the bulls entered in the afternoon, bringing the major indices back to near their open. Small Caps performed best on the day as inflation still weighed on big tech and mid-cap growth. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, May 17, 2021 Facts: -0.38%, Volume lower, Closing range: 85%, Body: 8% Good: Close in upper part of range, bulls took over in afternoon Bad: Lower high, selling most of day Highs/Lows: Lower high, higher low Candle: Tiny thin body over a long lower wick. Advanced/Decline: More declining stocks than advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (-0.25%), DJI (-0.16%), RUT (+0.11%), VIX (+4.84%) Sectors: Energy (XLE +2.32%) and Materials (XLB +0.88%) were top. Communications (XLC -0.79%) and Utilities (XLU -0.82%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Monday started with a dip, just like the past several Mondays. This week's difference is that the bulls entered in the afternoon, bringing the major indices back to near their open. Small Caps performed best on the day as inflation still weighed on big tech and mid-cap growth. The Nasdaq closed with a -0.38% loss on lower volume. The 85% closing range over an 8% green body is in the upper part of the candle over a long lower wick. The candle indicates the bulls weren't willing to let go, but still, there was indecision in the market. There were more declining stocks than advancing stocks. The Russell 2000 (RUT) performed the best for the day, closing with a +0.11% gain. The S&P 500 (SPX) declined -0.25%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) lost -0.16%. The VIX volatility index advanced +4.84%. The Energy sector (XLE) led for another day, advancing +2.32%. Materials (XLB) was the second-best sector with a +0.88%. 7 of the 11 sectors declined, with Communications (XLC) and Utilities (XLU) at the bottom of the list with -0.79% and -0.82% declines. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) declined -0.12%. The US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury yields all advanced for the day. Both High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) prices and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices declined. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) advanced. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) advanced. Timber (WOOD) declined. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) advanced. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio rose to 0.676. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. The CNN Fear & Greed index is still in the fear zone. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Amazon (AMZN) and Alphabet (GOOGL) advanced while Apple (AAPL) and Microsoft (MSFT) declined. Amazon rose +1.47% and closed above its 50d MA. Alphabet gained +0.46% and closed above its 21 EMA. Apple and Microsoft both closed below their 50d MA, with -0.93% and -1.20% declines. The top mega-caps for the day were Exxon Mobil (XOM), Merck & Co (MRK), Toyota Motor (TM ), and Amazon. The majority of mega-caps were down, with Comcast (CMCSA), AT&T (T), Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), and Tesla (TSLA) at the bottom of the list. There were growth stocks that did well while others did not, perhaps depending on their sector. Lemonade (LMND), Chewy (CHWY), FUTU Holdings (FUTU), and Palantir (PLTR) were the top four. At the bottom of the list were Peloton (PTON), DraftKings (DKNG), RH (RH), and Square (SQ). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Building Permits and Housing Starts data will release on Tuesday. API Weekly Crude Oil Stock data will update after market close. Earnings releases will include Walmart (WMT), Home Depot (HD), Sea (SE), Baidu (BIDU), Trip.com (TCOM), and Macy's (M). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The index remained in about the same spot, below the 21d EMA and 50d MA lines and above the 13,000 support area. The five-day trend-line points to a -0.24% decline for tomorrow. The one-day trend line is just below that, showing a -0.62% declined. The trend-line from the 4/2 high shows a -2.55% decline on Tuesday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Tax day was mostly uneventful. The indexes dropped buy then caught support, and the bulls bought back stocks at a discount into the late afternoon. The indecisive inside day means we'll have to wait until tomorrow for confirmation on a direction. The expectation is for sideways or higher, but the market could decide to go lower before it goes higher. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321