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S&P500 = PRICING IN THE MONEY SUPPLYIn today's chart, we look at the S&P500 divided by the WM2NS (money supply). The upward trend of the S&P500 has been unstoppable since 2009 and has climbed to new heights since 2013. > However, as soon as you divide the chart with the "MONEY QUANTITY", the unadulterated chart = the reluctant truth is revealed. = Regardless of the rising price of the index, it has not changed in real value / hardly noticeable. = The "stock rally" was accordingly only the pricing in of the rising money supply. We have been in a sideways channel for about 30 years: = this was broken by the "DOT COM BUBBLE" and the "FINANCIAL CRISIS". = in the chart, you can clearly see that the channel serves as support and resistance. Currently, we are on the way to the bottom of the channel = another 18% - Downside. > at this bottom, there is a high probability that we will run again to the other side of the range = 64 % - upside. Looking at the 18% - downside in the S&P500, we would end up at around 3,000 points. > The 3,000 mark not only goes over one with Fibonacci and POI levels, but also represents a strong DEMAND zone on the monthly chart. > Based on this, we can expect a reaction in this area on a further down-sale. Looking at the range, a scenario of further down-sale is more than likely and goes along with the opinion of many. If this idea and explanation has added value to you, I would greatly appreciate a review of the idea. Thank you and a successful trading!
SP:SPXShort
by ZielIstDieAutarkie
4
Commodities Are Waking Up From The SupportCommodities are waking up from the support with the help of China stocks and there's room for more upside. Bloomberg commodity index with ticker AW made a nice three-wave (A)-(B)-(C) correction with the wedge pattern into wave (C). Unless it has alternatively unfolded a leading diagonal from the highs. Anyway, in both cases we can expect a recovery, at least for a temporary period of time. Currently we can see it nicely breaking out of projected wedge pattern, which indicates for a bigger recovery, at least back to the starting point of the that wedge pattern near 120 area, or maybe even higher if correction is completed.
CBOT:AW1!Long
by ew-forecast
Unleash the Bull: DAX Breaks Boundaries!Bullish/Bearish Momentum: The Macro PVVM, which indicates long-term trend, has been consistently increasing from 68 to 102. This is a strong sign of a bullish momentum in the long term. The indicator breached the overbought level (>100) on the last data point suggesting a strong bullish trend but also the potential risk of a pullback. The Micro PVVM, representing short-term movement, has also shown a general increase from 12 to 41 with some periods of pullback, which indicates a predominantly bullish momentum in the short term. Alignment with Closing Prices: The closing prices have generally been increasing, aligning well with the bullish momentum indicated by the PVVM indicators. The price moved from $16147 to $16189 with some fluctuations. Long-term and Short-term Trends: Long-term (Macro) Trend : The continuous increase in the Macro PVVM suggests a long-term bullish trend. Short-term (Micro) Trend : The short-term trend, represented by the Micro PVVM, has also been predominantly bullish, but the ups and downs suggest a higher level of volatility and uncertainty in the short-term trend. Key Takeaways: The OANDA:DE30EUR is in a strong bullish trend based on the provided dataset, with both Macro and Micro PVVM showing an increasing trend. The Macro PVVM has breached the overbought level, indicating a strong bullish market but also warning of potential short-term pullbacks. The short-term movement shows volatility, which means traders should be cautious. Proposed Trade Strategy: Long Position : As the overall trend is bullish, traders can consider entering long positions. However, they need to watch out for potential pullbacks due to the overbought condition. Short Position : Given the overbought state of the market, traders could consider short positions if there are clear signs of bearish reversal in the Micro PVVM or a decrease in the Macro PVVM. Price Prediction: Given the current trend, the TVC:DEU40 could continue to increase in the next 7 bars. However, as the Macro PVVM has entered the overbought territory, a short-term pullback or consolidation could also occur. Critical Points to Watch: Continuation of the bullish trend in the Macro PVVM. Signs of a reversal in the Micro PVVM, given the overbought condition in Macro PVVM. Price movements and their correlation with PVVM indicators. Watch out for any divergence between price and PVVM indicators, as it may suggest potential trend reversals. Remember, while the PVVM indicators provide valuable insight into the market's direction, they are not infallible and should be used in conjunction with other technical analysis tools and fundamentals for the most reliable results.
OANDA:DE30EURLong
by SwingSwiss
NDX (Nasdaq 100) Index Analysis 05/01/2021Fundamental Analysis: As we can see the Index has shown a very strong come back after the Covid-19 pandemic of March 2021 which caused the market to fall and create a panic to the world. Since then there are lots of changes to the world and the way companies are operating, such as releasing of their premises and offices as they should have discharge lots of their employees and the work from home schemes was the main reason to cut the expenditure of these companies drastically down. From the other hand, the market administration and governments including Banks has injected lots of funds and so called Rescue Packages and the market stimulant's packages to protect the Market from its Hard and Drastically fall to the lower levels and prevent a gigantic Global Markets Crises. These funding and injection of the cash to these companies along side of cost and expenditure reduction due to their risk measurement policies, forced these companies to invest the receiving funds in to the companies assets to protect themselves from the Pandemic Crises and hedged their exposed risks instead of investing these funds to the new Projects or renovations which could Couse their Share prices to appreciate intrinsically but instead these investments in the assets made an inflation to the prices of the assets and created a bobble in their share value and Prices without having any inheritance or intrinsic values. so we can easily have a decision derived from the current situation that there has to be an other market fall and crises soon so the Price and its relevant intrinsic values get converged and market comes to its correct values. we can observe the same situation in many different centralized markets such as US500 and even other Stock Exchanges around the world like London and rest European market places to be in the same inflated status. there exist a huge chance of an other Global Market Crises coming soon which has the domino effect and Couse the entire markets to fall for some times . This fall of the market shall remove off the liquidity from the equity and debt market and streamflow them to some green heaven Asset classes including Gold and silver or even newly invented Technologies such as decentralized markets and Cryptocurrencies and DeFi. if we have a look at the Current crypto's Total Crypto Market Capitalization we can see it has a very good chances of Rally Continuation to some very high levels such as 5 to 6 Trillion dollars or even much higher. Total Market Cap of All Cryptocurrencies: Gold even can see higher Prices such as 2500 USD per ounce which is currently ranging at 1800 USD. we even can some how speculate a 3 world War to be the initiator of this Market fall which is even not so far from the reality as the situation in middle east is not very stable due to the Iran and Israel disputes and new anti-covid's restriction social movements in Europe and America continent. we can see the same situation in US500: DJI: we shall analyze few other markets and indices and ultimately Propose some Assets which are at their low Points Currently and can be counted as under values at present times. Technical Analysis: we have used the Fibonacci trend base extension from the low to the Highest point even before the Covid pandemic to have a better vision of the Higher expansion levels for the post retracement's rallies and identify the Potential Price levels and resistance zones. where the market can show some stagnation and starts its retracement and price correction to the lower levels. the Fibonacci trend base extension clearly shows that the price has touched the 261.8% which is a very critical point for the price to find its intrinsic values and correct its self by retracing to the lower levels which can be the parallels leg areas of the same Fibonacci extension levels, before its rally to the higher targets. There exist a Bearish Divergence of Price and MACD where Price has made higher high levels but MACD made lower Highs which is the most significant and strong Bullish Trend Reversal and start of Market fall and Price retracement and Value corrections. there are total of 2 Targets defined which have a very strong Support tendencies which can be interpreted as the maximum retracements points. there are few support level are also defined to have a better vision of the bullish trend reversal to bearish retracements which eventually can be counted as the bearish Trend reversal points and new cycle initialization.
NASDAQ:NDXShort
by BitonGroup
4
DJI (Dow Jones Industrial Average) Index Analysis 05/01/2022Fundamental Analysis: As we can see the Index has shown a very strong come back after the Covid-19 pandemic of March 2021 which caused the market to fall and create a panic to the world. Since then there are lots of changes to the world and the way companies are operating, such as releasing of their premises and offices as they should have discharge lots of their employees and the work from home schemes was the main reason to cut the expenditure of these companies drastically down. From the other hand, the market administration and governments including Banks has injected lots of funds and so called Rescue Packages and the market stimulant's packages to protect the Market from its Hard and Drastically fall to the lower levels and prevent a gigantic Global Markets Crises. These funds and injection of the cash to these companies along side of cost deduction due to their risk measurement policies, forced these companies to invest the receiving funds in to the companies assets to protect themselves from the Pandemic Crises and hedged their exposed risks instead of investing these funds to the new Projects or renovations which could Couse their Share prices to appreciate intrinsically but instead these investments in the assets made an inflation to the prices of the assets and created a bobble in their share value and Prices without having any inheritance or intrinsic values. so we can easily have a decision derived from the current situation that there has to be an other market fall and crises soon so the Price and its relevant intrinsic values get converged and market comes to its correct values. we can observe the same situation in many different centralized markets such as US500 and even other Stock Exchanges around the world like London and rest European market places to be in the same inflated status. there exist a huge chance of an other Global Market Crises coming soon which has the domino effect and Couse the entire markets to fall for some times . This fall of the market shall remove off the liquidity from the equity and debt market and streamflow them to some green heaven Asset classes including Gold and silver or even newly invented Technologies such as decentralized markets and Cryptocurrencies and DeFi. if we have a look at the Current crypto's Total Crypto Market Capitalization we can see it has a very good chances of Rally Continuation to some very high levels such as 5 to 6 Trillion dollars or even much higher. Gold even can see higher Prices such as 2500 USD per ounce which is currently ranging at 1800 USD. we even can some how speculate a 3 world War to be the initiator of this Market fall which is even not so far from the reality as the situation in middle east is not very stable due to the Iran and Israel disputes and new anti-covid's restriction social movements in Europe and America continent. we can see the same situation in US500 we shall analyze few other markets and indices and ultimately Propose some Assets which are at their low Points Currently and can be counted as under values at present times. Technical Analysis: we have used the Fibonacci retracement and Expansion from the low to the Highest point before the Covid pandemic to have a better vision of the Higher expansion levels for the post retracement's rallies and identify the Potential Price levels and resistance zones. where the market can show some stagnation and starts its retracement and price correction to the lower levels. There exist a Bearish Divergence of Price and MACD where Price has made higher high levels but MACD made lower Highs which is the most significant and strong Bullish Trend Reversal and start of Market fall and Price retracement and Value corrections. there are total of 2 Targets defined which have a very strong Support tendencies which can be interpreted as the maximum retracements points. there are two Resistance level are also defined to have a better vision incase of Current Rally Continuation which eventually can be counted as the Trend reversal points.
UShort
by BitonGroup
4
EXY (Euro Currency) Index Analysis 09/01/2022Our Past Euro Currency Index Analysis of March 2021: Elementary Analysis: The Euro Currency Index (EUR_I) represents the arithmetic ratio of four major currencies against the Euro: US Dollar, British Pound, Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc. All ratios are expressed in units of currency per Euro. The index was launched in 2004 by the exchange portal Stooq.com. Underlying are 100 points on 4 January 1971. Before the introduction of the European single currency on 1 January 1999 an exchange rate of 1 Euro = 1.95583 Deutsche mark was calculated. Based on the progression, Euro Currency Index can show the strength or weakness of the Euro. A rising index indicates an appreciation of the Euro against the currencies in the currency basket, a falling index in contrast, a devaluation. Relationships to commodity indices are recognizable. A rising Euro Currency Index means a tendency of falling commodity prices. This is especially true for agricultural commodities and the price of oil. Even the prices of precious metals (gold and silver) are correlated with the index. Arithmetically weighted Euro Currency Index is comparable to the trade-weighted Euro Effective exchange rate index of the European Central Bank (ECB). The index of ECB measures much more accurately the value of the Euro, compared to the Euro Currency Index, since the competitiveness of European goods in comparison to other countries and trading partners is included in it. The Euro Currency Index started on 4 January 1971 with 100 points. Before the introduction of the European single currency on 1 January 1999, an exchange rate of 1 Euro = 1.95583 Deutsche Mark was calculated. Fundamental Analysis: On April 19, 1971, the Euro Currency Index gained 99.67 points calculated with an all-time low. Until 3 December 1979, the index rose by 68.0 percent to 167.43 points. With the depreciation of the Deutsche Mark against the major currencies, the index fell to mid-1980s. On 3 May 1985, the Euro Currency Index was at level 122.26 points, up by 27.0 percent. The strength of the Deutsche Mark against almost all global currencies set the index in the following years to rise again. On 5 October 1992, a value of 195.98 points was determined. The increase in 1985 was 60.3 percent. On 25 October 2000, the index closed at 130.83 points, up by 33.2 percent. In 2000 began a multi-year upward movement of the Euro. On 29 December 2008, the index marked 209.65 points, an all-time high. The profit since year 2000 is 60.2 percent. In the course of the international financial crisis, from which the U.S. real estate crisis originated in the summer of 2007, the index began to decline. On 6 February 2009 a value of 187.84 points was determined. In the following eight months, the European single currency rebounded from the lows. On 13 October 2009, the index rose by 208.45 points, near its historical high point. A financial crisis in several member states of the Euro zone in 2010 led to the outbreak of the Euro crisis. Particularly affected is Greece (see Greek government-debt crisis from 2010), but also other countries such as Ireland, Spain, Italy and Portugal. The weakness of the Euro against almost all global currencies caused the index to fall from 29 June 2010 to 175.31 points. In the following months, the European Stability Mechanism was developed, which provides for mutual assistance in case of emergency to avoid the bankruptcy of the Member States. By May 4, 2011, the index rose to a level of 200.20 points. With the intensification of the sovereign debt crisis in the Euro zone, the Euro Currency Index fell 24 July 2012 with 168.38 points, its lowest level since March 29, 2006. Compared to the all-time high of 29 December 2008, this represents a decrease of 19.7 percent . as we have analyzed this Index last year on March 2021, we had Speculated that, the Euro zone will Depreciate and weaken Financially and Economically due to some known (So Called Pandemic) and unknown (censored) reasons such as Brexit etc. however we can see the market has showing some Bearish trend and started its Rally again and it shows the Index has reaccumulated and Corrected itself on a good note. there are some confluences such as the negative correlation of the Euro Index (EXY) with US Dollar Index (DXY) which shows that the DXY was Rising when the EXY was falling in our Past Analysis which are as follow: DXY: EXY: Looking at the Top Charts, we can clearly see that the Charts and their Price Action is negative correlation coefficient with each other, that means while the US Doller was getting Strong the Euro was weakening hence if we look at the current situations in US politics and Markets, which we have analyzed earlier this week along with the DXY. we can see that there are heavy Falls and calamities to come on the US economy which ultimately will result the rise of the counterparty currencies' such as Euro and GBP. For better understanding of the situation it is good to look at the DXY and its Current situation and our analysis on that: from March 2018 to March 2020 the entire Euro Zone countries where struggling and Correcting their economies as the Brexit and Its effects on the rest of the European businesses and Markets were ambiguous, we can call this fact as Market Distribution and Values correction. then we can see the Corona Pandemic which was an other nail in the Europe economic coffin and Brought the entire economic to its low point which had triggered the Risk Management Departments of the governments to Practice their Policies and release the Stimulants Packages in order to Prevent their Economies from more Drastically Falls and crisis. which worked as an excellent Market Fuel and uplift the Strength of their economies temporally but soon they realized the upcoming inflation and they stopped their Stimulant's Plans so does the market and Prices came to their inheritance intrinsic values and once again we could see the Prices has fallen back to their normal Level so does the EXY level. at present we can see the EXY is at its lows but is very ready to Reaccumulating and reneging for the next Bullish cycle. hence we can drive our conclusion that the Euro shall appreciate against the Doller and even some other low weight Index Makers. looking at the current inflation rate in US and China, Iran... we can see that soon these countries and their respected Markets shall come to an Hoult which will help out the EXY to Appreciate ultimately. we do not know exactly how much time will it take for it, but to us it is very clear that, it is the upcoming scenario for the Globalist and their respective European Parties... Technical Analysis: Tt is very well Observable that there exists a Bullish Divergence of Price and MACD from March 2015 to January 2017 which is the most significant sign of the Past Bearish Trend reversal and Start of the new Bullish Trend Post Feb 2017 to March 2018. looking at the chart from March 2020 to January 2022 we can see the price has made a Double Top followed by the Retracement to the 61.8% of Fibonacci Levels of its Bullish wave from 2020 to 2022. There exist a Hidden Bullish divergence of Price and MACD from March 2020 to January 2022, which is a very significant sign of Bullish trend Continuation where the Price is reneging and reaccumulating for its upcoming bullish cycles. There total of 3 Main Targets defined with Fibonacci trend Based Extension of the Last Bullish cycle and 2 Targets Defined with the Previous Bullish cycle. all the defined Targets are having confluences with each other so we can be certain that the Price shall show some Reaction at these points. there are 3 Support areas defined by Fibonacci retracement and Pivot areas of the past Bullish cycles where we can expect the Price to reverse its bearish trend incase of more Fall to the lower levels and creation of dipper Hidden bullish Divergence. as you can see we have used 2 Fibonacci trend base extension tools and Specified their Confluences areas as the Possible Resistance Zones. Remember the 4 TP and the Ultimate TP will gets confirmed as the price Triggers the 3 TP followed by some Market correction and Retracements.
TVC:EXYLong
by BitonGroup
6
TOTAL (Cryptocurrencies Total Market Capitalization) Analysis Fundamental Analysis: The TOTAL or Crypto Total Market Cap is an integrated Complete Cryptocurrencies Market capitalization of all the Crypto coins and tokens and it is demonstrated against USD to show the total market capitalization of the entire crypto environment and it can be used for many speculation and hedging purposes in finance and other related sectors. it can simply interpreted as how much of fiat currencies has been spent or converted to the Crypto assets or how much is the total value of the entire crypto environment is worth presently in Dollars. by looking at this index and comparing it with the entire worlds market capitalizations we can understand how much more fiat currencies are there in the world to gets converted to the Crypto or the other way of looking at it is how much more time it takes to Concore the fiat world by crypto and decentralized open markets. TOTAL Chart includes all the Coins and Tokens i.e BTC,ETH... Technical Analysis: we can see that, the chart is currently at the Reaccumulation zone of Fibonacci Golden zone and it has formed Bullish Divergence with MACD Lines and Histogram, which is the sign of Bearish or Retracement wave end and Trend Change to the Next Bullish Cycle and start of the next Impulsive wave. we have specified the Fibonacci retracement levels which can be used as the significant Pivot Points and Support areas where it can be the best Price or undervalued price to Purchase and Invest on. there total of 3 Targets defined by Fibonacci Projection of the initial impulsive wave followed by its retracement after the Top Distribution. the 3 Target gets confirmed as the price triggers the 2 TP followed by some retracement and price correction.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTALLong
by BitonGroup
TOTAL (Crypto Total Market Cap) Index Analysis 05/01/2022Fundamental Analysis: a very simple way of Fundamentally analyzing this Index is to look for the other markets indices including US and Europeans ones, such as Dow Jones and S&P 500, it is very observable that these Equity Markets are very much inflated and shall Retrace to the lower levels and correct themselves and get converged to their intrinsic values. in other word we can say the liquidity shall get diverted from these markets to some other Asset Class, this means gold and silver as well as Digital Assets which are Cryptocurrencies and their underlying technology such as Blockchain and even their future Projects like DeFi and related Financial and Applied Areas. By looking at the current statues of the Equity Indices and analyzing them we can come to the conclusion that these markets are doomed to fall soon hence a massive transaction of their liquidity to these new Asset class. lets look at some of our analysis on these Indices such as DJI: US 500: it seems very obvious to us that the collapse of these markets shall Couse a huge rise on other alternative markets assuming the minimum retracement or fall of 20% for each market and considering their Market capitalization of 40.7 Trillion for US500 and 10 Trillion Dollars of DJI and of course the market capital of other European markets. the Domino effect of markets fall shall consequences to the other markets fall around the world, we can expect minimum of 4 to 10 Trillion dollars of Liquidity shifts from these markets to the Crypto currencies Industry and ecosystems. these massive amount of liquidity shift shall Couse a huge pomp and rise in the new and even old Projects on various sectors of Crypto world. mean while we may have some more fall of the Total Market Capitalization of cryptos to lower levels due to some existing fear and Rug pool and Scam Projects but these events should not be having any long term effect and can get recovered on a very fast pace. the other factors of the wealth transition to the decentralized finance world can be the totalitarians policies and dids of the different establishments around the world such as China, India, middle east counties, or even the implode of some dictatorships systems Like turkey and Iran which will drive the Public funds to more stable and liquidly asset class such as cryptos. the world banking system too has lots of over leveraged Projects which can be liquidated and Couse a huge market collapse and distrust with their investors the public which will eventually Couse the wealth transition to the decentralized transparent venues such as Blockchain based Cryptocurrencies. Technical Analysis: There exist A Hidden Bullish Divergence of Price with MACD, it occurs on a Bullish trend and it is a very significant Sign of Bullish trend continuation. the Hidden Bullish Divergence is specified with the Green connecting lines. we draw the Fibonacci retracement from the low point of 0 to the ATH where we can see the dips of the Price falls are having perfect confluences with the Retracement Levels of Fibonacci hence we defined our two Targets using the same Fibonacci extension Levels. as the Markets fall chances are still exist, we can use the retracement levels of the Fibonacci to specify the support areas and the market Reaccumulating zones for its new bullish trend initiations.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by BitonGroup
2
✨ NEW: DX1! ✨ INTRADAY ✨BSO @ 100.25 SLO @ 100.00 SSO @ 99.83 TP @ 96.00 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS According to my analysis of the 15-minute time frame for the US Dollar Index Futures from ICEUS, Price Action has been bullish. The price has been trading between the 99.22 and 100.25 levels since yesterday's USD News. The moving averages are all sloping downward, which suggests that the overall trend is bearish. However, the stochastic oscillator is starting to turn up, which could signal a potential reversal. The next key level to watch is the 99.42 level. If the price breaks below this level, it could open the door for a further decline towards the next Major Support Level @ 96.000. However, if the price is able to hold @ 100.00, it could signal a the continuation of a DT. Overall, the market is currently in a state of flux. The overall trend is bearish, but there are some signs that a return to the DT could be in the works.
ICEUS:DX1!
by ProfessorCEWard