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Relief Rally in Stocks ahead of FOMCStocks got a major lift ahead of the FOMC rate decision today. As we are all well aware, the Fed is expected to lift rates by 25 basis points (one quarter of a percent) to begin their 'firefight with inflation' . The rate hikes were heavily priced into the markets, and when the decision is made, we can expect a relief rally as the uncertainty is lifted. Inflation is weighing on global stocks, so the action could help ease investor fears. The Kovach OBV has picked up sharply with the buying, taking us all the way back up the entire range to 4327. If you recall this was our exact level from yesterday's report. It is likely that the majority of the rally has taken place, but we could test as high as 4421, a relative high. If we face resistance, however, we could retrace the entire rally back to support at 4144.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
EURUSD before FED Today is the FED Interest Rate decision. This will definitely cause some moves which will present us with some trading opportunities. We saw price holding yesterday which probably means that the market is awaiting the news to find its next clear move. Like we said in our analysis yesterday, best case scenario would be to see price pushing up to 1,1200 and then a sharp drop to follow. That will give us great entry levels and we can then expect a continuation down. We're not looking to buy now or not even after the news. We're still following the downside bias and we're waiting for the best entry levels!
by ForexTrendline
15
Is the US Federal Reserve hiking 25 basis points tomorrow?The US Federal Reserve kicked off its Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on Tuesday, with the markets widely anticipating a 25 basis-point hike in what would be the first interest rate increase since 2018. Fed Chair Jerome Powell had earlier raised the prospect of a 25bp hike, telling a House financial services committee hearing two weeks ago that he is "inclined to propose and support” the increase as inflation has sat above 2% and as the United States’ labor market continued to recover. High inflation underscores need for tightening With the US consumer inflation soaring to a 40-year high of 7.9% in February, a rate hike this week is highly anticipated, although uncertainty lies in how much the Fed will have to tighten to tame inflation. Markets are also pricing in up to six or seven hikes this year, one for each of the upcoming FOMC meetings. Higher inflation expectations among US consumers, according to surveys by the New York Fed and Cleveland Fed, also ramp up the likelihood of a more hawkish Fed. 50bp hike also on the table Although many market watchers anticipate a 25bp hike when the Fed caps off its meeting on Thursday, some economists say a 50bp is also likely. Last month, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard called for a full percentage-point hike by July 1. ING Bank’s Chief International Economist James Knightley in a note last week said it wouldn’t be surprising “to see maybe two FOMC members vote for 50bp.” Knightley and other economists from the Dutch bank most recently said markets are back to pricing 160bp hikes in six meetings in total for 2022, although the Fed may have five rate hikes planned for the year. Russia-Ukraine war places Fed in a precarious spot However, the worsening conflict between Russia and Ukraine, which has reached its third week, puts the Fed on alert due to expectations that the war could worsen inflation and result in a potential global economic recession that could derail the United States’ recovery momentum. Still, the Fed appeared to be undeterred by the crisis, with Powell saying in a recent speech to Congress that the near-term effects of the war and Western sanctions on Russia remain highly uncertain. "Making appropriate monetary policy in this environment requires a recognition that the economy evolves in unexpected ways. We will need to be nimble in responding to incoming data and the evolving outlook,” Powell said. Squeezing household income A rate hike in the US — the first since the COVID-19 pandemic emerged — could further squeeze household income at a time when gas prices hover around record highs. Gasoline prices in the US surged to an all-time high of $4.33 on Friday, before retreating over the weekend, according to data from the American Automobile Association. Higher interest rates will raise borrowing costs in banks, lifting variable rates on credit card debt and affecting interests on auto loans and mortgages. This could further weigh on consumer’s spending habits.
by BlackBull_Markets
Bond Yields at Highest Levels Since 2019Bonds have edged out new lows as investors weigh deescalation of the war in Ukraine and increased expectations for a Fed rate hike . Yields in ZN, the 10 year treasury note, are the highest they've been since July 2019. We have sliced through multiple technical levels below, and have established new lows, yet again. We do appear to be seeing a brief pivot from lows at 124'19, but 125'07 is providing resistance confirmed by a red triangle on the KRI. If we are able to continue the rally and break through resistance, then 125'17 and 126'00 are the next targets above. If we continue to sell off, then 124'06 is the next target below.
CBOT:ZN1!Short
by quantguy
SPY COULD FORM A MACRO WEDGE - INTEREST RATESGet your tin foil hats ready for this one folks. It's a long shot, but just throwing this perspective out there to see how it lands in a few weeks. SPY loves to form wedges, especially after the breakout of other patterns. In this case, SPY was forming quite the strong channel since September, until it broke out in January (see chart below) Now that it has broken out, and volatility is at its highest, one potential outcome is SPY / SPX forming a wedge to calm the storm. Here is where it gets interesting - charts also love symmetry. The price action on one side of a pattern often times matches the price action on the opposite side as well (time is a factor that affects how this looks on the chart, either squeezing or elongating the trends) Before SPY dumped in January, it had a stair stepping, wedge-like pattern on it's way up - which took 200 days to reach ATH from $415 (a key level). SEE BELOW Now here is where the tinfoil hat comes on. So far, SPY has mimicked the double bottom formation first seen on the left side. SEE BELOW Notice both form a 'W' shape, with the left side having less volatility, and therefore having more time to form price action (30 days) The right side having more volatility, formed a similar pattern in 10 days. 1/3 of the time This would make sense if we also look at the volume, which is on average 2.4x higher than last September / October. Following this same logic, we should reach 415 in approximately 1/3 the time it took for SPY to reach ATH from 415 (200 days mentioned previously.) That means it would take ROUGHLY 66 days to reach 415 from ATH -- March 11 -- The Friday before the first released rate hike and when the FED will release their interest rate plans. This would put the March 15 - 16 FOMC meeting right at the vertex of this wedge. The MACD also confirms this in a way. If SPY continues its current MACD trend on the Monthly, it should approach baseline in March, flipping red (Take a look at SPY chart, and what happens when the monthly MACD flips red without a catalyst like the FED meeting.) It also means we could see a more volatile spike to around 460 in the very short term (first week of February or so) and then a trend down from there. What are some problems with this perspective? It's based entirely off of connecting dots that may not even be there. Also, with all of the news and volatility happening right now, SPY could do something completely un-organized and un-predictable, but it doesn't hurt to try. This post was written largely for fun, and I'll keep the analysis in the back of my mind. However, I do not plan on basing any of my strategies or trades on the idea alone. Let's see how poorly this ages ;) - Thanks for reading!
AMEX:SPYShort
by SJ_CAP
3
Growth vs. Value: Skating to Where the Puck Will BeHockey legend Wayne Gretsky famously said: "Skate to where the puck is going to be, not where it has been." This sometimes applies in investing and trading. Towards what object have investors been skating, figuratively speaking? Currently, financial media, fund managers, and commentators have been emphasizing the opportunities in value over growth for several months. And for good reason: Energy, a value / cyclical sector unloved for about a decade, has outperformed every other sector this year by a huge margin. It has risen by approximately 20.5% since January 1, 2022. Even it's uptrend channel could not contain it (although it looks to be consolidating at the moment or perhaps mean-reverting). Increasingly, market participants have been "skating" towards value areas and away from growth for over a year now, as anyone who has been burned by long trades in tech / disruptive innovation knows. For example, a spread chart (also called a ratio chart) of ARKK/SPY shows just how dramatically growth has struggled. ARKK is a well-known US ETF containing high-beta stocks typically categorized as disruptive-innovation stocks, i.e., high growth names. This chart evidences just how much growth has struggled vs. the S&P 500. Notice, though, how this spread chart shows how close to major, long-term support the ratio has moved. Examples abound of high-growth names having been crushed in powerful bear markets in those names. Some of them are even top names with innovative products and services and an impressive record of earnings / sales growth: Square ( NYSE:SQ ) has declined about -68% from all-time highs, Upstart ( NASDAQ:UPST ) fell about -81% from its high to its low in late January 2022, and ( Roku ) dropped about 78% from its peaks. Even large cap tech not gone unscathed: Facebook NASDAQ:FB suffered a nearly -50% decline after a huge earnings / guidance disappointment. But in general, large-cap tech has been the exception in growth until the selloff this year. While growth / tech in general has struggled for months, large-cap tech names such as GOOGL, AAPL, MSFT, and NVDA have outperformed. Even AMZN's sideways move for about a year should be considered outperformance relative to other high-growth names as shown by the ARKK chart above: see the chart below, which is a relative chart of AMZN vs. ARKK, revealing that even with AMZN's lengthy sideways move, it has dramatically outperformed growth / tech names more generally. Markets are in constant flux. So often, just when the little people (retail traders like me) take notice of a powerful new trend or outperformance, it ends. So I'm trying to watch for where markets are moving rather than focusing on where they are. In short, is growth bottoming out relative to value? Here are a few charts to consider. 1. The main weekly chart above (also copied below) is a spread chart showing the ratio of NASDAQ:IJT (small-cap growth) vs. small cap value. Notice how close to major long-term up trendline support the ratio has moved. And the weekly ratio is also right at support at March 2021 and May-June 2021 lows. The RSI for this relative chart also shows that it's oversold to 33.65, a level that only appears in multi-month (and often multi-year) intervals. Even the two RSI lows in 1H 2021 occurred 2 months apart, but this is the exception looking back longer term. 2. Large-cap growth is right at support at a long-term uptrend line. See the weekly spread chart of the ratio between XLK/SPY. AMEX:XLK is a US ETF that is heavily weighted towards large-cap tech. 3. Equal-weighted growth vs. equal-weighted tech RYG/RPV is also very close to long-term upward trendline support. 4. Interest rates are nearing long-term downtrend channel resistance—at the upper line (the actual downtrend line). Interest rates have soared powerfully since mid-2020, and the Federal Reserve has hawkishly signaled coming rate hikes, and market participants have behaved as though rates will keep on going to the moon—by selling tech / growth, which struggle when rates rise b/c of discounting of future cash flows used to value such names. The viewpoint that rates could turn around in the near future seems radical, contrarian and unreasonable. But consider this chart below. Could rates turn around just after a large move just after millions of market participants have been flocking towards value names that outperform in rising-rate environments? Some well-known experts have already taken this view. www.cnbc.com It seems priced into the market right now that the 10-year yield could continue rising, that the interest rates could even breakout higher above long-term downtrend resistance, and that the Fed is likely behind the curve in controlling inflation. It seems consensus that value could continue to outperform long-term, and that growth could break even long-term support levels and continue to plummet. But if this is priced into the market, shouldn't one consider buying what's already priced in? Especially because maybe what is priced into the market will not last. Thinking about where the "puck is going to be" may suggest that tech / growth is making a multi-month or multi-year low or that interest rates are going to pullback in the next few months, allowing tech to thrive again.
NASDAQ:IJT
by SquishTrade
4
What Will Happen to Crypto During a Recession or Stagflation?Inflation in the US markets hit 7.9% last month - while the Federal Reserve was claiming that inflation was "transitory" all of 2021, realizing the US dollar may be in risk of systemic collapse they finally started to consider the possibility of raising interest rates (it's been near 0% for almost a decade now) -- arguably their only weapon to combat inflation at this point. (As a reference, Russia's interest rate jumped to 20%+ after their stock market collapsed after their invasion of Ukraine in late Feb.) Increased interest rates means higher interest rates on loans, which is good for savings but bad for investment since loans become more expensive to do. Experts are predicting that a recession -- possibly a global recession -- is looming in the horizon. What does this mean for crypto? Given that crypto's massive jump in 2020-2021 took most people by surprise there isn't too much reliable data out there but there's a few things we might be able to discern based on a few data points: - Crypto adoption tends to be high in countries with unstable economies; the rankings vary from study to study but adoption rates in Ukraine was high, even before the war. (The US and Russia usually in the top 10.) It's interesting to note that the inflation rate in Ukraine in 2015 was almost 50% -- which makes assets like Bitcoin and other currencies much more appealing. If the major superpowers' economies become unstable, we may start to see similar patterns emerge as a result. (Japan's inflation rate has been very low for decades and their crypto adoption rates are also very low, despite being relatively friendly to the technology itself.) www.statista.com - In terms of raw numbers, India has, by far, the highest number of people who own crypto (~100 million+) but their inflation rate has been climbing gradually in a similar pattern to the US in 2021. (With the officials telling people the same exact story as the Federal Reserve in the US last year -- "don't worry, it already peaked." 😂). In the same vein, most developed countries are in the same boat as the US right now as the disruptions on the global supply chain (due to COVID restrictions) continues to push inflation higher almost everywhere. - In the short/medium term, the proposed solution by the Federal Reserve (a marginal 0.25% interest rate increase in March) isn't very likely to make that much of a difference until the Feds start to get more aggressive with the hikes. (Which they have considered as a possibility, but are wary of announcing since they know it may trigger a downturn in the markets.) Inflation is very likely to continue for the rest of 22', in other words. - As of 20-21' lots of money has been thrown at crypto, DeFi, metaverse, and NFT projects both in business and personal deals -- many of them tied to traditional contracts in USD or fiat. (Although typically ill-advised, some people have been taking out cheap loans for crypto.) As fiat currencies become weaker, these fiat-crypto hybrid contracts are less likely to become common place, but will still make "pure" crypto deals more appealing. We might be able to estimate how much fiat money is tied to crypto assets based on market presence - BTC is the highest, by far, followed by ETH, DOGE, ADA, SHIB, XRP, DOT, SOL, etc. Coins that relied on marketing dollars to stay afloat (since it's currently only spendable in fiat money) are likely to be the most vulnerable. www.globaldata.com - During bull runs like the ones we've seen in 20-21', marketing/hype tends to reign supreme since cheap loans and rising prices tends to create a short-term market for pump-and-dump projects. During recessionary periods, however, crypto projects with more utility is likely to come out ahead. (As Vitalik Buterin says -- he "welcomes" a crypto winter so that more serious projects can finally get the attention that they deserve.) But we don't really know if a weakened USD or fiat as a whole really will lead to a "winter" -- there is also the chance that fiat money will run to crypto as a refuge, pumping up the price as a whole. Traditional finance outsizes crypto by a huge margin, after all -- all it takes is a small % of the former to affect the latter in an exponential way.
Long
by RyanTanaka
3
Bonds Test LowsBonds have smashed through relative lows in the mid 126's to find support at 126'00 which appears to be a technical and psychological level. We have added this as a technical level on the chart. ZN has been on a clear decline falling 3 handles from the 129's to the base of the 126's. The Kovach OBV is on a steady decline, but does appear to be leveling off suggesting we may find support here, or at least that the selloff may ease up. If not, the next target is 125'17. We do appear to be severely oversold and if we see a technical retracement into the bear trend we must break 126'11, where we are currently meeting resistance as confirmed by a red triangle on the KRI. After that, 126'19 and 126'28 are targets.
CBOT:ZN1!Short
by quantguy
The importance of Gold & its current price actionMany people consider gold as an inflation hedge, but the truth is that Gold in the present day is more of hedge against policy errors or catastrophic scenarios in broadly. It is more like insurance which could also appreciate in a scenario where real rates are falling. In case for whatever reason the financial system breaks, then gold is probably one of the best assets to hold, especially in physical form. Russia for example has been adding to its Gold reserves and could potentially add a lot more to it if possible, as we have seen that all these sanctions could do a lot of damage on the FX reserves it is holding abroad. So not only the conflict between Ukraine and Russia 'boosted' the price of gold due to all the issues it might cause to the financial system, but also all the uncertainty on an already stressed out system and all the potential money printing that will ensue shortly, have the potential to really take gold even higher. Gold is currently above its 2011 ATHs and the overall price action is very bullish. XAUUSD has broken above most major levels and has retested every single one of them. When the war broke out, it pumped straight to 1970 and then pulled back below the level it was before the war started. Every single breakout has been retested, as even the recent gap up after the nuclear threats was filled. 1910-1920 was the 2011 ATH and recently was resistance that turned into support, while it was also the weekly Pivot. The market bounced on it perfectly and closed the week with immense strength, right its most recent peak. Although it hasn't fully broken out yet, at least not above its GLD 2011 ATHs or generally its recent 2020 ATHs, the strength and the case for Gold is certainly here. In my next ideas I will mention why Gold isn't potentially the best play on inflation, but this doesn't mean it isn't an asset to hold regardless of how high or low inflation might be. As the final chapter of the 4th turning has begun, Gold could really reach 5000-10000 in the next 3-5 years, as breaking above this massive cup & handle pattern would be massive. 10 years in the making and it could really take gold even higher than that, as the devaluation of fiat escalates rapidly. I wouldn't say bet everything on Gold for sure, and I think in the long run Bitcoin is going to do better, while there is also still a chance we see a massive dollar spike that sends gold anywhere between 1350-1650. So be aware that even gold isn't 'riskless' in this environment. Finally some thoughts and ideas on tokenized gold, is that I find it pretty interesting and a decent bet. PAXG and XAUT had some spikes significantly higher than the actual gold price, something that has happened before too. I am using the price of PAXG on Kraken which has seen many spikes before, which could be seen as a potential way to get yield on your gold. By setting sell orders 5-10% higher than the spot price, just in case there is a spike and you are able to make a decent amount and then rebuy lower. You can even go long or short on various crypto platforms even on weekends, which makes it even easier to trade while news occur on weekends.
FX_IDC:XAUUSDLong
by BitcoinMacro
3
USDJPY Attempting a BreakoutThe price action of the USDJPY is currently attempting a breakout above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at 115.665. Bullish pressure was bolstered earlier today following Fed Chair Jerome Powell's hint at a very likely rate hike by the end of the month . If the breakout is successful, the price action will re-test the previous swing peak at 116.300. If not, a minor pullback to the 38.2 per cent Fibonacci at 115.248 may follow next. The latter is about to converge with the 100-day MA (in blue) and 50-day MA (in green), making it an even stronger support. That is why it is unlikely for a deeper correction to unfold in the near future.
Long
by Trendsharks
Bonds Soar off the Russia/Ukraine ConflictBonds have soared as risk off sentiment prevails as the Ukraine conflict intensifies. Russian forces are bearing down on Kyiv, the capital of Ukraine and civilian casualties are mounting. ZN has blasted off from highs at 127'08, through 127'22, and well into the 128 handle. We have cleared 128'01, the first level in the 128's, and have just broken through 128'10. With such a strong bull impulse, it is difficult not to anticipate a pullback or sideways currection at this point. We are likely to at least range at current levels, between 128'01 and 128'11, with a ceiling at 128'24. If not, expect a retracement to 127'22. Worst case, it is certainly possible that we will retrace the entire move to 127'08 (recall that gold did this just last week).
CBOT:ZN1!
by quantguy
ARKK possibly worth a swing for relief rallyJust tossing this one out there: Cathie Wood's ARKK Innovation ETF is within 1% of completing a round-trip to its pre-pandemic highs. It's also at the bottom of a fairly major parallel channel that it's been forming since February last year. In purely technical terms, it looks poised for a bounce. This is not a long-term hold, especially with Tesla as the top holding. Valuations remain high, and Tesla is being investigated by the SEC. I also wouldn't use call options to play this. The options premiums are super expensive. I'm just thinking buy a few shares for a technical bounce, and maybe sell at the 20-day EMA. Counterintuitively, the Russia-Ukraine crisis is a possible catalyst for a bounce. Forecasters seem to think that conflict in Ukraine will make the Fed more dovish this year, with fewer rate hikes than previously expected. $ARKK has been super sensitive to interest rate expectations, so it might be bullish for the ETF if rate expectations ease a bit. One nice thing about this trade: since we're so close to channel bottom, you can put a stop loss right beneath the channel.
AMEX:ARKKLong
by ChristopherCarrollSmith
2
US 10 YEARS - CONSOLIDATION ?WEEKLY (W1) Looks like a corrective move which should, for the time being, be seen as a consolidation phase or pullback towards the triangle pattern breakout level ! Indeed, looking at the weekly picture, we can identify two important support levels, which are the following : S1 : 1.7960 (Tenkan-Sen) also roughly the 38.2% Fib ret (@ 1.7850 % of the last 1.3360 %-2.0630 % move S2 : 1.6600 (Kijun-Sen and Mid Bollinger Band) and former downtrend line resistance which became the new support Interesting to note that the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement is @ 1.6140 % which roughly coincides with the apex of the triangle pattern ! A breakout of 1.66 would put the focus on the weekly clouds support zone & 78.6 % Fib ret extension @ 1.4920 % On the upside, the triangle technical target remains @ 2.33 % and is still alive. RSI above 50, @ 65.33 LAGGING LINE far above the clouds and KS and TS DAILY (D1) Currently still above the daily Kijun-Sen @ 1.8850 Next support on a Daily basis are the following : S1 : 1.7850 % S2 : 1.7000 % s3 : 1.6140 % (bottom of the daily clouds support area) RSI above 50, @ 51.07 LAGGING LINE far above the clouds and also above both TS and KS CONCLUSION : Watch and monitor very carefully price action on shorter intraday time frames (H4, H1 and 15 minutes) to get clues which will help you to validate or invalidate the implications of the scenarios above mentioned for longer (D1 and W1 time frames) Have a nice trading week. All the best and take care IRONMAN8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
TVC:US10Y
by Ironman8848
Gold Retraces to the low $1900'sGold rallied tremendously off the Ukraine conflict, hitting yearly highs at the top of the $1900 handle. It looked like we might make a run for $2K, but we topped out at 1977 or so, before a red triangle on the KRI confirmed resistance. After that, we retraced the entire move, spanning $100, where we finally found support at $1876. We were able to find support here, and have since recovered to $1917, where we are currently finding support between $1905 and $1917. It could go either way from here, but after such intense volatility, it is reasonable for the markets to try to find footing and establish value at current levels, between $1905 and $1917. If we retrace further, $1876 is likely to provide support. If we break out again, it is doubtful we will reclaim $1977, but $1925 or $1936 are reasonable targets.
COMEX:GC1!
by quantguy
Safehaven Inflows Benefit GoldGold has steadily rallied benefitting from safehaven inflows from the Ukraine crisis. We appeared to see some trouble with 1895, the last level of the 1800's, but another burst of momentum took us into the 1900 handle. From there, we were even able to make an attempt at higher levels still, but our level at 1917 proved to be a top for now. After that, we retraced back, and are currently meandering around 1900. We are seeing good support from 1895, but watch the vacuum zone below to 1876. If we rally again, 1917 is the level to break before we can achieve higher levels.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by quantguy
Do Rising Interest Rates Really Hurt Stocks?Lots of chatter about rising interest rates and how that will affect stocks. I see no reason to guess. Let's look at the data. The chart shows inflation (orange) US interest rates (blue) and the S&P 500. Correlation between the S&P 500 and interest rates is shown at the bottom. I notice a few things: --Stocks tend to rise slightly more often than they decline while interest rates increase. If you look at the periods where interest rates rose, more often not stocks did too. But this is pretty much a coin flip. --Sometimes interest rates move with stocks, sometimes against (correlation at bottom). --Sometimes stocks fall after the rate increases stop, other times stocks rise. Again a coin flip. This leads to the final conclusion: --Interest rates are a poor indicator for stocks. Trust the price action of the stock index, and don't get bogged down thinking about interest rates as a relevant variable. What am I missing?
SP:SPX
by CoryMitchell-CMT
4