EWQ: France ETF long term time at mode analysisWe have downtrends in all timeframes except the daily in the France ETF. Currently price is about to break below the yearly downtrend mode, which if it happens could start a big slide down. The daily suggests a short is optimal here, risking a rally to pre-Brexit highs at 24.70, targets can be initially the monthly one at 19.22, but eventually this could evolve into a drop into single digits if the yearly downtrend signal takes over. Target is precisely 8.77, and is well within the confines of possibility, but not yet confirmed.
The monthly setup is already valid, so, feel free to go short.
Send me a private message if interested in the CAC40 CFD setup.
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Ivan Labrie
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Risk disclaimer: My analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
Indices Europe
CAC 40 + European Indices Forecast 2016-2018: False BreakoutHello folks ! This is my first post on tradingview.com. This is an abstract from one of my blogs: www.lucky-index-trading.blogspot.com
Enjoy :)
I have reconfirmed a short-selling target of the CAC 40 at about 4600. Stop-loss orders could be set above 4700.
First bearish target: ~3450-3500
Second bearish target: ~3050
Please find below a graph (weekly) with some comment's I've made.
It is very important to see how other markets are reacting and to spot any correlation or absence of correlation in order to strengthen/weaken confirmation(s).
$CAC40 Under Geo's Bearish Pressure | #fibonacci #euro $EUR $GBPFriends,
Following is a composite technical analytic view of $CAC40, in which all aspects of technical tools are displayed as shown in the following chart - We will dissect each of there thereafter:
Looking in detail at each of the following components, let's consider the following items:
1 - PREDICTIVE/FORECASTING MODEL:
As a foreground, stand-alone proprietary element, the "Model" is defining the following BEARISH targets:
1 - TG-Lo = 3759.18 - 12 AUG 2015
and
2 - TG-Lox = 3384.19 - 12 AUG 2015
GEO'S OFF-SET RULE:
The Geo relies on adverse excursions to establish high-probability targets, such that the following expresses the "Geos' Off-Set Rule":
1 - Price retracing from Point-5 aims for validation along the 1-4 Line (Wolfe Wave rule);
2 - Price retracing from Point-5' (most common occurrence) aims for price level corresponding to Point-4;
and
3 - Price retracing from Point-5'' (least common occurrence) aims for a price level corresponding to Point-3.
In the case of the current chart, price retraces from Point-5', thus aiming for a HIGH-PROBABILITY target corresponding to Point-4, which in terms of the Predictive/Forecasting Model corresponds to:
- TG-Lo = 3759.18 - 12 AUG 2015
In the most immediate support, consider the following cluster:
1 - 1.618-FE = 4180.54
and
2 - Nodal Core = 4193.88 ("ND")
and
3 - Point-1 of Geo, offering a structural point of repose as price retraces from Point-2 and Point-5'.
Where 1.618-FE = ND
As shown in the dashed arrow in the chart, this structural level is likely to see a slight retracement capped at the support-turned-resistance of 4601.90.
STRUCTURAL ANALYSIS:
Levels 1, 2 and 3 on the left side of the price field represent structural levels, such that:
1 - Number-1 represents that level of Geo's Point-1, offering the most immediate structural support from retracement of swing between Geo's Point-2 and Point-5'.
2 - Number-2 Offers a temporizing support which defined a channel capped above by #1 as defined above and #3, which offered the first and subsequent R/S levels as shown - This levels happens to line up with Model's TG-Lo = 3759.18 - 12 AUG 2015 level.
3 - Number, as explained above, also happens to line up with Model's TG-Lox = 3384.19 - 12 AUG 2015 level.
OVERALL:
Bears are taking over. Invalidation would occur if and once price rallied above Point-5', or 5283.71. Still, the Model remains the dominant indicator at this point, tilting the balance in favor of bears with targets defined above and further supported by technicals as mentioned above as well.
Best,
David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Durango, Colorado - USA
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Twitter:
@4xForecaster
LinkedIn:
David Alcindor
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$EUSTX50 at an important confluece point!Here are two possible scenarios:
If the price "respect" the trendline and the support it's a BUY.
If it breaks the trendline it's a Sell.
Either way we have a nice Risk/Reward ratio!
You can follow other indexes (such as DAX and S&P 500) as they are with a strong correlation this days.
Please leave your thoughts on the comments!
CAC40: Blueprints 9.After a beautiful diamond, which has triggered a bearish market for about two weeks, the French index bounced back ahead of the FOMC meeting's disclosure, where a liftoff is probably going to occur. From a historic point of view a hike in interest rates have always led to a correction. Nonetheless, the market was in a bearish movement that was close to sending it back to August's low.
Another thing can make things worse for the bulls: another bearish market on Oil, which has reached a multi year low, three sessions ago, would worsen the situation, the French benchmark being sensitive to Oil prices, since Oil & related companies represent 10% of the benchmark's weight, through Total S.A.( CHXEUR:FPP ) and Technip S.A.( CHXEUR:TECP ). Another slide in the Oil market will inflict more damage to the French benchmark, should a bearish market be the result of today's FOMC.
Oil and the benchmark are closely related. As a fall in Oil prices can render any bearish market worse for the benchmark, as well as an increase in Oil prices can help sustain any bullish movement.
Re-entering the bearish market, as a result of the FOMC meeting, will send the French benchmark south, seeking 4387.72, with 4501.44 as a primary objective.
A breakout of 4673.96, will send it seeking 4783.38, with 4727.63 as a primary objective.
The daily Pivot Point is around 4587.04. The daily support levels are around 4547.32 and 4480.2. The daily resistance levels are around 4654.12 and 4693.84.
FPP & CAC40
TECP & CAC40
CAC40: Blueprints 8.The CAC40 halted its fall after Last Friday's NFP report. The French benchmark flirted with 4673.98 level, before bouncing back and closing in a neutral doji. A breakout of 4740.47 will send the CAC40 back towards 4783.38.
Any bearish movement, resulting from yesterday's election in France, would send the benchmark seeking 4673.98, again, which breaking out will send it seeking lower lows.
The daily Pivot Point 4708.75. The daily support levels are around 4677.03 and 4639.27. The daily resistance levels are around 4746.51 and 4778.23.
CAC40: Blueprints 8. The CAC40 halted its fall after Last Friday's NFP report. The French benchmark flirted with 4673.98 level, before bouncing back and closing in a neutral doji. A breakout of 4740.47 will send the CAC40 back towards 4783.38.
Any bearish movement, resulting from yesterday's election in France, would send the benchmark seeking 4673.98, again, which breaking out will send it seeking lower lows.
The daily Pivot Point 4708.75. The daily support levels are around 4677.03 and 4639.27. The daily resistance levels are around 4746.51 and 4778.23.