SPY 400/394 Put Credit Spread - March 21 ExpiryFill: 0.54 Credit
Strikes: 400/395
Max Risk: 500-54 = 446
This was an order that I had been sitting on all day, trying to hold myself back from reducing my target price. Ill be honest, I liked these strikes so I wanted the trade.
Reasoning:
1. Large move down today, attacking prior lows - This is jumping the gun a bit as I usually wait for some confirmation of an upward movement, but as I mentioned I liked the strikes and the 10% Margin of error on the SPY, something I dont get often with my trades unless IV is high.
2. Yellow line is the lowest we have seen in 2022, and this still provides a 5% cushion from there as well.
3. Capital Deployment - I have been sitting on my hands alot recently, but I need to get trades out there. The reality is that I have built in risk management into my strategy and taken this risk into account when I project yearly returns, this is great to do, but means that if I do not deploy the amount of capital that I plan to, I dont hit returns because there is already a loss cushion built in. Currently around 20% deployed, and I should be at 34% as per my trading plan.
Questions? Comments? Leave them below!
IWM
What happens after double top rally in markets?I am using index ETFs here since I use them for option trades and they are so widely traded. Study DIA, SPY, and QQQ and note the double top similarity as it corresponds to RSI. DIA and SPY were a little stronger in that RSI showed a double top above 50. QQQ had an earlier 20 below 200 ma cross, so it is weaker and its RSI did a double retest of 50. Friday's candle broke the lows on these three charts and technically triggered more downside.
However, in this anything can happen market, there is a possibility that this Friday-Monday pullback results in another move higher before making new lows. For trading, this means be patient and do not over-commit to one direction. You can start a smaller swing position and add more puts when you have more confidence in the trade.
Also, though not shown here, stochastic %K has given a sell warning on the daily chart. The candles from 9-11 Feb moved %K from above 80 to below 20. Sometimes more downside follows immediately, while more often there is a price bounce up first as %D is still making its way lower. I cannot predict which will happen but I know to be on the lookout for a reason to buy puts.
I want to discuss IWM separately, as it does not have the same double top formation on RSI and price. IWM is more bearish, as 20sma crossed below 200 earlier, and so this chart is weaker. When you look at its weekly chart and indicators, you may want to buy swing puts.
2/13/22 HALHalliburton Company ( NYSE:HAL )
Sector: Industrial Services (Oilfield, Services/Equipment)
Market Capitalization: 30.120B
Current Price: $33.52
Breakout price: $31.10 (hold above)
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $32.10-$29.00
Price Target: $35.20-$36.60
Estimated Duration to Target: 90-94d
Contract of Interest: $HAL 4/14/22 35c
Trade price as of publish date: $1.89/contract
2/13/22 RTXRaytheon Technologies Corporation ( NYSE:RTX )
Sector: Electronic Technology (Aerospace & Defense)
Market Capitalization: 142.598B
Current Price: $95.27
Breakout price: $94.60 (hold above)
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $94.50-$89.40
Price Target: $99.80-$100.60 (1st), $126.00-$127.40 (2nd)
Estimated Duration to Target: 48-52d (1st), 540-560d (2nd)
Contract of Interest: $RTX 3/18/22 100c, $RTX 1/20/23 100c
Trade price as of publish date: $1.26/contract, $7.15/contract
2/13/22 OXYOccidental Petroleum Corporation ( NYSE:OXY )
Sector: Energy Minerals (Oil & Gas Production)
Market Capitalization: 40.143B
Current Price: $42.98
Breakout price: $41.55 (hold above)
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $41.50-$38.40
Price Target: $39.20-$40.50 (Reached), $48.40-$50.60 (2nd)
Estimated Duration to Target: 80-83d (2nd)
Contract of Interest: $OXY 5/20/22 50c
Trade price as of publish date: $2.50/contract
2/13/22 LMTLockheed Martin Corporation ( NYSE:LMT )
Sector: Electronic Technology (Aerospace & Defense)
Market Capitalization: 107.893B
Current Price: $396.19
Breakout price: $396.00 (hold above)
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $384.80-$369.85
Price Target: $416.00-$420.00 (1st), $434.00-$442.00 (2nd)
Estimated Duration to Target: 103-110d (1st), 211-221d (2nd)
Contract of Interest: $LMT 6/17/22 400c, $LMT 9/16/22 400c
Trade price as of publish date: $19.40/contract, $25.30/contract
Rolling (IRA): IWM February 25th 193 Short Put to March 31st 178... for a .58 credit.
Comments: The 193 isn't at 50% max yet, but it's the highest strike I've got in my short put ladder, so taking the opportunity to both realize a little gain, strike improve, and receive a credit for doing it. Total credits collected of 2.09 (See Post Below) +.58 = 2.67 relative to a current price for the March 31st 178 of 1.93, so I've realized gains of .74 ($74) so far.
Rolling (IRA): IWM February 18th 194 Short Put to March 25th 178... for an .83 credit.
Comments: With only 7 days to go, rolling down and out to the strike paying at least 1% of the strike price in credit. Total credits collected of 3.53 (See Post Below) + .83 = 4.36 relative to the March 25th 178's current value of 1.80, so I've realized gains of 2.56 ($256) so far.
$IWM Russel 2000 - Small caps previous support now resistance?Small caps tend to lead the market. Not a great picture as we saw a strong reversal off previous support yesterday. Technically we have the 50dma trading below both the declining 200day sma and emas. The moving averages are pointing down and we are still under the anchored vwaps from the previous highs. We also seem to be forming a rising wedge formation which are usually continuation patterns in the direction of the previous trend (currently down). Not much to be bullish about in this chart, so odds are in favour of further downside, unless we can climb above a mountain of significant resistance levels above (something which seems unlikely at this stage).
2/9/22 TECKTeck Resources Ltd. ( NYSE:TECK )
Sector: Non-Energy Minerals (Other Metals/Minerals)
Market Capitalization: 19.179B
Current Price: $35.95
Breakout price: $34.75 (hold above)
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $32.10-$29.85
Price Target: $38.20-$38.90 (2nd)
Estimated Duration to Target: 58-60d (2nd)
Contract of Interest: $TECK 5/20/22 40c
Trade price as of publish date: $1.88/contract
2/9/22 BILLBill.com Holdings, Inc. ( NYSE:BILL )
Sector: Technology Services (Packaged Software)
Market Capitalization: 25.38B
Current Price: $247.48
Breakout price: $260.00
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $222.85-$179.70
Price Target: $302.00-$309.00 (1st), $344.00-$352.00 (2nd)
Estimated Duration to Target: 36-39d (1st), 58-62d (2nd)
Contract of Interest: $BILL 3/18/22 270c, $BILL 5/20/22 300c
Trade price as of publish date: $9.50/contract, $16.00/contract
2/9/22 SBLKStar Bulk Carriers Corp. ( NASDAQ:SBLK )
Sector: Transportation (Marine Shipping)
Market Capitalization: 2.726B
Current Price: $26.66
Breakout price: $27.30
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $23.95-$21.95
Price Target: $30.70-$31.20 (3rd)
Estimated Duration to Target: 77-82d (3rd)
Contract of Interest: $SBLK 5/20/22 25c
Trade price as of publish date: $3.00/contract
2/9/22 CEIXCONSOL Energy Inc. ( NYSE:CEIX )
Sector: Energy Minerals (Coal)
Market Capitalization: 1.004B
Current Price: $29.13
Breakout price: $29.50
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $26.95-$24.05
Price Target: $32.50-$32.80 (1st), $36.20-$37.40 (2nd)
Estimated Duration to Target: 22-25d (1st), 41-46d (2nd)
Contract of Interest: $CEIX 3/18/22 25c, $CEIX 6/17/22 30c
Trade price as of publish date: $4.90/contract, $3.80/contract
1 to 1 correction complete on IWM, looking for a 5th wave and 3kSo many growth stocks look similar in that we see large flat 3 wave corrective action that appears complete to me. This could be the blow off beginning. Typical for 12 months from tightening to top. Maybe its faster this time we shall see.
Rolling: IWM February 25th 197/198 Short Strangle to March 18th... 199 short straddle.
Comments: As with my February 18th IWM tight short strangle, rolling out my February 25th to the March 18th 199 short straddle for a 4.24 credit. Total credits collected of 12.80 relative to the March 18th 199 short straddle price of 14.46, so also still slightly underwater. I'll continue naturally continue to do defensive adjustments as necessary to keep these setups from getting too directional.
Rolling: IWM February 18th 198/197 Short Strangle to March 11th ... 199 short straddle for a 4.24 credit.
Comments: Locking in some realized gains by rolling the tight short strangle out to the March 11th 199 short straddle with 14 days to go. Total credits collected of 12.10 relative to the March 18th 199 short straddle price of 13.01, so it's still slightly underwater (credits collected are less than the current price of the setup).