How to Find Legitimate Head and Shoulder PatternsHey Guys!
I just wanted to post a quick tutorial on how to find legitimate Head and Shoulder patterns.
In this lesson, I explain the 5 rules that a Head and Shoulders pattern must abide for it to be legitimate.
Here's the rules:
#1 Both necklines must be parallel.
#2 The main neckline cannot be broken out of surpassed before the right shoulder's price level is reached.
#3 The Head and Shoulders must be relatively flat.
#4 The top neckline can only be adjusted to a wick between the main pivot and the last correlating major pivot.
#5 The prior trend must be in the opposing direction. (which is up in the case of a "short" Head and Shoulders Pattern )
That's it! I hope this helps!
Have a great day!
Ken
Headandshouldersformation
NZDCAD SHORT MONTHLY TFMonthly: Price appears to be forming the right shoulder of a H&S pattern. After the previous bearish leg formed, price has failed to break the 0.382 level of the fib retracement. Since price hasn't broken the level, I expect price to go to the downside (support level) to complete the H&S pattern.
Weekly: A bearish candle just close. Price is currently bearish and I expect it to continue bearish.
Pls like & follow if you find this helpful. Thanks :)
Bitcoin Bermuda Triangle of Hurry Up and WaitHappy Sunday Traders,
Today with the week ending I was hoping that we would have a more definitive direction on which way bitcoin would be going but, as of right now we are sitting in the Bermuda Tringle of Hurry up and wait. Being that we are sitting on top of the strongest support zones that Bitcoin has ever made in a bull market we are in good shape. Yet, it is important to note that we are still sitting under important resistance areas as well and potentially retesting the neckline of a bearish pattern to boot.
When BTC Recently broke down from $44,816 BTC fell through the trend support that we created from the previous all time high of $65,400 to $52,400 forming the two resistance points and the support cluster pointed out between $47,400 and $45,500 Bitcoin fell into the area we are sitting in now. Which is an undecided area that needs to be broken to have a more telling future price action. If we are in fact going to react to the Bearish Head & Shoulder pattern displayed on the chart I would expect some bearish news to be the catalyst in doing so. If this does play out, I would be looking to see price head to the $30k area and I would be looking for a buying opportunity there. For all the "Gap Boys" there is also a large gap between roughly $33,000 and $34,500 on CME:BTC1! which sometimes get filled.
I placed two key points on this chart that we want to see Bitcoin get above in the near future to start getting out of the danger zone, the first being $45,536 and the second being $52,142. This would help to start invalidating the bearish set up, getting the price action out of the indecisive triangle zone we are sitting in now and get above the next resistance areas and hopefully create them as support.
I hope this helps you in your research, have a green week and I will see you in the next publication.
Savvy
Ascending H&S - ONEUSDI have been given a bit of clapback for the identification of this so I thought I would make a post.
Regardless of the RS being higher than the Head in the pattern, it can still be viewed as a H&S pattern, due to the predictability of the RS's downward move that will occur following its formation
Comment thoughts below
GBP/NZD Signal - GBP Retail Sales - 19 Nov 2021GBPNZD has formed a head and shoulders pattern prior to the GBP Retail Sales data today, and we are looking for continued downside on the pair. The 1H RSI remains at bearish levels, and price has recently rejected the left shoulder resistance. We are looking for downside towards the recent lows at the 1.8900 figure.
Head & Shoulders Pattern - Advanced AnalysisIn this series about chart patterns we previously discussed narrowing wedges patterns, explaining their identification rules, the measure rule associated with them, and various observations.
In this post, we will cover head & shoulders, inverse head & shoulders, and their complex counterpart. We will cover their identification rules, measure rules, and share some observations regarding these unique yet popular patterns.
The topics covered in this post are mostly based on the work of Bulkowski on chart patterns (1).
1. Head And Shoulders
The head and shoulder pattern also referred to as Head-and-Shoulders Tops by Bulkowski, is a bearish reversal structure commonly found in uptrends, characterized by a series of three maxima with the center maxima higher than the other two.
The first maxima is denoted as "Left Shoulder", the second maxima (the highest one in the formation) is denoted as "Head", and the third maxima is denoted as "Right Shoulder". The volume on a head and shoulders formation should be decreasing over time.
Bulkwoski points out that symmetry can play an important role in the validity of an H&S pattern.
1: H&S = Left Shoulder < Head > Right Shoulder
2: Left Shoulder ≈ Right Shoulder
The first and second maxima are followed by two minima, the line connecting these two-point form the "neckline". Price breaking the neckline downward is a bearish signal (note that a low volume breakout is not indicative of a potential failure).
Ongoing H&S on PGAL daily, waiting for the price to reach the neckline.
2. Inverted Head And Shoulders
The inverted head and shoulder pattern also referred to as Head-and-Shoulders Bottoms by Bulkowski, is a bullish reversal structure commonly found in downtrends, characterized by a series of three minima with the centre minima lower than the previous two.
The first minima is denoted as "Left Shoulder", the second minima (the lowest one in the formation) is denoted as "Head", and the third minima is denoted as "Right Shoulder". Like with a regular H&S, the volume should be decreasing over time.
We can see it's simply a regular H&S pattern, but inverted.
1: Inverted H&S = Left Shoulder > Head < Right Shoulder
2: Left Shoulder ≈ Right Shoulder
The first and second minima are followed by two maxima, the line connecting these two-point form the "neckline". Price breaking the neckline upward is a bullish signal (note that a low volume breakout is not indicative of a potential failure).
Inverted H&S on MTSI daily.
3. Complex Variations
Bulkowski presents two complex variations to the H&S and inverted H&S patterns. These complex variations are similar to the regular ones but have the particularity of having multiple shoulders on each side or multiple heads.
Inverted complex H&S on ARKW daily.
4. Measure Rule
The measure rule for head and shoulders formations allows the determination for the level of taking profits and stop losses after a breakout of the neckline.
In the case of a regular H&S, the take profit should be set at the breakout point minus the height between the formation head value and the neckline value where the head is located.
The same applies to inverted H&S, the take profit should be set at the breakout point plus the height between the formation neckline value where the head is located and the formation head value.
In the case of a complex dual-head H&S formation, the head value that should be selected is the lowest one.
5. Observations
Head and shoulders formations can sometimes be encountered within diamonds formations.
Osler identifies head-and-shoulders trading as a type of noise trading and points out that the immediate price effect of head-and-shoulders trades disappears slowly but completely over the subsequent two weeks (2).
Caginalp and Balevonich found that head and shoulders patterns can be obtained as a consequence of a single group of investors with identical motivations and assessment of the value of the financial instrument (3).
7. References
(1) Bulkowski, T. N. (2021). Encyclopedia of chart patterns. John Wiley & Sons.
(2) Osler, C. (1998). Identifying Noise Traders: The Head-and-Shoulders Pattern in U.S. Equities. Federal Reserve Bank of New York Research Paper Series.
(3) Caginalp, G., & Balevonich, D. (2003). A Theoretical Foundation for Technical Analysis. Capital Markets: Market Microstructure eJournal.
DKNG Potential Head and Shoulders"
A. A strong rally, climaxing a more or less extensive advance, on which trading volume becomes very heavy, followed by a minor recession on which volume runs considerable less than it did during the days of rise and at the Top. This is the 'left shoulder.'
B. Another high=volume advance which reaches a higher level than the top of the left shoulder, and then another reaction on less volume which takes prices down to somewhere near the bottom level of the preceding recession, somewhat lower perhaps or somewhat higher, but, in any case, below the top of the left shoulder. this is the 'Head.'
C. A third rally, but this time on decidedly less volume than accompanied the formation of either the left shoulder or the head, which fails to reach the height of the head before another decline sets in. This is the 'right shoulder.'
D. Finally, decline of prices in this third recession down through a line (the 'neckline') drawn across the Bottoms of the reactions between the left shoulder and head, and the head and right shoulder, respectively...
"
Technical Analysis of Stock Trends / Robert D Edwards, John Magee, W.H.C
Bassetti. -- 9th ed. (59)
A near textbook example of an incomplete head and shoulders pattern, which indicates a major trend reversal.
The pattern is not yet confirmed.
One issue is the strong reaction off the neckline, shaded in red, but the overall descending volume is a strong indication.
An additional technical indicator is the break and hold below the 50D EMA
This is an analysis only, not investment advice.
BTCUSD - H4 - H & S IN PROGRESS !This time the clouds did not hold ...
An Head and Shoulder formation is in progress and if this is confirmed, the technical target would be @ 51'436.
Therefore, price action over the coming hours will be, once again, very important to look at carefully.
Indeed, only a clear recovery above the clouds (around 63'000, already mentioned in my previous analysis !) would neutralise this ongoing bearish mode.
Intermediate support levels @ 56'525, 53'292 ahead of the 61.8% Fib ret @ 50'058 ( 39'590-66994 rally)
RSI is again below 50.
Looking briefly at the daily picture, after having failed to upside breakout the Tenkan-Sen, we can see a "BEARISH ENGULFING PATTERN" triggered yesterday and in this time frame, in order, also to stabilise and neutralise,
the ongoing downside risk, we need to see a daily closing above 61'700 which would, at least, trigger a piercing line !
On the downside, a daily closing below the Mid Bollinger Band (currently @ 59'000) would put an additionnal selling pressure and would open the door for the levels previously mentioned.
Interesting to note that the 53'292-50'058 coincides with the daily support clouds area.
On shorter time frame (H1), we are currently seeing a "corrective* recovery, having in focus 61'330, 61791 ahead of 62'253, the latter coinciding roughly with the secondary downtrend line resistance in this H1 time frame.
should we go higher then the 63'000, as previously mentioned would be the pivot level to look at very carefully.
Have a nice trading day.
Take care
Ironman8848
Crab Complete & Potential H&SUK100 Crab complete with potential double top (Not confirmed yet though until neckline is broken)
I have entered early just based on LTF analysis, so that has made this trade a little riskier, but the probability of this falling are greater than rising so for me it was worth the risk, if hit's SL we just get back in a little higher and ride the wave down bringing all that 💰back in!
Whats your thoughts?
Ethereum: A clear path ahead for the end of 2021Head & Shoulders Explained
The Head & Shoulders Pattern & Inverse Head & Shoulders Patterns are quite common on Bitcoin and have had great results on the higher timeframe charts.
Here are the main characteristics:
• VOLUME MIMICS PATTERN
• 3 PEAKS, LEFT & RIGHT SIMILAR HEIGHT
• TRIANGULAR IN APPEARANCE
• FOUND AFTER UPTREND
• HIGH SUCCESS RATE
• CAN BE SLANTED
Price forms 3 distinct peaks after a strong uptrend, the left and right peak should have a similar height (shoulders), the middle peak (head) has to be the highest or this can not be a HS pattern . They should seem triangular in appearance but as long as it fits the main characteristics can still be a valid pattern.
The right shoulder should form a lower high which is a early sign of trend change, this is entry A, with entry B being the bearish retest of of the “neckline” (marked on chart #2). The idea is to gain an early entry on the pattern at point A to maximise profits and reduce risk. Once price moves above the middle "peak" it is likely that the pattern is not valid anymore so this allows us to get a tight stop loss upon entry. We measure the height of the pattern and add it to the breakout level for a maximum possible price target.
Volume should also paint the same pattern with the 3 peaks, strong volume on breakout increases success rate.
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What is General Pattern Failure?
General Pattern Failure occurs when a chart pattern breaks out, fails to hit target, quickly reverses then rejects off that same breakout level back inside the pattern continuing in the opposite direction of the breakout.
Pictured above in the original post on the left (its quite small but zoomed out to get the bigger picture) is a normal breakout on a Head And Shoulders Pattern. Note how it matches the first example (top left, "Normal Breakout").
General pattern failure can also be considered a Liquidity Grab or can be referred to as a “Fake Out” also when it happens more rapidly after the original pattern breakout.
In this example (top right as the example, pointing to the live chart at bottom right) it has come back up to the Head & Shoulders pattern after a long extended period of time, this doesn't mean the failure still cannot occur.
Once price gets back inside the pattern chances of higher prices are more probable.
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Learning to trade patterns such as these can provide great opportunities if you understand price action and how to identify the key areas of the pattern that other traders and investors may be focusing on too, these areas become important psychological levels on the chart.
If you found the idea insightful please share, like or comment, Thank you!
EURAUD: Head & Shoulders Monster!!!WOW! Look at the size of that head and shoulders pattern.
Retail traders will be all over this! This calls for caution.
I won't be trading this method how retail trade it, I will be waiting for the manipulation to occur before I introduce my sell positions.
Selling the breakout could be catastrophic because we have an order block resting below the region.
Will you be trading the retail method or the smart money method?
Leave a comment and/or message us on how we can improve and provide better content, we are open to suggestions to create a better experience for you!
Keep in mind that the analysis provided is not 100% accurate and that you can never be certain of the markets. This information given is not financial advice, always do your own research.
Thank you for reading,
Cheers to many pips!
Possible Head and Shoulders Pattern For XAUUSD, the market has stopped for now. Until it resumes back a few hours later, I thought to share an interesting thing I just picked up.
We have a Head and Shoulder Pattern that has formed on XAUUSD (2H). If that is the case, go short and set your T/P at 1765 regions.
Massive News For BITCOIN Hodler...BTC is performing a huge inverse HEAD & Shoulder pattern in 1D time frame. According to my previous analysis BTC has been unable to broken a very important resistance line. However this inverse H&S pattern will be perform well that resistance can be broken easily and we can see a huge pump in BTC within few weeks. So traders very carefully about this trend line and inverse H&S. It it will be perform BTC exactly hit $85,000.
#DoYourOwnResearch#
#IamNotaFinancialAdvisor#
Thank You !
FSLY Fastly Head and Shoulders Price TargetThe head and shoulders pattern is one of the most reliable trend reversal patterns.
The distance from the neckline to the head is the same for the retracement from the neckline to the bottom.
In this case, using Renko candles to understand better the H&S chart pattern, the price target is 31usd.
HEAD AND SHOULDER IS THAT YOU??Folks,
Be aware of a possible head and shoulders pattern in the Litecoin/USDT pair on the 4 hour chart.
The first breakdown of the neckline has got rejected by the bulls.. But simply if it breaks be aware of prices fall back at the horizontal line drawn..
How do you target this?
You take the highest price at the head formation and calculate the % it falls back to the neckline.
Than
You take the same % percentage from the neckline down.. and that is your target price when the neckline breaks and it is a confirmed head and shoulders pattern.
There is a lot of symmetrical in trading...
What is Head and Shoulders Pattern?Introducing series topics of trading systems we gonna do on Tradingview and hope readers can learn something from our educational content. Three main systems are the followings:
1)Pattern recognition
2)Trending following
3)Counter trend
Start with pattern recognition, and we will mainly cover two main categories of price patterns: Major Reversal patterns and continuation patterns.
Then introduce today’s educational content: H&S pattern , which is probably the most reliable and best known of all major reversal patterns. Most of the other reversal patterns are just variations of H&S.
Volume Factor: H&S Pattern is relatively easy to recognize but many people ignore the importance of volume: The head should take place on lighter volume than the left shoulder which indicates a diminishing buying power. And volume should also expand on the breaking of the neckline to confirm the pattern.
Price Target: :Also the price target is not guaranteed to be the height of pattern, height may only be a minimum target. Also when we take other factors into consideration such as pivot support area, we need to adjust our price target rather than brainlessly using the height of the pattern as price projection.
Coming back to the topic Bitcoin chart as of today. Bitcoin is also forming the same pattern on a larger time frame.
What do you think, will Bitcoin hold the neckline and rebounce above the right shoulder to form a new bullish trend or will Bitcoin break the neckline with volume confirmed to aim for the next pivot support (also the previous breakout level) around 20,000?
Follow us for more education content on Technical Analysis.
Next Topic Preview: The Inverse H&S pattern