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Indices Europe

World Stock MarketA Trump victory meant a rally for the global dow of 76.5 points(+3.2%) 4 days before the elections for the next 21 days. By end of the year, it might reach the yearly high, close to 2490. Maybe next year we'll see 2500 and above it. Global Dow is an index with top 150 companies around the world. More on wikipedia: en.wikipedia.org More upside for DOWG if it stays above 2500. If by the end of 2015, the index goes below 2389, it's a start of a downtrend for the global stock market . It is expected for the Dow to stay at current levels or go for more upside. The first months of the next year will decide the future of the stock market for a good period of time. Trade idea is on the chart. Chart of DOWG since 2015:
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by justaname
CAC40 : The rounding tops show a bearish momentumThe CAC40 is consolidating between 4300 and 4520 pts since the middle of July. The US indices are currently showing weaknesses, and so does the french equity market. The resistance area at 4550, doubled with the other one at 4520, definitely constitute a barrage for the buyers to go higher. The bearish forces are getting a bit stronger as weeks pass, as shown by the rounding tops. The long term moving average (200 days) remains decreasing, which highlights the downside underlying trend. The first steam to break is the ascending trendline (blue). The current price at the CAC40 is high enough to initiate a short position : - Short @ 4460 - Target @ 4315 - Stop @ 4520 (just above the first resistance)
TVC:CAC40Short
by AlexandreNygal
DAX: Short at 11077-11100September 1, 2016 That's a possible scenario :) Bearish Gartley Pattern confirmed with the CAC 40 (France). It's consistent with the target of the Dow Jones at 18850 and of the Nikkei at 17500. The CAC 40 will plummet after it gets to 4700. See my other posts for more info about the CAC. This is why the DAX is weaker than the CAC 40 and that US markets are also overall more resilient to grind up compared to the French index. Their targets are lower than those of the latter one.
INDEX:DEU40Short
by UnknownUnicorn569872
CAC 40 and the world: the End soon after the short at 4700August 31, 2016 Everything is on the chart. It is very precise and you may doubt that it's feasible I know. The lines are not random, they correspond to very specific levels (4700 -> 4450 -> 4500 -> 4280/4310 -> 4450 -> 4084 -> 4300 -> 4090 -> 4180 -> 4084 -> 3709 -> 3904 -> 3556 -> 3477 -> dead cat bounce -> 3050/3100 I would go long now until 4700. Some bad resistance will have to be taken away at 4600 and 4666. It will drop from 4084 to 4709 in a single week. Probably in summer 2017 (August here). The ultimate target is around 3050-3100. Then I would go bullish until 4450 (May June 2019) then reshort a bit. We shall see !
INDEX:CAC40Short
by UnknownUnicorn569872
CAC 40: We have all the long term targets below the short @4700August 28, 2016 (Post Yellen's speech) Everything is on the chart. You know that I am willing to short strongly at 4700. Resistance shall be met at 4600 and 4666. Those would become other very good scalping opportunities for the experienced ones. Don't forget the Bearish Gartley Pattern and the long term Head and Shoulders pattern (not traced on the picture, cf previous posts). It should fall quickly to a strong area at 4450. It could bounce to 4500, another psychological level. But then they would shorting until 4383, resistance will be futile although it's an important level. The CAC 40 shall quickly further its downtrend until 4280-4310. It another crucial level to hold, but it will ultimately become a dead cat bounce. It should become erratic between 4000 and 4300. But hey, after it goes through 4000-4004, there would be a huge drop of 300 points in a single week. It would go up again because of short covering, and then fall to 3556 and 3477. Speculators and some funds would find it an interesting opportunity to buy, since they would believe it's low enough. But some final strings of predictable "bad news" would sign the final blow to the markets. It would collapse sharply until 3050-3104. People would freak out and more stop-loss orders could be triggered. It would go even a bit lower (it's the "visible" crisis, what do you want?)
INDEX:CAC40Short
by UnknownUnicorn569872
8) Long the CAC with a stop-loss order below 4390 then shortAs mentioned before, there is a massive convergence at 4666 (scenario 2). 4600 could be shorted too, but be ready to suffer some losses if the CAC 40 goes to 4666 thereafter. My bet would be that the CAC could run down either today or tomorrow to as low as about 4400. Long @4423 seems to provide a good risk-reward ratio. The afternoon session could become a good scalper's day. I would be very surprised if the CAC 40 goes much lower than 4400
INDEX:CAC40Long
by UnknownUnicorn569872
1
6) The Japanese market will help timing the collapse (US+EU)August 15, 2016 Hello folks ! So almost everything is written on the chart. Don't take it for granted, as I do not possess a crystal ball. However, one thing is clear: prices that are displayed vary across brokers' platform(s) for a battery of reasons (Futures, Market Makers, Bid/Ask spread or average price etc.) There is one thing to take back home though: 50% and mean reversion has always been one of the keys. The signal is clear here: 17500 is the target and short should be triggered. It also acted as a strong resistance many many years ago :)
INDEX:NKYShort
by UnknownUnicorn569872
1
4) Repeat: The European Central Bank created artificial pricesAugust 14, 2016 This is the text from my comments on the charts: January 2015: These levels above 4530-4600 are totally artificial .It was an aberration created by the European Central Bank (Quantitative Easing), which helped the CAC40 hits its long term diagonal resistance before it would collapse. Greece and China were merely excuses. Greek CDS (Credit Default Swaps) clearly showed that Greece had a bond default probability of about 85% in January 2015. Well done ! Can you see that by the end of 2015, the price of the CAC40 went back to its last value of about 4550? It was a lost year. And yes you are not seeing it wrong: that is the infamous Head & Shoulder pattern, as I mentioned many times here and elsewhere. European + US indices will certainly start plummeting in a month or two in my high opinion. The blue lines being shown merely depict one possible path and cannot be taken for granted. You guys can perform an Elliott Waves analysis and see. I do not currently possess enough knowledge/information nor the right skills to tell whether this would work or not. We shall see how it plays out !
INDEX:CAC40Short
by UnknownUnicorn569872
3
So everything is rigged (US: Triple new high records since 1999)Hello folks, so as I mentioned earlier in my previous posts. The CAC40 would go higher (so would European indices, but the German DAX wasn't as eager as the French index to do so). The 4300-4450 range worked perfectly, and we went even higher (4500). However . Thursday's (August 11, 2016) US markets was clearly "algorithmically" driven. I think that scalpers and day trader could see how the prices moved *again* in some "strange" fashion. And out of the blue, the US markets were on cloud nine and made a triple all time records that day, altogether (see 1999 and what ensued). The CAC40 and other indices followed suit. Which means that the 4450 level was certainly pierced thanks to lower volume (I don't even need to check any indicator, but my guess could be wrong: are you people confirming or infirming it?) and more importantly, to super mega algorithmic trading. Yes, you probably got my point: The extra 50 points above 4450 was according to me noise inside the noise . Hence the erratic moves and consolidation from Friday. Which means that this mini breakout was probably fake. I would have a short bias/opinion during the first on two days of next week (August 15-21, 2016), until we get to 4445-4460. I would personally go long only after we get at least there, or if we clearly break through 4510-4530 for a couple of days if this scenario doesn't work. But there could be some tricky moves slightly above 4500 this coming Monday before we go back to 4445-4460. Pay attention to that. The risk reward is higher by doing swing trading and shorting. I would short with my eyes *closed* at 4600. 4666 (pivot) could be some "noise target" , but long positions would ultimately fail, hence a stop-loss at 4700. Of course, I do not possess a crystal ball, but there is rationality in apparent irrationality, and the game is about to decipher those moves without becoming slaughtered by the big guns and "smart traders". Go catch those high-probability trades. We are soon getting there. Notice: There's a gap at 4360 (CAC40) and a small gap at 18610 and around 18500 for the DowJones. Tricky isn't it? Which infers to me that shorting provides a higher risk-reward ratio.
INDEX:CAC40Short
by UnknownUnicorn569872
2
How to know when stuff are rigged ? NFP, indices, gold price ...August 8, 2016 This is an abstract from my one of my blogs: www.lucky-index-trading.blogspot.com Compare this chart with my previous publication and comments So, from my experience, this is how it worked (and obviously I am merely stating a little portion of the big picture, but so far this "luckily" was enough to help predicting some moves based on correlation). Last Friday's US Non-farm Payroll (NFP - August 5, 2016) was apparently rigged according to some sources. Well, we did not really need to know how the fundamental worked to know the blue print would be "good" and thereby certainly pushing prices up, as the odds for indices to head upward was higher than otherwise. Let me explain. Do you remember the previous article I posted on July 31st, 2016? Yes, the one with the forecast of the CAC. So I was saying that a false breakout from the 4300-4450 range could occur (target: 4600). The CAC 40 did exactly range last week (August 1-5), going from about 4480 to as low as 4293 and now it is back to 4440 at the time I am writing this post. The trading range was perfectly supported by price action, supports / resistances, and so on. But moreover, if was also confirmed by the NFP's result, "fundamentally" pushing up on the CAC and making it soar from 4360 to 4410, therefore confirming the 4300-4450 range as previously stated in article 174 of the blog). Now, the SP500 made a new all-time record, and the Dow Jones soared along with the NASDAQ. What I mean is that it was totally predictable, because no matter what European indices had to go up, technically speaking. So in order to push the markets higher, data had to be manipulated.On the other hand, I made a forecast 2 years ago on Gold (XAUUSD), stating it would go as low as 1080 and then going back to 1367 (see article 118 + related charts). Since gold price reached 1370, it had to pullback (ie. go down). Given that it is for the time being negatively correlated with stock market indices, then if the Dow Jones is up, gold price will decrease. And this is exactly what we wanted since the target of roughly 1350-1367 was reached ! Therefore, from solely using gold price forecast and European price forecast, we could infer that the NFP result would be good, and send American indices to the sky. This is in my sense manipulation, and the bubble will probably burst next year. My take is that indices will globally shift downward in 1 or 2 months. CAC 40, Daily chart (see post from July 31st -> 2016-2018 forecast) -> It exactly did start to range from 4300 to 4450 !
INDEX:CAC40Short
by UnknownUnicorn569872
3