IBIT | Be PatientThe market is declining rapidly, and Bitcoin remains highly volatile, making it dangerous to take risks in the current environment. I have marked the HTF (High Time Frame) demand zones as critical areas to monitor.
Trades should be based on the reactions observed in these demand zones on lower timeframes. This approach helps minimize risk while identifying potential entry points with stronger confirmation.
I keep my charts clean and simple because I believe clarity leads to better decisions.
My approach is built on years of experience and a solid track record. I don’t claim to know it all, but I’m confident in my ability to spot high-probability setups.
My Previous Analysis
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Ishares
Understanding Bitcoin ETFs: What They Are and Why They Matter?1. What is a Bitcoin ETF?
A Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) is a financial instrument that tracks the value of Bitcoin and allows investors to gain exposure to the cryptocurrency without directly owning it. Bitcoin ETFs operate similarly to traditional ETFs, which track the value of assets like stocks, commodities, or indices. Managed by financial institutions, Bitcoin ETFs are available on traditional stock exchanges, making it easier for investors to participate in Bitcoin’s price movements through regular brokerage accounts.
There are two main types of Bitcoin ETFs:
Spot Bitcoin ETFs: Track the current market price of Bitcoin, directly reflecting its value.
Futures-based Bitcoin ETFs: Track the value of Bitcoin futures contracts, which are agreements to buy or sell Bitcoin at a predetermined price at a specified time in the future.
In the U.S., Bitcoin futures ETFs have been approved and launched on major exchanges like the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), while spot Bitcoin ETFs are still under regulatory review by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
2. How Does a Bitcoin ETF Differ from Buying Bitcoin Directly?
While both Bitcoin ETFs and direct Bitcoin purchases provide exposure to Bitcoin’s value, they differ in several key ways:
Ownership and Custody
Bitcoin ETFs: Investors own shares in the ETF, but not the actual Bitcoin itself. The ETF provider holds the underlying Bitcoin or Bitcoin futures contracts, taking on the responsibility of secure custody.
Direct Bitcoin Purchase: Investors who buy Bitcoin directly through cryptocurrency exchanges or wallets own the Bitcoin and have full control over it, including the responsibility for secure storage.
Access and Regulatory Oversight
Bitcoin ETFs: Are traded on traditional stock exchanges and are regulated by financial authorities. This oversight ensures investor protections that are not typically present in cryptocurrency markets.
Direct Bitcoin Purchase: Involves buying from cryptocurrency exchanges, many of which are less regulated and may lack certain protections offered by traditional financial products.
Trading Hours
Bitcoin ETFs: Trade during standard market hours, typically from 9:30 AM to 4:00 PM EST. Investors can buy or sell shares only within these hours.
Direct Bitcoin Purchase: Bitcoin can be traded 24/7, giving investors the flexibility to enter or exit positions at any time.
Taxation and Fees
Bitcoin ETFs: Investors are subject to capital gains taxes and may also incur management fees for ETF administration.
Direct Bitcoin Purchase: Direct Bitcoin investors are also subject to capital gains taxes. However, they may face lower or no management fees, depending on how they store their Bitcoin.
Use of Leverage and Derivatives
Bitcoin Futures ETFs: These funds allow investors to speculate on Bitcoin’s future price movements without holding actual Bitcoin. However, futures-based ETFs can be more complex, as they rely on futures contracts rather than spot prices, which can introduce tracking errors.
Direct Bitcoin Purchase: Investors buy Bitcoin directly, holding actual units of the asset without derivatives or leverage, providing a more straightforward exposure to its current market price.
3. Why is a Bitcoin ETF Important for the Cryptocurrency Market?
The approval of a Bitcoin ETF is a significant milestone for the cryptocurrency market for several reasons:
1. Broader Accessibility
Traditional Investors: A Bitcoin ETF opens the door to traditional investors, especially those who may not be comfortable using cryptocurrency exchanges. Investors can access Bitcoin exposure through familiar brokerage accounts without needing to learn about wallets or private keys.
Institutional Interest: A Bitcoin ETF creates an easier path for institutional investors to participate in the Bitcoin market, bringing in large amounts of capital. As institutions enter the market, Bitcoin's market liquidity and price stability may improve.
2. Increased Legitimacy
The introduction of a Bitcoin ETF legitimizes Bitcoin as an asset class in the eyes of regulators, investors, and financial institutions. It signals recognition from regulatory bodies and increases trust in Bitcoin among mainstream investors.
3. Boost to Market Liquidity
Bitcoin ETFs can increase liquidity in the market, as they provide a regulated and accessible means for both retail and institutional investors to gain Bitcoin exposure. Greater liquidity can reduce volatility, making the market more stable over time.
4. Potential for Price Appreciation
With increased demand and accessibility, a Bitcoin ETF could lead to upward price pressure on Bitcoin. This is especially relevant for spot ETFs, which would require the fund to hold actual Bitcoin, thus increasing demand for the underlying asset.
5. Step Toward Broader Cryptocurrency ETF Adoption
Approval of a Bitcoin ETF could pave the way for ETFs focused on other cryptocurrencies like Ethereum or Solana, expanding the options for crypto exposure within traditional markets. This could accelerate the overall growth of the cryptocurrency sector.
4. Pros and Cons of Bitcoin ETFs
While Bitcoin ETFs offer numerous benefits, they also come with certain drawbacks.
Advantages of Bitcoin ETFs
Ease of Access: ETFs are easily accessible through traditional brokerage accounts, removing the need for new accounts on cryptocurrency exchanges.
Regulatory Protections: ETFs are regulated by financial authorities, providing investors with protections that may be absent on cryptocurrency exchanges.
Enhanced Liquidity: Increased market liquidity through ETF participation can reduce volatility and provide a more stable trading environment for Bitcoin.
Professional Custody: ETF providers manage Bitcoin custody and security, making it easier for investors who do not want to worry about wallet security or private key management.
Diversification Opportunities: Bitcoin ETFs can be included in retirement accounts or blended into traditional investment portfolios, broadening their appeal as a tool for diversification.
Disadvantages of Bitcoin ETFs
Limited Trading Hours: ETFs can only be traded during standard market hours, unlike Bitcoin, which is available 24/7 on cryptocurrency exchanges.
Management Fees: Most Bitcoin ETFs come with annual management fees, which can reduce overall returns for investors.
Potential for Tracking Errors: In futures-based ETFs, tracking errors may occur, meaning the ETF's performance may not accurately match Bitcoin’s actual price movements.
No Direct Ownership of Bitcoin: ETF investors do not own Bitcoin itself, which means they miss out on the ability to use or transfer the asset directly.
Market Dependency on Regulators: The introduction and ongoing success of Bitcoin ETFs depend on regulators’ willingness to approve and support crypto-based financial products, which may limit the ETF market’s expansion.
5. Outlook and Future of Bitcoin ETFs
The potential approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF in the U.S. could be a game-changer. With increased institutional and retail access, the Bitcoin ETF market could drive greater adoption and legitimacy for cryptocurrencies overall. However, regulatory challenges remain, as the SEC has thus far resisted approving spot Bitcoin ETFs due to concerns about market manipulation and lack of robust investor protections.
As regulatory clarity improves, we may see a broader array of crypto-based ETFs emerge, possibly including multi-asset ETFs that combine Bitcoin with other cryptocurrencies or assets, such as stocks or commodities. Furthermore, as institutional adoption grows, the role of ETFs in the financial ecosystem could increase, potentially influencing Bitcoin’s price dynamics and volatility as well.
Conclusion
Bitcoin ETFs represent a bridge between the traditional financial world and the emerging cryptocurrency market. While they offer unique advantages, such as regulatory protections and ease of access, they also come with limitations like management fees, limited trading hours, and the lack of direct ownership. For those who want exposure to Bitcoin within the security of a regulated investment product, Bitcoin ETFs provide a promising option.
The success and potential of Bitcoin ETFs lie in their ability to draw both individual and institutional investors into the cryptocurrency market, making it a potentially transformative development for the financial world. As more countries consider ETF approval, and as the cryptocurrency industry matures, Bitcoin ETFs could play a pivotal role in the mainstream adoption and integration of digital assets.
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Trade Like A Sniper - Episode 23 - TLT - (7th June 2024)This video is part of a video series where I backtest a specific asset using the TradingView Replay function, and perform a top-down analysis using ICT's Concepts in order to frame ONE high-probability setup. I choose a random point of time to replay, and begin to work my way down the timeframes. Trading like a sniper is not about entries with no drawdown. It is about careful planning, discipline, and taking your shot at the right time in the best of conditions.
A couple of things to note:
- I cannot see news events.
- I cannot change timeframes without affecting my bias due to higher-timeframe candles revealing its entire range.
- I cannot go to a very low timeframe due to the limit in amount of replayed candlesticks
In this session I will be analyzing Ishares 20+ Treasure Bond ETF (TLT), starting from the 6-Month chart. (For some reasons I read "Ishares" as "Israeli" XD.
BTC TRIANGLE BREAKOUT WILL IT CONTINUE?Last week, I published my idea about the next massive move of BTC as it enters the crucial stage of the triangle in this chart of BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
At 8 AM ET, we saw a price breakout of BTC from the near 2-year-long diagonal resistance. This leap happened upon the "breaking" news of SEC approval of the iShares Bitcoin Spot ETF application. The coin reached its price of nearly $30,000 before it was deemed to be false.
That causes it to go pump-and-dump and notice that the price movement is still above the resistance as it stabilizes after that hype, which shows the demand from the market as well as respecting the trendline that could potentially be the new diagonal support line of BTC from a technical perspective.
But be mindful that ETF approval news could happen anytime this week and, let's be aware with our trading positions at this time, set areas for stop profits and stop loss because although we're in a slightly bullish trend, we are embracing the world of cryptocurrency, volatilities is observed at any given time, thus invalidating our technical analysis. Take something with a grain of salt.
My next strategy would be a potential bounce play of the coin on the trendline at the $28,000 range. I'm optimistic that the SEC won't deny the Bitcoin ETF applications and consider the false information and the latest market manipulation as their excuse. If denied, we could expect a breakdown from the diagonal line.
Happy trading :)
HYXU: Resistance Break & RestestTechnical Analysis:
HYXU (iShares International High Yield Bond ETF) has been slowly grinding upward since it's October '22 lows. After almost 17 months beneath the Bull Market Support Band (20w SMA, 21w EMA), it crossed over the the upside in November of last year and has shown significant gains in the last 10 months.
The assets last big push came at the significant resistance level at $47.50, which it finally flipped after 3 failed attempts. Having just completed a successful retest of the level as support, I anticipate a clean move up to $49, then $51.25, based on prior S/R levels.
Fundamental Analysis:
As we've all had our eyes on the Fed for the last year and a half, I'm sure most of you know that interest rates are at their highest levels in roughly 22 years. By doing this, the Fed has pulled a large portion of liquidity out of the bond market with enticing, low-risk Treasury yields.
However, as we approach their terminal rate of ~550 BPs, and as the high cost of money starts to impede businesses' ability to invest and grow, I anticipate a rotation out of stocks and into fixed income investments. The most readily accessible of which, for retail investors, are corporate bond ETFs such as HYXU.
With a yield of ~6.5%, it remains more than competitive with even the highest paying treasury, and offers investors a liquid alternative to locking up their funds for months or years.
Feel free to post your questions, comments, concerns, qualms, quandaries, contributions, or conversation below!
**Disclaimer**
This commentary is provided for general informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, legal or accounting advice nor does it constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities referred to. Individual circumstances and current events are critical to sound investment planning; anyone wishing to act on this article should consult with his or her advisor.
💿 iShares Silver Trust | Aims $26, $33 and $44iShares Silver Trust (SLV) is developing a strong bullish bias based on this long-term, monthly, chart.
First, Silver peaked in April 2011 (left side of the chart).
This is followed by a strong bear market that hit a low in December 2015.
This low is tested again March 2020 thanks to Covid.
The whole period from late 2015 to early 2020 can be considered a consolidation phase.
After the March 2020 low, which set the lowest price since February 2009, a new bullish wave develops.
With a higher low set in September 2022 and now strong bullish action/signals developing, Silver is aiming at a higher high.
The targets based on Fib. proportions together with EW theory go as follow:
1) $23.4
2) $29.6
3) $33.3
4) $43.8
This setup is invalidated with a monthly close below $13.0.
This is super-long-term.
Thank you for reading.
Namaste.
6/5/22 ITBiShares U.S. Home Construction ETF ( AMEX:ITB )
Sector: Miscellaneous (Investment Trusts/Mutual Funds)
Market Capitalization: $--
Current Price: $60.52
Breakout price: $61.00
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $59.80-$54.00
Price Target: $67.40-$68.80
Estimated Duration to Target: 138-145d
Contract of Interest: $ITB 10/21/22 60c
Trade price as of publish date: $5.80/contract
LONG SLV (iShares Silver Trust) - very bullish!AMEX:SLV price action is showing a strong bullish flag on the monthly time-frame. Due to the macroeconomic environment, very high inflation rates, and high gold:silver ratio, I am expecting the SLV price to break the bullish flag on the upwards side. If this happens, we can look at the following levels for taking profit:
Take profit level 1: $22.35
Take profit level 2: $24.48
Take profit level 3: $26.44
Take profit level 4: $27.80
Take profit level 5: $31.08
Take profit level 6: $33.00
Those levels were drawn in accordance to various resistance levels.
Good luck,
Your Ganbu
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Bullish on infrastructureThis fund tracks Global infrastructure. 62% USA, 13% CANADA, 10% ASIA, 5% EUROPE, 10% ETC.
As Biden has launched his infrastructure bill it is expected that Infrastructure will perform well in the next 4 years. Infrastructure performed well before corona so there is no doubt that after Covid is finished Infrastructure will "pop-off".
From a technical analysis point of view, the ETF is in a bull run. I would classify the stock as a hold right now. However, once SMIO starts dipping I would sell.
I am very excited about the future of infrastructure and this ETF. If you want a well-diversified portfolio this ETF is a must.
XEG Canadian Oil safer playThis one is part of iShares and as such it contains the safest of the Canadian Energy Companies. The distribution is garbage right now with 0.02 /q but the history of this one has distributions as high as 0.08 in recent (2 years) history. A decent way to ride energy up. Not saying we are in a bull market on oil and no one knows where it is going over the next year, but 73-75 on USO seems to be the current (next week or two) target.
> is my most recent study on Oil, and purely technical, and not overly complex. Fundamental study is always recommended with oil.
> disclosure, I have a position built during 2020 on this.
Preferreds set to move lower$PFF - Preferred stocks have reached a critical maximum for now and with today's price action we may see an additional confirmation to RSI an MACD. RSI has already dipped for a sell signal and MACD is showing a strong divergence with the price. Volume activity is showing as well that buying power is slowing down. If we have a bullish engulfing candle today as a close that will be a strong confirmation.
iShares Trust Global REIT ETF- gain in the next two daysREET is developing minute wave 3 up and ended the day at 0.5 retracement of minuette wave 3, which could be the end of wave 4. Minuette 3 ended exactly at 1.618 fibonacci level of wave 1.If this scenario persists the expected traget for the next two days will be between 19.21 and 19.86. FOLLOW SKYLINEPRO TO GET UPTDATES.
iShares TIPS Bond ETF: Possible Top. Sell opportunity.TIP has potentially priced a top on the 2019 aggressive rally that started last with last November's bottom. 4H is already pulling back STOCHRSI = 8.271, STOCH = 41.432). The Golden cross took place in March and the MA50 has been acting as a Support since then. Based on the last two occurrences, the price should now consolidate around the 1D MA50 before making a more aggressive sell move into the new bear market. Our first TP is 113.30.
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