INTC
OPENING: INTC APRIL 16TH 37.5/FEBRUARY 19TH 45 MONIED LCD**Long Call Diagonal
... for a 6.83 debit.
Notes: The smaller account, skip month long call diagonal referenced in my INTC (IRA) Post (See Below). Buying the back month 90, selling the front month monied 75.
Metrics:
Max Profit: .67
Max Loss: 6.83
ROC at Max: 9.8%/70.1% annualized.
Break Even: 44.33
Delta/Theta: 17.45/1.4
OPENING (IRA): INTC FEBRUARY 19TH 42.5 SHORT PUT... for a .70/contract credit.
Notes: As with my BA trade (See Post Below), targeting some options highly liquid single name for premium selling. Here, it's the beaten-down Intel, with the short put lining up nicely below support. 30-day at 44.8%, expiry-specific at 41.6%. I generally like to sell premium in single name at >50% implied, but occasionally settle for less when there's nothing better "at the top of the board," so to speak.
One of my New Year's resolutions is to not be so lazy with these plays, so compared monied covered call setups with delta metrics similar to those of going naked short put, the advantages and/or disadvantages of going with a particular expiry over just defaulting to the monthly, and whether something like a long call vertical or long call diagonal would make any sense here. I used to do these comparison and contrasts much more often, but it takes some additional time, but thought I'd set out the basic process of deciding what setup to go with here, even though I'm probably not going to do that with each and every trade I take.
COVERED CALL VERSUS NAKED SHORT
The February 19th 42.5 covered call would have a max profit of .60 currently with a break even of 41.90; the 45 monied, 1.14, with a break even of 43.84. For contrast, the 42.5 naked has a 41.80 break even, so you get a smidge (.10) more out of going naked versus going with the 42.5 monied. The 45 monied, with a 2.6% ROC at max, has a better return, but a break even that is nearly $2 higher than both the 42.5 monied and the 42.5 short put, so the trade-off there is less room to be wrong and therefore a higher return on capital. Both of these types of plays, however, have high buying power requirements, particularly in a cash secured environment, with the cash secured naked short put costing 41.80 to put on, with its primary advantage being ease of trade of management.
CHOICE OF EXPIRY
The other thing I've tended to be lazy with is choice of expiry. Here, there may be an advantage to "shopping" for the highest implied expiry, which -- in this case -- isn't the February 19th monthly; it's the expiry nearest Intel's earnings announcement, which is the January 22nd weekly with an expiry-specific implied of 47.1%. To get any short put to line up nicely with that support around 44, you're going to have to sell something like the 17 delta 44, which is paying around .52 right now for 23 days' of "work." On an annualized basis, you're probably going to get more bang for your buck out of going with the January 22nd versus going with the February monthly, which is more than twice as long in duration. The January 22nd 44's ROC%-age is 1.12% at max; 17.8% annualized while the February 19th 42.5 is 1.67% ROC at max, 12.0% annualized. Again, however, the trade-off is less room to be wrong versus getting in and out of these plays rather quickly to maximize annualized return on capital.
LONG CALL VERTICAL/LONG CALL DIAGONAL
When working with smaller accounts, long call diagonals have been one of my favorite plays to go with when I can't or don't want to afford a covered call or a naked short put, but want to do something synthetically that mimics a covered call. Given where Intel is at currently, I think it would set up nicely for either a one-off long call vertical or diagonal. Here's a couple plays with similar delta metrics to going with a naked short put with a delta value of between 16 (2 x the expected move) and something more aggressive, like a 30 delta.
The first example is the February 19th 37.5/45 long call vertical with a delta metric of around 20. A 7 1/2 wide, it would cost around 6.55 to put on, with a max profit metric of .95 and a 44.05 break even with a 14.50% ROC at max -- a whopping 103.8% annualized. What's not to like? The primary disadvantage is that one generally doesn't "manage" one-off debit spreads -- they either work fantastically or you take them off for a loss (e.g., 2 x max profit). Naturally, you can go with something far less aggressive than a monied, but one of your goals here should be taking profits relatively quickly, churning in and out of plays to maximize return on capital, rather than sitting out endlessly in an underlying without locking realized gains in on a regular basis.
The second, a diagonal, where you buy a high delta, longer-dated back month call and sell a shorter duration call, working it like a covered call. My general preference is to go at least "skip month" in duration for the back month, so I'd probably buy the April 16th 37.5 (90 delta) and sell the February 19th 74 delta 45, yielding a net delta metric of around 18. As with the static long call vertical, it's a 7.5 wide, but going longer duration with the back month costs a little more. Here, the whole setup costs 6.78 to put on, with max profit being the difference between the width of the diagonal (7.5) and what it cost to put on (6.78) or .72, an ROC%-age of 10.6% at max, 75.9% annualized. The advantage here is that you have opportunities to roll the short call to reduce cost basis further and therefore increase your ROC, but have a timer of sorts when you will have to exit the play, win or lose, at April expiry.
Here, I'm taking the "ease of trade management" route,* but will consider doing more monied short call verticals and/or diagonals going forward, particularly in some of the smaller accounts I'm working.
* -- To be completely honest, I hit click and send and got a fill before doing this post, but may do a separate play in one of the smaller accounts I'm working.
The power of patience I bought intel on a reversal trade at 47.05 in late November. The trade started of well with a big surge in early December only to give up all the gains by December 21. I stuck with the trade though because the broader reversal play back into the range was still intact- price held above the lows of 43. By the beginning of January the gains returned and on the news this morning the stock has now broken out the top end of the range near 60. As long as the stock can hold 55 now that its up here there should be clear skies ahead.
INTC -- iron condor over againI like doing iron condors on Intel all the time and consistently just keep rolling them out. Never a huge risk play with Intel in my opinion with smaller spreads but always adds a little daily theta to my portfolio.
I don't do a lot, really none at all, Elliot wave counts with Intel. Recently, I just draw supply and demand zones and trade the range.
My play: will look to enter an iron condor tomorrow, looking to sell the $57.50 strike call to upside (buy 60) and sell the 47.5 strike put to downside (buy the 45). Simply approach play and not throwing a lot at it. Something to balance out portfolio a bit and grab some daily theta. Earnings are approaching, however, but will still look to enter this play.
INTC looks readyINTC could be setting up for a big move.
The dip below the 50 mark was eaten up fast. Usually INTC is not a fast mover, also closed above the 200 ema today.
Watching for a break and hold of 52.76 to go long.
PT1 54.67
PT2 56.23
PT3 58.70
PT4 gap fill over 61
$intc 2-3 month shorttop of trend short here $intc loss limit 51.93 take profit 44.25
timeframe is long though 2-3 months
INTC - INTEL - NASDAQMy idea it will go up!
Just in case, under the blue line you should stop-loss!
I wish you good profit!
Thanks
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Will Intel go Nokia's way?#INTC is under pressure from AMD, NVIDIA and now Apple and Microsoft.
To start the uptrend #INTC needs to break the resistance line around $52.
If drops below 43,50 there is way down to 36,50 and 27 as seen on multi-year charts.
Would make sense to cautiously buy around 43,50 with stop at 41,50 in hopes for the better for Intel.
INTC - what is happening?Are we seeing return to 28-38 range?
Is it going to test 38 at all?
No idea here, just wondering.
Will be watching.
INTC Potential LongDetails are all on chart. Will be keeping a close eye on this throughout the week.
If everything goes accordingly, I will update my plan of attack.
Happy trading!
Can the run continue?When the model signaled buy late last month I will admit I didn't think it would be one of the better positions but to my surprise it has. We don't trade on narratives or fundamental analysis so we have no explanation for the move but the question is where from here? We would like to see it fill the earnings gap but nothing moves in a straight line. We can expect some chop potentially but as long has it holds $49 it will remain in the portfolio
Ingenuity Trading Model is an algorithm used in- Stock, Forex, Futures, and Crypto markets. The model is a Geometric Markov Model : Focuses on reversal and continuation wave structures
In probability theory, a Markov model is a stochastic model used to predict randomly changing systems. Markov Models are used in all aspects of life from Google search to daily weather forecast. The randomly changing systems we focus on are the equity, futures, and forex markets. The geometric element of the model is the fractal sine wave structure you can find on any chart you look at across any market and across all time dimensions.
Our model focuses on the current sine wave formation (current state)- geometric price formation along with its volume and volatility over a given time period and using that information to predict the future state- future price movement. For questions or more information feel free to contact me in the comment section or via private chat
$INTC Daily MomentumJust thinking about it, what have more people been doing more than ever? Using the computer & internet and with that comes parts nessary for computers to work. Intel chips are found just about everywhere, computers, phones, cars, all sorts of things. So with that in mind more people now than ever are buying new tech in 2020. Its the mark of a decade & I know people want to upgrade or just get the latest and greatest. So with that in mind I have no doubt stocks like
$AMD $INTC $NVDA $MSFT $TTWO $CRSR $SNE will continue to see substantial growth in 2021.
Option ideas
.INTC210115C52.5
.INTC210115C55
.INTC220121C60
INTC longINTC near bottom of range, lower risk, higher reward trade. Entry 45.50 and is negotiable + or - stop firm at 43.00 and sell target at 53.00. RRR 3. Bullish divergence on the RSI on the daily and weekly. Seller exhaustion on the MACD.
Rebound in INTC I think there is a possible rebound towards the MA200 in the short term. A good risk/reward ratio, with target price = 54 and stop loss in case it breaks the big support on 43.
Intel stock price forecast 2020To many investors’ surprise, Intel stock has been beaten up badly in the past months. However, not too many traders will know why Intel stock cannot drop below the $42 price level. Many short-term and intraday day traders will think of potential short scenarios now that the momentum has “turned” against the company.
The momentum has turned against Intel stock? Well, if you think the momentum has turned against is because you are probably looking the smaller timeframes and you are only seen noise and chaos without any apparent direction. Direction trading on stocks is critical, if price action analysis and supply and demand is added as tools in your trading arsenal, you will see things in the stock market that have always been there but you were unaware of.
Although everything looks good for the company, as a dividend growth stock, it wasn’t appealing because of its combination of low dividend yield and relatively low dividend growth rate. That should be taken into account only if you are interested in buying shares of stock that provide a high dividend yield. Intel stock is one of those stocks to own because we like it or not, their processors are in most desktop PCs and Apple Mac.
What is a good price for Intel INTC? The imbalance created back in 2018 has been holding several pullbacks and it seems that Intel stock is about to rally again from that same price level and imbalance.
Find below a supply and demand stock analysis for Intel stock (NASDAQ:INTC). The attached chart is the monthly timeframe. The imbalance at $45.97 has been holding the stock price for a few years. Going short against it is suicidal. Only buying shares of Intel stock is possible. It’s not the clearest scenario, but no shorts at all.
INTEL - sleeping giant!Intel (INTC) Down 15.8% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Rebound?
Zacks Equity Research
Sun, November 22, 2020, 12:30 AM GMT+8
It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Intel (INTC). Shares have lost about 15.8% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.
Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Intel due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.
Buy Signal: 47.06 #stocksIngenuity Trading Model used in- Stock, Forex, Futures, and Crypto markets. For Stops and overall trade management join the club.
The model is a Geometric Markov Model :
In probability theory, a Markov model is a stochastic model used to predict randomly changing systems. Markov Models are used in all aspects of life from Google search to daily weather forecast. The randomly changing systems we focus on are the equity, futures, and forex markets. The geometric element of the model is the fractal wave structure you can find on any chart you look at across any market and across all time dimensions.
Our model focuses on the current wave formation (current state)- geometric price formation along with its volume and volatility over a given time period and using that information to predict the future state- future price movement. For questions or more information feel free to contact me in the comment section or via private chat
