10/16/22 IONSIonis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. ( NASDAQ:IONS )
Sector: Health Technology (Pharmaceuticals: Major)
Current Price: $46.36
Breakout price trigger: $47.85
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $44.65-$39.75
Price Target: $55.50-$56.30
Estimated Duration to Target: 131-139d
Contract of Interest: $IONS 1/20/23 50c
Trade price as of publish date: $3.20/cnt
IWM
QQQ WHY THE 258/259 AREA IS SO IMPORTATNT .382 AND 50 % So what is next and why the support at 258/259 is why it is the point of focus in this CRASH . it is a pullback of 50 % from 2020 low to the peak . but more important it is a .382 within the super blowoff that ENDED AT 408.71 RIGHT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE LONG TERM TARGET 406 TO 410 SEE DEC 2021 .So so many what to jump to the long side as we hit the target in time and targets in price the low was 254.9 just taking out the support but not in the sp almost to the tick it help 3490/3511 . I am and have been counting this as a super cycle top and will maintain that we had wave A from the peak at 408.71 down to the june low .And that we rallied in a perfect abc back up into the major spiral turn aug 16 to the 25 th for super cycle wave B we now have five waves down in wave 1 . I stated in in 8/16 this is the time we will see the market up here before we Crash in super cycle wave C low . wave 2 up has begun but if you think wave 2 up is going to be for a few weeks Think again . in every crash since 1902 the wave 2 of c is so quick you got TRAPPED with the rest the next decline is the CRASH and it will not bottom till 196 to 164 once it starts . So do you feel luck or Smart most of you I know will be feeling Lucky that why I make money and you seem to always which you did not make the mistake that you seem to not be able to stop . That is because I was a New york fireman before starting wavetimer . why does this matter it is the way my brain works I learned from two traders who were one a marine and one an ex navy seal . what do we all three have in common it is the being able to control our fear to stay alive and over come the natural fear of flight .I am no smarter than the next I just process it in a different way . best of trades Wavetimer !
updated nyse chart target for panic lows oct 2022Final low is in DEC at 8909/9223 I am working on the spirals still from past I will have that within this week . The chart posted is that of the NYSE I use this over all to give me a much clearer view as it is ALL the data . in 1987 panic the market dropped to a near perfect .382 from peak to low oct 1932 . and then again in 2009 the drop from 2000 to 2002 times 1.618 gave us the low .Then again in march 23/2020 from the peak in 2020 to the 1974 low a perfect .382 drop to the low . . I am of the view we will return to the level of the 4TH wave which is the march 23 low 2020 soon . Best of trades WAVETIMER ! I am 75 % net short see posts and aug 16/25 turn . or you should be in 100 % cash and should remain until US $ reaches 128 area . Most of you just want to H>O>P>E> that we will be off to the races after this low. I can tell you based on the debt cycle and after a 40 year bull market in expansion of debt that just started a long term BEAR MARKET . I have stated for the record we will see a P/E of lower that 14 and unemployment to see well above 6.3 % I stated by year end if I am off it will be by march 2023
updated NYSE PANIC AND TARGET OCT 4TH/20TH 10781/9609 Final low is in DEC at 8909/9223 I am working on the spirals still from past I will have that within this week . The chart posted is that of the NYSE I use this over all to give me a much clearer view as it is ALL the data . in 1987 panic the market dropped to a near perfect .382 from peak to low oct 1932 . and then again in 2009 the drop from 2000 to 2002 times 1.618 gave us the low .Then again in march 23/2020 from the peak in 2020 to the 1974 low a perfect .382 drop to the low . . I am of the view we will return to the level of the 4TH wave which is the march 23 low 2020 soon . Best of trades WAVETIMER ! I am 75 % net short see posts and aug 16/25 turn . or you should be in 100 % cash and should remain until US $ reaches 128 area . Most of you just want to H>O>P>E> that we will be off to the races after this low. I can tell you based on the debt cycle and after a 40 year bull market in expansion of debt that just started a long term BEAR MARKET . I have stated for the record we will see a P/E of lower that 14 and unemployment to see well above 6.3 % I stated by year end if I am off it will be by march 2023
10/5/22 RVNCRevance Therapeutics, Inc.( NASDAQ:RVNC )
Sector: Health Technology (Pharmaceuticals: Major)
Market Capitalization: $2.124B
Current Price: $29.17
Breakout price: $30.00
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $27.45-$24.15
Price Target: $41.10-$42.00
Estimated Duration to Target: 132-142d
Contract of Interest: $RVNC 1/20/23 30c
Trade price as of publish date: $3.70/contract
10/5/22 CEGConstellation Energy Corporation ( NASDAQ:CEG )
Sector: Utilities (Electric Utilities)
Market Capitalization: $29.200B
Current Price: $88.17
Breakout price: $89.45
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $86.80-$82.45
Price Target: $93.20-$95.00
Estimated Duration to Target: 21-23d
Contract of Interest: $CEG 11/18/22 95c
Trade price as of publish date: $3.00/contract
10/5/22 LVSLas Vegas Sands Corp. ( NYSE:LVS )
Sector: Consumer Services (Casinos/Gaming)
Market Capitalization: $32.568B
Current Price: $42.62
Breakout price: $43.00
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $39.70-$36.20
Price Target: $47.40-$48.60
Estimated Duration to Target: 66.72d
Contract of Interest: $LVS 12/16/22 45c
Trade price as of publish date: $3.20/contract
IWM if you lose 160's If you lose the support and bottom made today during the sell-off. Then i see no real help maybe just a pit stop at 150 ranges before ending up in the 140's.
HOWEVER, it looks like support has held and we should be getting close to seller's exhaustion. I'm looking for a bounce back towards 175 range but not to exceeed 190 before running into overhead R.
9/28/22 XBISPDR S&P Biotech ETF ( AMEX:XBI )
Sector: Miscellaneous (Investment Trusts/Mutual Funds)
Market Capitalization: $ --
Current Price: $81.20
Breakout price: $84.40
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $80.50-$74.75
Price Target: $99.10-$100.80
Estimated Duration to Target: 75-81d
Contract of Interest: $XBI 12/16/22 85c
Trade price as of publish date: $5.40/contract
9/28/22 ALBAlbemarle Corporation ( NYSE:ALB )
Sector: Process Industries (Chemicals: Specialty)
Market Capitalization: $31.587B
Current Price: $277.95
Breakout price: $297.50
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $275.50-$250.30
Price Target: $364.40-$369.30 (3rd)
Estimated Duration to Target: 152-162d (3rd)
Contract of Interest: $ALB 3/17/23 320c
Trade price as of publish date: $32.20/contract
9/28/22 SBUXStarbucks Corporation ( NASDAQ:SBUX )
Sector: Consumer Services (Restaurants)
Market Capitalization: 96.703B
Current Price: $87.11
Breakout price: $90.30
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $86.30-$81.55
Price Target: $106.60-$108.40
Estimated Duration to Target: 65-71d
Contract of Interest: $SBUX 12/16/22 92.5c
Trade price as of publish date: $3.50/contract
9/28/22 CALXCalix, Inc ( NYSE:CALX )
Sector: Electronic Technology (Telecommunications Equipment)
Market Capitalization: $3.937B
Current Price: $62.44
Breakout Price: $63.20
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $59.30-$55.05
Price Target: $69.40-$71.20 (1st), $80.40-$82.00 (2nd)
Estimated Duration to Target: 31-33d (1st), 76-79d (2nd)
Contract of Interest: $CALX 11/18/22 65c, $CALX 1/20/23 70c
Trade price as of publish date: $4.80/contract, $5.10/contract
Update (IRA): IWM Sept 30th 177/Nov 18th 200 Long Put DiagonalComments: Just updating my short delta hedge (See Post Below) in IWM so that it appears more toward the top of my ideas queue ... . As of the last short leg roll: Cost basis of 22.58 with a 177.42 break even on a 23 wide.
As you can see, price has pushed up quite a bit into the long leg of the setup, but I'll keep rolling the short leg out to reduce cost basis and look to roll the long leg up and out if I run out of time and/or don't get the move I need (i.e., back through the short leg of the setup; this may be somewhat of a tall order at this point, that's 18 strikes below where IWM is currently trading). At the moment, doing this would cost me (and will probably cost me when I actually go ahead and do it). For example, rolling the November 18th 200 long to the December 16th 230 (90 delta), would cost 28.69 at the mid price, increasing my cost basis to 51.27 on a resulting 53 wide with a 178.73 break even (a slight improvement over my current 177.42 break even).
I've still got 7 potential rolling opportunities of the short leg from week to week, so will cross that bridge when I come to it ... .
SPX, find support in a Regression ChannelSPX daily chart with long term Regression channel, 3405 days, with +3/-3 stdev bands. The Comfort Zone is the reddish area located between +2 and 2 stdev, where at least 95% of price occurrences should occur.
This chart shows that the uptrend that started on June 16 failed to break above the +1 stdev line. The mean served as support and allowed a small bounce that failed at +0.5 stdev, retraces and the mean and this time the mean fails to serve as support.
Last Friday it closed at the -1 stdev line. This fact coupled with the extreme reading of some indicators point to an immediate rebound of the SPX. There is too much technical damage on the chart to augur a long life for any rally that starts now. However, we expect the SPX to move higher in the coming days, a trading opportunity.
Decision weekWe have no new low on daily basis, no new low on weekly basis, but we could get one on monthly basis. SPY have to rally to 377,25 to prevent this. Next week. IWM and QQQ are similar.
DJI has already a daily and a weekly low.
XTN leads to the downside, not a good signal.
Can dollar and yields hold this pace or will they turn?
Maybe a bull/bear battle at the June monthly lows, but therefore it needs rising prices early next week.
We will see, decision week is coming...
Status: Porfolio UP 80%+ since 8/18 Post ..What's Next?Before: In my last post on 8/18 that it would be time for me to go heavy in the market, which I did.
Now: Up 80.45% on my portfolio since my huge short on $SPY and other adjacent tickers $QQQ, $IWM, $AAPL, etc. Could not have rode this move better.
Next: I'm out on a 90%+ shorts and would suggest trimming aggressively now in anticipation for a rally within the next few days. Will update on my thoughts of what's to come.
..there's so much frenzy in the markets, but your porfolio's got to feel good now 💸
9/18/22 DISThe Walt Disney Company ( NYSE:DIS )
Sector: Consumer Services (Cable/Satellite TV)
Market Capitalization: $197.346B
Current Price: $108.25
Breakdown Price: $107.15
Sell Zone: $120.75-$113.75
Price Target: $90.90-$89.70 (2nd)
Estimated Duration to Target: 77-82d
Contract of Interest: $DIS 12/16/22 110p
Trade price as of publish date: $8.25/contract