1W) Biotech's RollercoasterWill have a serious drop soon.
But it's all the set up for the bullish BAT pattern guys.
IBB
Harmonic Cypher Final Data from Robarts study coming September, in Spain. To learn more about TAEUS, click here .
Company ran by ex-GE executives. TAM is in the Billions of Dollars $$. Low float.
Recently broke long-term down trend. Daily, Weekly, Monthly charts #BULLISH. Fibonacci convergence at 618 fib (projection) into September time frame.
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Disclaimer: I am long NDRA. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell. Please do your homework before investing.
Bearish Butterfly SGEN has beat biotech averages significantly the past few months and has come to meet my $80 pt which also happens to make a bearish harmonic butterfly pattern. This could have a little more upside as it tests $80-81 but risk/reward would suggest a potential double top that can take this down quite a bit in a short amount of time. If I was short I would be looking to start a position.
According to the bearish setup SGEN should find 50 -618 retracement before next ER bringing SGEN down to around the $69 mark. As I have outlined in this setup, SGEN is still making higher lows on long-term chart and after retracing back to $69, should see continue uptrend to ~$84 (assuming another positive ER or catalyst).
Tip - Even if you rely mostly on company fundamentals, you should be aware of support/ resistance levels.
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Disclosure: I do not own a position in SGEN. I may buy/sell within the next 72 hours. This is not a note to buy or sell, please do your homework before investing.
EYPT | Range bound Long-Term pattern suggests that after previous dilution, Eyepoint's stock price went range bound for quite awhile before breaking out.
This marks potential accumulation range for anyone looking to build a position in EYPT.
Ranges make for good swing trade positions (especially 20%+ both ways) and a way to average down.
Range low/ highs, range from $1.42 - $1.87 is approximately $0.45 of profit both ways up (~20%+) until EYPT confirms they are adhering to terms of loan with CRG.
Weekly MACD and Stochastics have divergence with stock price. This could infer spring board type action on good news (break below range could cause problems).
Previous quarter showed that $EYPT was on track w/ meeting terms of CRG loan agreement.
positive earning/ ER beat should help satisfy some hedge funds/ big $ investors. I remain cautiously optimistic.
$EYPT could potentially come and test lows of the range within next week. I am looking to use this as a way to add to current position/ swing trade it to highs and lower cost basis on my long-position.
**On the other hand, falling below this range could cause knee jerk reaction/ selloff. I am going to be watching this carefully.
Tip # 7: When trading, It is very important to have a game plan. It is good practice to establish rules to your system (i.e. do you buy in increments?, at what point do you not like the investment anymore? how long are you willing to hold?).
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Disclosure: I am long EYPT. This is not a note to buy or sell. Please do your homework before investing.
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Check out current trade in TGTX =) #BULLISH
Sangamo's: Doom or Gloom ScenarioRecent data release may have changed SGMO's future outlook. Sangamo's long-term chart suggests a potential pullback to $4 is a possibility, but that was before a recent data release by the company for updated Phase 1/2 Results for SB-525 . This is an investigational Hemophilia-A gene therapy that showed sustained increased Factor VIII Levels with no reported bleeding events and no factor usage for as long as 24 weeks of follow-up.
Some traders do not believe in technical analysis, that's fine, but I think you may want to re-consider and hear me out on this one. Most didn't believe in Sangamo either (aren't I right Sangamo fan's)!!
What Does The Chart Say?
The long-term pattern (from day of IPO) suggests that if Sangamo Therapeutics stock price continued its trend, it was a possibility that pattern would repeat therefore potentially pulling back to December 2016 lows of around $3.67. Although this may still be a possibility, Sangamo caught wind in its sails on good data release recently, re-igniting investor optimism. I remain cautiously optimistic with Sangamo, so I went ahead and put together a short-term game plan just in case. Take a look at short list of what I will be watching for while I wait for further confirmation of long-term trend indication.
When making previous highs, Sangamo's stock price has entailed devastating 5-wave corrections, however:
The daily chart suggests that instead of a 5-wave correction that could potentially take SGMO to sub $4, SGMO's chart details an AB=BC corrective wave that could potentially mark the low of the long-term selloff.
AB=BC corrective waves are equal in length/or magnitude and on a Bullish correction would bounce off the 0.786 retracement level.
SGMO had a sharp bounce off this level in Feb 2019 and closed the day right above the 0.786 retracement zone. This is a very important level of support to close upon.
If this did not happen I would be on the other side of the trade waiting for a wash, down to $4. But from my experience there still may be fighting chance.
Short-term (from Feb 2019 to now) SGMO continues to make higher lows, this is #Bullish.
Although SGMO looks to have failed to break current resistance in the chart above,volume/optimism packed enough punch to test $11.85 which is a 1.618 Fibonacci extension (normal extensions range from 1.272 or 1.414).. . #Bullish
May not be exactly what a Long-term investor's of SGMO would want to hear, but a pullback around .618-.786 retracement (shown in green-zone on chart) would be a nice place to add for swing-trade up to earnings.
Previous earnings have brought 10-20% run-ups, but be careful to not get trapped in an earnings selloff.
If SGMO continues to make higher-lows, this could be a potential range to be looking for a swing position.
Breakout of this zone could mean big $$
Fall below blue trend line could mean devastation
my stop-loss will be set below blue trend-line.
Again, it's a long way down to $4 if trend continues to follow its Long-term pattern. Previous trends have issued 5-wave correction, peak to trough, the current pattern details an AB=BC harmonic pattern (outlined in #RED) please press play and zoom out to see what I am referring to.
Tip # 5 : A trend line in mathmatical terms means the line of best fit. When using them, make sure they touch as many points as possible on the chart.
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Disclosure: I do not own SGMO. I may buy/sell within the next 72 hours. This is not a note to buy or sell. Please do your homework before investing.
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Check out my some of my current trades.
THE WEEK AHEAD: M EARNINGS; OIH, XOP, ASHR, FXI, IBB PREMIUMI'm personally not doing a ton here with May opex a mere week away and June at 40 days until expiry, which is a smidge short of that 45 day wheel house I like to use for putting on plays. However, there is "stuff" to do if you're so inclined ... .
M (71/54) announces earnings on Wednesday before market open, so you'll want to shoot for a fill on whatever you do on Tuesday before market close. Pictured here is a fairly Plain Jane June 21st 20/25 directionally neutral short strangle paying 1.08 at the mid price with break evens of 18.92/26.08 and delta/theta metrics of -2.51/2.84. With May opex options having an implied of 88.9% versus June's 49.6%, we're looking at a fairly big volatility crush post-earnings ... .
Macy's has been hammered (it's within 5% of its 52-week low of 22.11), so I could also see the attractiveness of just going purely directional here. The June 21st 22 short put is paying 1.34 with a cost basis of 20.66 in shares if assigned (an 8% discount over current price). It pays an annualized dividend of 1.51 -- a 6.65% yield -- with the last quarterly divvy of .37 being distributed on 4/1 with a record date of 3/15 (i.e., you want to get into shares before 6/15 or so if you want to grab the next dividend).
On the exchange-traded fund front, here are the top five ordered by rank -- ASHR (74/32), GDXJ (51/28), FXI (50/23), IBB (46/26), and EFA (44/14), and the top five ordered by 30-day: OIH (37/34), XOP (29/33), ASHR (74/32), EWZ (25/32), and XBI (39/32). If I was going to be picky here, I'd probably wait for more ideal rank/30-day metrics (>50/>35), but ASHR approaches those metrics, even though it falls short of the 30-day 35% mark by a touch.
Here are some ASHR setups that might be worth looking at:
The June 21st 23/26/28/31 Iron Condor: It's almost so narrow in the body as to approach an iron fly, but it's the only way you'll get one-third the width of the wings out of a defined risk setup without going full-on fly. Paying 1.09 at the mid price (.54 at 50 max), it's got expected move break evens and a delta/theta metric of -3.20/1.27.
The June 21st 27 Short Straddle: Paying 2.20 at the mid price (.55 at 25 max), break evens at 24.80/29.20, delta/theta of -5.22/2.70.
Alternatively, there is the more liquid FXI (50/23). Although you'll have to put up with a lower 30-day, you can be more surgical since market makers have been kind enough to provide half-dollar strikes even in the monthly 40 days out.
The June 21st 37.5/40.5/43.5/46.5 pays 1.01 with break evens wide of the expected move at 39.49/44.51 and delta/theta numbers of -2.69/1.36.
The June 21st even-striked 40/44 short strangle pays 1.02 with more forgiving break evens at 38.98/45.02 and delta/theta figures of 2.06/2.58.
Time to Accumulate MylanShares of generic drug manufacturer Mylan has become very attractive, especially after today's overdone selloff.
While the company has some hurdles legally (what drug company doesn't?) and has some internal housekeeping to tend to, the shares are becoming too cheap to pass up. At the time of writing, shares are trading at $23.30, down about 17% on the heals of it's latest earnings report. I don't believe this sort of selling is warranted but it gives value investors an attractive entry point to begin accumulating shares.
It's blown thru supports, such as the 61.8% retracement (dark blue line) of a multi-year climb higher and some previous major resistance-turned-support levels (white dashed lines), which I've left on the chart for reference. The recent bounce gave some extensions to use, but today's selloff has pushed shares right past the first one, the 127.2% extension at $24.39. The next extension, the 141.4% at $21.75, is interesting because it coincides closely with the 78.6% retracement of the aforementioned multi-year swing higher at $20.63. Should those fail, we have one last extension to target, the 161.8% extension at $17.95.
In essence, I'm buying a starter position today and will be adding if it dips to the lower levels, which really should be viewed as a major support zone between $18 and $21.
With so many patents expiring for blockbuster drugs, Mylan will soon be able to pump out cheaper generics of them and they have an excellent track record of cranking out pills that are in demand.
It'll be important to watch the headlines on this one, as there are legitimate concerns, but with P/E's at 5.3x next years estimates and 5.0x 2020 estimates, this is just too cheap to ignore.
Be sure to have a game plan, including a stop loss appropriate to your risk tolerance (say, a back-to-back weekly close below $17.95, or a percentage you're comfortable with like -10%).
Once I see some sustained uptrend taking place, or a major change in my thesis, I'll let you know! Until then, happy trading!
Xbi trading plan.Biotech needs to hold $85.3(23.6% Fib retracement). Or next support will be 82.5 or 79.0
$XBI $SPY $LABD $LABU
IBB AND HEALTHCARE TO NOW RALLY .50% AND TWO LEGS DOWN ENDING Well the weakest link in the market has been the heathcare and ibb index .A time she is a changing maybe soon .Iam now net long ibb as of this post 40%
Pair Trading Idea XBI/IBBApplying some of the most popular indicators on the pair XBI/IBB shows an interesting pattern. While XBI has been clearly outperforming IBB since several weeks, a trend reversal seems to occur. IBB might catch up in the coming days and weeks.
under 86 shortoverpriced drugs, many of which are mostly ineffective. short this greedy hog $LABU $LABD $IBB
IBB Correction IncomingPsychology of a Market Cycle Cheat Sheet: goo.gl
IBB's chart is identical to the chart on the market psychology cheat sheet linked above.
IBB 5-wave cycle is over + Truncated 5th
Algorithms exit the market after extended 3rd waves, leaving the 5th with no volume nor liquidity, just as it's done for IBB .
Current Market Condition: Complacent. Just "cooling off for the next rally".
50%-60% Downside.
Biotech symmetry. Let the market settle down, and then go long.The biotech sector is really interesting when you dive down into the symmetry of the last few cycles. Early 2000s-2008 and 2016-2018 are mini rallies within the bigger wedge. If this pattern is to continues, you can look for entry around the end of 2020 when we bump up against the larger support line (around $3600), and expect to hit the resistance of the larger wedge ($10,000). There is also a lot of confluence around the $7500 mark so we could fall back to that after hitting 10k. This would repeat this pattern for the third time.
Near term, I have some shorts in this sector because I think many of this small biotech companies have been operating at negative cash flow with a ton of free credit. I don't expect massive gains on these shorts, but I will certainly be going long towards the end of 2020.
to low 50'slong term chart uptrend. massive move for biotech in this bull cycle. inflated drug prices... swan $IBB $LABD
