Get started

Nasdaq Composite Index CFD

Abnormal DistributionGoing against the norm. Modeling stock markets using non-normal distributions. That is the only way to take into account the massive volatility that markets can reach. arxiv.org Laplace Distributions manage to analyze prices better than normal ones. It is, as if, stock market is not normal, as in abnormal. As if it defies all physics. 2020 surely suggests that. Rest assured, 2020 was not the worst violation of "normal" physics. The 2020 Swan may have made headlines, but 2008 is surely unforgettable for young and old alike. It is an example of how deep and unpredictable a crisis can become. Before the crisis, a plausible risk assessment would give us the following region. This assumption would end up catastrophic. A 2-sigma difference may not seem much, but it ended up being a 40% gap. The 2020 crash shown before, reached a 6-sigma deviation in a shorter timeframe than the following ones. Comparing apples-to-apples with the other charts, 2020 was less than 2-sigma on 300-month length. Suddenly, 2008 looks, and was in fact, more painful than 2020. Sticking to the same interval (monthly) of analysis and with the same length, we go back in time, in 1980s, just after stagflation ended. Once again, investors were baffled to see markets grow and grow, above all expectations. Curiously, Black Monday occurred on the exact 4-sigma limit on the 300M length. Moving swiftly on, we reach the "Roaring '20s". Spoiler Alert, the same happened. Price reached above any possible expectation . An investor in 1926 would do an analysis based on their historical data. They could not have known the future price action. The 2-sigma channel we drew in 1926 ended up deviating up to 6-sigma. As we all know, The Great Depression followed up. That was a similar >6-sigma event. Price reached below any possible expectation . If you believe 2-sigma is all that Dow can do, don't think twice... ...think quadruply (as in 4-sigma) The 2-sigma limit was dwarfed... ...from the scale of the events that followed. After all, stock markets must go in places where nobody believes possible. No second thoughts must flood our minds to reach the top. All hope must be lost to reach the bottom. Extra Charts: A small-looking but deadly bear trap could be all it takes to create a massive bubble. Dividing by M2SL reveals that equities are not that overpriced. They are sitting comfortably at the mean. Has Big Tech grown enough? For 20 years, consumers were the result of the growth of these companies. Now, governments need digital payment systems, digital identities, IoT. All of these will come mainly from existing corporations, not so much from government production. The .com bubble was uncharted territory for technology. Now, supply has developed, and believe it or not, we are still in charted territory. The IXIC/SPX ratio (technology dominance) hasn't even managed to make an all-time high. Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori
DJ:DJI
by akikostas
9
déjà vuCircle is the most perfect of shapes. It optimizes its area perfectly. An architectural marvel with no point of failure. And it is unique. All circles are similar to each other. Some small, other large. In the end identical. Cycle is the Hellenic word of Circle. I purposefully call it "Hellenic" instead of "Greek" Market cycles are just that, cycles/circles. All of them are identical clones of the original. Price is after all, nothing more than perfect fractals, the equation of which is, and will forever be, unknown to us. FED is the all-powerful entity that gives birth and death to bull markets. Its only weapon is yield rates. Don't go against the FED. Yield rates up = Bull Equity Market Yield rates down = Bear Equity Market Many think this is the other way around, that yield rates kill equity markets. Why do rate hikes help equities though? Because Bonds. Bonds suffer during periods of rate hikes. And they soar when yield rates remain constant or fall. The usual investment strategy of equities+bonds is creating a rapid shift in flow as we speak. For a year, massive amounts of wealth was withdrawn from bonds, and invested into equities. This trend is about to shift rapidly. And the speed of such a shift is extreme. While short-term rates are very fast moving, long-term yields represent a heavy market, and thus are more important in our analysis. I will ignore the FEDFUNDS rate because it represents a fraction of the weight of US10Y. Long-term yields didn't change much in 2007, but the crash was devastating. In 2018 the same happened, but faster in US10Y. The slope was much higher than in 2007. This resulted in a literal black swan event. The consequences of the 2020 crash are still unknown. Moving to today, we witness an unparalleled change in yield rates. This has resulted in massive bond crashes as we have shown before, and will most certainly lead to incalculable effects in the equity market. History has shown that the stronger the rate change, the harder the crash. This makes sense. The higher yield rates go, the greater the incentive to invest in bonds. Be aware, the market is waiting for the FED to trigger the crash. Make sure to pick the correct side when the cycle ends again. Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori
TVC:US10Y
by akikostas
6
US Equities Intrinsic AverageThe yellow resistance zone is expected to be pivotal for the stock markets. Although some indices appear close to ATHs, the presented spread graph suggests the intrinsic value of the US stock market isn't even half of the previous highs. Same graph with monthly candlesticks: Fundamentally: Although rate cuts are expected, historically they mark the beginnings of bear markets The significant 7 makes up more weight than Canada, France, China, UK, and Japan combined. With de-dollarisation and world progressively relying less on US doesn't look positive for the 7 giants Timing the markets can be difficult, but with the recent deterioration in the labour market shaky elections in 2024 (likely to be priced in before) historically strong equities from January to mid-February --> I speculate a bear takeover in early 2024. For intrinsic graph sceptics, here is a simple average of the 4 indices:
SP:SPXShort
by Sanzhar_m
1
How to break a channelOur bodies tend to grow as we age. Our minds and skills also tend to grow as we age. Some skills however, never grow. A child may draw a line. It can be squiggly, but still, a line. It doesn't change much as we age though. An analyst can pretend to be a pro, just by drawing a single line. Crazy right? Two lines, one straight, one curvy. Both lead us to the same conclusions. That markets are high. An evolution of the simple line could be a pair of parallel lines. Analysts, being human, always revert to such naive assumptions as to how markets work. Hand-drawn, subjective channels are now science for some reason. At times, such assumptions have led to the most massive of traps. With a single stroke, we have managed to trap ourselves two times, and in a massive way. It is us who may set the traps and/or fall in them. Quote of the day: Channels don't spawn naturally, only candles do. You don't have to look that far back to see traps like these. NVDA a few years ago, broke out of a bearish channel. IXIC as well. Selling back there you would have missed the .com bubble. We have become like CJ and The Truth, where we see patterns everywhere, and we trust what we drew ourselves. The definition of insanity? An arbitrary trendline may mislead you. Suddenly, another line has showed up. An analyst must be careful, as to whose signals they trust. Let nature and science do the talking. You just have to stop talking, and start listening. Charts are mute. An analyst must avoid using charts to convince. This is trap-setting. A chart must be left alone, in quiet, to pass on its message. Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by akikostas
VIX Index at Lowest Levels Since 2017OVERVIEW As of 12/12/2023, CBOE:VIX is at 11.82. There have only been a handful of periods over the last 30 years where stock market volatility is at a similar level, including 2007 and 1994. Some would argue it implies an increasing level of volatility will be due in 2024. What is the VIX? The CBOE Volatility Index, is a real-time market index representing the market's expectations for volatility over the coming 30 days. Investors often refer to the VIX as the "fear index" or "fear gauge" because it is one of the most recognized measures of market volatility. Here's a breakdown of what the VIX represents: Volatility Measurement: The VIX measures the stock market's expectation of volatility based on S&P 500 index options. It is calculated using the bid and ask prices of S&P 500 index options. Forward-Looking: Unlike many market metrics that look at past performance, the VIX is forward-looking. It provides a 30-day forward projection of volatility. Market Sentiment Indicator: A high VIX value indicates that traders expect significant changes (volatility) in stock prices, which is often associated with market uncertainty or fear. Conversely, a low VIX suggests low expected volatility and is often associated with market stability. Not a Direct Stock Market Indicator : It's important to note that the VIX does not measure the direction of stock market movements. Instead, it measures how much the market is expected to fluctuate, regardless of the direction. Use in Investment Strategies: Some investors use the VIX to help in making decisions about market timing. For example, a high VIX might suggest a market turning point, leading some to consider it a good time to buy, while others might see it as a signal to sell. VIX Derivatives: There are various financial products, such as VIX futures and options, that allow investors to trade based on their views of future market volatility. Risk Management Tool: For portfolio managers and sophisticated investors, the VIX can be a tool to hedge against market volatility or to take a position on future volatility. In summary, the VIX is a key measure of market expectations of near-term volatility conveyed by S&P 500 stock index option prices. It has become a crucial tool in financial markets for hedging, trading, and investment strategy formulation
CBOE:VIX
by kingthies
7
Top of the world... again.The scale of what is happening cannot be understated. Massive amounts of money have been printed, then burned immediately. It is as if the FED is trolling us... Or we are being trolled by our own minds. Equities reflect the mental state of investors, big and small alike. The dilemma is causing headaches, it has reached a paradoxical state. No human, not even ChatGPT can solve paradoxes, it is not suicidal. This chart is one attempt into clearing the picture. This exotic chart attempts to calculate the price of equities based on the current state of yield curve inversion. It can help calculate the "absolute" strength of indices like IXIC. Similar calculations can be made using the DXY*IXIC/100 formula. It has reached with incredible accuracy the 1.272 retracement, as shown in the main chart. In short, the higher this chart goes, the better the QE Machine performs. The Yield Curve is now showing a clear warning signal. I have been watching closely the price action, now it is more certain than ever that the yield curve may correct sooner than later. A correction of the yield curve has usually led to severe recessions. After all of this analysis, still no conclusion about equities... Occam's razor could be the solution. Clear and simple analysis gives the best results. --- 1. Simple Price Patterns. Sometimes, the simplest answer is the correct one. --- 2. Classic Dow Theory. It dictates that the weakness of the few may lead to the weakness of the many. DJI is the first to show signs of weakness. Will wider indices like SPX weaken? With bear flags clearly appearing, and an apparent HnS pattern forming, things couldn't get worse. The post-GFC bull market may fail any time now. --- 3. The Basis of Stock Market There is this rule that everybody knows and most forget. Price is split between two areas, above and below average. When price is above average, sellers dictate price. Similarly, when price is below average, buyers dictate prices. Price is higher than average for a long-long time. It is one of the longest-standing equity bull markets. For many years, equity prices are facing increasing selling pressure and decreasing buying pressure. Why? Because investors progressively cash-out of equities. There may be too little interest for serious investors to buy into equities. Equities are too expensive and too risky for them to be a viable investment decision. You can find more about investment risk in @SPY_Master 's idea linked below. Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori P.S. There is much information I may have left out of this idea. I don't want to be repetitive and I try to keep ideas short and clear. You can find more info about the QE Machine in the following idea.
NASDAQ:IXIC
by akikostas
Arbitrary LinesBabylon, the city where everybody spoke different languages. In the end, Babylon met grave consequences. (Macro perspective of the main chart) Citizens of Babylon, in our case traders, can barely communicate. They all speak in different timeframes, and with contradicting interests. Which translator in their right mind can untangle spaghetti? Many different lengths of regression. How can any translator give a geographic position of anything? Even if I try to make an argument... ... I am plotting arbitrary lines. (bearish trendlines) A line is nothing but weak. It can easily "disprove" what I have "proved". (bullish trendline) If we are to leap ahead, we must throw away all of which we are sure to be correct. Surely there is something we can agree upon, right? For I was conscious that I knew practically nothing... -Plato It seems that everything is based around the chaos theory. The flight of a butterfly can affect tornadoes. Traders (like me) fall in the trap of making chaos into facts and arguments, and conclude into definitive answers. Clean and ordered answers taken out of chaos. Ordo Ab Chao Is anything/everything that we do a desperate attempt to revert entropy/chaos? Like an insane ritual? Maybe we know nothing. Maybe making arguments and conclusions is meaningless. Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori
NASDAQ:NDX
by akikostas
3
New week Nasdaq is still highHello everyone, Although the index price lacked positive momentum in recent trading, its general stability within the axes of the ascending channel, based on holding above the main support extending towards 14800.00, in addition to the formation of the 55 moving average for additional support with its position at 14945.00. This contributes to confirming the positive continuity for the upcoming trading. The above invites us to wait for the price to accumulate positive momentum to enable it to form new ascending waves, thus reiterating the pressure on the obstacle extending towards 15530.00, and by surpassing it, it will succeed in reaching the additional stations, which may start from 15670.00 and 15870.00, respectively. The general trend expected for today: bullish
OANDA:NAS100USDLong
by ElenaMayi
IXIC Bearish SeptemberNASDAQ is forming a potential head and shoulder pattern The neck line of this shoulder is 13247 If it goes below that or the daily candle close below that level that means the bearish trend will start Looking @ DXY also it seems it is coinciding as usual with the potential down turn of the market . 20 Sept is the Fed event and that can bring the news to push the market down The strong support level is 12289 level Anything around 12k area should be a strong buy as the bound from this level would be amazing,
NASDAQ:IXICShort
by vortexTradingSolutions
Nasdaq 2000 top vs Current Market.As Rektember draws to a close The seasonal's actually point up for Q4 Santa Rallies are real market phenomenons! But is this time is different? Could we have actually topped?? Compared to the tech wreck of 2000 You can see the initial drawdown was around minus 40% from the top We then got a mini bull run, a recovery wave. About the same 40% in an upward reversal move. The 2000 downdraft and recovery occurred over a shorter time frame than what has transpired so far today.. The current market structure has more volume / price action that has taken place below current prices.. This in theory should provide more support. The market was caught off guard regarding the Fed wanting to stay higher for longer (I'm not sure why!) ... and seemed to have been pricing more aggressive rate cuts sooner in 2024 This could cause a repricing of risk and expectations. Chamath Palihapitiya has told his CEO's to have adequate cash into 2025, but has revised his thinking and expects they need to have enough cash to get them through to 2026! If more captains of industry come around to this way of thinking... the ways to generate cash on hand is to withdraw from spending and possibly laying off extra capacity in the workplace! You see how this thinking feeds on itself and into the broader economy... If we look back in a few years time and 2022 did prove itself to be the manic top... and there is plenty of evidence it was, in terms of sentiment and broad retail involvement (dog coins , meme stocks, NVIDIA at PE way north of 100) WE shouldn't be too surprised!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by BallaJi
Nasdaq Long As I said 1 month ago NQ100 Will Go to 22000Trend Bullish P above vwap yearly Maket profile shiftig higher POC shifting higher: Now the 15 most institutions and institutional traders, that control more than 75% of the makets( Market makers show their cards:Thier footprint is POC, a phenomenon they cannot hide, but shows exactly what they are thinking, where they buy or sell, and a forecast where they will go to).... And it is cystal clear:They wanna higher prices.... FED is losing power, and enarly noone but noone does care what FED or Powell and his freinds are telling ya. The truth is that that the so called infation(yes so called inflation as it was made by FED itself) is cooling down, DXY is depreciating, and retail traders are becoming smarter. The bear market of 2022 was a good teacher, and those among us started to learn, learn and understand the markets, some better than the most professional investors,traders and institutionals... This lesson was hard but it was worth it: The smart trader of today has clearly underszoad that no one ,but no one can stop the trend. And he has also understoad it takes more than watching the news ,following blindly the FED or the so called ,, EXPERTS,,---Those who were made and nouuned as Experts by the media....that is gaining its profits out of the losses of the retail traders, some professionals and most amateurs. The reality is: The true fundamentals facts we are reading and watching every day are not true at all: 99% fake, false,manipulated. What can we do? How can we know if the news we get are fake or real? Well: My answer is we can´t! And if some news are real, they wont help us. Why? Because they are old. Done,Gone. The news are made by humans, and the persons are making news they have intentions:Money,Power,....Many insiders, many intrigues... Well this is trading. It seems to be a chaotic jungle:If we ignore the rules. This is trading. What to do: I found my own answer, that helps me to stay focused,awake and profitanle.I m not saying that I make all the time profits. But I use to say over the long run I have beat and will beat the markets,many times,again and again. Drawdowns are part of the game, and every trade we take, might it be on lower or bigger TF displays drawdowns,because the markets are volatile:Some more and some less.But they all are volatile. It also depnds on your protfolio,if you trade 1 asset, or more assets, and the time horizons... Statistically, and you can check it up day trading will end in losers, as there is a 50 50 chance to win or lose in day trading. On longer TF and time horizons that statistics change thier edge into higher win chances... Therefor I trade only big TF, and only the trend. The intradays ,i use to buy or sell in trend directions..Only. Back to Nasdaq: Inflation cools down Oil down DXY down Higher Highs Higher Lows Higher POC Volatility of VIX down(Risk down) RSI long term above 50 Stochastic bullish The market makes higher highs, and Higher lows, but RSI makes Higher highs and lower Lows!This is a clear indication that the trend will continue and the new part of the trend will be mch more stronger than the previouse one. Why 22000 and higher: The companies will and must make more profits than expeted to compensate thier past losses of the last 3 years, and evetuelly get prepared for future crashes...So they will increase the production, that increases more job demands, that leads to more hiring people, that will boost household incomes, that will boost more spending because ppl earn more income, that will rise the production cycle of the economy as the production rises, that will prevent RECESSION! Yes ! Recession: FEDs propaganda is recession, that wont come! Why? Well then read the logical aruments above! And i gotta tell ya something: The aruments above are for real and they are real facts of the last 80 years wrld economy. China, Japan, Europe! Even during the worse crashes China and Japan have been the first countries tehy recovered fast. Japan is refusing to increase the interest rates, and Just see how the economy machine is rolling on...The americans have understoad that logics, and it seems that FED and its friends have not understoad it, or they are unable to understand it. What is the Makrets answer? They BULL Nasdaq,Dow Jones, S&P and all other indices. That is they answer,and that makes FED much more powerless. Power to Traders. Good Trades and Good profits. Dave
CAPITALCOM:US100Long
by DaveBrascoFX
21
Nasdaq Extremely UV (Not like 2002) Again Check The M2 Supply I see people posting comparisons of the NDX 100 from 2000 comparing it to 2023. Its nothing alike people are still short waiting for a "collapse" that will never come due to the fact the USM2 is debasing and offsetting the actual index. I'm shocked not even the "experts" on Youtube or Twitter explain this to new people coming into the markets. Because they don't even understand this either. The Nasdaq is not going to collapse its extremely undervalued right now.
NASDAQ:IXICLong
by FederalXBT
NAsdaq Bearish Bump aheadNASDAQ is forming a potential head and shoulder pattern The neck line of this shoulder is 13247 If it goes below that or the daily candle close below that level that means the decent will start Looking @ DXY also it seems it is co-inciding as usual with the potential down turn of the market . 20 Sept is the Fed event and that can bring the news to push the market down The strong support level is 12289 level Anthing around 12k area should be strong buy as the bound from this level would be amazing
NASDAQ:IXICShort
by vortexTradingSolutions
NDQ | Hidden in plain sight...This is a period of recession, a period when hands change. Last becomes first and first becomes last. Curiously, if you mix and match the main indices, you will get bored of the same shape appearing over and over again. They all appear in the same period. This stuff is hidden in plain sight... NDQ vs DJI SPX vs NYA NDQ vs RUI RUI vs NYA RUA vs DJI This one is full of small HnS. A little rough but okay. And an extra speculation: DJI vs SPX Question: Where do all these HnS lead to? Who is the final recipient? Since all these charts are comparative to one another. Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori
TVC:NDQ
by akikostas
6
Crypto Market CapThe Total Market Cap , BTC and Altcoin Market appear to be breaking out of crucial long-term levels. Certain market conditions have to be met for either a bull-run trigger or bear-cycle continuation, based on the degree of economic stability and certainty in it. I'm going to discuss critical technical levels and their implications, as well as my fundamental views for the year. Bad Outlook for Q3/Q4 of 2023: Equity market health and controllable inflation would aid crypto development in the long run. So far the battle against inflation and stock market health have been promising. However, by considering the following 3 factors the outlook may rapidly change: Fading AI hype The end of the U.S. presidential election stock rally cycle, which occurs in the year after midterm elections (last midterms were in Nov 2022) In Q3 of 2023 (particularly August and September) there is historically more consumption due to the beginning of a new academic year, implying further inflationary pressures and more gov intervention 1) Consumer spending accounting for >2/3 of GDP and 2) currently being discouraged through prolonged high interest rates - amplify my positive GDP growth expectations = more inflationary pressures. Technical Levels with fundamental evaluation: I believe long-term levels are crucial for trend analysis. We're currently testing multiple levels simultaneously. Due to my pessimistic views for the upcoming months I am bearish in the short-run and bullish in the long-run. From current price level I'd expect +- 30% drop (below 20k), shown in figure 1. If we do go to the upside, we could see a 60% short-term price gain, presented in figure 2. Either way great volatility is to be witnessed. Figure 1 Figure 2 I hope you took away some important points. Trade safe :) Feel free to comment your opinion
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by Sanzhar_m
1
NASDAQ Long 2 Possible Scenarios of the next 21 DaysWell a chart says more than 1000 words Overall trend is bullish, but current predicted crrections(See my previouse Nasdaq trading ideas!) and Gap filling has been ocured successfully. Scenario 1: We keep arriving the bottom of the bear area future zone(red marked Time zone) Powell speaking in Jacksonville, but fundamentals are yellow green. If we break 14488, then it means the market will fill the last possible gap, below 13885, an we certanily will go to around 13200 area(Local area) So watch closely the support reaction. At this area I expect very hard and bloody fight between the bears and the bulls, as the bullish trend has been started at 11890, and 12885-13200 is the first bullish acumulation zone.So the bulls will efend this area, with everything what it takes to survive. Volume is up, and e have a big ,,K,, sshifting of the MP in this area. That means we have doubled POC(bullish). In senrio 2 we will see a big drop off the market below the last gap, but very quikly and fast agrressively attak of the bulls, that will reat a big V pattern:this is a good area to buy, uz the risk reward managemnet will be high enough to survive or protet the position. After that we retrurn the green bullish zone whih I have alulated, an then re again:The red area is a natural defene of the bears, so we will expet that the bears will try to push down the market. It is logial. Any kind of speulation will be just ruining your strategy. And the we will fight higher. This is normal range as we will enter September! And this month is just jerk. So a sideway movement and lower volatility is expted, if higher volatility omes in, then I ill ertainly be long, to add my positions, whih I have built at 10490 already. For daytraders and salpers:Trade in trend diretion as the probabilitiy of winners will be higher. Good luck Traders!
CAPITALCOM:US100Long
by DaveBrascoFX