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Most difficult trading environment since 2011I've been trading since 2003. And if you're a position (swing trader , medium term) trader, you'll know there comes a time where the markets flow in a difficult range... There are two types of markets when it comes to strategies. Favourable and Unfavourable. Right now, I don't mean to speak for everyone else, but I believe the markets are in an unfavourable territory for medium term traders. Initially, I was blaming the JSE ALSI 40 (South African) index. I blamed the Load Shedding (cutting of electricity) Incompetency of the government providing sufficient water and services I blamed us being downgraded to grey (which has pushed out Foreign direct investments). I blamed the low liquidity and volume and the blame game kept going on... But then I realised something even more problematic. This horrible market environment has not only been for the JSE ALSI 40... It's been for the ASX (Australia), CAC40 (France), DAX (Germany) and even UK 100 (FTSE 100)... And I'm sure there are a lot more stock markets that have had this tight and ongoing range... So, what market environment are we in at the moment. It's not going up so it's not the Mark-up phase It's not going down so it's not the Mark-down phase We can either call it Accumulation or Distribution, but it's been moving in a sideways range for obver a year. So clearly we are in a larger market environment, which is known as the capitulation stage. The volumes are low worldwide, the prices are erratic and volatile. Many traders and investors are holding tight onto their money and not even dabbling into these markets at the moment. How long will this last? Well in 2011, it lasted two years. And right now, we are not seeing any strong signs of change yet... So what do we do? Well I don't have the holy grail nor some incredible points. But I can share what I'm doing during these timultuous times... 1. I've reduced my risk to 0.5% to 1% per trade (Instead of 2%). 2. I'm always hedging with Longs and Shorts 3. I'm trading other markets (Forex, Indices and intraday trades). 4. The drawdown isn't bad so I haven't halted trading 5. I've come to terms that this is the new normal for the next year or too. Expect disppointment and you'll never be disappointed. You learn a thing from Marvel Movies now and then... What are you doing and can you relate to these difficult trading conditions right now? What are your thoughts on the matter?
JSE:J200Long
by Timonrosso
short #fra40 around 7550 with minimum 200 pts target at 7350i wont say much stuff,but what i will say ,its full fundamental and what happens in the country #cac40 (fra40 outperform many index,if its not all) while in France all gone bad since many weeks Big protest and it is not finish.. next data will surely be down as protest had block few sector the President public opinion had never been so low u can go on twitter every day in the best trend have aty least 2 tag for him and all are bad. so i dunno but many gap still open far down and at anytime i big drama protest can happens too but technically have so much gap to fill
TVC:CAC40Short
by corsicasia
4
✅ Daily Market Analysis - THURSDAY SEPTEMBER 07, 2023Key events: USA - Initial Jobless Claims USA - Crude Oil Inventories On Wednesday, global stock indices experienced a downturn, while the benchmark US Treasury yield surged, and the US dollar reached its highest point in six months. This surge was driven by strong data from the US services sector, indicating that inflationary pressures continue to be a concern. The impact of these developments was notably significant on Wall Street, where shares of tech behemoth Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) took a hit, falling by 3.6%. The Wall Street Journal reported that China had issued a ban on officials working at central government agencies from using iPhones and other foreign-branded devices for official purposes. Apple stock daily chart The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) has reported an increase in its non-manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for August. This uptick suggests that new orders are strengthening, and businesses are experiencing higher input costs. Some investors have taken this data as an indication that interest rates could remain elevated for an extended period. However, the general consensus is that the US Federal Reserve will maintain its current pause on rate hikes during its upcoming meeting later this month. Adding to the discussion, Fed Bank of Boston President Susan Collins has stressed the importance of exercising caution in the central bank's future monetary policy decisions, despite signs of progress in controlling inflation. These developments had repercussions in the stock market, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average experiencing a decline of 198.78 points, equivalent to 0.57%, closing at 34,443.19. Similarly, the S&P 500 saw a loss of 31.35 points, or 0.70%, finishing at 4,465.48, while the Nasdaq Composite dropped by 148.48 points, a 1.06% decrease, to conclude the day at 13,872.47. NASDAQ Index daily chart SPX Index daily chart Today, European stock markets are poised to open with losses, driven by fresh signals of slowing growth in both Europe and China. Moreover, concerns about potential tightening measures by the Federal Reserve are further dampening market sentiment. In Germany, DAX futures have declined by 0.3%, while CAC 40 futures in France have also slipped by 0.3%. Meanwhile, the FTSE 100 futures contract in the UK is down by 0.2%. Earlier economic data revealed a 0.8% month-on-month drop in German industrial production for July, surpassing expectations of a 0.5% decline. This latest data point adds to a string of reports indicating that the largest economy in the eurozone is facing significant challenges and might be at risk of slipping back into recession. DAX index daily chart CAC 40 index daily chart FTSE 100 index daily chart In addition to the European economic concerns, China's trade data for August painted a challenging picture. Exports in China dropped by 8.8% year-on-year, while imports fell by 7.3%. While these figures exceeded expectations, they highlight the continued strain on China's manufacturing sector, emphasizing the urgency for policymakers to focus on stimulating domestic demand to support economic growth. China's economic performance carries significant weight for Europe's largest companies, and its ongoing challenges have a ripple effect on their financial results. Shifting our attention to the Bank of Canada (BoC), the central bank recently made a decision in line with expectations by keeping its policy rates unchanged during its interim meeting. While the BoC did acknowledge a reduction in excess demand, it left the door open for potential future rate hikes. The central bank expressed concerns about the persistent pressure on underlying inflation. In summary, the BoC's communication leaned towards a more hawkish stance, pointing out the absence of recent downward momentum in underlying inflation and emphasizing the risk that elevated inflation could become entrenched. XAU/USD H8 chart On Thursday, gold prices held steady, although they faced some downward pressure due to the strength of the US dollar and Treasury yields. The dollar index reached a fresh six-month high, touching 105.03, and was last seen trading at 104.85, reflecting a 0.1% increase. Meanwhile, the euro experienced slight gains, edging up by 0.03% to reach $1.0723. DXY H8 chart In contrast, oil prices took a different turn, reversing their earlier declines and ending the day with gains. This shift was primarily fueled by trader expectations of forthcoming reductions in US crude oil inventory. Brent crude futures settled at $90.60 per barrel, registering a rise of 56 cents, while US crude futures closed at $87.54, marking an increase of 85 cents. Looking ahead, one of the most significant data releases for today is the euro area wage figures, particularly compensation per employee for the second quarter of 2023. This specific wage measure is closely monitored by the European Central Bank (ECB), and its release holds substantial importance as it serves as the final significant data point before the upcoming ECB monetary policy meeting scheduled for next Thursday.
by FOREXN1
8
✅ Daily Market Analysis - TUESDAY AUGUST 01, 2023Key News: Australia - RBA Interest Rate Decision (Aug) UK - S&P Global/CIPS UK Manufacturing PMI (Jul) USA - ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jul) USA - JOLTs Job Openings (Jun) On Monday, both Wall Street and global stocks displayed minimal changes, indicating relative stability in the markets. However, oil prices recorded some gains, and the US dollar remained mostly steady. Market participants were closely monitoring upcoming corporate earnings, central bank meetings, and an important employment report scheduled for this week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average experienced a slight increase of 0.11%, reaching 35,499.78, while the S&P 500 remained nearly unchanged at 4,582.45. The Nasdaq Composite also saw a modest gain of 0.07%, reaching 14,326.87. The overall market sentiment seemed cautious as investors awaited significant events that could potentially impact the financial landscape. In the coming days, traders will be paying close attention to corporate earnings reports, as they can significantly influence stock prices and market sentiment. Additionally, central bank meetings are scheduled, which can provide insights into monetary policy decisions that may influence currency markets and investor confidence. Moreover, an important employment report is eagerly anticipated by market participants. This data release can have a considerable impact on market dynamics, particularly in the context of the ongoing recovery from the global economic challenges posed by the pandemic. Nasdaq indices daily chart SPX indices daily chart This week, investors are eagerly anticipating earnings reports from several notable companies, including Apple Inc (NASDAQ: AAPL) and Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN), scheduled to release their reports on Thursday. The market will closely monitor these results, as they can have a significant impact on individual stock prices and broader market sentiment. Additionally, earnings reports are also expected from well-known companies like Caterpillar Inc (NYSE: CAT), Starbucks Corp (NASDAQ: SBUX), and Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ: AMD), adding to the week's eventful financial calendar. European Markets Record Positive Session European markets had a positive session, concluding a strong month of gains. The DAX achieved yet another record high, reflecting the market's optimistic outlook. Meanwhile, the CAC 40 rebounded strongly after experiencing a significant two-day sell-off just under a week ago, indicating renewed investor confidence. The overall performance of European markets suggests a favorable market sentiment and hints at the possibility of further growth in the region. As the week progresses, investors will be closely watching earnings reports and market developments for potential market-moving events. The combination of key company results and overall market performance will shape investor sentiment and guide market trends in the near future. CAC40 indices daily chart The FTSE100 index displayed impressive performance, reaching a two-month high, signaling a positive trend in the market. Notably, housebuilders stood out as they experienced a notable rebound in their stock prices. This surge in housebuilders' stocks can be attributed to a decrease in expectations for interest rate hikes, which have subsided from the peak levels observed a few weeks ago. The overall market sentiment appears to be optimistic, with investors gaining confidence in the stability of the market. The positive momentum in the FTSE100 index indicates a favorable outlook for investors and suggests potential growth opportunities in various sectors. As interest rate hike concerns ease, housebuilders, in particular, have benefited, leading to an upswing in their stock prices. FTSE 100 daily chart The positive momentum observed in global markets can be attributed to significant gains in Chinese equity markets. Chinese policymakers have signaled their intention to implement measures aimed at bolstering the economy in the coming weeks. This stance from Chinese authorities has boosted investor confidence and contributed to the overall positive sentiment in global markets. Japanese Yen Weakens as Bank of Japan Takes Unanticipated Measures The Japanese yen experienced weakness today following unexpected moves by the Bank of Japan. The central bank intervened by purchasing bonds in an effort to lower yields after the 10-year Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yield surged above 0.6%, surpassing the bank's upper target of 0.5%. As a result of this intervention, the yen slid to a three-week low against the US dollar. The Bank of Japan's decision to take action to control bond yields reflects its commitment to maintaining stability in the financial markets. However, the unanticipated move had an impact on the yen's value, leading to a decline against the US dollar. USD/JPY daily chart The Australian dollar experienced a significant increase, driven by short covering ahead of tomorrow's Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) rate meeting. Traders speculated that the central bank might raise rates by another 25 basis points. Initially, the consensus was for the RBA to maintain rates unchanged, but weaker-than-expected Q2 CPI figures from last week suggested that the necessary adjustments had already been made. Although there was a slight decline from 5.5% to 5.4% in annual inflation, which is still relatively high, the unemployment rate at 3.5% could entice the RBA to raise rates from 4.1% to 4.35%. However, with Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) readings indicating contraction, there is a risk that such a move could be precarious. The surge in the Australian dollar reflects market expectations and speculation surrounding the RBA's rate decision. Investors are closely watching the central bank's actions and statements for further insights into its monetary policy stance. As economic indicators continue to influence the RBA's decision-making, traders will be cautious about the potential implications of a rate hike in the context of ongoing challenges in certain sectors of the Australian economy. AUD/USD daily chart As Thursday approaches, all eyes are on the British pound, with the Bank of England's rate decision scheduled for that day. The financial markets widely anticipate another rate hike, with the only uncertainty being the magnitude of the increase, whether it will be 25 basis points (bps) or 50 bps. Today's mortgage approvals data for June provided some insights into the state of the housing market. The data suggested robust demand, but there are indications that this could be primarily attributed to strong interest in fixed rate rollovers. The net lending figure showed only a modest increase of £0.1 billion. The upcoming rate decision will be closely monitored by investors, as it can have a significant impact on the British pound and financial markets. Depending on the magnitude of the rate hike, market participants will assess the Bank of England's stance on inflation and economic growth, which will shape the outlook for interest rates going forward. The Bank of England's policy decisions are of utmost importance in the current economic landscape, as central banks worldwide grapple with managing inflationary pressures and navigating the post-pandemic recovery. XAU/USD daily chart Gold prices are showing signs of a potential reversal from their losses experienced in June, but they have yet to breach the crucial resistance level of $2,000 per ounce. The depreciation of the US dollar has played a significant role in supporting gold prices, helping them recover from their lows. Despite firmer long-term yields, there is a growing acceptance in the markets that US interest rates are likely to remain elevated for an extended period. This perception is buoying gold prices, as investors seek a hedge against the potential impact of sustained higher interest rates on other asset classes. Investors are closely monitoring the developments in the global economy, inflation, and central bank policies to gauge the outlook for gold prices. Geopolitical uncertainties and ongoing pandemic-related challenges also contribute to the demand for safe-haven assets like gold. As gold prices attempt to stage a comeback, investors are keenly observing any break above the critical $2,000 resistance level, which could signal further upside potential. The future trajectory of gold will be influenced by a complex interplay of factors, including the US dollar's performance, interest rate expectations, and global economic conditions.
by FOREXN1
13
CAC40 to break above Falling Wedge?Falling Flag (Wedge) has formed on CAC40 since April 2023. We have had the price come down each time but make a higher low and fail to break below 7,056. It might be premature but, it looks like the momentum is pointing up (along with many other alternative indices). I'll be happy to go long when the price breaks above. But now it's a waiting game. 7>21>200 RSI>50 Target 1 will be at 7,857 ABOUT THE INDEX Name: The CAC 40 is an abbreviation of "Cotation Assistée en Continu", which translates to "continuous assisted trading", and the number 40 refers to the number of companies represented in the index. Establishment: The CAC 40 was established on 31 December 1987, with a base value of 1,000 points. Representative of French Market: The CAC 40 is the benchmark stock market index in France, which reflects the performance of the 40 largest publicly traded companies listed on the Euronext Paris. Diverse Sectors: The index includes a diverse range of sectors, such as manufacturing, banking, pharmaceuticals, media, utilities, luxury goods, etc.
INDEX:CAC40Long
by Timonrosso
CAC40 to breakdown?FRA40 - Intraday - We look to Sell a break of 7509 (stop at 7561) Previous support located at 7500. Previous resistance located at 7570. Price action looks to be forming a top. Short term momentum is bearish. A move through 7500 will confirm the bearish momentum. Our profit targets will be 7385 and 7365 Resistance: 7570 / 7600 / 7650 Support: 7500 / 7350 / 7300 Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
VANTAGE:FRA40Short
by VantageMarkets
1
CAC to breakdown?FRA40 - 24h expiry - Doji-style candle has been posted at the high. Previous support is located at 7475. Previous resistance is located at 7525. Price action looks to be forming a top. Short-term momentum is bearish. A move through 7475 will confirm the bearish momentum. We look to Sell a break of 7479 (stop at 7545) Our profit targets will be 7325 and 7300 Resistance: 7525 / 7550 / 7600 Support: 7475 / 7400 / 7300 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
OANDA:FR40EURShort
by OANDA
CAC 40 Futures ( FCE1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish continuationTitle: CAC 40 Futures ( FCE1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish continuation Type: Bullish continuation Resistance: 7381.5 Pivot: 6397.5 Support: 6797.5 Preferred case: Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for FCE1! is bullish due to the current price crossing above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bullish market. If this bullish momentum continues, expect price to continue heading towards the resistance at 7381.5, where the previous swing high is. Alternative scenario: Price may head back down to retest the support at 6797.5, where the 38.2% Fibonacci line is. Fundamentals: There are no major news.
EURONEXT:FCE1!Long
by Genesiv
CAC 40 Futures ( FCE1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish continuationTitle: CAC 40 Futures ( FCE1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish continuation Type: Bullish continuation Resistance: 7381.5 Pivot: 6397.5 Support: 6797.5 Preferred case: Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for FCE1! is bullish due to the current price crossing above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bullish market. If this bullish momentum continues, expect price to continue heading towards the resistance at 7381.5, where the previous swing high is. Alternative scenario: Price may head back down to retest the support at 6797.5, where the 50% Fibonacci line is. Fundamentals: There are no major news.
EURONEXT:FCE1!Long
by Genesiv
CAC 40 Futures ( FCE1! ), D1 Potential for Bullish continuationTitle: CAC 40 Futures ( FCE1! ), D1 Potential for Bullish continuation Type: Bullish continuation Resistance: 7381.5 Pivot: 6397.5 Support: 6797.5 Preferred case: Looking at the D1 chart, my overall bias for FCE1! is bullish due to the current price crossing above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bullish market. If this bullish momentum continues, expect price to continue heading towards the resistance at 7381.5, where the previous swing high is. Alternative scenario: Price may head back down to retest the support at 6797.5, where the 50% Fibonacci line is. Fundamentals: There are no major news.
EURONEXT:FCE1!Long
by Genesiv